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Through games of Mar 11, 2018.


Davidson

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:47.0
Current RPI:47
Expected SOS:84
Current SOS:84
Current Record:21-11
Expected Record:21-11
Current Conf Record:16-5
Expected Conf Record:16-5
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:4-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-2
Current OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC RPI:154
Expected OOC SOS:104



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-1147.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Davidson.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Charleston Southern (261.0)BSthH110-62W100%0.0
11-14UNC Wilmington (245.0)CAAH108-81W100%0.0
11-21Nevada (17.0)MWCA81-68L0%0.0
11-25Appalachian St. (250.0)SBA78-62L0%0.0
11-28Charlotte (323.0)CUSAA70-85W100%0.0
12-1North Carolina (4.0)ACCH75-85L0%0.0
12-5VMI (313.0)SCH74-51W100%0.0
12-16Virginia (1.0)ACCA80-60L0%0.0
12-22New Mexico St. (35.0)WACN69-68L0%0.0
12-23Hawaii (213.0)BWA79-71L0%0.0
12-25Akron (227.0)MACN91-78W100%0.0
12-30Richmond (176.0)A10A69-58L0%0.0
1-3Saint Louis (148.0)A10H54-51W100%0.0
1-7George Mason (201.0)A10A59-86W100%0.0
1-10George Washington (195.0)A10H72-45W100%0.0
1-14Fordham (290.0)A10A45-75W100%0.0
1-19St. Bonaventure (24.0)A10H83-73W100%0.0
1-23Dayton (146.0)A10A65-64L0%0.0
1-28Richmond (176.0)A10H63-66L0%0.0
1-31La Salle (202.0)A10H84-65W100%0.0
2-3George Washington (195.0)A10A58-87W100%0.0
2-6Saint Joseph's (147.0)A10H91-62W100%0.0
2-9Rhode Island (19.0)A10A72-59L0%0.0
2-14VCU (135.0)A10A63-74W100%0.0
2-17Massachusetts (240.0)A10H83-78W100%0.0
2-21Fordham (290.0)A10H76-52W100%0.0
2-24Duquesne (259.0)A10A60-71W100%0.0
2-27St. Bonaventure (24.0)A10A117-113L0%0.0
3-2Rhode Island (19.0)A10H63-61W100%0.0
3-9Saint Louis (148.0)A10N78-60W100%0.0
3-10St. Bonaventure (24.0)A10N70-82W100%0.0
3-11Rhode Island (19.0)A10N57-58W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Davidson's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Davidson's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Davidson.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
DavidsonA1026.2826.2868.8468.849.909.90
Rhode IslandA105.375.3782.7682.763.523.52
St. BonaventureA105.355.3582.7682.763.503.50
Saint LouisA103.833.8353.3353.330.260.26
RichmondA103.833.8333.3333.33-1.28-1.28
George WashingtonA103.813.8148.3948.39-0.12-0.12
FordhamA103.733.7331.0331.03-1.41-1.41
VCUA102.422.4256.2556.250.300.30
DuquesneA102.372.3751.6151.610.080.08
Saint Joseph'sA102.342.3451.6151.610.080.08
La SalleA102.292.2941.9441.94-0.37-0.37
DaytonA102.292.2943.3343.33-0.31-0.31
MassachusettsA102.272.2740.6240.62-0.43-0.43
George MasonA102.272.2750.0050.000.000.00
VirginiaACC1.701.7093.7593.751.491.49
NevadaMWC1.661.6678.7978.790.960.96
VMISC1.641.6425.9325.93-0.79-0.79
AkronMAC1.611.6143.3343.33-0.22-0.22
Appalachian St.SB1.611.6140.0040.00-0.32-0.32
North CarolinaACC1.611.6170.5970.590.660.66
Charleston SouthernBSth1.591.5944.4444.44-0.18-0.18
HawaiiBW1.591.5951.8551.850.060.06
CharlotteCUSA1.561.5618.5218.52-0.98-0.98
New Mexico St.WAC1.561.5682.7682.761.021.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA1.561.5631.0331.03-0.59-0.59
Miami FLACC0.190.1970.9770.970.080.08
James MadisonCAA0.180.1829.0329.03-0.07-0.07
Florida St.ACC0.170.1764.5264.520.050.05
SyracuseACC0.170.1760.6160.610.040.04
UNC AshevilleBSth0.160.1661.2961.290.040.04
Old DominionCUSA0.150.1578.1278.120.090.09
College of CharlestonCAA0.150.1577.4277.420.080.08
NortheasternCAA0.150.1568.7568.750.060.06
HarvardIvy0.150.1556.6756.670.020.02
ProvidenceBE0.150.1561.7661.760.030.03
BucknellPat0.140.1473.5373.530.070.07
PresbyterianBSth0.140.1427.5927.59-0.06-0.06
UC IrvineBW0.130.1348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
CampbellBSth0.130.1346.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.130.1336.6736.67-0.03-0.03
SeattleWAC0.130.1356.6756.670.020.02
PrincetonIvy0.120.1242.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
BuffaloMAC0.120.1275.7675.760.060.06
Wake ForestACC0.120.1235.4835.48-0.04-0.04
VermontAE0.120.1278.7978.790.070.07
Holy CrossPat0.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Boston CollegeACC0.120.1255.8855.880.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
LouisvilleACC0.120.1260.6160.610.020.02
ChattanoogaSC0.110.1125.8125.81-0.05-0.05
RadfordBSth0.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.110.1171.8871.880.050.05
UNC GreensboroSC0.110.1177.4277.420.060.06
UTEPCUSA0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
HofstraCAA0.100.1060.0060.000.020.02
HowardMEAC0.100.1025.8125.81-0.05-0.05
DelawareCAA0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
MaineAE0.100.1013.3313.33-0.07-0.07
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.100.1016.6716.67-0.07-0.07
NiagaraMAAC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
Seton HallBE0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
HamptonMEAC0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
TCUB120.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
TempleAmer0.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
ClemsonACC0.090.0971.8871.880.040.04
DukeACC0.090.0978.7978.790.050.05
High PointBSth0.080.0840.7440.74-0.02-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.080.0813.3313.33-0.06-0.06
The CitadelSC0.080.0827.5927.59-0.04-0.04
FurmanSC0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
MarshallCUSA0.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
MercerSC0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.080.0865.5265.520.020.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.080.0814.2914.29-0.06-0.06
WinthropBSth0.080.0857.1457.140.010.01
UC DavisBW0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
TroySB0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.080.083.333.33-0.07-0.07
Grand CanyonWAC0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
