Bryant

Conference:	NEC
Expected RPI:	341.0
Current RPI:	341
Expected SOS:	272
Current SOS:	272
Current Record:	3-28
Expected Record:	3-28
Current Conf Record:	2-16
Expected Conf Record:	2-16
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	1-10
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	2-15
Current OOC Record:	1-12
Expected OOC Record:	1-12
Expected OOC RPI:	326
Expected OOC SOS:	226

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
3-28	341.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Bryant.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Georgia (79.0)	SEC	A	79-54	L	0%
11-14	North Carolina St. (64.0)	ACC	A	95-72	L	0%
11-18	Navy (200.0)	Pat	H	71-79	L	0%
11-21	Rutgers (203.0)	B10	A	83-54	L	0%
11-24	Hartford (198.0)	AE	A	73-78	W	100%
11-26	Brown (298.0)	Ivy	H	67-81	L	0%
11-29	Yale (183.0)	Ivy	A	84-67	L	0%
12-2	New Hampshire (312.0)	AE	A	75-59	L	0%
12-6	Albany (142.0)	AE	A	84-68	L	0%
12-9	Memphis (106.0)	Amer	A	90-72	L	0%
12-11	Louisville (38.0)	ACC	A	102-59	L	0%
12-17	Siena (299.0)	MAAC	H	68-87	L	0%
12-22	Dartmouth (334.0)	Ivy	A	75-58	L	0%
12-29	Robert Morris (196.0)	NEC	H	54-68	L	0%
12-31	St. Francis PA (178.0)	NEC	H	82-86	L	0%
1-4	Mount St. Mary's (225.0)	NEC	A	96-80	L	0%
1-6	Sacred Heart (321.0)	NEC	A	74-79	W	100%
1-11	Wagner (109.0)	NEC	H	62-71	L	0%
1-13	Central Connecticut (263.0)	NEC	A	80-76	L	0%
1-18	LIU Brooklyn (232.0)	NEC	A	83-79	L	0%
1-20	St. Francis NY (276.0)	NEC	A	85-80	L	0%
1-25	Central Connecticut (263.0)	NEC	H	74-80	L	0%
1-27	Fairleigh Dickinson (254.0)	NEC	H	78-89	L	0%
2-1	St. Francis NY (276.0)	NEC	H	69-73	L	0%
2-3	LIU Brooklyn (232.0)	NEC	H	71-84	L	0%
2-8	Wagner (109.0)	NEC	A	96-76	L	0%
2-10	Mount St. Mary's (225.0)	NEC	H	79-77	W	100%
2-15	Robert Morris (196.0)	NEC	A	83-60	L	0%
2-17	St. Francis PA (178.0)	NEC	A	89-56	L	0%
2-22	Sacred Heart (321.0)	NEC	H	84-94	L	0%
2-24	Fairleigh Dickinson (254.0)	NEC	A	87-83	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Bryant's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Bryant's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Bryant.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Bryant	NEC	26.30	26.30	11.72	11.72	-20.13	-20.13
LIU Brooklyn	NEC	4.33	4.33	48.39	48.39	-0.14	-0.14
Wagner	NEC	4.25	4.25	67.86	67.86	1.52	1.52
Robert Morris	NEC	4.24	4.24	45.16	45.16	-0.41	-0.41
Central Connecticut	NEC	4.22	4.22	40.00	40.00	-0.84	-0.84
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	4.20	4.20	33.33	33.33	-1.40	-1.40
St. Francis NY	NEC	4.18	4.18	33.33	33.33	-1.39	-1.39
St. Francis PA	NEC	4.15	4.15	53.85	53.85	0.32	0.32
Sacred Heart	NEC	4.13	4.13	28.57	28.57	-1.77	-1.77
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	4.12	4.12	53.57	53.57	0.29	0.29
Hartford	AE	2.03	2.03	60.00	60.00	0.41	0.41
Brown	Ivy	1.88	1.88	36.00	36.00	-0.53	-0.53
Albany	AE	1.85	1.85	66.67	66.67	0.62	0.62
Dartmouth	Ivy	1.84	1.84	20.00	20.00	-1.10	-1.10
New Hampshire	AE	1.77	1.77	25.00	25.00	-0.89	-0.89
Louisville	ACC	1.77	1.77	59.38	59.38	0.33	0.33
Yale	Ivy	1.76	1.76	48.28	48.28	-0.06	-0.06
Rutgers	B10	1.74	1.74	40.62	40.62	-0.33	-0.33
Siena	MAAC	1.74	1.74	22.58	22.58	-0.95	-0.95
Memphis	Amer	1.69	1.69	60.61	60.61	0.36	0.36
North Carolina St.	ACC	1.69	1.69	64.52	64.52	0.49	0.49
Navy	Pat	1.67	1.67	60.00	60.00	0.33	0.33
Georgia	SEC	1.61	1.61	53.12	53.12	0.10	0.10
UMass Lowell	AE	0.40	0.40	37.93	37.93	-0.10	-0.10
Stony Brook	AE	0.35	0.35	38.71	38.71	-0.08	-0.08
Maine	AE	0.29	0.29	13.33	13.33	-0.22	-0.22
Holy Cross	Pat	0.27	0.27	38.71	38.71	-0.06	-0.06
Saint Peter's	MAAC	0.26	0.26	43.75	43.75	-0.03	-0.03
Binghamton	AE	0.26	0.26	31.03	31.03	-0.10	-0.10
American	Pat	0.24	0.24	20.00	20.00	-0.15	-0.15
Vermont	AE	0.24	0.24	78.79	78.79	0.14	0.14
Boston College	ACC	0.24	0.24	55.88	55.88	0.03	0.03
Princeton	Ivy	0.23	0.23	42.86	42.86	-0.03	-0.03
Penn	Ivy	0.23	0.23	74.19	74.19	0.11	0.11
Columbia	Ivy	0.23	0.23	26.92	26.92	-0.11	-0.11
Lehigh	Pat	0.22	0.22	51.72	51.72	0.01	0.01
