live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Bracket Busters - Blog

Here are Forecasts of what the RPI/Records will be on Monday, February 4, 2013 for all 122 BracketBuster teams.

How does the RPI Forecast work?

Some numbers (e.g., 1-50 W-L, 51-100 W-L, etc.) are rounded and may not sum up to totals.

EXPECTED RPI RANK is the best estimate for an individual team of its end-of-season RPI Rank. Because they are expectations, they do not have to be 1, 2, 3, etc.
OVERALL is the one most likely overall outcome for all Division 1 teams if I am forced to rank teams 1, 2, 3, etc. It corresponds to the RPI Forecast number column and may not be the same as ranking the Expected RPI Rank column. Through games of Feb 3, 2013.


Home Teams:

ExpectedRPISOSSOS RankCurrentProjected1-2526-5051-100101-200200+Non Conf ForecastsCurrentOver-
OverallRPI RankTeamConfForecastForecastForecastW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LRPISOSRPIRatedt-stat
1818.0BelmontOVC0.62970.55646317-417-40-11-15-05-26-07-4164180.0NaN
2727.0Wichita St.MVC0.61050.53568819-419-40-03-04-37-15-011-11495270.0NaN
5151.0Indiana St.MVC0.58590.56025513-813-81-12-32-03-35-16-44526510.0NaN
5252.0AkronMAC0.58580.504714516-416-40-01-22-16-07-18-469112520.0NaN
5858.0St. Mary'sWCC0.57960.497516218-418-40-11-01-19-27-010-376215580.0NaN
9191.0Western MichiganMAC0.54690.490617513-713-70-20-01-24-28-17-588189910.0NaN
9393.0ValparaisoHorz0.54430.470423516-616-60-10-01-26-39-09-4103271930.0NaN
9494.0Northern IowaMVC0.54400.57352911-1111-110-21-31-45-24-06-59237940.0NaN
9898.0Tennessee St.OVC0.54210.524511011-1011-100-20-30-24-17-24-712446980.0NaN
102102.0Oral RobertsSlnd0.53920.507913513-813-80-30-11-41-011-04-785121020.0NaN
109109.0Long Beach St.BW0.53570.506413911-811-80-30-20-03-28-12-7145181090.0NaN
112112.0VermontAE0.53420.476621914-714-70-10-02-04-58-17-51472321120.0NaN
116116.0DavidsonSC0.53240.474122714-714-70-30-02-12-110-24-693201160.0NaN
117117.0Murray St.OVC0.53200.460226414-514-50-10-01-23-210-07-3641401170.0NaN
118118.0NiagaraMAAC0.53170.500215614-914-90-00-12-26-36-34-72461721180.0NaN
123123.0Illinois ChicagoHorz0.52830.505114313-913-91-10-02-25-55-18-4631461230.0NaN
124124.0Utah St.WAC0.52680.462825515-515-50-00-11-23-211-08-1973031240.0NaN
133133.0Western IllinoisSum0.52250.432231615-515-50-00-01-13-311-16-31393091330.0NaN
137137.0DrakeMVC0.52010.53918210-1110-110-01-31-54-14-25-51591151370.0NaN
141141.0FairfieldMAAC0.51570.480420713-1013-100-00-01-25-87-08-41313171410.0NaN
147147.0OaklandSum0.51300.51731199-139-130-10-11-81-17-23-9133291470.0NaN
151151.0Texas ArlingtonWAC0.51150.499115910-910-90-10-31-11-38-15-41562441510.0NaN
152152.0Youngstown St.Horz0.51110.487918810-910-90-00-01-45-44-15-51962851520.0NaN
156156.0Wright St.Horz0.50790.463225413-813-80-10-01-25-37-28-41743381560.0NaN
157157.0College of CharlestonSC0.50790.446829016-616-60-11-00-15-110-38-3891661570.0NaN
