Belmont

Conference:	OVC
Expected RPI:	81.0
Current RPI:	81
Expected SOS:	179
Current SOS:	179
Current Record:	24-9
Expected Record:	24-9
Current Conf Record:	16-4
Expected Conf Record:	16-4
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	7-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	14-0
Current OOC Record:	8-5
Expected OOC Record:	8-5
Expected OOC RPI:	89
Expected OOC SOS:	105

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
24-9	81.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Belmont.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Washington (71.0)	P12	A	86-82	L	0%
11-13	Vanderbilt (132.0)	SEC	H	69-60	W	100%
11-16	Middle Tennessee (33.0)	CUSA	A	63-69	W	100%
11-18	Houston Baptist (345.0)	Slnd	H	93-88	W	100%
11-19	Seattle (165.0)	WAC	H	90-77	W	100%
11-22	Providence (32.0)	BE	A	66-65	L	0%
11-27	Lipscomb (101.0)	ASun	H	66-74	L	0%
11-29	TCU (26.0)	B12	A	87-76	L	0%
12-2	Green Bay (303.0)	Horz	H	86-75	W	100%
12-4	Lipscomb (101.0)	ASun	A	69-54	L	0%
12-13	Milwaukee (231.0)	Horz	H	82-63	W	100%
12-16	Pepperdine (317.0)	WCC	H	79-62	W	100%
12-19	Western Kentucky (39.0)	CUSA	A	72-75	W	100%
12-28	Southeast Missouri St. (257.0)	OVC	A	72-94	W	100%
12-30	Tennessee Martin (306.0)	OVC	A	58-65	W	100%
1-4	Tennessee Tech (158.0)	OVC	H	80-67	W	100%
1-6	Jacksonville St. (149.0)	OVC	H	60-64	L	0%
1-11	SIU Edwardsville (287.0)	OVC	A	61-76	W	100%
1-13	Eastern Illinois (262.0)	OVC	A	66-75	W	100%
1-18	Murray St. (48.0)	OVC	H	79-72	W	100%
1-20	Austin Peay (164.0)	OVC	H	83-59	W	100%
1-25	Eastern Illinois (262.0)	OVC	H	81-59	W	100%
1-27	SIU Edwardsville (287.0)	OVC	H	83-72	W	100%
2-1	Eastern Kentucky (271.0)	OVC	A	63-98	W	100%
2-3	Morehead St. (292.0)	OVC	A	73-83	W	100%
2-8	Tennessee St. (189.0)	OVC	A	64-56	L	0%
2-10	Tennessee Tech (158.0)	OVC	A	70-75	W	100%
2-15	Eastern Kentucky (271.0)	OVC	H	84-73	W	100%
2-17	Morehead St. (292.0)	OVC	H	108-65	W	100%
2-22	Jacksonville St. (149.0)	OVC	A	78-67	L	0%
2-24	Tennessee St. (189.0)	OVC	H	84-59	W	100%
3-2	Austin Peay (164.0)	OVC	N	79-94	W	100%
3-3	Murray St. (48.0)	OVC	N	68-51	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Belmont's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Belmont's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Belmont.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Belmont	OVC	26.35	26.35	74.83	74.83	13.09	13.09
Tennessee Tech	OVC	3.98	3.98	58.62	58.62	0.69	0.69
Tennessee St.	OVC	3.93	3.93	46.15	46.15	-0.30	-0.30
Jacksonville St.	OVC	3.91	3.91	60.00	60.00	0.78	0.78
Austin Peay	OVC	3.90	3.90	57.14	57.14	0.56	0.56
Eastern Illinois	OVC	3.88	3.88	37.04	37.04	-1.01	-1.01
Murray St.	OVC	3.87	3.87	85.19	85.19	2.72	2.72
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	3.81	3.81	32.14	32.14	-1.36	-1.36
Morehead St.	OVC	3.80	3.80	24.00	24.00	-1.97	-1.97
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	3.78	3.78	33.33	33.33	-1.26	-1.26
Lipscomb	ASun	3.19	3.19	66.67	66.67	1.06	1.06
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	2.35	2.35	42.86	42.86	-0.34	-0.34
Tennessee Martin	OVC	2.35	2.35	28.57	28.57	-1.01	-1.01
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	1.69	1.69	79.31	79.31	0.99	0.99
Western Kentucky	CUSA	1.67	1.67	71.88	71.88	0.73	0.73
Vanderbilt	SEC	1.64	1.64	38.71	38.71	-0.37	-0.37
Green Bay	Horz	1.62	1.62	34.48	34.48	-0.50	-0.50
TCU	B12	1.59	1.59	64.52	64.52	0.46	0.46
Providence	BE	1.57	1.57	60.61	60.61	0.33	0.33
Milwaukee	Horz	1.57	1.57	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Washington	P12	1.56	1.56	61.29	61.29	0.35	0.35
Houston Baptist	Slnd	1.56	1.56	11.11	11.11	-1.21	-1.21
Seattle	WAC	1.54	1.54	58.62	58.62	0.27	0.27
Pepperdine	WCC	1.52	1.52	16.67	16.67	-1.01	-1.01
IUPUI	Horz	0.26	0.26	32.14	32.14	-0.09	-0.09
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.26	0.26	28.57	28.57	-0.11	-0.11
Marshall	CUSA	0.25	0.25	69.70	69.70	0.10	0.10
Jacksonville	ASun	0.23	0.23	37.93	37.93	-0.06	-0.06
Stetson	ASun	0.23	0.23	28.57	28.57	-0.10	-0.10
Detroit	Horz	0.23	0.23	20.00	20.00	-0.14	-0.14
Wright St.	Horz	0.22	0.22	71.88	71.88	0.10	0.10
Northern Kentucky	Horz	0.21	0.21	68.97	68.97	0.08	0.08
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.21	0.21	64.52	64.52	0.06	0.06
Purdue	B10	0.18	0.18	82.35	82.35	0.12	0.12
Western Illinois	Sum	0.18	0.18	33.33	33.33	-0.06	-0.06
Oregon St.	P12	0.17	0.17	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Chattanooga	SC	0.17	0.17	25.81	25.81	-0.08	-0.08
Texas	B12	0.15	0.15	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
USC Upstate	ASun	0.15	0.15	10.71	10.71	-0.12	-0.12
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.15	0.15	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.15	0.15	65.62	65.62	0.05	0.05
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.14	0.14	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Abilene Christian	Slnd	0.13	0.13	44.44	44.44	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.13	0.13	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Saint Louis	A10	0.13	0.13	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Kansas	B12	0.13	0.13	79.41	79.41	0.07	0.07
