live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog

Below are summary statistics for end-of-season RPI Ranks using 10,000 simulations of all future games.

Using the probability of winning for each team and each future game, 10,000 simulated seasons are run, the resulting RPIs are sorted and ranks are assigned. Expected Rank is the mean from these simulations. All 10,000 Ranks are presented for each team in histograms found by clicking on the team name. You can think of the min and max as the best and worst case scenarios for the team.
How does the RPI Forecast work?

Some numbers (e.g., 1-50 W-L, 51-100 W-L, etc.) are rounded and may not sum up to totals.

EXPECTED RPI RANK is the best estimate for an individual team of its end-of-season RPI Rank. Because they are expectations, they do not have to be 1, 2, 3, etc.
OVERALL is the one most likely overall outcome for all Division 1 teams if I am forced to rank teams 1, 2, 3, etc. It corresponds to the RPI Forecast number column and may not be the same as ranking the Expected RPI Rank column.

Tweet
Through games of Mar 11, 2018.

Expected Standard 2.5th10th25th 75th90th97.5th
RankTeamConfDeviation Min%ile%ile%ilemedian%ile%ile%ilemax
260.0Abilene ChristianSlnd0.0260260260260260260260260260
253.0Air ForceMWC0.0253253253253253253253253253
227.0AkronMAC0.0227227227227227227227227227
42.0AlabamaSEC0.0424242424242424242
350.0Alabama A&MSWAC0.0350350350350350350350350350
333.0Alabama St.SWAC0.0333333333333333333333333333
142.0AlbanyAE0.0142142142142142142142142142
348.0Alcorn St.SWAC0.0348348348348348348348348348
336.0AmericanPat0.0336336336336336336336336336
250.0Appalachian St.SB0.0250250250250250250250250250
13.0ArizonaP120.0131313131313131313
66.0Arizona St.P120.0666666666666666666
30.0ArkansasSEC0.0303030303030303030
307.0Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.0307307307307307307307307307
291.0Arkansas St.SB0.0291291291291291291291291291
280.0ArmyPat0.0280280280280280280280280280
15.0AuburnSEC0.0151515151515151515
164.0Austin PeayOVC0.0164164164164164164164164164
126.0Ball St.MAC0.0126126126126126126126126126
68.0BaylorB120.0686868686868686868
81.0BelmontOVC0.0818181818181818181
288.0Bethune CookmanMEAC0.0288288288288288288288288288
320.0BinghamtonAE0.0320320320320320320320320320
50.0Boise St.MWC0.0505050505050505050
96.0Boston CollegeACC0.0969696969696969696
212.0Boston UniversityPat0.0212212212212212212212212212
193.0Bowling GreenMAC0.0193193193193193193193193193
105.0BradleyMVC0.0105105105105105105105105105
298.0BrownIvy0.0298298298298298298298298298
341.0BryantNEC0.0341341341341341341341341341
Expected Standard 2.5th10th25th 75th90th97.5th
RankTeamConfDeviation Min%ile%ile%ilemedian%ile%ile%ilemax
80.0BucknellPat0.0808080808080808080
25.0BuffaloMAC0.0252525252525252525
41.0ButlerBE0.0414141414141414141
67.0BYUWCC0.0676767676767676767
305.0Cal PolyBW0.0305305305305305305305305305
220.0Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.0220220220220220220220220220
131.0Cal St. FullertonBW0.0131131131131131131131131131
340.0Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.0340340340340340340340340340
216.0CaliforniaP120.0216216216216216216216216216
267.0CampbellBSth0.0267267267267267267267267267
124.0CanisiusMAAC0.0124124124124124124124124124
223.0Central ArkansasSlnd0.0223223223223223223223223223
263.0Central ConnecticutNEC0.0263263263263263263263263263
167.0Central MichiganMAC0.0167167167167167167167167167
261.0Charleston SouthernBSth0.0261261261261261261261261261
323.0CharlotteCUSA0.0323323323323323323323323323
304.0ChattanoogaSC0.0304304304304304304304304304
335.0Chicago St.WAC0.0335335335335335335335335335
6.0CincinnatiAmer0.0666666666
11.0ClemsonACC0.0111111111111111111
282.0Cleveland St.Horz0.0282282282282282282282282282
246.0Coastal CarolinaSB0.0246246246246246246246246246