Notre Dame	ACC	0.22	0.22	57.58	57.58	0.03	0.03
NJIT	ASun	0.21	0.21	42.86	42.86	-0.03	-0.03
UMBC	AE	0.19	0.19	67.74	67.74	0.07	0.07
Fairfield	MAAC	0.18	0.18	51.52	51.52	0.01	0.01
Cornell	Ivy	0.18	0.18	40.74	40.74	-0.03	-0.03
Harvard	Ivy	0.18	0.18	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Quinnipiac	MAAC	0.16	0.16	36.36	36.36	-0.04	-0.04
Loyola MD	Pat	0.16	0.16	26.67	26.67	-0.07	-0.07
Iona	MAAC	0.16	0.16	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
Seton Hall	BE	0.16	0.16	65.62	65.62	0.05	0.05
Canisius	MAAC	0.16	0.16	65.62	65.62	0.05	0.05
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.15	0.15	15.62	15.62	-0.11	-0.11
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.15	0.15	25.00	25.00	-0.08	-0.08
Rider	MAAC	0.15	0.15	70.97	70.97	0.06	0.06
Fordham	A10	0.13	0.13	29.03	29.03	-0.05	-0.05
Florida St.	ACC	0.12	0.12	64.52	64.52	0.04	0.04
East Carolina	Amer	0.12	0.12	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
Niagara	MAAC	0.11	0.11	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Northwestern	B10	0.11	0.11	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Army	Pat	0.11	0.11	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
Duke	ACC	0.11	0.11	78.79	78.79	0.06	0.06
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.11	0.11	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
Manhattan	MAAC	0.11	0.11	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Boston University	Pat	0.11	0.11	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Lafayette	Pat	0.11	0.11	30.00	30.00	-0.04	-0.04
Penn St.	B10	0.11	0.11	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
Duquesne	A10	0.10	0.10	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
St. John's	BE	0.10	0.10	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Monmouth	MAAC	0.10	0.10	35.48	35.48	-0.03	-0.03
Missouri	SEC	0.10	0.10	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.10	0.10	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Virginia	ACC	0.10	0.10	93.94	93.94	0.09	0.09
Ohio St.	B10	0.10	0.10	75.00	75.00	0.05	0.05
Purdue	B10	0.10	0.10	82.35	82.35	0.06	0.06
Tulane	Amer	0.10	0.10	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Providence	BE	0.08	0.08	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
Saint Mary's	WCC	0.08	0.08	84.85	84.85	0.06	0.06
Denver	Sum	0.08	0.08	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Marist	MAAC	0.08	0.08	19.35	19.35	-0.05	-0.05
Maryland	B10	0.08	0.08	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Marquette	BE	0.08	0.08	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Colgate	Pat	0.08	0.08	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Bucknell	Pat	0.08	0.08	73.53	73.53	0.04	0.04
Florida	SEC	0.08	0.08	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Miami FL	ACC	0.08	0.08	70.97	70.97	0.03	0.03
Miami OH	MAC	0.07	0.07	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Clemson	ACC	0.07	0.07	71.88	71.88	0.03	0.03
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.07	0.07	32.35	32.35	-0.03	-0.03
North Carolina	ACC	0.07	0.07	71.43	71.43	0.03	0.03
Wake Forest	ACC	0.07	0.07	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Tennessee	SEC	0.07	0.07	75.76	75.76	0.04	0.04
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Indiana	B10	0.07	0.07	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Kentucky	SEC	0.07	0.07	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
Little Rock	SB	0.07	0.07	20.00	20.00	-0.04	-0.04
LSU	SEC	0.07	0.07	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Cincinnati	Amer	0.07	0.07	88.24	88.24	0.05	0.05
South Florida	Amer	0.07	0.07	31.25	31.25	-0.03	-0.03
Tulsa	Amer	0.07	0.07	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Longwood	BSth	0.06	0.06	13.33	13.33	-0.04	-0.04
San Francisco	WCC	0.06	0.06	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Dayton	A10	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