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.12	0.12	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Xavier	BE	0.12	0.12	84.85	84.85	0.09	0.09
Kansas St.	B12	0.12	0.12	66.67	66.67	0.04	0.04
UAB	CUSA	0.12	0.12	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Creighton	BE	0.12	0.12	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.11	0.11	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
NJIT	ASun	0.10	0.10	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.10	0.10	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
South Alabama	SB	0.10	0.10	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
UMKC	WAC	0.10	0.10	27.59	27.59	-0.05	-0.05
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.10	0.10	60.71	60.71	0.02	0.02
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.10	0.10	25.81	25.81	-0.05	-0.05
Auburn	SEC	0.10	0.10	78.12	78.12	0.06	0.06
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.10	0.10	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.10	0.10	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Chicago St.	WAC	0.10	0.10	3.33	3.33	-0.09	-0.09
Butler	BE	0.10	0.10	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Rice	CUSA	0.10	0.10	17.24	17.24	-0.07	-0.07
Tennessee	SEC	0.10	0.10	75.76	75.76	0.05	0.05
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.10	0.10	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Central Michigan	MAC	0.10	0.10	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.10	0.10	32.35	32.35	-0.04	-0.04
Oakland	Horz	0.10	0.10	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.10	0.10	20.00	20.00	-0.06	-0.06
Southern Miss	CUSA	0.10	0.10	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Saint Mary's	WCC	0.10	0.10	84.85	84.85	0.07	0.07
Marquette	BE	0.10	0.10	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.10	0.10	24.14	24.14	-0.05	-0.05
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.09	0.09	78.12	78.12	0.05	0.05
Villanova	BE	0.09	0.09	88.24	88.24	0.07	0.07
Bradley	MVC	0.08	0.08	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.08	0.08	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.08	0.08	24.24	24.24	-0.04	-0.04
Evansville	MVC	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Illinois	B10	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.08	0.08	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.08	0.08	83.33	83.33	0.05	0.05
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.08	0.08	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
UTSA	CUSA	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
UNC Asheville	BSth	0.07	0.07	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Virginia	ACC	0.07	0.07	93.94	93.94	0.07	0.07
Portland	WCC	0.07	0.07	24.14	24.14	-0.04	-0.04
LSU	SEC	0.07	0.07	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Santa Clara	WCC	0.07	0.07	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
FIU	CUSA	0.07	0.07	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Wisconsin	B10	0.07	0.07	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
California	P12	0.07	0.07	25.81	25.81	-0.04	-0.04
USC	P12	0.07	0.07	67.65	67.65	0.03	0.03
Washington St.	P12	0.07	0.07	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Gonzaga	WCC	0.07	0.07	88.24	88.24	0.06	0.06
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.07	0.07	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
New Mexico	MWC	0.07	0.07	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.07	0.07	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Charlotte	CUSA	0.07	0.07	17.86	17.86	-0.05	-0.05
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.07	0.07	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Seton Hall	BE	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Canisius	MAAC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Incarnate Word	Slnd	0.05	0.05	12.50	12.50	-0.04	-0.04
Lamar	Slnd	0.05	0.05	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	32.00	32.00	-0.02	-0.02
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.05	0.05	30.77	30.77	-0.02	-0.02
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.05	0.05	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Marist	MAAC	0.05	0.05	19.35	19.35	-0.03	-0.03
Navy	Pat	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.05	0.05	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
San Diego St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Montana St.	BSky	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.05	9.68	9.68	-0.04	-0.04
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Fort Wayne	Sum	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Miami OH	MAC	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Troy	SB	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Utah Valley	WAC	0.05	0.05	65.52	65.52	0.02	0.02
Valparaiso	MVC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
UC Riverside	BW	0.05	0.05	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
Missouri	SEC	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
