Arizona

Conference:	P12
Expected RPI:	13.0
Current RPI:	13
Expected SOS:	51
Current SOS:	51
Current Record:	27-7
Expected Record:	27-7
Current Conf Record:	17-4
Expected Conf Record:	17-4
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	5-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	9-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	8-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	5-0
Current OOC Record:	10-3
Expected OOC Record:	10-3
Expected OOC RPI:	37
Expected OOC SOS:	74

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
27-7	13.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Arizona.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Northern Arizona (310.0)	BSky	H	101-67	W	100%
11-12	UMBC (111.0)	AE	H	103-78	W	100%
11-16	Cal St. Bakersfield (220.0)	WAC	H	91-59	W	100%
11-22	North Carolina St. (64.0)	ACC	N	90-84	L	0%
11-23	SMU (113.0)	Amer	N	66-60	L	0%
11-24	Purdue (9.0)	B10	N	64-89	L	0%
11-29	Long Beach St. (191.0)	BW	H	91-56	W	100%
12-2	UNLV (134.0)	MWC	A	88-91	W	100%
12-5	Texas A&M (29.0)	SEC	N	67-64	W	100%
12-9	Alabama (42.0)	SEC	H	88-82	W	100%
12-16	New Mexico (118.0)	MWC	A	73-89	W	100%
12-18	North Dakota St. (210.0)	Sum	H	83-53	W	100%
12-21	Connecticut (123.0)	Amer	H	73-58	W	100%
12-30	Arizona St. (66.0)	P12	H	84-78	W	100%
1-4	Utah (59.0)	P12	A	82-94	W	100%
1-6	Colorado (82.0)	P12	A	80-77	L	0%
1-11	Oregon St. (137.0)	P12	H	62-53	W	100%
1-13	Oregon (72.0)	P12	H	90-83	W	100%
1-17	California (216.0)	P12	A	58-79	W	100%
1-20	Stanford (86.0)	P12	A	71-73	W	100%
1-25	Colorado (82.0)	P12	H	80-71	W	100%
1-27	Utah (59.0)	P12	H	74-73	W	100%
1-31	Washington St. (179.0)	P12	A	72-100	W	100%
2-3	Washington (71.0)	P12	A	78-75	L	0%
2-8	UCLA (36.0)	P12	H	74-82	L	0%
2-10	USC (34.0)	P12	H	81-67	W	100%
2-15	Arizona St. (66.0)	P12	A	70-77	W	100%
2-22	Oregon St. (137.0)	P12	A	65-75	W	100%
2-24	Oregon (72.0)	P12	A	98-93	L	0%
3-1	Stanford (86.0)	P12	H	75-67	W	100%
3-3	California (216.0)	P12	H	66-54	W	100%
3-8	Colorado (82.0)	P12	N	83-67	W	100%
3-9	UCLA (36.0)	P12	N	78-67	W	100%
3-10	USC (34.0)	P12	N	75-61	W	100%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Arizona's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Arizona's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Arizona.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Arizona	P12	26.29	26.29	79.61	79.61	15.57	15.57
Colorado	P12	5.13	5.13	55.17	55.17	0.53	0.53
USC	P12	3.89	3.89	71.88	71.88	1.70	1.70
UCLA	P12	3.79	3.79	66.67	66.67	1.26	1.26
Arizona St.	P12	3.77	3.77	68.97	68.97	1.43	1.43
Oregon	P12	3.75	3.75	65.62	65.62	1.17	1.17
Stanford	P12	3.73	3.73	58.06	58.06	0.60	0.60
Oregon St.	P12	3.72	3.72	53.33	53.33	0.25	0.25
Utah	P12	3.69	3.69	67.86	67.86	1.32	1.32
California	P12	3.65	3.65	27.59	27.59	-1.64	-1.64
Washington	P12	2.30	2.30	61.29	61.29	0.52	0.52
Washington St.	P12	2.29	2.29	40.00	40.00	-0.46	-0.46
Long Beach St.	BW	1.61	1.61	43.33	43.33	-0.21	-0.21
New Mexico	MWC	1.58	1.58	56.25	56.25	0.20	0.20
SMU	Amer	1.58	1.58	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Texas A&M	SEC	1.58	1.58	64.52	64.52	0.46	0.46
UNLV	MWC	1.56	1.56	62.50	62.50	0.39	0.39
Connecticut	Amer	1.56	1.56	45.16	45.16	-0.15	-0.15
Northern Arizona	BSky	1.55	1.55	13.79	13.79	-1.12	-1.12
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	1.54	1.54	34.62	34.62	-0.47	-0.47
Alabama	SEC	1.54	1.54	57.58	57.58	0.23	0.23
North Dakota St.	Sum	1.51	1.51	42.86	42.86	-0.22	-0.22
UMBC	AE	1.49	1.49	70.00	70.00	0.60	0.60
North Carolina St.	ACC	1.47	1.47	64.52	64.52	0.43	0.43
Purdue	B10	1.47	1.47	81.82	81.82	0.94	0.94
San Diego St.	MWC	0.21	0.21	67.74	67.74	0.07	0.07
Colorado St.	MWC	0.20	0.20	32.26	32.26	-0.07	-0.07
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.19	0.19	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Fresno St.	MWC	0.18	0.18	63.33	63.33	0.05	0.05
Air Force	MWC	0.18	0.18	34.48	34.48	-0.06	-0.06
UC Irvine	BW	0.17	0.17	48.48	48.48	-0.01	-0.01
Denver	Sum	0.16	0.16	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.16	0.16	62.07	62.07	0.04	0.04
Cal Poly	BW	0.16	0.16	24.14	24.14	-0.08	-0.08
Utah St.	MWC	0.16	0.16	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.16	0.16	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Portland St.	BSky	0.16	0.16	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Cincinnati	Amer	0.16	0.16	88.24	88.24	0.12	0.12
Boise St.	MWC	0.15	0.15	73.33	73.33	0.07	0.07
Seattle	WAC	0.15	0.15	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.14	0.14	80.00	80.00	0.09	0.09
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.14	0.14	83.33	83.33	0.09	0.09
Southern Utah	BSky	0.14	0.14	36.67	36.67	-0.04	-0.04
Missouri	SEC	0.14	0.14	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.14	0.14	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.14	0.14	70.00	70.00	0.06	0.06
Kansas	B12	0.14	0.14	79.41	79.41	0.08	0.08
Wichita St.	Amer	0.14	0.14	78.12	78.12	0.08	0.08
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.14	0.14	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.14	0.14	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Kentucky	SEC	0.14	0.14	70.59	70.59	0.06	0.06
Wyoming	MWC	0.14	0.14	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
Idaho	BSky	0.13	0.13	68.97	68.97	0.05	0.05
South Dakota	Sum	0.12	0.12	73.33	73.33	0.06	0.06
Idaho St.	BSky	0.12	0.12	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
Arkansas	SEC	0.12	0.12	67.65	67.65	0.04	0.04
