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Through games of Mar 11, 2018.


Cincinnati

Conference:Amer
Expected RPI:6.0
Current RPI:6
Expected SOS:45
Current SOS:45
Current Record:30-4
Expected Record:30-4
Current Conf Record:19-2
Expected Conf Record:19-2
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:7-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:11-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-0
Current OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC RPI:28
Expected OOC SOS:142



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
30-46.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Cincinnati.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Savannah St. (197.0)MEACH107-77W100%0.0
11-13Western Carolina (215.0)SCH102-51W100%0.0
11-16Coppin St. (343.0)MEACH97-54W100%0.0
11-20Buffalo (25.0)MACN73-67W100%0.0
11-21Richmond (176.0)A10N75-48W100%0.0
11-22Wyoming (98.0)MWCN78-53W100%0.0
11-27Alabama St. (333.0)SWACH83-51W100%0.0
12-2Xavier (3.0)BEA89-76L0%0.0
12-9Florida (46.0)SECN60-66L0%0.0
12-12Mississippi St. (73.0)SECH65-50W100%0.0
12-16UCLA (36.0)P12A63-77W100%0.0
12-19Arkansas Pine Bluff (307.0)SWACH77-49W100%0.0
12-21Cleveland St. (282.0)HorzH81-62W100%0.0
12-31Memphis (106.0)AmerH82-48W100%0.0
1-4Temple (52.0)AmerA53-55W100%0.0
1-7SMU (113.0)AmerH76-56W100%0.0
1-13South Florida (278.0)AmerA55-78W100%0.0
1-16UCF (84.0)AmerA38-49W100%0.0
1-20East Carolina (274.0)AmerH86-60W100%0.0
1-24Temple (52.0)AmerH75-42W100%0.0
1-27Memphis (106.0)AmerA48-62W100%0.0
1-31Houston (18.0)AmerH80-70W100%0.0
2-3Connecticut (123.0)AmerA57-65W100%0.0
2-6UCF (84.0)AmerH77-40W100%0.0
2-11SMU (113.0)AmerA51-76W100%0.0
2-15Houston (18.0)AmerA67-62L0%0.0
2-18Wichita St. (16.0)AmerH72-76L0%0.0
2-22Connecticut (123.0)AmerH77-52W100%0.0
2-25Tulsa (89.0)AmerH82-74W100%0.0
3-1Tulane (175.0)AmerA49-78W100%0.0
3-4Wichita St. (16.0)AmerA61-62W100%0.0
3-9SMU (113.0)AmerN61-51W100%0.0
3-10Memphis (106.0)AmerN70-60W100%0.0
3-11Houston (18.0)AmerN56-55W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Cincinnati's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Cincinnati's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Cincinnati.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
CincinnatiAmer26.3626.3688.4688.4620.2720.27
HoustonAmer5.145.1483.3383.333.433.43
SMUAmer5.125.1256.6756.670.680.68
MemphisAmer5.065.0667.7467.741.791.79
Wichita St.Amer3.813.8180.0080.002.282.28
UCFAmer3.763.7663.3363.331.001.00
ConnecticutAmer3.713.7146.6746.67-0.25-0.25
TempleAmer3.693.6956.6756.670.490.49
East CarolinaAmer2.332.3334.4834.48-0.72-0.72
South FloridaAmer2.312.3132.2632.26-0.82-0.82
TulaneAmer2.292.2946.6746.67-0.15-0.15
TulsaAmer2.262.2663.3363.330.600.60
Coppin St.MEAC1.591.5916.1316.13-1.08-1.08
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC1.581.5841.1841.18-0.28-0.28
Savannah St.MEAC1.561.5644.8344.83-0.16-0.16
Alabama St.SWAC1.561.5626.6726.67-0.73-0.73
Cleveland St.Horz1.521.5233.3333.33-0.51-0.51
Mississippi St.SEC1.521.5267.7467.740.540.54
FloridaSEC1.491.4961.2961.290.340.34
BuffaloMAC1.471.4778.1278.120.830.83
RichmondA101.471.4738.7138.71-0.33-0.33
UCLAP121.471.4767.7467.740.520.52
Western CarolinaSC1.471.4737.9337.93-0.35-0.35
WyomingMWC1.471.4761.2961.290.330.33
XavierBE1.471.4784.3884.381.011.01
AlabamaSEC0.200.2055.8855.880.020.02
LSUSEC0.200.2054.8454.840.020.02
New OrleansSlnd0.200.2042.8642.86-0.03-0.03
ArkansasSEC0.180.1867.6567.650.060.06
SouthernSWAC0.180.1841.9441.94-0.03-0.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.180.1845.4545.45-0.02-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.160.1626.6726.67-0.08-0.08
South CarolinaSEC0.160.1650.0050.000.000.00
MercerSC0.160.1653.3353.330.010.01
ArizonaP120.160.1679.4179.410.090.09
Texas SouthernSWAC0.160.1644.1244.12-0.02-0.02
OregonP120.140.1464.7164.710.040.04
AuburnSEC0.140.1478.1278.120.080.08
VillanovaBE0.140.1488.2488.240.100.10
ProvidenceBE0.130.1361.7661.760.030.03
Northern KentuckyHorz0.130.1368.9768.970.050.05
Morgan St.MEAC0.120.1236.6736.67-0.03-0.03
HamptonMEAC0.120.1251.6151.610.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
BaylorB120.120.1254.8454.840.010.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.110.1180.0080.000.070.07
GeorgiaSEC0.110.1154.5554.550.010.01
MissouriSEC0.110.1161.2961.290.030.03
George WashingtonA100.110.1145.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.110.119.689.68-0.09-0.09
Grambling St.SWAC0.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
SamfordSC0.110.1126.6726.67-0.05-0.05
Alcorn St.SWAC0.110.1125.0025.00-0.06-0.06
Boise St.MWC0.110.1173.3373.330.050.05
DrexelCAA0.110.1137.5037.50-0.03-0.03
Saint LouisA100.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
St. John'sBE0.110.1146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
USCP120.110.1167.6567.650.040.04
Kent St.MAC0.110.1148.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.110.1112.5012.50-0.08-0.08
UABCUSA0.110.1158.0658.060.020.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.100.1071.8871.880.040.04
ChattanoogaSC0.100.1025.8125.81-0.05-0.05
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.090.0951.6151.610.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.090.0953.3353.330.010.01
ClemsonACC0.090.0971.8871.880.040.04
Texas A&MSEC0.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
Michigan St.B100.090.0987.8887.880.070.07
CaliforniaP120.090.0925.8125.81-0.04-0.04
KentuckySEC0.090.0970.5970.590.040.04
StanfordP120.090.0954.5554.550.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.090.0937.5037.50-0.02-0.02
WisconsinB100.090.0945.4545.45-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.090.0930.0030.00-0.04-0.04
GeorgetownBE0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
MarquetteBE0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
Oregon St.P120.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.090.0912.5012.50-0.07-0.07
UMBCAE0.090.0967.7467.740.030.03
Wake ForestACC0.090.0935.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Northern IowaMVC0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Little RockSB0.090.0920.0020.00-0.05-0.05
FurmanSC0.070.0767.7467.740.030.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.070.076.676.67-0.06-0.06
Norfolk St.MEAC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.070.0777.4277.420.040.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.070.0724.2424.24-0.04-0.04
HowardMEAC0.070.0725.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.070.0780.6580.650.040.04
