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Through games of Mar 11, 2018.


Arkansas

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:30.0
Current RPI:30
Expected SOS:35
Current SOS:35
Current Record:23-11
Expected Record:23-11
Current Conf Record:12-9
Expected Conf Record:12-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:5-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:5-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-0
Current OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC RPI:23
Expected OOC SOS:96



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-1130.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Arkansas.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Samford (296.0)SCH95-56W100%0.0
11-12Bucknell (80.0)PatH101-73W100%0.0
11-17Fresno St. (103.0)MWCH83-75W100%0.0
11-23Oklahoma (49.0)B12N83-92W100%0.0
11-24North Carolina (4.0)ACCN68-87L0%0.0
11-26Connecticut (123.0)AmerN67-102W100%0.0
12-2Houston (18.0)AmerA91-65L0%0.0
12-5Colorado St. (234.0)MWCH92-66W100%0.0
12-9Minnesota (171.0)B10H95-79W100%0.0
12-16Troy (194.0)SBN88-63W100%0.0
12-19Oral Roberts (255.0)SumH104-69W100%0.0
12-27Cal St. Bakersfield (220.0)WACH95-68W100%0.0
12-30Tennessee (8.0)SECH95-93W100%0.0
1-2Mississippi St. (73.0)SECA78-75L0%0.0
1-6Auburn (15.0)SECA88-77L0%0.0
1-10LSU (95.0)SECH54-75L0%0.0
1-13Missouri (43.0)SECH65-63W100%0.0
1-17Florida (46.0)SECA88-73L0%0.0
1-20Mississippi (141.0)SECH97-93W100%0.0
1-23Georgia (79.0)SECA77-80W100%0.0
1-27Oklahoma St. (88.0)B12H66-65W100%0.0
1-30Texas A&M (29.0)SECA80-66L0%0.0
2-3LSU (95.0)SECA94-86L0%0.0
2-6South Carolina (90.0)SECH81-65W100%0.0
2-10Vanderbilt (132.0)SECH72-54W100%0.0
2-13Mississippi (141.0)SECA64-75W100%0.0
2-17Texas A&M (29.0)SECH94-75W100%0.0
2-20Kentucky (10.0)SECH72-87L0%0.0
2-24Alabama (42.0)SECA73-76W100%0.0
2-27Auburn (15.0)SECH91-82W100%0.0
3-3Missouri (43.0)SECA77-67L0%0.0
3-8South Carolina (90.0)SECN69-64W100%0.0
3-9Florida (46.0)SECN72-80W100%0.0
3-10Tennessee (8.0)SECN84-66L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Arkansas's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Arkansas's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Arkansas.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ArkansasSEC26.1626.1666.9166.918.858.85
South CarolinaSEC3.603.6053.3353.330.240.24
TennesseeSEC3.603.6077.4277.421.981.98
MississippiSEC3.583.5840.0040.00-0.72-0.72
Texas A&MSEC3.563.5663.3363.330.950.95
LSUSEC3.563.5651.7251.720.120.12
AuburnSEC3.563.5680.0080.002.132.13
MissouriSEC3.533.5362.0762.070.850.85
FloridaSEC3.513.5163.3363.330.940.94
AlabamaSEC2.302.3057.5857.580.350.35
GeorgiaSEC2.252.2556.2556.250.280.28
KentuckySEC2.252.2569.7069.700.890.89
Mississippi St.SEC2.202.2064.5264.520.640.64
VanderbiltSEC2.132.1338.7138.71-0.48-0.48
Oklahoma St.B121.611.6159.3859.380.300.30
OklahomaB121.561.5660.0060.000.310.31
Fresno St.MWC1.551.5565.5265.520.480.48
HoustonAmer1.541.5478.1278.120.870.87
ConnecticutAmer1.541.5445.1645.16-0.15-0.15
North CarolinaACC1.541.5470.5970.590.630.63
Colorado St.MWC1.521.5233.3333.33-0.51-0.51
MinnesotaB101.521.5248.3948.39-0.05-0.05
SamfordSC1.521.5227.5927.59-0.68-0.68
Oral RobertsSum1.521.5229.6329.63-0.62-0.62
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC1.501.5034.6234.62-0.46-0.46
TroySB1.491.4946.6746.67-0.10-0.10
BucknellPat1.491.4975.7675.760.770.77
West VirginiaB120.210.2170.5970.590.090.09
TempleAmer0.200.2053.1253.120.010.01
Iowa St.B120.180.1841.9441.94-0.03-0.03
KansasB120.180.1879.4179.410.110.11
CincinnatiAmer0.180.1888.2488.240.140.14
North FloridaASun0.160.1636.6736.67-0.04-0.04
Kansas St.B120.160.1666.6766.670.050.05
MemphisAmer0.160.1661.7661.760.040.04
TexasB120.160.1657.5857.580.020.02
UCFAmer0.160.1659.3859.380.030.03
Wichita St.Amer0.160.1678.1278.120.090.09
ClemsonACC0.160.1671.8871.880.070.07
San Diego St.MWC0.140.1467.7467.740.050.05
WyomingMWC0.140.1459.3859.380.030.03
BaylorB120.140.1454.8454.840.010.01
Texas TechB120.140.1472.7372.730.060.06
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.120.1243.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.120.1280.0080.000.070.07
ArizonaP120.120.1279.4179.410.070.07
Georgia St.SB0.120.1268.7568.750.040.04
TulsaAmer0.120.1261.2961.290.030.03
WoffordSC0.120.1260.0060.000.020.02
MercerSC0.120.1253.3353.330.010.01
TCUB120.110.1165.6265.620.040.04
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.110.1176.6776.670.060.06
Florida St.ACC0.110.1164.5264.520.030.03
TulaneAmer0.110.1145.1645.16-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.110.1178.7978.790.060.06
Utah ValleyWAC0.100.1065.5265.520.030.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
UNLVMWC0.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.100.1080.0080.000.060.06
Air ForceMWC0.100.1034.4834.48-0.03-0.03
NevadaMWC0.100.1079.4179.410.060.06
New MexicoMWC0.100.1054.5554.550.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.100.1048.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Penn St.B100.100.1061.7661.760.020.02
OregonP120.090.0964.7164.710.030.03
PepperdineWCC0.090.0916.1316.13-0.06-0.06
East Tennessee St.SC0.090.0971.8871.880.040.04
FurmanSC0.090.0967.7467.740.030.03
Coastal CarolinaSB0.090.0937.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.090.0980.6580.650.060.06
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.090.0951.7251.720.000.00
UtahP120.090.0963.3363.330.020.02
Western CarolinaSC0.090.0936.6736.67-0.02-0.02
USCP120.090.0967.6567.650.030.03
WinthropBSth0.090.0957.1457.140.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.090.0937.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
MichiganB100.090.0979.4179.410.050.05
MassachusettsA100.090.0939.3939.39-0.02-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
PurdueB100.090.0982.3582.350.060.06
SMUAmer0.090.0951.5251.520.000.00
Notre DameACC0.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
Boston UniversityPat0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
ColgatePat0.090.0958.0658.060.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.090.0940.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.090.0935.4835.48-0.03-0.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
