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Through games of Mar 11, 2018.


Alabama

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:42.0
Current RPI:42
Expected SOS:3
Current SOS:3
Current Record:19-15
Expected Record:19-15
Current Conf Record:10-11
Expected Conf Record:10-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:5-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:1-0
Current OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC RPI:46
Expected OOC SOS:28



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-1542.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Alabama.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Memphis (106.0)AmerN82-70W100%0.0
11-14Lipscomb (101.0)ASunH86-64W100%0.0
11-17Alabama A&M (350.0)SWACH104-67W100%0.0
11-21UT Arlington (108.0)SBH77-76W100%0.0
11-24BYU (67.0)WCCN59-71W100%0.0
11-25Minnesota (171.0)B10N89-84L0%0.0
11-29Louisiana Tech (192.0)CUSAH77-74W100%0.0
12-3UCF (84.0)AmerH62-65L0%0.0
12-6Rhode Island (19.0)A10H68-64W100%0.0
12-9Arizona (13.0)P12A88-82L0%0.0
12-19Mercer (174.0)SCN80-79W100%0.0
12-22Texas (51.0)B12H50-66L0%0.0
12-30Texas A&M (29.0)SECH79-57W100%0.0
1-2Vanderbilt (132.0)SECA76-75L0%0.0
1-6Georgia (79.0)SECA65-46L0%0.0
1-9South Carolina (90.0)SECH76-62W100%0.0
1-13LSU (95.0)SECA66-74W100%0.0
1-17Auburn (15.0)SECH76-71W100%0.0
1-20Mississippi St. (73.0)SECH68-62W100%0.0
1-23Mississippi (141.0)SECA78-66L0%0.0
1-27Oklahoma (49.0)B12H80-73W100%0.0
1-31Missouri (43.0)SECH60-69L0%0.0
2-3Florida (46.0)SECA50-68W100%0.0
2-6Mississippi St. (73.0)SECA67-63L0%0.0
2-10Tennessee (8.0)SECH78-50W100%0.0
2-13LSU (95.0)SECH80-65W100%0.0
2-17Kentucky (10.0)SECA81-71L0%0.0
2-21Auburn (15.0)SECA90-71L0%0.0
2-24Arkansas (30.0)SECH73-76L0%0.0
2-27Florida (46.0)SECH52-73L0%0.0
3-3Texas A&M (29.0)SECA68-66L0%0.0
3-8Texas A&M (29.0)SECN70-71W100%0.0
3-9Auburn (15.0)SECN63-81W100%0.0
3-10Kentucky (10.0)SECN86-63L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Alabama's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Alabama's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Alabama.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
AlabamaSEC26.2426.2452.0852.081.091.09
Texas A&MSEC4.984.9865.5265.521.551.55
AuburnSEC4.914.9182.7682.763.223.22
KentuckySEC3.613.6168.7568.751.351.35
LSUSEC3.583.5858.6258.620.620.62
Mississippi St.SEC3.543.5466.6766.671.181.18
FloridaSEC3.513.5163.3363.330.940.94
ArkansasSEC2.302.3066.6766.670.770.77
GeorgiaSEC2.232.2353.1253.120.140.14
TennesseeSEC2.222.2278.1278.121.251.25
South CarolinaSEC2.182.1851.6151.610.070.07
MissouriSEC2.172.1760.0060.000.430.43
MississippiSEC2.152.1535.4835.48-0.63-0.63
VanderbiltSEC2.152.1535.4835.48-0.63-0.63
TexasB121.591.5956.2556.250.200.20
MemphisAmer1.591.5963.6463.640.430.43
UCFAmer1.561.5658.0658.060.250.25
ArizonaP121.541.5478.7978.790.890.89
MercerSC1.541.5455.1755.170.160.16
OklahomaB121.541.5460.0060.000.310.31
MinnesotaB101.521.5245.1645.16-0.15-0.15
LipscombASun1.521.5271.4371.430.650.65
Alabama A&MSWAC1.491.4910.0010.00-1.19-1.19
BYUWCC1.491.4972.7372.730.680.68
Louisiana TechCUSA1.491.4950.0050.000.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB1.491.4962.5062.500.370.37
Rhode IslandA101.471.4780.6580.650.900.90
West VirginiaB120.250.2570.5970.590.100.10
North FloridaASun0.210.2136.6736.67-0.06-0.06
Oklahoma St.B120.210.2157.5857.580.030.03
KansasB120.200.2079.4179.410.120.12
CincinnatiAmer0.200.2088.2488.240.160.16
ConnecticutAmer0.200.2043.7543.75-0.03-0.03
TempleAmer0.180.1853.1253.120.010.01
SamfordSC0.160.1626.6726.67-0.08-0.08
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.160.1676.6776.670.090.09
UABCUSA0.160.1658.0658.060.030.03
DaytonA100.160.1645.1645.16-0.02-0.02
Iowa St.B120.160.1641.9441.94-0.03-0.03
USCP120.160.1667.6567.650.060.06
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.140.1480.0080.000.080.08
BaylorB120.140.1454.8454.840.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.140.1437.9337.93-0.03-0.03
Kansas St.B120.140.1466.6766.670.050.05
Texas TechB120.140.1472.7372.730.060.06
HoustonAmer0.140.1478.7978.790.080.08
MassachusettsA100.140.1439.3939.39-0.03-0.03
GonzagaWCC0.130.1388.2488.240.100.10
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.120.1264.5264.520.040.04
Western CarolinaSC0.120.1236.6736.67-0.03-0.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.120.1225.0025.00-0.06-0.06
Alabama St.SWAC0.120.1225.8125.81-0.06-0.06
Southern MissCUSA0.120.1240.0040.00-0.02-0.02
MichiganB100.120.1279.4179.410.070.07
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.120.1245.4545.45-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.120.1248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
PurdueB100.120.1282.3582.350.070.07
TCUB120.110.1165.6265.620.040.04
Georgia St.SB0.110.1168.7568.750.040.04
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.110.1180.6580.650.070.07
PepperdineWCC0.110.1116.1316.13-0.08-0.08
UtahP120.110.1163.3363.330.030.03
South FloridaAmer0.110.1131.2531.25-0.04-0.04
StetsonASun0.100.1028.5728.57-0.04-0.04
WoffordSC0.100.1060.0060.000.020.02
USC UpstateASun0.100.1010.7110.71-0.08-0.08
Jackson St.SWAC0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
North TexasCUSA0.090.0943.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.090.0927.5927.59-0.04-0.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.090.0924.2424.24-0.05-0.05
East Tennessee St.SC0.090.0971.8871.880.040.04
Penn St.B100.090.0961.7661.760.020.02
Wichita St.Amer0.090.0978.1278.120.050.05
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.090.0943.3343.33-0.01-0.01
WinthropBSth0.090.0957.1457.140.010.01
NiagaraMAAC0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.090.0968.9768.970.030.03
Little RockSB0.090.0920.0020.00-0.05-0.05
ColoradoP120.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
East CarolinaAmer0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
SMUAmer0.090.0951.5251.520.000.00
StanfordP120.090.0954.5554.550.010.01
TulsaAmer0.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.090.0984.8584.850.060.06
TroySB0.090.0945.1645.16-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
JacksonvilleASun0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.080.0828.5728.57-0.03-0.03
BelmontOVC0.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