North Florida	ASun	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Delaware	CAA	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.02	-0.02
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Wisconsin	B10	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
DePaul	BE	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Syracuse	ACC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Buffalo	MAC	0.05	0.05	75.76	75.76	0.03	0.03
Drexel	CAA	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois	B10	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.05	0.05	87.88	87.88	0.04	0.04
Minnesota	B10	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Nebraska	B10	0.05	0.05	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
San Diego	WCC	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Alabama	SEC	0.05	0.05	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Temple	Amer	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Connecticut	Amer	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
UCF	Amer	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Rhode Island	A10	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Furman	SC	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
George Washington	A10	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Texas	B12	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Utah St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Creighton	BE	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
TCU	B12	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
FIU	CUSA	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Lipscomb	ASun	0.03	0.03	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
Portland	WCC	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
Arizona	P12	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.01	0.01
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
College of Charleston	CAA	0.03	0.03	77.42	77.42	0.01	0.01
Hofstra	CAA	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Jacksonville	ASun	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Presbyterian	BSth	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
UMKC	WAC	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
UNC Greensboro	SC	0.03	0.03	77.42	77.42	0.01	0.01
VMI	SC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.02	0.02	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.02	0.02	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
George Mason	A10	0.02	0.02	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Iowa	B10	0.02	0.02	42.42	42.42	-0.00	-0.00
Kansas St.	B12	0.02	0.02	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.02	0.02	39.39	39.39	-0.01	-0.01
Michigan	B10	0.02	0.02	79.41	79.41	0.01	0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.02	0.02	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.02	0.02	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
San Diego St.	MWC	0.02	0.02	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.02	0.02	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Texas A&M	SEC	0.02	0.02	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.02	0.02	30.77	30.77	-0.01	-0.01
USC Upstate	ASun	0.02	0.02	10.71	10.71	-0.02	-0.02
Winthrop	BSth	0.02	0.02	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Houston	Amer	0.02	0.02	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
Mercer	SC	0.02	0.02	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
New Orleans	Slnd	0.02	0.02	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Northern Kentucky	Horz	0.02	0.02	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
Samford	SC	0.02	0.02	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
SMU	Amer	0.02	0.02	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
UAB	CUSA	0.02	0.02	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Wichita St.	Amer	0.02	0.02	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01