DenverSum0.080.0846.4346.43-0.01-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.080.0883.3383.330.050.05
Nebraska OmahaSum0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
North Dakota St.Sum0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Fort WayneSum0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
ChattanoogaSC0.070.0725.8125.81-0.04-0.04
Little RockSB0.070.0720.0020.00-0.04-0.04
Boise St.MWC0.070.0773.3373.330.030.03
San Jose St.MWC0.070.0710.3410.34-0.06-0.06
South AlabamaSB0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.070.0784.3884.380.050.05
Alcorn St.SWAC0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Green BayHorz0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
IllinoisB100.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.070.0727.5927.59-0.03-0.03
MarquetteBE0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
NorthwesternB100.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.070.079.689.68-0.06-0.06
Austin PeayOVC0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
DaytonA100.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.070.0712.5012.50-0.05-0.05
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.070.0745.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.070.0730.7730.77-0.03-0.03
South FloridaAmer0.070.0731.2531.25-0.03-0.03
VillanovaBE0.070.0788.2488.240.050.05
Michigan St.B100.070.0787.8887.880.050.05
StanfordP120.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
MonmouthMAAC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
LipscombASun0.070.0768.9768.970.030.03
Miami FLACC0.060.0670.9770.970.030.03
SyracuseACC0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
VirginiaACC0.060.0693.9493.940.060.06
Loyola MDPat0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Chicago St.WAC0.050.053.333.33-0.05-0.05
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
IdahoBSky0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
SeattleWAC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
UMKCWAC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
South DakotaSum0.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
The CitadelSC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
VMISC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
UCLAP120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.058.008.00-0.04-0.04
St. John'sBE0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Texas St.SB0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
WagnerNEC0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0512.5012.50-0.04-0.04
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.050.0575.7675.760.020.02
CornellIvy0.050.0540.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
FIUCUSA0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
HofstraCAA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
IndianaB100.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.050.0582.7682.760.030.03
NebraskaB100.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
New HampshireAE0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
RiceCUSA0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
RutgersB100.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
UTEPCUSA0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
ProvidenceBE0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
USC UpstateASun0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
PortlandWCC0.040.0424.1424.14-0.02-0.02
HarvardIvy0.040.0456.6756.670.010.01
MarylandB100.040.0458.0658.060.010.01
Stony BrookAE0.040.0438.7138.71-0.01-0.01
High PointBSth0.040.0440.7440.74-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.040.0427.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Ohio St.B100.040.0475.0075.000.020.02
PittsburghACC0.040.0425.0025.00-0.02-0.02
AmericanPat0.040.0420.0020.00-0.03-0.03
ArmyPat0.040.0441.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.040.0438.7138.71-0.01-0.01
LafayettePat0.040.0430.0030.00-0.02-0.02
LehighPat0.040.0451.7251.720.000.00
NavyPat0.040.0461.2961.290.010.01
VermontAE0.040.0478.7978.790.020.02
LouisvilleACC0.040.0460.6160.610.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
DelawareCAA0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
MontanaBSky0.030.0377.4277.420.010.01
OaklandHorz0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Cal PolyBW0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.020.0214.2914.29-0.02-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
ValparaisoMVC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Weber St.BSky0.020.0260.7160.710.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.020.026.676.67-0.02-0.02
HawaiiBW0.020.0253.5753.570.000.00
North DakotaBSky0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.020.0216.6716.67-0.02-0.02
UTSACUSA0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
BelmontOVC0.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.020.0226.9226.92-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.020.0215.6215.62-0.02-0.02
DrakeMVC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.020.0224.2424.24-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
RadfordBSth0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Seton HallBE0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
WisconsinB100.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
BryantNEC0.020.029.689.68-0.02-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.020.0262.0762.070.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.020.0217.8617.86-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
LibertyBSth0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.020.0232.0032.00-0.01-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.020.0284.8584.850.020.02
BYUWCC0.020.0270.5970.590.010.01
La SalleA100.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
RichmondA100.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
SienaMAAC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.020.0255.8855.880.000.00
DavidsonA100.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00