FurmanSC0.070.0767.7467.740.030.03
UTSACUSA0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
La SalleA100.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.070.0751.7251.720.000.00
SouthernSWAC0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
MarquetteBE0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
Green BayHorz0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
NorthwesternB100.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.070.0712.5012.50-0.05-0.05
Texas SouthernSWAC0.070.0744.1244.12-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.070.0717.2417.24-0.05-0.05
BuffaloMAC0.070.0775.7675.760.040.04
ClemsonACC0.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
CornellIvy0.070.0740.7440.74-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
HofstraCAA0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.070.0782.7682.760.050.05
NebraskaB100.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.070.0770.0070.000.030.03
DukeACC0.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
New HampshireAE0.070.0727.5927.59-0.03-0.03
VCUA100.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Fort WayneSum0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
OregonP120.070.0764.7164.710.020.02
PortlandWCC0.070.0724.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Appalachian St.SB0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
HarvardIvy0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
TulaneAmer0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.060.0665.5265.520.020.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.050.0544.4444.44-0.01-0.01
NJITASun0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
The CitadelSC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
VMISC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Notre DameACC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
FIUCUSA0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
IllinoisB100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.058.008.00-0.04-0.04
Florida St.ACC0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.050.0512.5012.50-0.03-0.03
IndianaB100.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
IowaB100.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0584.3884.380.030.03
ProvidenceBE0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
RutgersB100.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Seton HallBE0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
VirginiaACC0.050.0593.9493.940.040.04
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0530.7730.77-0.02-0.02
Oral RobertsSum0.040.0428.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.040.0461.2961.290.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.040.0440.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.040.0446.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Texas St.SB0.040.0441.9441.94-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.040.049.689.68-0.04-0.04
North CarolinaACC0.040.0471.4371.430.020.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.040.0465.6265.620.010.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.040.0433.3333.33-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.040.0425.8125.81-0.02-0.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.040.0450.0050.000.000.00
MonmouthMAAC0.040.0435.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.040.0450.0050.000.000.00
PacificWCC0.040.0441.9441.94-0.01-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.040.0453.1253.120.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.040.0434.4834.48-0.01-0.01
VermontAE0.040.0478.7978.790.020.02
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0322.2222.22-0.01-0.01
NavyPat0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
DrexelCAA0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
CharlotteCUSA0.020.0217.8617.86-0.02-0.02
DePaulBE0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Montana St.BSky0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
WagnerNEC0.020.0270.0070.000.010.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
BradleyMVC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
BrownIvy0.020.0238.4638.46-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.020.0277.4277.420.010.01
DrakeMVC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
DuquesneA100.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Holy CrossPat0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.020.0210.7110.71-0.02-0.02
IonaMAAC0.020.0260.6160.610.000.00
MarylandB100.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
Miami FLACC0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
Michigan St.B100.020.0287.8887.880.020.02
NevadaMWC0.020.0279.4179.410.010.01
Ohio St.B100.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
RadfordBSth0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
RichmondA100.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.020.0280.0080.000.010.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
WisconsinB100.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
WyomingMWC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.020.0260.6160.610.000.00
Cal PolyBW0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.020.0262.0762.070.010.01
CreightonBE0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
High PointBSth0.020.0240.7440.74-0.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
VillanovaBE0.020.0288.2488.240.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
AlbanyAE0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
BucknellPat0.020.0273.5373.530.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
Idaho St.BSky0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Loyola MDPat0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.020.0213.3313.33-0.02-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
SienaMAAC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
UMBCAE0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
UNLVMWC0.020.0260.6160.610.000.00
Utah St.MWC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
WashingtonP120.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Washington St.P120.020.0238.7138.71-0.00-0.00
Weber St.BSky0.020.0260.7160.710.000.00