Montana	BSky	0.12	0.12	77.42	77.42	0.06	0.06
Xavier	BE	0.12	0.12	84.85	84.85	0.08	0.08
San Francisco	WCC	0.12	0.12	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Pacific	WCC	0.11	0.11	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
UCF	Amer	0.11	0.11	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Auburn	SEC	0.11	0.11	78.12	78.12	0.06	0.06
Michigan	B10	0.11	0.11	79.41	79.41	0.07	0.07
Florida	SEC	0.11	0.11	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Oklahoma	B12	0.11	0.11	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Chicago St.	WAC	0.10	0.10	3.33	3.33	-0.09	-0.09
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.10	0.10	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Hawaii	BW	0.10	0.10	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.10	0.10	24.14	24.14	-0.05	-0.05
Kansas St.	B12	0.10	0.10	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.09	0.09	14.29	14.29	-0.07	-0.07
UC Riverside	BW	0.09	0.09	24.14	24.14	-0.05	-0.05
UC Davis	BW	0.09	0.09	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Mississippi	SEC	0.09	0.09	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
San Diego	WCC	0.09	0.09	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
St. John's	BE	0.09	0.09	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
South Florida	Amer	0.09	0.09	31.25	31.25	-0.03	-0.03
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.09	0.09	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Iowa	B10	0.09	0.09	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Mercer	SC	0.09	0.09	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
East Carolina	Amer	0.09	0.09	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
North Carolina	ACC	0.09	0.09	71.43	71.43	0.04	0.04
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.09	0.09	15.62	15.62	-0.06	-0.06
Memphis	Amer	0.09	0.09	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
Maryland	B10	0.09	0.09	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
LSU	SEC	0.09	0.09	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.09	0.09	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
Tennessee	SEC	0.09	0.09	75.76	75.76	0.05	0.05
Wisconsin	B10	0.09	0.09	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Nevada	MWC	0.09	0.09	79.41	79.41	0.05	0.05
San Jose St.	MWC	0.09	0.09	10.34	10.34	-0.07	-0.07
Utah Valley	WAC	0.08	0.08	65.52	65.52	0.03	0.03
UMKC	WAC	0.08	0.08	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
Fort Wayne	Sum	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
North Dakota	BSky	0.08	0.08	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.07	0.07	28.57	28.57	-0.03	-0.03
UTEP	CUSA	0.07	0.07	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.07	0.07	12.50	12.50	-0.05	-0.05
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.07	0.07	8.00	8.00	-0.06	-0.06
Hartford	AE	0.07	0.07	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
UMass Lowell	AE	0.07	0.07	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Vermont	AE	0.07	0.07	78.79	78.79	0.04	0.04
Saint Mary's	WCC	0.07	0.07	84.85	84.85	0.05	0.05
Butler	BE	0.07	0.07	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
BYU	WCC	0.07	0.07	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
Stony Brook	AE	0.07	0.07	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Drake	MVC	0.07	0.07	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.07	0.07	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.07	0.07	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Quinnipiac	MAAC	0.07	0.07	36.36	36.36	-0.02	-0.02
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.07	0.07	26.67	26.67	-0.03	-0.03
Michigan St.	B10	0.07	0.07	87.88	87.88	0.05	0.05
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.07	0.07	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Temple	Amer	0.07	0.07	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Tulsa	Amer	0.07	0.07	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Santa Clara	WCC	0.07	0.07	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Houston	Amer	0.07	0.07	78.79	78.79	0.04	0.04
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.07	0.07	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Tulane	Amer	0.07	0.07	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.07	0.07	44.12	44.12	-0.01	-0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.07	0.07	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Minnesota	B10	0.06	0.06	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Rutgers	B10	0.06	0.06	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia Southern	SB	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Missouri St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Western Illinois	Sum	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Montana St.	BSky	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Weber St.	BSky	0.05	0.05	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.05	0.05	24.24	24.24	-0.02	-0.02
Jacksonville	ASun	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Albany	AE	0.05	0.05	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Binghamton	AE	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Longwood	BSth	0.05	0.05	13.33	13.33	-0.03	-0.03
Maine	AE	0.05	0.05	13.33	13.33	-0.03	-0.03
New Hampshire	AE	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
