BYU

Conference:	WCC
Expected RPI:	67.0
Current RPI:	67
Expected SOS:	117
Current SOS:	117
Current Record:	24-10
Expected Record:	24-10
Current Conf Record:	13-8
Expected Conf Record:	13-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	3-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	8-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	12-1
Current OOC Record:	11-2
Expected OOC Record:	11-2
Expected OOC RPI:	38
Expected OOC SOS:	148

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
24-10	67.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for BYU.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-11	Mississippi Valley St. (349.0)	SWAC	H	91-61	W	100%
11-15	Princeton (226.0)	Ivy	A	56-65	W	100%
11-18	UT Arlington (108.0)	SB	H	75-89	L	0%
11-21	Niagara (163.0)	MAAC	H	95-88	W	100%
11-24	Alabama (42.0)	SEC	N	59-71	L	0%
11-25	Massachusetts (240.0)	A10	N	68-66	W	100%
11-29	Utah Valley (83.0)	WAC	A	58-85	W	100%
12-2	Utah St. (152.0)	MWC	A	66-75	W	100%
12-6	Illinois St. (85.0)	MVC	H	80-68	W	100%
12-9	Weber St. (162.0)	BSky	N	74-68	W	100%
12-16	Utah (59.0)	P12	H	77-65	W	100%
12-21	Idaho St. (268.0)	BSky	H	85-71	W	100%
12-23	Texas Southern (222.0)	SWAC	H	73-52	W	100%
12-28	Portland (285.0)	WCC	H	69-45	W	100%
12-30	Saint Mary's (40.0)	WCC	H	64-74	L	0%
1-4	San Francisco (139.0)	WCC	A	59-69	W	100%
1-6	Pacific (190.0)	WCC	A	67-66	L	0%
1-11	Pepperdine (317.0)	WCC	H	83-63	W	100%
1-13	Santa Clara (264.0)	WCC	A	50-84	W	100%
1-18	Loyola Marymount (258.0)	WCC	H	82-67	W	100%
1-20	San Diego (143.0)	WCC	H	74-58	W	100%
1-25	Saint Mary's (40.0)	WCC	A	75-62	L	0%
1-27	Pacific (190.0)	WCC	H	80-65	W	100%
2-1	Loyola Marymount (258.0)	WCC	A	76-69	L	0%
2-3	Gonzaga (21.0)	WCC	A	68-60	L	0%
2-8	Santa Clara (264.0)	WCC	H	80-58	W	100%
2-10	San Francisco (139.0)	WCC	H	75-73	W	100%
2-15	Pepperdine (317.0)	WCC	A	70-75	W	100%
2-17	San Diego (143.0)	WCC	A	75-62	L	0%
2-22	Portland (285.0)	WCC	A	60-72	W	100%
2-24	Gonzaga (21.0)	WCC	H	65-79	L	0%
3-3	San Diego (143.0)	WCC	N	85-79	W	100%
3-5	Saint Mary's (40.0)	WCC	N	72-85	W	100%
3-6	Gonzaga (21.0)	WCC	N	74-54	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

BYU's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

BYU's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against BYU.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
BYU	WCC	26.51	26.51	70.13	70.13	10.67	10.67
Gonzaga	WCC	5.41	5.41	87.10	87.10	4.02	4.02
Saint Mary's	WCC	5.32	5.32	86.67	86.67	3.90	3.90
San Diego	WCC	5.26	5.26	59.26	59.26	0.97	0.97
Pepperdine	WCC	3.98	3.98	17.24	17.24	-2.61	-2.61
Loyola Marymount	WCC	3.97	3.97	32.14	32.14	-1.42	-1.42
San Francisco	WCC	3.95	3.95	56.67	56.67	0.53	0.53
Pacific	WCC	3.89	3.89	41.38	41.38	-0.67	-0.67
Portland	WCC	3.88	3.88	25.93	25.93	-1.87	-1.87
Santa Clara	WCC	3.88	3.88	37.04	37.04	-1.01	-1.01
Weber St.	BSky	1.62	1.62	62.96	62.96	0.42	0.42
Utah St.	MWC	1.61	1.61	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Texas Southern	SWAC	1.58	1.58	45.45	45.45	-0.14	-0.14
UT Arlington	SB	1.56	1.56	59.38	59.38	0.29	0.29
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	1.56	1.56	12.90	12.90	-1.16	-1.16
Idaho St.	BSky	1.55	1.55	44.44	44.44	-0.17	-0.17
Utah Valley	WAC	1.52	1.52	67.86	67.86	0.54	0.54
Utah	P12	1.52	1.52	65.52	65.52	0.47	0.47
Niagara	MAAC	1.52	1.52	61.29	61.29	0.34	0.34
Massachusetts	A10	1.49	1.49	40.62	40.62	-0.28	-0.28
Alabama	SEC	1.49	1.49	54.55	54.55	0.14	0.14
Illinois St.	MVC	1.47	1.47	54.84	54.84	0.14	0.14
Princeton	Ivy	1.47	1.47	44.44	44.44	-0.16	-0.16
San Jose St.	MWC	0.31	0.31	10.34	10.34	-0.25	-0.25
Portland St.	BSky	0.28	0.28	56.67	56.67	0.04	0.04
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.27	0.27	16.67	16.67	-0.18	-0.18
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.26	0.26	40.00	40.00	-0.05	-0.05
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.23	0.23	13.33	13.33	-0.17	-0.17
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.22	0.22	62.07	62.07	0.05	0.05
Nevada	MWC	0.21	0.21	79.41	79.41	0.12	0.12
North Dakota	BSky	0.20	0.20	33.33	33.33	-0.07	-0.07
Seattle	WAC	0.19	0.19	56.67	56.67	0.03	0.03
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.19	0.19	83.33	83.33	0.13	0.13
Boise St.	MWC	0.19	0.19	73.33	73.33	0.09	0.09
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.18	0.18	61.29	61.29	0.04	0.04
Southern Utah	BSky	0.18	0.18	36.67	36.67	-0.05	-0.05
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.17	0.17	65.62	65.62	0.05	0.05
UC Riverside	BW	0.17	0.17	24.14	24.14	-0.09	-0.09
Arizona St.	P12	0.17	0.17	64.52	64.52	0.05	0.05
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.17	0.17	70.00	70.00	0.07	0.07
UC Davis	BW	0.17	0.17	66.67	66.67	0.06	0.06
Washington St.	P12	0.16	0.16	38.71	38.71	-0.04	-0.04
Washington	P12	0.16	0.16	62.50	62.50	0.04	0.04
San Diego St.	MWC	0.16	0.16	67.74	67.74	0.06	0.06
Cal Poly	BW	0.15	0.15	24.14	24.14	-0.08	-0.08
Harvard	Ivy	0.14	0.14	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
UNLV	MWC	0.14	0.14	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.14	0.14	57.14	57.14	0.02	0.02
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.14	0.14	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.13	0.13	9.68	9.68	-0.11	-0.11
