Colorado

Conference:	P12
Expected RPI:	82.0
Current RPI:	82
Expected SOS:	33
Current SOS:	33
Current Record:	17-15
Expected Record:	17-15
Current Conf Record:	9-11
Expected Conf Record:	9-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	4-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	5-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	4-1
Current OOC Record:	8-4
Expected OOC Record:	8-4
Expected OOC RPI:	87
Expected OOC SOS:	102

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
17-15	82.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Colorado.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Northern Colorado (110.0)	BSky	H	66-51	W	100%
11-14	Denver (224.0)	Sum	H	89-62	W	100%
11-17	Quinnipiac (277.0)	MAAC	N	70-69	W	100%
11-18	Drake (166.0)	MVC	N	81-86	W	100%
11-19	Mercer (174.0)	SC	N	79-70	W	100%
11-26	Air Force (253.0)	MWC	H	81-69	W	100%
12-2	Colorado St. (234.0)	MWC	A	72-63	L	0%
12-6	New Mexico (118.0)	MWC	H	75-57	W	100%
12-9	Xavier (3.0)	BE	A	96-69	L	0%
12-12	San Diego (143.0)	WCC	H	59-69	L	0%
12-15	South Dakota St. (37.0)	Sum	H	112-103	W	100%
12-22	Iowa (157.0)	B10	N	80-73	L	0%
12-29	Oregon St. (137.0)	P12	A	76-57	L	0%
12-31	Oregon (72.0)	P12	A	77-62	L	0%
1-4	Arizona St. (66.0)	P12	H	90-81	W	100%
1-6	Arizona (13.0)	P12	H	80-77	W	100%
1-10	USC (34.0)	P12	A	70-58	L	0%
1-13	UCLA (36.0)	P12	A	59-68	W	100%
1-18	Washington St. (179.0)	P12	H	82-73	W	100%
1-20	Washington (71.0)	P12	H	62-72	L	0%
1-25	Arizona (13.0)	P12	A	80-71	L	0%
1-27	Arizona St. (66.0)	P12	A	80-66	L	0%
2-2	Utah (59.0)	P12	H	67-55	W	100%
2-7	California (216.0)	P12	H	68-64	W	100%
2-11	Stanford (86.0)	P12	H	64-56	W	100%
2-15	Washington St. (179.0)	P12	A	73-69	L	0%
2-17	Washington (71.0)	P12	A	82-59	L	0%
2-21	USC (34.0)	P12	H	64-75	L	0%
2-25	UCLA (36.0)	P12	H	80-76	W	100%
3-3	Utah (59.0)	P12	A	64-54	L	0%
3-7	Arizona St. (66.0)	P12	N	97-85	W	100%
3-8	Arizona (13.0)	P12	N	83-67	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Colorado's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Colorado's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Colorado.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Colorado	P12	26.33	26.33	50.81	50.81	0.42	0.42
Arizona	P12	5.45	5.45	80.65	80.65	3.34	3.34
Arizona St.	P12	5.34	5.34	67.86	67.86	1.91	1.91
Utah	P12	3.92	3.92	64.29	64.29	1.12	1.12
USC	P12	3.88	3.88	65.62	65.62	1.21	1.21
UCLA	P12	3.85	3.85	70.00	70.00	1.54	1.54
Washington	P12	3.79	3.79	60.00	60.00	0.76	0.76
Washington St.	P12	3.78	3.78	37.93	37.93	-0.91	-0.91
Oregon	P12	2.56	2.56	63.64	63.64	0.70	0.70
Stanford	P12	2.49	2.49	56.25	56.25	0.31	0.31
Oregon St.	P12	2.48	2.48	48.39	48.39	-0.08	-0.08
California	P12	2.41	2.41	26.67	26.67	-1.12	-1.12
New Mexico	MWC	1.74	1.74	56.25	56.25	0.22	0.22
Denver	Sum	1.69	1.69	48.15	48.15	-0.06	-0.06
Air Force	MWC	1.69	1.69	35.71	35.71	-0.48	-0.48
Colorado St.	MWC	1.69	1.69	30.00	30.00	-0.67	-0.67
South Dakota St.	Sum	1.67	1.67	82.76	82.76	1.09	1.09
Xavier	BE	1.64	1.64	84.38	84.38	1.13	1.13
Iowa	B10	1.61	1.61	40.62	40.62	-0.30	-0.30
Drake	MVC	1.61	1.61	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Northern Colorado	BSky	1.59	1.59	63.33	63.33	0.42	0.42
Mercer	SC	1.56	1.56	55.17	55.17	0.16	0.16
Quinnipiac	MAAC	1.56	1.56	37.50	37.50	-0.39	-0.39
San Diego	WCC	1.56	1.56	55.17	55.17	0.16	0.16
San Diego St.	MWC	0.33	0.33	67.74	67.74	0.12	0.12
UNLV	MWC	0.30	0.30	60.61	60.61	0.06	0.06
Wyoming	MWC	0.28	0.28	59.38	59.38	0.05	0.05
South Dakota	Sum	0.26	0.26	73.33	73.33	0.12	0.12
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.25	0.25	41.38	41.38	-0.04	-0.04
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.23	0.23	24.14	24.14	-0.12	-0.12
Utah St.	MWC	0.23	0.23	48.48	48.48	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.22	0.22	13.33	13.33	-0.16	-0.16
San Jose St.	MWC	0.21	0.21	10.34	10.34	-0.16	-0.16
UC Irvine	BW	0.18	0.18	48.48	48.48	-0.01	-0.01
Pacific	WCC	0.18	0.18	41.94	41.94	-0.03	-0.03
Idaho St.	BSky	0.18	0.18	42.86	42.86	-0.03	-0.03
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.17	0.17	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Boise St.	MWC	0.17	0.17	73.33	73.33	0.08	0.08
Fresno St.	MWC	0.17	0.17	63.33	63.33	0.05	0.05
Kansas	B12	0.17	0.17	79.41	79.41	0.10	0.10
St. John's	BE	0.17	0.17	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Long Beach St.	BW	0.17	0.17	41.94	41.94	-0.03	-0.03
San Francisco	WCC	0.15	0.15	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
UC Davis	BW	0.15	0.15	66.67	66.67	0.05	0.05
Montana	BSky	0.15	0.15	77.42	77.42	0.08	0.08
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.14	0.14	83.33	83.33	0.10	0.10
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.14	0.14	28.57	28.57	-0.06	-0.06
Western Illinois	Sum	0.13	0.13	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
BYU	WCC	0.13	0.13	70.59	70.59	0.05	0.05
Saint Mary's	WCC	0.13	0.13	84.85	84.85	0.09	0.09
Kansas St.	B12	0.13	0.13	66.67	66.67	0.04	0.04
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.13	0.13	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