BYU	WCC	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Dayton	A10	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Furman	SC	0.05	0.05	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Indiana	B10	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.05	0.05	16.67	16.67	-0.03	-0.03
Pacific	WCC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
San Diego	WCC	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
San Francisco	WCC	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0.05	0.05	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
Indiana St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
North Texas	CUSA	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
UTEP	CUSA	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Texas A&M	SEC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Arizona St.	P12	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Baylor	B12	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Buffalo	MAC	0.05	0.05	75.76	75.76	0.02	0.02
Colorado	P12	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Florida	SEC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Howard	MEAC	0.05	0.05	25.81	25.81	-0.02	-0.02
Kentucky	SEC	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Oklahoma	B12	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Oregon	P12	0.05	0.05	64.71	64.71	0.01	0.01
Richmond	A10	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Samford	SC	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.02	-0.02
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Stanford	P12	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Texas Tech	B12	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Utah	P12	0.05	0.05	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
West Virginia	B12	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
SMU	Amer	0.05	0.05	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
DePaul	BE	0.04	0.04	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.04	0.04	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
St. John's	BE	0.04	0.04	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Michigan St.	B10	0.03	0.03	87.88	87.88	0.02	0.02
New Orleans	Slnd	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	8.00	8.00	-0.02	-0.02
Saint Peter's	MAAC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.03	0.03	80.00	80.00	0.02	0.02
Texas St.	SB	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Akron	MAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas St.	SB	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.03	0.03	14.29	14.29	-0.02	-0.02
Southern	SWAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Bowling Green	MAC	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Idaho St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Miami FL	ACC	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Princeton	Ivy	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Cal Poly	BW	0.02	0.02	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
Elon	CAA	0.02	0.02	40.00	40.00	-0.00	-0.00
Long Beach St.	BW	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Loyola Chicago	MVC	0.02	0.02	84.38	84.38	0.02	0.02
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.02	0.02	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.02	0.02	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Utah	BSky	0.02	0.02	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.02	0.02	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
Weber St.	BSky	0.02	0.02	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.02	0.02	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Arizona	P12	0.02	0.02	79.41	79.41	0.01	0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.02	0.02	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.02	0.02	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Montana	BSky	0.02	0.02	77.42	77.42	0.01	0.01
Nevada	MWC	0.02	0.02	79.41	79.41	0.01	0.01
Radford	BSth	0.02	0.02	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
South Dakota	Sum	0.02	0.02	73.33	73.33	0.01	0.01
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.02	0.02	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.02	0.02	44.12	44.12	-0.00	-0.00
UC Davis	BW	0.02	0.02	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
UCLA	P12	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
William & Mary	CAA	0.02	0.02	58.62	58.62	0.00	0.00
Yale	Ivy	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Missouri St.	MVC	0.02	0.02	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Ohio	MAC	0.02	0.02	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Boston College	ACC	0.02	0.02	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Brown	Ivy	0.02	0.02	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Houston	Amer	0.02	0.02	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.02	0.02	39.39	39.39	-0.00	-0.00
Minnesota	B10	0.02	0.02	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Rhode Island	A10	0.02	0.02	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Rider	MAAC	0.02	0.02	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.02	0.02	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Stony Brook	AE	0.02	0.02	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01