164164.0NC AshevilleBSth0.50060.482320310-1010-100-20-01-31-28-33-8152251640.0NaN
179179.0RiderMAAC0.49270.484519812-1212-120-00-11-23-88-15-71871691790.0NaN
180180.0ToledoMAC0.49260.47612209-109-100-10-00-62-27-14-72562791800.0NaN
191191.0Loyola ChicagoHorz0.48700.456227312-912-90-10-01-33-58-09-31423361910.0NaN
201201.0Cal PolyBW0.47550.48761907-117-110-01-00-32-54-32-62251302010.0NaN
207207.0UC Santa BarbaraBW0.47040.5325955-145-140-00-11-42-62-32-7144102070.0NaN
208208.0HawaiiBW0.47010.458426812-912-90-20-20-01-311-25-52552042080.0NaN
220220.0Southern IllinoisMVC0.46420.49611667-147-140-00-21-22-84-26-41643142200.0NaN
223223.0BuffaloMAC0.46380.50971306-146-140-00-00-62-64-23-92331412230.0NaN
225225.0Eastern MichiganMAC0.46210.50321507-117-110-20-20-11-46-24-7177452250.0NaN
245245.0Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.45070.46042629-139-130-20-20-20-39-46-61882702450.0NaN
249249.0UC DavisBW0.44790.45832698-128-120-00-10-10-68-44-72482622490.0NaN
253253.0WinthropBSth0.44500.46272567-117-110-10-11-10-26-63-6170742530.0NaN
257257.0Tennessee TechOVC0.44130.47482256-146-140-20-10-21-45-54-62452982570.0NaN
258258.0CampbellBSth0.44030.45072848-128-120-20-10-11-27-63-82321042580.0NaN
280280.0High PointBSth0.42700.41323409-109-100-00-00-40-39-33-72992952800.0NaN
281281.0SienaMAAC0.42680.47932106-166-160-00-20-11-95-42-92962242810.0NaN
282282.0Northern IllinoisMAC0.42620.49331724-154-150-00-10-51-53-41-103382462820.0NaN
288288.0Texas San AntonioWAC0.42260.47312285-165-160-00-30-20-55-64-62533302880.0NaN
289289.0Tennessee MartinOVC0.42050.49721644-164-160-20-11-20-63-51-93201812890.0NaN
295295.0Southern UtahBSky0.41780.44882857-127-120-10-00-00-67-50-73281372950.0NaN
300300.0Montana St.BSky0.41680.40333438-108-100-00-00-11-37-61-53433163000.0NaN
301301.0Western CarolinaSC0.41660.43953066-146-140-00-30-20-46-51-93122063010.0NaN
302302.0MaristMAAC0.41620.48701925-185-180-00-00-41-94-53-82471583020.0NaN
303303.0Central ArkansasSlnd0.41600.42673267-117-110-00-10-30-17-63-52342473030.0NaN
304304.0Nebraska OmahaSum0.41540.44283007-167-160-00-20-30-57-62-93172813040.0NaN
309309.0IUPU Fort WayneSum0.40930.42373288-148-140-00-10-30-38-75-72823443090.0NaN
310310.0IUPUISum0.40800.48581954-194-190-20-00-50-64-63-92501543100.0NaN
316316.0LamarSlnd0.39450.49641652-202-200-10-10-60-42-82-102761443160.0NaN
318318.0HamptonMEAC0.39300.40183447-137-130-00-00-20-27-93-103323023180.0NaN
322322.0Eastern WashingtonBSky0.39000.44592936-166-160-00-00-20-56-92-83112543220.0NaN
331331.0Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.38010.47832151-171-170-10-00-30-51-80-9308763310.0NaN
335335.0Portland St.BSky0.37300.45252813-143-140-00-20-00-43-80-53221173350.0NaN
340340.0LibertyBSth0.36790.43003224-164-160-00-20-20-34-91-103292593400.0NaN
342342.0Idaho St.BSky0.36620.43413143-173-170-00-10-00-63-100-83361853420.0NaN
343343.0PresbyterianBSth0.35970.44183032-182-180-00-20-10-62-90-113402083430.0NaN

