Bradley

Conference:	MVC
Expected RPI:	105.0
Current RPI:	105
Expected SOS:	129
Current SOS:	129
Current Record:	19-13
Expected Record:	19-13
Current Conf Record:	10-10
Expected Conf Record:	10-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	10-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	6-0
Current OOC Record:	9-3
Expected OOC Record:	9-3
Expected OOC RPI:	104
Expected OOC SOS:	279

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
19-13	105.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Bradley.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-11	IUPUI (294.0)	Horz	H	68-53	W	100%
11-14	Delaware (233.0)	CAA	H	61-53	W	100%
11-17	Vermont (60.0)	AE	N	64-65	L	0%
11-18	UTSA (187.0)	CUSA	N	69-71	W	100%
11-19	Weber St. (162.0)	BSky	N	64-70	W	100%
11-25	Georgia Southern (140.0)	SB	H	62-57	W	100%
12-1	Eastern Illinois (262.0)	OVC	H	67-56	W	100%
12-3	San Diego St. (62.0)	MWC	A	75-52	L	0%
12-13	Little Rock (308.0)	SB	H	86-46	W	100%
12-16	Chicago St. (335.0)	WAC	A	58-84	W	100%
12-20	Southeast Missouri St. (257.0)	OVC	A	67-75	W	100%
12-22	Mississippi (141.0)	SEC	A	82-59	L	0%
12-28	Drake (166.0)	MVC	A	66-64	L	0%
12-31	Northern Iowa (138.0)	MVC	H	72-53	W	100%
1-3	Valparaiso (188.0)	MVC	H	80-71	W	100%
1-6	Evansville (151.0)	MVC	A	68-44	L	0%
1-9	Southern Illinois (100.0)	MVC	H	68-62	W	100%
1-13	Loyola Chicago (22.0)	MVC	A	81-65	L	0%
1-17	Illinois St. (85.0)	MVC	A	70-57	L	0%
1-20	Evansville (151.0)	MVC	H	66-53	W	100%
1-23	Missouri St. (136.0)	MVC	H	72-52	W	100%
1-28	Indiana St. (184.0)	MVC	A	73-81	W	100%
1-31	Loyola Chicago (22.0)	MVC	H	69-67	W	100%
2-3	Drake (166.0)	MVC	H	68-78	L	0%
2-7	Northern Iowa (138.0)	MVC	A	74-65	L	0%
2-11	Southern Illinois (100.0)	MVC	A	74-57	L	0%
2-14	Illinois St. (85.0)	MVC	H	70-58	W	100%
2-17	Valparaiso (188.0)	MVC	A	77-64	L	0%
2-21	Missouri St. (136.0)	MVC	A	78-82	W	100%
2-24	Indiana St. (184.0)	MVC	H	64-66	L	0%
3-2	Drake (166.0)	MVC	N	61-63	W	100%
3-3	Loyola Chicago (22.0)	MVC	N	62-54	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Bradley's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Bradley's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Bradley.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Bradley	MVC	26.47	26.47	60.77	60.77	5.70	5.70
Loyola Chicago	MVC	5.65	5.65	86.21	86.21	4.09	4.09
Drake	MVC	5.57	5.57	46.43	46.43	-0.40	-0.40
Illinois St.	MVC	4.24	4.24	53.33	53.33	0.28	0.28
Northern Iowa	MVC	4.18	4.18	46.43	46.43	-0.30	-0.30
Missouri St.	MVC	4.16	4.16	56.67	56.67	0.56	0.56
Southern Illinois	MVC	4.16	4.16	60.00	60.00	0.83	0.83
Evansville	MVC	4.11	4.11	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Valparaiso	MVC	4.08	4.08	42.86	42.86	-0.58	-0.58
Indiana St.	MVC	4.08	4.08	37.04	37.04	-1.06	-1.06
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	1.72	1.72	42.86	42.86	-0.25	-0.25
Chicago St.	WAC	1.69	1.69	3.45	3.45	-1.57	-1.57
Eastern Illinois	OVC	1.67	1.67	35.71	35.71	-0.48	-0.48
Georgia Southern	SB	1.66	1.66	63.33	63.33	0.44	0.44
Little Rock	SB	1.61	1.61	20.69	20.69	-0.95	-0.95
Mississippi	SEC	1.61	1.61	35.48	35.48	-0.47	-0.47
IUPUI	Horz	1.59	1.59	33.33	33.33	-0.53	-0.53
San Diego St.	MWC	1.59	1.59	66.67	66.67	0.53	0.53
Delaware	CAA	1.56	1.56	40.00	40.00	-0.31	-0.31
UTSA	CUSA	1.56	1.56	55.17	55.17	0.16	0.16
Vermont	AE	1.56	1.56	78.12	78.12	0.88	0.88
Weber St.	BSky	1.56	1.56	62.96	62.96	0.41	0.41
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.26	0.26	30.00	30.00	-0.11	-0.11
Murray St.	OVC	0.21	0.21	82.76	82.76	0.13	0.13
Austin Peay	OVC	0.19	0.19	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.18	0.18	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Wright St.	Horz	0.18	0.18	71.88	71.88	0.08	0.08
UMKC	WAC	0.18	0.18	27.59	27.59	-0.08	-0.08
UNC Wilmington	CAA	0.18	0.18	30.00	30.00	-0.07	-0.07
Nevada	MWC	0.17	0.17	79.41	79.41	0.10	0.10
Boise St.	MWC	0.17	0.17	73.33	73.33	0.08	0.08
Fresno St.	MWC	0.16	0.16	63.33	63.33	0.04	0.04
Arkansas St.	SB	0.15	0.15	30.00	30.00	-0.06	-0.06
Georgia St.	SB	0.15	0.15	68.75	68.75	0.06	0.06
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.15	0.15	24.14	24.14	-0.08	-0.08
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.15	0.15	80.00	80.00	0.09	0.09
Green Bay	Horz	0.14	0.14	33.33	33.33	-0.05	-0.05
Ball St.	MAC	0.13	0.13	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.13	0.13	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Elon	CAA	0.13	0.13	40.00	40.00	-0.03	-0.03
Milwaukee	Horz	0.13	0.13	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.13	0.13	69.70	69.70	0.05	0.05
UT Arlington	SB	0.13	0.13	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	0.13	0.13	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
Coastal Carolina	SB	0.13	0.13	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Drexel	CAA	0.13	0.13	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Wyoming	MWC	0.13	0.13	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Kent St.	MAC	0.13	0.13	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Samford	SC	0.13	0.13	26.67	26.67	-0.06	-0.06