William & MaryCAA0.070.0758.6258.620.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.070.0732.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Oklahoma St.B120.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.070.0763.3363.330.020.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.070.0743.7543.75-0.01-0.01
RutgersB100.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
La SalleA100.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
MississippiSEC0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
Saint Joseph'sA100.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
San Jose St.MWC0.070.0710.3410.34-0.05-0.05
StetsonASun0.070.0728.5728.57-0.03-0.03
TennesseeSEC0.070.0775.7675.760.040.04
West VirginiaB120.070.0770.5970.590.030.03
Miami OHMAC0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
SyracuseACC0.070.0760.6160.610.010.01
CreightonBE0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
OhioMAC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.070.0763.3363.330.020.02
Cal PolyBW0.070.0724.1424.14-0.03-0.03
FairfieldMAAC0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.070.0746.4346.43-0.00-0.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.070.0732.0032.00-0.02-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.070.078.008.00-0.06-0.06
TCUB120.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
DetroitHorz0.070.0720.0020.00-0.04-0.04
Green BayHorz0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
AkronMAC0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
AlbanyAE0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
BryantNEC0.060.069.689.68-0.05-0.05
LouisvilleACC0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
Loyola MDPat0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
OaklandHorz0.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
SienaMAAC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Wright St.Horz0.060.0671.8871.880.030.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.060.0620.0020.00-0.04-0.04
The CitadelSC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
VMISC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
WoffordSC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.050.0571.4371.430.020.02
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0516.6716.67-0.03-0.03
MassachusettsA100.050.0539.3939.39-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
FordhamA100.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
ColgatePat0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0526.9226.92-0.02-0.02
DavidsonA100.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
DaytonA100.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
DuquesneA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
George MasonA100.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
NevadaMWC0.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
North FloridaASun0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
OklahomaB120.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
PennIvy0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Stony BrookAE0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
UtahP120.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
VCUA100.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Arizona St.P120.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
DelawareCAA0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.040.0446.6746.67-0.00-0.00
ButlerBE0.040.0460.6160.610.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.040.0453.3353.330.000.00
DePaulBE0.040.0435.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.040.0436.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.040.0465.6265.620.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.040.0434.4834.48-0.01-0.01
PacificWCC0.040.0441.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.040.0427.5927.59-0.02-0.02
NiagaraMAAC0.040.0459.3859.380.010.01
CanisiusMAAC0.040.0465.6265.620.010.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.040.0450.0050.000.000.00
IUPUIHorz0.040.0432.1432.14-0.02-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.040.0448.3948.39-0.00-0.00
CampbellBSth0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
High PointBSth0.020.0240.7440.74-0.00-0.00
MinnesotaB100.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
RadfordBSth0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Texas TechB120.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
VirginiaACC0.020.0293.9493.940.020.02
Georgia St.SB0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
IowaB100.020.0242.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Iowa St.B120.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
LamarSlnd0.020.0253.5753.570.000.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
ManhattanMAAC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.020.0260.7160.710.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
UTSACUSA0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
WinthropBSth0.020.0257.1457.140.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.020.0255.8855.880.000.00
BucknellPat0.020.0273.5373.530.010.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
DenverSum0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
DrakeMVC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
DukeACC0.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
ElonCAA0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.020.0288.2488.240.020.02
IndianaB100.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.020.0284.3884.380.020.02
MichiganB100.020.0279.4179.410.010.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
NavyPat0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
New HampshireAE0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.020.0213.3313.33-0.02-0.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
Penn St.B100.020.0261.7661.760.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
South DakotaSum0.020.0273.3373.330.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.020.0280.0080.000.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
UNLVMWC0.020.0260.6160.610.000.00
VermontAE0.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
WashingtonP120.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Washington St.P120.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.020.0222.2222.22-0.01-0.01
NJITASun0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
RiderMAAC0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
HawaiiBW0.020.0253.5753.570.000.00
North DakotaBSky0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Texas St.SB0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
TroySB0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Weber St.BSky0.020.0260.7160.710.000.00