Road Teams:

ExpectedRPISOSSOS RankCurrentProjected1-2526-5051-100101-200200+Non Conf ForecastsCurrentOver-
OverallRPI RankTeamConfForecastForecastForecastW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LRPISOSRPIRatedt-stat
2929.0CreightonMVC0.60910.523511120-320-30-01-18-15-16-011-121109290.0NaN
6464.0North Dakota St.Sum0.57270.485219616-516-50-20-01-16-29-07-32990640.0NaN
6666.0South Dakota St.Sum0.57250.500615415-615-61-20-02-24-08-26-43234660.0NaN
7272.0DetroitHorz0.56640.54457613-813-80-20-11-29-23-16-55530720.0NaN
8282.0Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.55080.426132714-214-21-00-01-23-09-05-128183820.0NaN
8383.0Eastern KentuckyOVC0.55050.478621416-616-60-20-11-16-09-29-3109307830.0NaN
9090.0OhioMAC0.54690.488818415-615-60-10-22-15-18-19-5154218900.0NaN
9797.0IonaMAAC0.54230.503115114-914-90-00-10-29-45-26-5106111970.0NaN
100100.0Northwestern St.Slnd0.54010.488718510-610-60-11-01-10-38-12-46571000.0NaN
101101.0Loyola MDMAAC0.53970.493417116-816-80-00-10-49-37-08-4902021010.0NaN
106106.0DenverWAC0.53670.499515813-813-80-10-20-54-09-04-62111021060.0NaN
108108.0MontanaBSky0.53590.443229814-414-40-10-10-13-111-02-4137311080.0NaN
110110.0CanisiusMAAC0.53510.490117815-815-80-20-02-35-28-17-4681481100.0NaN
115115.0PacificBW0.53300.520711811-811-80-10-02-32-37-14-610891150.0NaN
126126.0Savannah St.MEAC0.52620.505514210-910-90-30-10-12-48-04-88731260.0NaN
129129.0EvansvilleMVC0.52490.521111712-1012-100-21-22-12-37-26-51691601290.0NaN
136136.0Weber St.BSky0.52130.435431013-513-50-00-10-02-211-23-31321011360.0NaN
144144.0Illinois St.MVC0.51420.510712613-1013-100-10-22-44-27-19-3942261440.0NaN
145145.0Jacksonville St.OVC0.51410.466724313-713-70-20-10-42-011-06-31022751450.0NaN
155155.0Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.50940.504514611-1111-111-00-11-25-54-35-72372301550.0NaN
160160.0Morehead St.OVC0.50500.52891009-139-130-20-22-41-36-24-8168361600.0NaN
161161.0BradleyMVC0.50300.487918713-1013-100-10-30-33-210-18-42133311610.0NaN
171171.0AlbanyAE0.49700.434231317-717-70-10-01-13-413-111-31273181710.0NaN
173173.0IdahoWAC0.49610.52821018-128-120-10-10-32-66-13-6176481730.0NaN
183183.0Charleston SouthernBSth0.49050.45812709-79-70-10-10-21-18-22-6203511830.0NaN
185185.0UC IrvineBW0.48940.475922110-1110-110-10-20-03-47-44-71571051850.0NaN
187187.0Cleveland St.Horz0.48850.50601418-128-120-20-01-23-74-15-61912121870.0NaN
192192.0Kent St.MAC0.48570.482520211-1011-100-00-01-64-26-28-51411901920.0NaN
202202.0Missouri St.MVC0.47200.5626485-165-160-00-50-44-51-20-10310802020.0NaN
203203.0Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.47150.460326310-1110-110-00-21-13-36-57-3531502030.0NaN
214214.0Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.46700.49891606-126-120-20-20-30-26-30-8295382140.0NaN
218218.0Loyola MarymountWCC0.46570.50481447-127-120-10-21-20-66-16-52052692180.0NaN
228228.0South DakotaSum0.45870.51331216-156-150-20-01-53-32-52-8231572280.0NaN
238238.0Miami OHMAC0.45390.48152047-127-120-20-10-21-36-44-71991362380.0NaN
239239.0Sam Houston St.Slnd0.45380.42303309-99-90-10-10-11-38-34-51842292390.0NaN
240240.0Gardner WebbBSth0.45310.421633210-1010-100-00-20-13-17-65-62513232400.0NaN
244244.0Central MichiganMAC0.45140.47312298-128-120-10-00-43-35-46-61281322440.0NaN
248248.0Northern ArizonaBSky0.44800.48371997-147-140-30-20-00-37-63-7121162480.0NaN
250250.0Cal St. FullertonBW0.44740.43993049-119-110-00-00-21-48-55-52283332500.0NaN
251251.0McNeese St.Slnd0.44710.50701375-125-120-01-20-40-24-43-475272510.0NaN
256256.0ManhattanMAAC0.44150.47162327-157-150-10-00-31-76-42-82711672560.0NaN
260260.0Sacramento St.BSky0.43820.41533398-98-90-00-00-11-27-63-32022872600.0NaN
262262.0Nicholls St.Slnd0.43760.46942376-146-140-10-11-20-55-51-93332432620.0NaN
264264.0Missouri Kansas CitySum0.43710.50291525-185-180-30-10-41-44-62-102701132640.0NaN
270270.0Coastal CarolinaBSth0.43400.44642927-107-100-00-11-01-55-42-6238552700.0NaN
271271.0Texas St.WAC0.43400.48971816-166-160-00-10-41-85-33-83162762710.0NaN
272272.0SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.43260.46732426-116-110-00-10-21-45-42-62831912720.0NaN
274274.0Ball St.MAC0.43190.45772727-127-120-20-00-21-46-45-62682732740.0NaN
279279.0North DakotaBSky0.42810.45142837-127-120-10-00-30-37-51-62851002790.0NaN
284284.0Morgan St.MEAC0.42490.42703256-126-120-00-00-10-76-43-82923252840.0NaN
285285.0Bowling GreenMAC0.42380.48282006-136-130-10-01-32-43-53-82871822850.0NaN
291291.0St. Peter'sMAAC0.41970.45962667-157-150-00-02-12-83-65-52142672910.0NaN
296296.0Eastern IllinoisOVC0.41780.46862396-166-160-00-00-40-86-43-92892232960.0NaN
297297.0Virginia Military InstBSth0.41750.40603427-107-100-00-00-11-36-62-73243242970.0NaN
299299.0RadfordBSth0.41690.43283157-137-130-00-00-30-57-53-82912992990.0NaN
313313.0Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.40390.50401473-183-180-00-10-42-101-32-103262453130.0NaN
317317.0The CitadelSC0.39410.45372784-154-150-00-00-10-84-61-73252103170.0NaN
321321.0Northern ColoradoBSky0.39040.44842864-144-140-10-10-20-34-70-6315873210.0NaN
329329.0UC RiversideBW0.38300.46202603-163-160-00-00-11-82-71-83442903290.0NaN
337337.0Austin PeayOVC0.37180.45542753-183-180-00-10-01-82-92-103272663370.0NaN
344344.0LongwoodBSth0.35470.45532761-201-200-00-30-00-71-101-113051553440.0NaN

Thanks to Ken Pomeroy for the schedules data and Jeff Sagarin for the use of "PREDICTOR" to generate probabilities.
Please email any comments, questions or suggestions to: rpiforecast@gmail.com