WoffordSC0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
UABCUSA0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
DrexelCAA0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
TowsonCAA0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.080.0858.6258.620.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
Little RockSB0.080.0820.0020.00-0.05-0.05
OhioMAC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
New MexicoMWC0.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
ToledoMAC0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
Georgia St.SB0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
West VirginiaB120.070.0770.5970.590.030.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.070.0780.6580.650.050.05
PennIvy0.070.0774.1974.190.040.04
AlabamaSEC0.070.0755.8855.880.010.01
BrownIvy0.070.0738.4638.46-0.02-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
IonaMAAC0.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
MarylandB100.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
SienaMAAC0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
YaleIvy0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
TulaneAmer0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.070.0732.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Penn St.B100.070.0761.7661.760.020.02
PittsburghACC0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Georgia TechACC0.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.070.0763.3363.330.020.02
San Diego St.MWC0.070.0767.7467.740.020.02
UNLVMWC0.070.0760.6160.610.010.01
Notre DameACC0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
Cal PolyBW0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Cal St. FullertonBW0.060.0662.0762.070.010.01
FIUCUSA0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
UC RiversideBW0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.060.0670.0070.000.020.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.060.0669.7069.700.020.02
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
ElonCAA0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0584.8584.850.040.04
USCP120.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Coastal CarolinaSB0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0524.2424.24-0.03-0.03
Kent St.MAC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
RutgersB100.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Texas St.SB0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0512.5012.50-0.04-0.04
AuburnSEC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
ButlerBE0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
DetroitHorz0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
GeorgetownBE0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
HoustonAmer0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.050.0582.7682.760.030.03
Oregon St.P120.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
VillanovaBE0.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
Ohio St.B100.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Kansas St.B120.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
New HampshireAE0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
RiderMAAC0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
XavierBE0.050.0584.8584.850.030.03
MichiganB100.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
Boise St.MWC0.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0510.3410.34-0.04-0.04
Utah St.MWC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
WyomingMWC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
AmericanPat0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
North DakotaBSky0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
RiceCUSA0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
UtahP120.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
UTSACUSA0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
IllinoisB100.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
LSUSEC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
ValparaisoMVC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0332.3532.35-0.01-0.01
Fort WayneSum0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Iowa St.B120.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
WagnerNEC0.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
CornellIvy0.020.0240.7440.74-0.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.020.026.676.67-0.02-0.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
LamarSlnd0.020.0253.5753.570.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
NorthwesternB100.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.020.0216.6716.67-0.02-0.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Washington St.P120.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
BinghamtonAE0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
BYUWCC0.020.0270.5970.590.010.01
CaliforniaP120.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
LafayettePat0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
LehighPat0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
MarquetteBE0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
MinnesotaB100.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
MonmouthMAAC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
North FloridaASun0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.020.0236.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
TexasB120.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
UMass LowellAE0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Air ForceMWC0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
IdahoBSky0.020.0268.9768.970.010.01
PacificWCC0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.020.0267.6567.650.010.01
Michigan St.B100.020.0287.8887.880.020.02
Northern IowaMVC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
PortlandWCC0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.020.0275.7675.760.010.01