185.0ColgatePat0.0185185185185185185185185185
57.0College of CharlestonCAA0.0575757575757575757
82.0ColoradoP120.0828282828282828282
234.0Colorado St.MWC0.0234234234234234234234234234
316.0ColumbiaIvy0.0316316316316316316316316316
123.0ConnecticutAmer0.0123123123123123123123123123
343.0Coppin St.MEAC0.0343343343343343343343343343
248.0CornellIvy0.0248248248248248248248248248
Expected Standard 2.5th10th25th 75th90th97.5th
RankTeamConfDeviation Min%ile%ile%ilemedian%ile%ile%ilemax
44.0CreightonBE0.0444444444444444444
334.0DartmouthIvy0.0334334334334334334334334334
47.0DavidsonA100.0474747474747474747
146.0DaytonA100.0146146146146146146146146146
233.0DelawareCAA0.0233233233233233233233233233
351.0Delaware St.MEAC0.0351351351351351351351351351
224.0DenverSum0.0224224224224224224224224224
186.0DePaulBE0.0186186186186186186186186186
318.0DetroitHorz0.0318318318318318318318318318
166.0DrakeMVC0.0166166166166166166166166166
242.0DrexelCAA0.0242242242242242242242242242
7.0DukeACC0.0777777777
259.0DuquesneA100.0259259259259259259259259259
274.0East CarolinaAmer0.0274274274274274274274274274
93.0East Tennessee St.SC0.0939393939393939393
262.0Eastern IllinoisOVC0.0262262262262262262262262262
271.0Eastern KentuckyOVC0.0271271271271271271271271271
116.0Eastern MichiganMAC0.0116116116116116116116116116
122.0Eastern WashingtonBSky0.0122122122122122122122122122
205.0ElonCAA0.0205205205205205205205205205
151.0EvansvilleMVC0.0151151151151151151151151151
180.0FairfieldMAAC0.0180180180180180180180180180
254.0Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.0254254254254254254254254254
295.0FIUCUSA0.0295295295295295295295295295
46.0FloridaSEC0.0464646464646464646
332.0Florida A&MMEAC0.0332332332332332332332332332
275.0Florida AtlanticCUSA0.0275275275275275275275275275
172.0Florida Gulf CoastASun0.0172172172172172172172172172
54.0Florida St.ACC0.0545454545454545454
290.0FordhamA100.0290290290290290290290290290
Expected Standard 2.5th10th25th 75th90th97.5th
RankTeamConfDeviation Min%ile%ile%ilemedian%ile%ile%ilemax
209.0Fort WayneSum0.0209209209209209209209209209
103.0Fresno St.MWC0.0103103103103103103103103103
97.0FurmanSC0.0979797979797979797
244.0Gardner WebbBSth0.0244244244244244244244244244
201.0George MasonA100.0201201201201201201201201201
195.0George WashingtonA100.0195195195195195195195195195
169.0GeorgetownBE0.0169169169169169169169169169
79.0GeorgiaSEC0.0797979797979797979
140.0Georgia SouthernSB0.0140140140140140140140140140
120.0Georgia St.SB0.0120120120120120120120120120
161.0Georgia TechACC0.0161161161161161161161161161
21.0GonzagaWCC0.0212121212121212121
249.0Grambling St.SWAC0.0249249249249249249249249249
156.0Grand CanyonWAC0.0156156156156156156156156156
303.0Green BayHorz0.0303303303303303303303303303
237.0HamptonMEAC0.0237237237237237237237237237
198.0HartfordAE0.0198198198198198198198198198
117.0HarvardIvy0.0117117117117117117117117117
213.0HawaiiBW0.0213213213213213213213213213
273.0High PointBSth0.0273273273273273273273273273
121.0HofstraCAA0.0121121121121121121121121121
265.0Holy CrossPat0.0265265265265265265265265265
18.0HoustonAmer0.0181818181818181818
345.0Houston BaptistSlnd0.0345345345345345345345345345
339.0HowardMEAC0.0339339339339339339339339339
133.0IdahoBSky0.0133133133133133133133133133
268.0Idaho St.BSky0.0268268268268268268268268268
181.0IllinoisB100.0181181181181181181181181181
236.0Illinois ChicagoHorz0.0236236236236236236236236236
85.0Illinois St.MVC0.0858585858585858585
Expected Standard 2.5th10th25th 75th90th97.5th
RankTeamConfDeviation Min%ile%ile%ilemedian%ile%ile%ilemax
347.0Incarnate WordSlnd0.0347347347347347347347347347
125.0IndianaB100.0125125125125125125125125125
184.0Indiana St.MVC0.0184184184184184184184184184
107.0IonaMAAC0.0107107107107107107107107107
157.0IowaB100.0157157157157157157157157157