USC	P12	0.13	0.13	67.65	67.65	0.04	0.04
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.12	0.12	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Colorado	P12	0.12	0.12	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Valparaiso	MVC	0.12	0.12	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
Stanford	P12	0.12	0.12	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Incarnate Word	Slnd	0.11	0.11	12.50	12.50	-0.09	-0.09
Wyoming	MWC	0.11	0.11	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Texas A&M	SEC	0.11	0.11	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Dayton	A10	0.11	0.11	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.11	0.11	25.81	25.81	-0.05	-0.05
Georgia	SEC	0.11	0.11	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Florida	SEC	0.11	0.11	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Idaho	BSky	0.10	0.10	68.97	68.97	0.04	0.04
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.10	0.10	14.29	14.29	-0.07	-0.07
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.10	0.10	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Little Rock	SB	0.10	0.10	20.00	20.00	-0.06	-0.06
North Texas	CUSA	0.10	0.10	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Canisius	MAAC	0.09	0.09	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Long Beach St.	BW	0.09	0.09	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Air Force	MWC	0.09	0.09	34.48	34.48	-0.03	-0.03
Texas St.	SB	0.09	0.09	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola Chicago	MVC	0.09	0.09	84.38	84.38	0.06	0.06
California	P12	0.09	0.09	25.81	25.81	-0.04	-0.04
Duquesne	A10	0.09	0.09	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.09	0.09	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.09	0.09	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.09	0.09	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Southern	SWAC	0.09	0.09	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia St.	SB	0.09	0.09	68.75	68.75	0.03	0.03
UC Irvine	BW	0.09	0.09	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Creighton	BE	0.09	0.09	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
Ohio St.	B10	0.09	0.09	75.00	75.00	0.04	0.04
Texas	B12	0.09	0.09	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Hawaii	BW	0.08	0.08	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	0.08	0.08	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.08	0.08	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Cornell	Ivy	0.08	0.08	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Montana St.	BSky	0.07	0.07	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Oregon St.	P12	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Robert Morris	NEC	0.07	0.07	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.07	0.07	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Oklahoma	B12	0.07	0.07	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Bradley	MVC	0.07	0.07	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.07	0.07	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Monmouth	MAAC	0.07	0.07	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Fresno St.	MWC	0.07	0.07	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Arizona	P12	0.07	0.07	79.41	79.41	0.04	0.04
Oregon	P12	0.07	0.07	64.71	64.71	0.02	0.02
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.07	0.07	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.07	0.07	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Fairfield	MAAC	0.07	0.07	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Indiana St.	MVC	0.07	0.07	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.07	0.07	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.07	0.07	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.07	0.07	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Quinnipiac	MAAC	0.07	0.07	36.36	36.36	-0.02	-0.02
Minnesota	B10	0.07	0.07	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
South Carolina	SEC	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Appalachian St.	SB	0.07	0.07	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
George Mason	A10	0.07	0.07	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
La Salle	A10	0.07	0.07	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.07	0.07	80.65	80.65	0.04	0.04
New Mexico	MWC	0.07	0.07	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
UNC Asheville	BSth	0.07	0.07	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Rhode Island	A10	0.07	0.07	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Auburn	SEC	0.06	0.06	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Howard	MEAC	0.06	0.06	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
IUPUI	Horz	0.06	0.06	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
Villanova	BE	0.06	0.06	88.24	88.24	0.05	0.05
Brown	Ivy	0.05	0.05	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Columbia	Ivy	0.05	0.05	26.92	26.92	-0.02	-0.02
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.05	0.05	23.08	23.08	-0.03	-0.03
Montana	BSky	0.05	0.05	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