Seattle	WAC	0.12	0.12	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.12	0.12	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Michigan	B10	0.12	0.12	79.41	79.41	0.07	0.07
Providence	BE	0.12	0.12	61.76	61.76	0.03	0.03
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	0.12	0.12	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
SMU	Amer	0.11	0.11	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Texas A&M	SEC	0.11	0.11	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Fort Wayne	Sum	0.11	0.11	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Wofford	SC	0.10	0.10	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Missouri St.	MVC	0.10	0.10	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Nevada	MWC	0.10	0.10	79.41	79.41	0.06	0.06
Gonzaga	WCC	0.10	0.10	88.24	88.24	0.08	0.08
Idaho	BSky	0.10	0.10	68.97	68.97	0.04	0.04
Butler	BE	0.10	0.10	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.10	0.10	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.10	0.10	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Santa Clara	WCC	0.10	0.10	34.48	34.48	-0.03	-0.03
Canisius	MAAC	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Portland St.	BSky	0.10	0.10	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.10	0.10	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Creighton	BE	0.10	0.10	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
Wisconsin	B10	0.10	0.10	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.09	0.09	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Purdue	B10	0.09	0.09	82.35	82.35	0.06	0.06
Connecticut	Amer	0.09	0.09	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Montana St.	BSky	0.08	0.08	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Mississippi	SEC	0.08	0.08	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Indiana St.	MVC	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.08	0.08	8.00	8.00	-0.06	-0.06
Pepperdine	WCC	0.08	0.08	16.13	16.13	-0.05	-0.05
North Dakota	BSky	0.08	0.08	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
East Tennessee St.	SC	0.08	0.08	71.88	71.88	0.03	0.03
Bradley	MVC	0.08	0.08	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Longwood	BSth	0.08	0.08	13.33	13.33	-0.06	-0.06
Weber St.	BSky	0.08	0.08	60.71	60.71	0.02	0.02
Drexel	CAA	0.07	0.07	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.07	0.07	28.57	28.57	-0.03	-0.03
Evansville	MVC	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.07	0.07	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
UTEP	CUSA	0.07	0.07	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.07	0.07	44.12	44.12	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Utah	BSky	0.07	0.07	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.07	0.07	25.81	25.81	-0.04	-0.04
Minnesota	B10	0.07	0.07	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Cincinnati	Amer	0.07	0.07	88.24	88.24	0.06	0.06
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.07	0.07	70.00	70.00	0.03	0.03
Marist	MAAC	0.07	0.07	19.35	19.35	-0.04	-0.04
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.07	0.07	62.07	62.07	0.02	0.02
Fairfield	MAAC	0.07	0.07	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Ohio St.	B10	0.07	0.07	75.00	75.00	0.04	0.04
Rider	MAAC	0.07	0.07	70.97	70.97	0.03	0.03
Siena	MAAC	0.07	0.07	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
DePaul	BE	0.07	0.07	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Oklahoma	B12	0.07	0.07	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
UMBC	AE	0.07	0.07	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Texas St.	SB	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
UC Riverside	BW	0.05	0.05	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
Chattanooga	SC	0.05	0.05	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Furman	SC	0.05	0.05	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Hawaii	BW	0.05	0.05	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	12.50	12.50	-0.04	-0.04
Missouri	SEC	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Portland	WCC	0.05	0.05	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
Samford	SC	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.02	-0.02
The Citadel	SC	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
UNC Greensboro	SC	0.05	0.05	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
VMI	SC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Western Carolina	SC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Wichita St.	Amer	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Illinois St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
IUPUI	Horz	0.05	0.05	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
Loyola Chicago	MVC	0.05	0.05	84.38	84.38	0.03	0.03
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.05	0.05	16.67	16.67	-0.03	-0.03
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Valparaiso	MVC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Liberty	BSth	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Cal Poly	BW	0.05	0.05	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