144.0Iowa St.B120.0144144144144144144144144144
294.0IUPUIHorz0.0294294294294294294294294294
330.0Jackson St.SWAC0.0330330330330330330330330330
286.0JacksonvilleASun0.0286286286286286286286286286
149.0Jacksonville St.OVC0.0149149149149149149149149149
272.0James MadisonCAA0.0272272272272272272272272272
5.0KansasB120.0555555555
53.0Kansas St.B120.0535353535353535353
301.0Kennesaw St.ASun0.0301301301301301301301301301
154.0Kent St.MAC0.0154154154154154154154154154
10.0KentuckySEC0.0101010101010101010
202.0La SalleA100.0202202202202202202202202202
311.0LafayettePat0.0311311311311311311311311311
230.0LamarSlnd0.0230230230230230230230230230
214.0LehighPat0.0214214214214214214214214214
211.0LibertyBSth0.0211211211211211211211211211
101.0LipscombASun0.0101101101101101101101101101
308.0Little RockSB0.0308308308308308308308308308
232.0LIU BrooklynNEC0.0232232232232232232232232232
191.0Long Beach St.BW0.0191191191191191191191191191
337.0LongwoodBSth0.0337337337337337337337337337
63.0Louisiana LafayetteSB0.0636363636363636363
219.0Louisiana MonroeSB0.0219219219219219219219219219
192.0Louisiana TechCUSA0.0192192192192192192192192192
38.0LouisvilleACC0.0383838383838383838
Expected Standard 2.5th10th25th 75th90th97.5th
RankTeamConfDeviation Min%ile%ile%ilemedian%ile%ile%ilemax
22.0Loyola ChicagoMVC0.0222222222222222222
258.0Loyola MarymountWCC0.0258258258258258258258258258
322.0Loyola MDPat0.0322322322322322322322322322
95.0LSUSEC0.0959595959595959595
338.0MaineAE0.0338338338338338338338338338
228.0ManhattanMAAC0.0228228228228228228228228228
324.0MaristMAAC0.0324324324324324324324324324
58.0MarquetteBE0.0585858585858585858
87.0MarshallCUSA0.0878787878787878787
74.0MarylandB100.0747474747474747474
346.0Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.0346346346346346346346346346
240.0MassachusettsA100.0240240240240240240240240240
297.0McNeese St.Slnd0.0297297297297297297297297297
106.0MemphisAmer0.0106106106106106106106106106
174.0MercerSC0.0174174174174174174174174174
28.0Miami FLACC0.0282828282828282828
159.0Miami OHMAC0.0159159159159159159159159159
12.0MichiganB100.0121212121212121212
14.0Michigan St.B100.0141414141414141414
33.0Middle TennesseeCUSA0.0333333333333333333
231.0MilwaukeeHorz0.0231231231231231231231231231
171.0MinnesotaB100.0171171171171171171171171171
141.0MississippiSEC0.0141141141141141141141141141
73.0Mississippi St.SEC0.0737373737373737373
349.0Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.0349349349349349349349349349
43.0MissouriSEC0.0434343434343434343
136.0Missouri St.MVC0.0136136136136136136136136136
199.0MonmouthMAAC0.0199199199199199199199199199
76.0MontanaBSky0.0767676767676767676
283.0Montana St.BSky0.0283283283283283283283283283
Expected Standard 2.5th10th25th 75th90th97.5th
RankTeamConfDeviation Min%ile%ile%ilemedian%ile%ile%ilemax
292.0Morehead St.OVC0.0292292292292292292292292292
327.0Morgan St.MEAC0.0327327327327327327327327327
225.0Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.0225225225225225225225225225
48.0Murray St.OVC0.0484848484848484848
200.0NavyPat0.0200200200200200200200200200
56.0NebraskaB100.0565656565656565656
284.0Nebraska OmahaSum0.0284284284284284284284284284
17.0NevadaMWC0.0171717171717171717
312.0New HampshireAE0.0312312312312312312312312312
118.0New MexicoMWC0.0118118118118118118118118118
35.0New Mexico St.WAC0.0353535353535353535
239.0New OrleansSlnd0.0239239239239239239239239239
163.0NiagaraMAAC0.0163163163163163163163163163
145.0Nicholls St.Slnd0.0145145145145145145145145145
269.0NJITASun0.0269269269269269269269269269
266.0Norfolk St.MEAC0.0266266266266266266266266266
4.0North CarolinaACC0.0444444444
238.0North Carolina A&TMEAC0.0238238238238238238238238238
279.0North Carolina CentralMEAC0.0279279279279279279279279279
64.0North Carolina St.ACC0.0646464646464646464
221.0North DakotaBSky0.0221221221221221221221221221