VCU	A10	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Wofford	SC	0.05	0.05	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Colgate	Pat	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Northern Kentucky	Horz	0.05	0.05	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
Pepperdine	WCC	0.05	0.05	16.13	16.13	-0.03	-0.03
West Virginia	B12	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Boston College	ACC	0.05	0.05	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Clemson	ACC	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Creighton	BE	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Detroit	Horz	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Marist	MAAC	0.05	0.05	19.35	19.35	-0.03	-0.03
Notre Dame	ACC	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Saint Louis	A10	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Syracuse	ACC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Wake Forest	ACC	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
IUPUI	Horz	0.05	0.05	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
Nebraska	B10	0.05	0.05	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Georgia	SEC	0.04	0.04	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Louisville	ACC	0.04	0.04	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.04	0.04	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Northeastern	CAA	0.04	0.04	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Rice	CUSA	0.04	0.04	17.24	17.24	-0.03	-0.03
TCU	B12	0.04	0.04	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Illinois	B10	0.04	0.04	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.04	0.04	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Akron	MAC	0.04	0.04	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.04	0.04	25.81	25.81	-0.02	-0.02
Ball St.	MAC	0.04	0.04	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
DePaul	BE	0.04	0.04	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Lehigh	Pat	0.04	0.04	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Lipscomb	ASun	0.04	0.04	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.04	0.04	76.67	76.67	0.02	0.02
Princeton	Ivy	0.04	0.04	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Delaware	CAA	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.03	0.03	80.00	80.00	0.02	0.02
Stetson	ASun	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
UNC Wilmington	CAA	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Hampton	MEAC	0.02	0.02	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.02	0.02	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
Army	Pat	0.02	0.02	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	6.67	6.67	-0.02	-0.02
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.02	0.02	58.62	58.62	0.00	0.00
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.02	0.02	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
The Citadel	SC	0.02	0.02	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Towson	CAA	0.02	0.02	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Belmont	OVC	0.02	0.02	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Boston University	Pat	0.02	0.02	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Bryant	NEC	0.02	0.02	9.68	9.68	-0.02	-0.02
Buffalo	MAC	0.02	0.02	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.02	0.02	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Columbia	Ivy	0.02	0.02	26.92	26.92	-0.01	-0.01
Duke	ACC	0.02	0.02	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.02	0.02	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Gonzaga	WCC	0.02	0.02	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.02	0.02	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.02	0.02	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Monmouth	MAAC	0.02	0.02	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.02	0.02	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.02	0.02	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Presbyterian	BSth	0.02	0.02	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Providence	BE	0.02	0.02	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Robert Morris	NEC	0.02	0.02	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
UNC Greensboro	SC	0.02	0.02	77.42	77.42	0.01	0.01
Villanova	BE	0.02	0.02	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Virginia	ACC	0.02	0.02	93.94	93.94	0.02	0.02
VMI	SC	0.02	0.02	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Evansville	MVC	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.02	0.02	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
New Orleans	Slnd	0.02	0.02	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.02	0.02	9.68	9.68	-0.02	-0.02
Fairfield	MAAC	0.02	0.02	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Indiana	B10	0.02	0.02	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.02	0.02	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Marquette	BE	0.02	0.02	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Northwestern	B10	0.02	0.02	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Rhode Island	A10	0.02	0.02	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.02	0.02	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.02	0.02	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Texas	B12	0.02	0.02	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
UT Arlington	SB	0.02	0.02	60.61	60.61	0.00	0.00
Valparaiso	MVC	0.02	0.02	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00