Penn	Ivy	0.05	0.05	74.19	74.19	0.03	0.03
Yale	Ivy	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Butler	BE	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Chicago St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	3.33	3.33	-0.05	-0.05
DePaul	BE	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Hartford	AE	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.05	0.05	71.43	71.43	0.02	0.02
UMKC	WAC	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
Akron	MAC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	32.00	32.00	-0.02	-0.02
UCLA	P12	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
George Washington	A10	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Belmont	OVC	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Missouri	SEC	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Drake	MVC	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Evansville	MVC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Manhattan	MAAC	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Marist	MAAC	0.05	0.05	19.35	19.35	-0.03	-0.03
Missouri St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Radford	BSth	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Saint Peter's	MAAC	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Tulsa	Amer	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
New Hampshire	AE	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Coastal Carolina	SB	0.04	0.04	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.04	0.04	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Georgia Southern	SB	0.04	0.04	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.04	0.04	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Western Carolina	SC	0.04	0.04	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
LSU	SEC	0.04	0.04	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.04	0.04	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Lafayette	Pat	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Lehigh	Pat	0.03	0.03	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Miami FL	ACC	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.03	0.03	76.67	76.67	0.01	0.01
Duke	ACC	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
UTSA	CUSA	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.02	0.02	8.00	8.00	-0.02	-0.02
Army	Pat	0.02	0.02	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Buffalo	MAC	0.02	0.02	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.02	0.02	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.02	0.02	32.35	32.35	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Kent St.	MAC	0.02	0.02	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Murray St.	OVC	0.02	0.02	82.76	82.76	0.02	0.02
Rider	MAAC	0.02	0.02	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Samford	SC	0.02	0.02	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Siena	MAAC	0.02	0.02	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.02	0.02	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.02	0.02	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Arkansas St.	SB	0.02	0.02	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Davidson	A10	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Fordham	A10	0.02	0.02	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Holy Cross	Pat	0.02	0.02	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Maine	AE	0.02	0.02	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Northeastern	CAA	0.02	0.02	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
Providence	BE	0.02	0.02	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Rice	CUSA	0.02	0.02	17.24	17.24	-0.01	-0.01
Richmond	A10	0.02	0.02	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Saint Louis	A10	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
South Alabama	SB	0.02	0.02	40.00	40.00	-0.00	-0.00
Troy	SB	0.02	0.02	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
UMass Lowell	AE	0.02	0.02	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
VCU	A10	0.02	0.02	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Arkansas	SEC	0.02	0.02	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Baylor	B12	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Clemson	ACC	0.02	0.02	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Kansas	B12	0.02	0.02	79.41	79.41	0.01	0.01
Lipscomb	ASun	0.02	0.02	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.02	0.02	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Memphis	Amer	0.02	0.02	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Mercer	SC	0.02	0.02	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Oakland	Horz	0.02	0.02	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Syracuse	ACC	0.02	0.02	60.61	60.61	0.00	0.00
TCU	B12	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.02	0.02	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
Toledo	MAC	0.02	0.02	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
UCF	Amer	0.02	0.02	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.02	0.02	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01