Albany

Conference:	AE
Expected RPI:	142.0
Current RPI:	142
Expected SOS:	292
Current SOS:	292
Current Record:	21-10
Expected Record:	21-10
Current Conf Record:	10-7
Expected Conf Record:	10-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	7-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	14-3
Current OOC Record:	11-3
Expected OOC Record:	11-3
Expected OOC RPI:	78
Expected OOC SOS:	281

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
21-10	142.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Albany.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Iona (107.0)	MAAC	H	69-67	W	100%
11-13	Boston University (212.0)	Pat	A	74-88	W	100%
11-17	Yale (183.0)	Ivy	H	80-72	W	100%
11-22	Dartmouth (334.0)	Ivy	A	73-91	W	100%
11-25	Holy Cross (265.0)	Pat	A	62-78	W	100%
11-27	Monmouth (199.0)	MAAC	A	81-73	L	0%
11-29	Colgate (185.0)	Pat	H	75-69	W	100%
12-2	Columbia (316.0)	Ivy	H	86-82	W	100%
12-6	Bryant (341.0)	NEC	H	84-68	W	100%
12-9	Siena (299.0)	MAAC	A	69-74	W	100%
12-12	Memphis (106.0)	Amer	A	67-58	L	0%
12-16	Canisius (124.0)	MAAC	H	68-65	W	100%
12-20	Louisville (38.0)	ACC	A	70-68	L	0%
12-28	Kent St. (154.0)	MAC	H	78-68	W	100%
1-3	Hartford (198.0)	AE	H	64-72	L	0%
1-6	New Hampshire (312.0)	AE	A	64-61	L	0%
1-10	Stony Brook (208.0)	AE	H	78-65	W	100%
1-13	Maine (338.0)	AE	A	66-84	W	100%
1-15	Binghamton (320.0)	AE	A	79-66	L	0%
1-18	UMass Lowell (289.0)	AE	H	70-62	W	100%
1-21	UMBC (111.0)	AE	H	83-39	W	100%
1-24	Vermont (60.0)	AE	A	61-50	L	0%
1-27	Stony Brook (208.0)	AE	A	50-57	W	100%
2-3	New Hampshire (312.0)	AE	H	83-74	W	100%
2-8	Vermont (60.0)	AE	H	67-72	L	0%
2-11	Hartford (198.0)	AE	A	63-69	W	100%
2-15	UMass Lowell (289.0)	AE	A	81-91	W	100%
2-18	UMBC (111.0)	AE	A	68-60	L	0%
2-24	Maine (338.0)	AE	H	89-79	W	100%
2-27	Binghamton (320.0)	AE	H	71-54	W	100%
3-3	Stony Brook (208.0)	AE	H	60-69	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Albany's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Albany's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Albany.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Albany	AE	26.35	26.35	69.34	69.34	10.19	10.19
Stony Brook	AE	5.67	5.67	39.29	39.29	-1.21	-1.21
Vermont	AE	4.30	4.30	77.42	77.42	2.36	2.36
UMBC	AE	4.21	4.21	68.97	68.97	1.60	1.60
New Hampshire	AE	4.18	4.18	25.93	25.93	-2.01	-2.01
Maine	AE	4.16	4.16	14.29	14.29	-2.97	-2.97
Hartford	AE	4.16	4.16	58.62	58.62	0.72	0.72
UMass Lowell	AE	4.10	4.10	40.74	40.74	-0.76	-0.76
Binghamton	AE	4.04	4.04	29.63	29.63	-1.65	-1.65
Dartmouth	Ivy	1.94	1.94	24.00	24.00	-1.01	-1.01
Siena	MAAC	1.91	1.91	25.81	25.81	-0.93	-0.93
Columbia	Ivy	1.89	1.89	28.00	28.00	-0.83	-0.83
Colgate	Pat	1.88	1.88	60.00	60.00	0.38	0.38
Boston University	Pat	1.88	1.88	48.28	48.28	-0.06	-0.06
Yale	Ivy	1.86	1.86	51.72	51.72	0.06	0.06
Bryant	NEC	1.85	1.85	10.00	10.00	-1.48	-1.48
Holy Cross	Pat	1.85	1.85	40.00	40.00	-0.37	-0.37
Iona	MAAC	1.82	1.82	62.50	62.50	0.45	0.45
Canisius	MAAC	1.80	1.80	67.74	67.74	0.64	0.64
Monmouth	MAAC	1.79	1.79	33.33	33.33	-0.60	-0.60
Memphis	Amer	1.69	1.69	60.61	60.61	0.36	0.36
Louisville	ACC	1.69	1.69	59.38	59.38	0.32	0.32
Kent St.	MAC	1.61	1.61	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Quinnipiac	MAAC	0.42	0.42	36.36	36.36	-0.11	-0.11
Bucknell	Pat	0.39	0.39	73.53	73.53	0.18	0.18
LIU Brooklyn	NEC	0.35	0.35	51.52	51.52	0.01	0.01
Brown	Ivy	0.34	0.34	38.46	38.46	-0.08	-0.08
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.33	0.33	30.00	30.00	-0.13	-0.13
Loyola MD	Pat	0.32	0.32	26.67	26.67	-0.15	-0.15
Cornell	Ivy	0.32	0.32	40.74	40.74	-0.06	-0.06
Army	Pat	0.30	0.30	41.38	41.38	-0.05	-0.05
Harvard	Ivy	0.28	0.28	56.67	56.67	0.04	0.04
Lehigh	Pat	0.26	0.26	51.72	51.72	0.01	0.01
Fairfield	MAAC	0.26	0.26	51.52	51.52	0.01	0.01
Saint Peter's	MAAC	0.25	0.25	43.75	43.75	-0.03	-0.03
Navy	Pat	0.24	0.24	61.29	61.29	0.05	0.05
Connecticut	Amer	0.24	0.24	43.75	43.75	-0.03	-0.03
Marist	MAAC	0.23	0.23	19.35	19.35	-0.14	-0.14
Niagara	MAAC	0.23	0.23	59.38	59.38	0.04	0.04
Penn	Ivy	0.23	0.23	74.19	74.19	0.11	0.11
Rider	MAAC	0.23	0.23	70.97	70.97	0.10	0.10
Manhattan	MAAC	0.23	0.23	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
Boston College	ACC	0.22	0.22	55.88	55.88	0.03	0.03
American	Pat	0.21	0.21	20.00	20.00	-0.13	-0.13
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.21	0.21	43.75	43.75	-0.03	-0.03
Princeton	Ivy	0.20	0.20	42.86	42.86	-0.03	-0.03
Lafayette	Pat	0.18	0.18	30.00	30.00	-0.07	-0.07
Wagner	NEC	0.16	0.16	70.00	70.00	0.06	0.06
Rutgers	B10	0.16	0.16	42.42	42.42	-0.02	-0.02
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.15	0.15	57.14	57.14	0.02	0.02
Ball St.	MAC	0.15	0.15	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Northern Kentucky	Horz	0.15	0.15	68.97	68.97	0.06	0.06
Massachusetts	A10	0.14	0.14	39.39	39.39	-0.03	-0.03
Maryland	B10	0.13	0.13	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Hofstra	CAA	0.13	0.13	60.00	60.00	0.03	0.03
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.13	0.13	78.12	78.12	0.07	0.07
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.11	0.11	6.67	6.67	-0.09	-0.09
NJIT	ASun	0.11	0.11	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.10	0.10	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.10	0.10	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Robert Morris	NEC	0.10	0.10	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Miami OH	MAC	0.10	0.10	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Northeastern	CAA	0.10	0.10	68.75	68.75	0.04	0.04
Kentucky	SEC	0.10	0.10	70.59	70.59	0.04	0.04
Virginia	ACC	0.10	0.10	93.94	93.94	0.09	0.09
Buffalo	MAC	0.10	0.10	75.76	75.76	0.05	0.05
Penn St.	B10	0.09	0.09	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