210.0North Dakota St.Sum0.0210210210210210210210210210
218.0North FloridaASun0.0218218218218218218218218218
235.0North TexasCUSA0.0235235235235235235235235235
55.0NortheasternCAA0.0555555555555555555
310.0Northern ArizonaBSky0.0310310310310310310310310310
110.0Northern ColoradoBSky0.0110110110110110110110110110
241.0Northern IllinoisMAC0.0241241241241241241241241241
138.0Northern IowaMVC0.0138138138138138138138138138
115.0Northern KentuckyHorz0.0115115115115115115115115115
Expected Standard 2.5th10th25th 75th90th97.5th
RankTeamConfDeviation Min%ile%ile%ilemedian%ile%ile%ilemax
168.0NorthwesternB100.0168168168168168168168168168
342.0Northwestern St.Slnd0.0342342342342342342342342342
70.0Notre DameACC0.0707070707070707070
182.0OaklandHorz0.0182182182182182182182182182
204.0OhioMAC0.0204204204204204204204204204
20.0Ohio St.B100.0202020202020202020
49.0OklahomaB120.0494949494949494949
88.0Oklahoma St.B120.0888888888888888888
78.0Old DominionCUSA0.0787878787878787878
255.0Oral RobertsSum0.0255255255255255255255255255
72.0OregonP120.0727272727272727272
137.0Oregon St.P120.0137137137137137137137137137
190.0PacificWCC0.0190190190190190190190190190
112.0PennIvy0.0112112112112112112112112112
77.0Penn St.B100.0777777777777777777
317.0PepperdineWCC0.0317317317317317317317317317
217.0PittsburghACC0.0217217217217217217217217217
285.0PortlandWCC0.0285285285285285285285285285
170.0Portland St.BSky0.0170170170170170170170170170
247.0Prairie View A&MSWAC0.0247247247247247247247247247
319.0PresbyterianBSth0.0319319319319319319319319319
226.0PrincetonIvy0.0226226226226226226226226226
32.0ProvidenceBE0.0323232323232323232
9.0PurdueB100.0999999999
277.0QuinnipiacMAAC0.0277277277277277277277277277
128.0RadfordBSth0.0128128128128128128128128128
19.0Rhode IslandA100.0191919191919191919
328.0RiceCUSA0.0328328328328328328328328328
176.0RichmondA100.0176176176176176176176176176
69.0RiderMAAC0.0696969696969696969
Expected Standard 2.5th10th25th 75th90th97.5th
RankTeamConfDeviation Min%ile%ile%ilemedian%ile%ile%ilemax
196.0Robert MorrisNEC0.0196196196196196196196196196
203.0RutgersB100.0203203203203203203203203203
309.0Sacramento St.BSky0.0309309309309309309309309309
321.0Sacred HeartNEC0.0321321321321321321321321321
147.0Saint Joseph'sA100.0147147147147147147147147147
148.0Saint LouisA100.0148148148148148148148148148
40.0Saint Mary'sWCC0.0404040404040404040
251.0Saint Peter'sMAAC0.0251251251251251251251251251
206.0Sam Houston St.Slnd0.0206206206206206206206206206
296.0SamfordSC0.0296296296296296296296296296
143.0San DiegoWCC0.0143143143143143143143143143
62.0San Diego St.MWC0.0626262626262626262
139.0San FranciscoWCC0.0139139139139139139139139139
314.0San Jose St.MWC0.0314314314314314314314314314
264.0Santa ClaraWCC0.0264264264264264264264264264
197.0Savannah St.MEAC0.0197197197197197197197197197
165.0SeattleWAC0.0165165165165165165165165165
31.0Seton HallBE0.0313131313131313131
299.0SienaMAAC0.0299299299299299299299299299
287.0SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.0287287287287287287287287287
113.0SMUAmer0.0113113113113113113113113113
270.0South AlabamaSB0.0270270270270270270270270270
90.0South CarolinaSEC0.0909090909090909090
331.0South Carolina St.MEAC0.0331331331331331331331331331
91.0South DakotaSum0.0919191919191919191
37.0South Dakota St.Sum0.0373737373737373737
278.0South FloridaAmer0.0278278278278278278278278278
257.0Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.0257257257257257257257257257
150.0Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.0150150150150150150150150150
315.0SouthernSWAC0.0315315315315315315315315315
Expected Standard 2.5th10th25th 75th90th97.5th
RankTeamConfDeviation Min%ile%ile%ilemedian%ile%ile%ilemax
100.0Southern IllinoisMVC0.0100100100100100100100100100
207.0Southern MissCUSA0.0207207207207207207207207207