Tulsa	Amer	0.12	0.12	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
Oakland	Horz	0.11	0.11	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Morehead St.	OVC	0.11	0.11	22.22	22.22	-0.06	-0.06
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.11	0.11	27.59	27.59	-0.05	-0.05
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.11	0.11	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Purdue	B10	0.11	0.11	82.35	82.35	0.07	0.07
Utah Valley	WAC	0.11	0.11	65.52	65.52	0.03	0.03
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.11	0.11	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
North Texas	CUSA	0.11	0.11	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.11	0.11	31.03	31.03	-0.04	-0.04
Utah St.	MWC	0.11	0.11	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
James Madison	CAA	0.10	0.10	29.03	29.03	-0.04	-0.04
Air Force	MWC	0.10	0.10	34.48	34.48	-0.03	-0.03
South Alabama	SB	0.10	0.10	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Appalachian St.	SB	0.10	0.10	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Auburn	SEC	0.10	0.10	78.12	78.12	0.06	0.06
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.10	0.10	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
New Mexico	MWC	0.10	0.10	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Texas St.	SB	0.10	0.10	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
UNLV	MWC	0.10	0.10	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.10	0.10	80.65	80.65	0.06	0.06
Iowa	B10	0.10	0.10	42.42	42.42	-0.02	-0.02
Wake Forest	ACC	0.10	0.10	35.48	35.48	-0.03	-0.03
Binghamton	AE	0.10	0.10	31.03	31.03	-0.04	-0.04
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.10	0.10	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Northeastern	CAA	0.10	0.10	68.75	68.75	0.04	0.04
Colorado St.	MWC	0.10	0.10	32.26	32.26	-0.04	-0.04
San Jose St.	MWC	0.10	0.10	10.34	10.34	-0.08	-0.08
Florida	SEC	0.10	0.10	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.10	0.10	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
South Carolina	SEC	0.10	0.10	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
UMBC	AE	0.10	0.10	67.74	67.74	0.03	0.03
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.08	0.08	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Western Illinois	Sum	0.08	0.08	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.08	0.08	16.67	16.67	-0.05	-0.05
Belmont	OVC	0.08	0.08	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Northern Kentucky	Horz	0.08	0.08	68.97	68.97	0.03	0.03
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.08	0.08	83.33	83.33	0.05	0.05
Northwestern	B10	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
UTEP	CUSA	0.08	0.08	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
BYU	WCC	0.08	0.08	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
Marquette	BE	0.08	0.08	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Rice	CUSA	0.08	0.08	17.24	17.24	-0.05	-0.05
Troy	SB	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Saint Louis	A10	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Colorado	P12	0.08	0.08	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.08	0.08	16.67	16.67	-0.05	-0.05
Minnesota	B10	0.08	0.08	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
South Dakota	Sum	0.08	0.08	73.33	73.33	0.04	0.04
Towson	CAA	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0.07	0.07	32.14	32.14	-0.03	-0.03
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.07	0.07	28.57	28.57	-0.03	-0.03
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.07	0.07	12.50	12.50	-0.05	-0.05
Maine	AE	0.07	0.07	13.33	13.33	-0.05	-0.05
Stony Brook	AE	0.07	0.07	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.06	0.06	32.35	32.35	-0.02	-0.02
Detroit	Horz	0.06	0.06	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Idaho St.	BSky	0.06	0.06	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
North Dakota	BSky	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.06	0.06	13.33	13.33	-0.04	-0.04
Portland St.	BSky	0.06	0.06	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Southern Utah	BSky	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.06	0.06	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Montana St.	BSky	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Indiana	B10	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Gonzaga	WCC	0.05	0.05	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
Washington St.	P12	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.05	0.05	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Bowling Green	MAC	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Canisius	MAAC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Duke	ACC	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Iowa St.	B12	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