Chicago St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	3.33	3.33	-0.05	-0.05
Wake Forest	ACC	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Belmont	OVC	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Detroit	Horz	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.02	-0.02
Kent St.	MAC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Georgetown	BE	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Illinois	B10	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Indiana	B10	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Manhattan	MAAC	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Marquette	BE	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Maryland	B10	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Niagara	MAAC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.05	0.05	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Saint Peter's	MAAC	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Seton Hall	BE	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Villanova	BE	0.05	0.05	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
Akron	MAC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Lehigh	Pat	0.05	0.05	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.05	0.05	76.67	76.67	0.02	0.02
Princeton	Ivy	0.05	0.05	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Navy	Pat	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
USC Upstate	ASun	0.03	0.03	10.71	10.71	-0.02	-0.02
Abilene Christian	Slnd	0.03	0.03	44.44	44.44	-0.00	-0.00
Army	Pat	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Buffalo	MAC	0.03	0.03	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.03	0.03	24.24	24.24	-0.01	-0.01
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
La Salle	A10	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
Little Rock	SB	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
Memphis	Amer	0.03	0.03	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
North Texas	CUSA	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Robert Morris	NEC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Tennessee	SEC	0.03	0.03	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
UCF	Amer	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
UMKC	WAC	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.03	0.03	14.29	14.29	-0.02	-0.02
Florida St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.03	0.03	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
Southern Miss	CUSA	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Tulane	Amer	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
VCU	A10	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Winthrop	BSth	0.03	0.03	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.02	0.02	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.02	0.02	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Saint Louis	A10	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Baylor	B12	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Brown	Ivy	0.02	0.02	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Columbia	Ivy	0.02	0.02	26.92	26.92	-0.01	-0.01
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.02	0.02	23.08	23.08	-0.01	-0.01
Florida	SEC	0.02	0.02	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
George Washington	A10	0.02	0.02	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.02	0.02	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Hampton	MEAC	0.02	0.02	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Hartford	AE	0.02	0.02	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Iona	MAAC	0.02	0.02	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Lafayette	Pat	0.02	0.02	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.02	0.02	80.65	80.65	0.01	0.01
Maine	AE	0.02	0.02	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Marshall	CUSA	0.02	0.02	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.02	0.02	39.39	39.39	-0.01	-0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.02	0.02	87.88	87.88	0.02	0.02
Monmouth	MAAC	0.02	0.02	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Morehead St.	OVC	0.02	0.02	22.22	22.22	-0.01	-0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.02	0.02	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.02	0.02	71.43	71.43	0.01	0.01
Northeastern	CAA	0.02	0.02	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.02	0.02	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.02	0.02	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Rice	CUSA	0.02	0.02	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
Rutgers	B10	0.02	0.02	42.42	42.42	-0.00	-0.00
Southern	SWAC	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
TCU	B12	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
UAB	CUSA	0.02	0.02	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Vermont	AE	0.02	0.02	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.02	0.02	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	15.62	15.62	-0.02	-0.02