252.0Southern UtahBSky0.0252252252252252252252252252
24.0St. BonaventureA100.0242424242424242424
276.0St. Francis NYNEC0.0276276276276276276276276276
178.0St. Francis PANEC0.0178178178178178178178178178
92.0St. John'sBE0.0929292929292929292
86.0StanfordP120.0868686868686868686
104.0Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.0104104104104104104104104104
325.0StetsonASun0.0325325325325325325325325325
208.0Stony BrookAE0.0208208208208208208208208208
45.0SyracuseACC0.0454545454545454545
26.0TCUB120.0262626262626262626
52.0TempleAmer0.0525252525252525252
8.0TennesseeSEC0.0888888888
306.0Tennessee MartinOVC0.0306306306306306306306306306
189.0Tennessee St.OVC0.0189189189189189189189189189
158.0Tennessee TechOVC0.0158158158158158158158158158
51.0TexasB120.0515151515151515151
29.0Texas A&MSEC0.0292929292929292929
326.0Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.0326326326326326326326326326
222.0Texas SouthernSWAC0.0222222222222222222222222222
243.0Texas St.SB0.0243243243243243243243243243
23.0Texas TechB120.0232323232323232323
281.0The CitadelSC0.0281281281281281281281281281
75.0ToledoMAC0.0757575757575757575
153.0TowsonCAA0.0153153153153153153153153153
194.0TroySB0.0194194194194194194194194194
175.0TulaneAmer0.0175175175175175175175175175
89.0TulsaAmer0.0898989898989898989
Expected Standard 2.5th10th25th 75th90th97.5th
RankTeamConfDeviation Min%ile%ile%ilemedian%ile%ile%ilemax
155.0UABCUSA0.0155155155155155155155155155
102.0UC DavisBW0.0102102102102102102102102102
119.0UC IrvineBW0.0119119119119119119119119119
300.0UC RiversideBW0.0300300300300300300300300300
127.0UC Santa BarbaraBW0.0127127127127127127127127127
84.0UCFAmer0.0848484848484848484
36.0UCLAP120.0363636363636363636
289.0UMass LowellAE0.0289289289289289289289289289
111.0UMBCAE0.0111111111111111111111111111
256.0UMKCWAC0.0256256256256256256256256256
130.0UNC AshevilleBSth0.0130130130130130130130130130
65.0UNC GreensboroSC0.0656565656565656565
245.0UNC WilmingtonCAA0.0245245245245245245245245245
134.0UNLVMWC0.0134134134134134134134134134
34.0USCP120.0343434343434343434
344.0USC UpstateASun0.0344344344344344344344344344
108.0UT ArlingtonSB0.0108108108108108108108108108
229.0UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.0229229229229229229229229229
59.0UtahP120.0595959595959595959
152.0Utah St.MWC0.0152152152152152152152152152
83.0Utah ValleyWAC0.0838383838383838383
293.0UTEPCUSA0.0293293293293293293293293293
187.0UTSACUSA0.0187187187187187187187187187
188.0ValparaisoMVC0.0188188188188188188188188188
132.0VanderbiltSEC0.0132132132132132132132132132
135.0VCUA100.0135135135135135135135135135
60.0VermontAE0.0606060606060606060
2.0VillanovaBE0.0222222222
1.0VirginiaACC0.0111111111
61.0Virginia TechACC0.0616161616161616161
Expected Standard 2.5th10th25th 75th90th97.5th
RankTeamConfDeviation Min%ile%ile%ilemedian%ile%ile%ilemax
313.0VMISC0.0313313313313313313313313313
109.0WagnerNEC0.0109109109109109109109109109
160.0Wake ForestACC0.0160160160160160160160160160
71.0WashingtonP120.0717171717171717171
179.0Washington St.P120.0179179179179179179179179179
162.0Weber St.BSky0.0162162162162162162162162162
27.0West VirginiaB120.0272727272727272727
215.0Western CarolinaSC0.0215215215215215215215215215
302.0Western IllinoisSum0.0302302302302302302302302302
39.0Western KentuckyCUSA0.0393939393939393939
177.0Western MichiganMAC0.0177177177177177177177177177
16.0Wichita St.Amer0.0161616161616161616
94.0William & MaryCAA0.0949494949494949494
173.0WinthropBSth0.0173173173173173173173173173
114.0WisconsinB100.0114114114114114114114114114
129.0WoffordSC0.0129129129129129129129129129
99.0Wright St.Horz0.0999999999999999999
98.0WyomingMWC0.0989898989898989898
3.0XavierBE0.0333333333
183.0YaleIvy0.0183183183183183183183183183
329.0Youngstown St.Horz0.0329329329329329329329329329