North Carolina	ACC	0.05	0.05	71.43	71.43	0.02	0.02
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Santa Clara	WCC	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Seattle	WAC	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
SMU	Amer	0.05	0.05	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.05	0.05	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Southern Miss	CUSA	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
UC Riverside	BW	0.05	0.05	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Villanova	BE	0.05	0.05	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
Xavier	BE	0.05	0.05	84.85	84.85	0.04	0.04
Notre Dame	ACC	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
San Diego	WCC	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.05	0.05	76.67	76.67	0.03	0.03
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.05	0.05	30.77	30.77	-0.02	-0.02
College of Charleston	CAA	0.05	0.05	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
Hofstra	CAA	0.05	0.05	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
William & Mary	CAA	0.05	0.05	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Richmond	A10	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Yale	Ivy	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Arkansas	SEC	0.05	0.05	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.05	0.05	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Hampton	MEAC	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Lamar	Slnd	0.05	0.05	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Louisville	ACC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Manhattan	MAAC	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Missouri	SEC	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Southern	SWAC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.05	0.05	75.76	75.76	0.03	0.03
Winthrop	BSth	0.05	0.05	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Albany	AE	0.05	0.05	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Hartford	AE	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
New Hampshire	AE	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
UMass Lowell	AE	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Idaho	BSky	0.03	0.03	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Montana	BSky	0.03	0.03	77.42	77.42	0.02	0.02
Pepperdine	WCC	0.03	0.03	16.13	16.13	-0.02	-0.02
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.03	0.03	14.29	14.29	-0.02	-0.02
Kansas St.	B12	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Charlotte	CUSA	0.03	0.03	17.86	17.86	-0.02	-0.02
FIU	CUSA	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.03	0.03	10.71	10.71	-0.02	-0.02
Memphis	Amer	0.03	0.03	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Oklahoma	B12	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Presbyterian	BSth	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Robert Morris	NEC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
UAB	CUSA	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Western Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Wisconsin	B10	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Arizona St.	P12	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.03	0.03	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
California	P12	0.03	0.03	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Cornell	Ivy	0.03	0.03	40.74	40.74	-0.00	-0.00
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	6.67	6.67	-0.02	-0.02
East Tennessee St.	SC	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
George Mason	A10	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Longwood	BSth	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	32.00	32.00	-0.01	-0.01
Navy	Pat	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
UNC Greensboro	SC	0.03	0.03	77.42	77.42	0.01	0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.02	0.02	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
LSU	SEC	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Texas	B12	0.02	0.02	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Texas A&M	SEC	0.02	0.02	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Utah	P12	0.02	0.02	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.02	0.02	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Bucknell	Pat	0.02	0.02	73.53	73.53	0.01	0.01
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.02	0.02	23.08	23.08	-0.01	-0.01
Harvard	Ivy	0.02	0.02	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Quinnipiac	MAAC	0.02	0.02	36.36	36.36	-0.01	-0.01
Siena	MAAC	0.02	0.02	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.02	0.02	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01