Wisconsin	B10	0.08	0.08	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Evansville	MVC	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
George Mason	A10	0.08	0.08	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Michigan St.	B10	0.08	0.08	87.88	87.88	0.06	0.06
Providence	BE	0.08	0.08	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
SMU	Amer	0.08	0.08	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Syracuse	ACC	0.07	0.07	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Coastal Carolina	SB	0.07	0.07	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Florida St.	ACC	0.07	0.07	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Ohio	MAC	0.07	0.07	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Cincinnati	Amer	0.07	0.07	88.24	88.24	0.05	0.05
South Florida	Amer	0.07	0.07	31.25	31.25	-0.03	-0.03
Tulsa	Amer	0.07	0.07	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.06	0.06	14.29	14.29	-0.04	-0.04
Florida	SEC	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Furman	SC	0.06	0.06	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
George Washington	A10	0.06	0.06	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Montana St.	BSky	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Texas	B12	0.06	0.06	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Utah St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Notre Dame	ACC	0.06	0.06	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Fordham	A10	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Georgetown	BE	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
South Alabama	SB	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Elon	CAA	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Arizona	P12	0.05	0.05	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Chicago St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	3.33	3.33	-0.05	-0.05
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	15.62	15.62	-0.04	-0.04
FIU	CUSA	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Portland	WCC	0.05	0.05	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
The Citadel	SC	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
Towson	CAA	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.05	0.05	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Rhode Island	A10	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Seton Hall	BE	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Akron	MAC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Bradley	MVC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Marquette	BE	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.02	-0.02
Richmond	A10	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
East Carolina	Amer	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Tulane	Amer	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
UCF	Amer	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Longwood	BSth	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Villanova	BE	0.03	0.03	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Creighton	BE	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Delaware	CAA	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
TCU	B12	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
La Salle	A10	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
UNC Asheville	BSth	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
College of Charleston	CAA	0.03	0.03	77.42	77.42	0.01	0.01
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Pacific	WCC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Texas St.	SB	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Clemson	ACC	0.02	0.02	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.02	0.02	32.35	32.35	-0.01	-0.01
Duke	ACC	0.02	0.02	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.02	0.02	58.62	58.62	0.00	0.00
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Indiana	B10	0.02	0.02	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Loyola Chicago	MVC	0.02	0.02	84.38	84.38	0.02	0.02
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.02	0.02	12.50	12.50	-0.02	-0.02
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.02	0.02	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.02	0.02	71.43	71.43	0.01	0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Purdue	B10	0.02	0.02	82.35	82.35	0.02	0.02
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.02	0.02	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.02	0.02	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
St. John's	BE	0.02	0.02	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Toledo	MAC	0.02	0.02	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Valparaiso	MVC	0.02	0.02	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Wake Forest	ACC	0.02	0.02	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Weber St.	BSky	0.02	0.02	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Wright St.	Horz	0.02	0.02	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Xavier	BE	0.02	0.02	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02
Alabama	SEC	0.02	0.02	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Houston	Amer	0.02	0.02	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
Little Rock	SB	0.02	0.02	20.00	20.00	-0.01	-0.01
LSU	SEC	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Mercer	SC	0.02	0.02	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
New Orleans	Slnd	0.02	0.02	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Samford	SC	0.02	0.02	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Temple	Amer	0.02	0.02	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
UAB	CUSA	0.02	0.02	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Wichita St.	Amer	0.02	0.02	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01