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Through games of Mar 11, 2018.


Dayton

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:146.0
Current RPI:146
Expected SOS:66
Current SOS:66
Current Record:14-17
Expected Record:14-17
Current Conf Record:8-11
Expected Conf Record:8-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-5
Current OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC RPI:88
Expected OOC SOS:4



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-17146.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Dayton.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Ball St. (126.0)MACH78-77W100%0.0
11-16Hofstra (121.0)CAAN72-69L0%0.0
11-17Ohio (204.0)MACN79-65W100%0.0
11-19Old Dominion (78.0)CUSAN67-75L0%0.0
11-25Akron (227.0)MACH73-60W100%0.0
11-29Auburn (15.0)SECH60-73L0%0.0
12-3Mississippi St. (73.0)SECA61-59L0%0.0
12-6Tennessee Tech (158.0)OVCH79-66W100%0.0
12-9Penn (112.0)IvyH70-78L0%0.0
12-16Georgia St. (120.0)SBH88-83W100%0.0
12-19Saint Mary's (40.0)WCCA69-54L0%0.0
12-23Wagner (109.0)NECH79-67W100%0.0
12-30Duquesne (259.0)A10A70-62L0%0.0
1-3St. Bonaventure (24.0)A10H82-72W100%0.0
1-6Massachusetts (240.0)A10H60-62L0%0.0
1-9Richmond (176.0)A10A81-87W100%0.0
1-12VCU (135.0)A10H106-79W100%0.0
1-17Saint Joseph's (147.0)A10A81-65L0%0.0
1-20Rhode Island (19.0)A10H74-88L0%0.0
1-23Davidson (47.0)A10H65-64W100%0.0
1-27Saint Louis (148.0)A10A75-65L0%0.0
2-3Massachusetts (240.0)A10A86-82L0%0.0
2-7Duquesne (259.0)A10H88-73W100%0.0
2-10VCU (135.0)A10A88-84L0%0.0
2-14George Mason (201.0)A10A85-67L0%0.0
2-17Fordham (290.0)A10H80-70W100%0.0
2-20Saint Louis (148.0)A10H53-50W100%0.0
2-23Rhode Island (19.0)A10A81-56L0%0.0
2-28La Salle (202.0)A10A71-53L0%0.0
3-3George Washington (195.0)A10H88-78W100%0.0
3-8VCU (135.0)A10N77-72L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Dayton's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Dayton's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Dayton.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
DaytonA1026.1326.1339.6739.67-5.40-5.40
VCUA105.425.4253.3353.330.360.36
Rhode IslandA103.903.9076.6776.672.082.08
MassachusettsA103.853.8535.4835.48-1.12-1.12
Saint LouisA103.833.8350.0050.000.000.00
DuquesneA103.803.8050.0050.000.000.00
DavidsonA102.372.3767.7467.740.840.84
RichmondA102.362.3638.7138.71-0.53-0.53
George MasonA102.362.3646.8846.88-0.15-0.15
La SalleA102.342.3438.7138.71-0.53-0.53
George WashingtonA102.342.3446.8846.88-0.15-0.15
St. BonaventureA102.312.3180.6580.651.421.42
Saint Joseph'sA102.312.3148.3948.39-0.07-0.07
FordhamA102.282.2830.0030.00-0.91-0.91
AkronMAC1.741.7443.3343.33-0.23-0.23
Old DominionCUSA1.711.7177.4277.420.940.94
Ball St.MAC1.691.6960.0060.000.340.34
OhioMAC1.691.6944.8344.83-0.17-0.17
AuburnSEC1.691.6977.4277.420.930.93
PennIvy1.661.6673.3373.330.780.78
Georgia St.SB1.661.6670.9770.970.700.70
HofstraCAA1.641.6458.6258.620.280.28
Mississippi St.SEC1.641.6464.5264.520.480.48
Saint Mary'sWCC1.611.6184.3884.381.111.11
Tennessee TechOVC1.611.6156.6756.670.220.22
WagnerNEC1.611.6172.4172.410.720.72
HarvardIvy0.230.2356.6756.670.030.03
ToledoMAC0.210.2166.6766.670.070.07
Miami OHMAC0.180.1845.1645.16-0.02-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.180.1848.4848.48-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.180.1850.0050.000.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.180.1855.8855.880.020.02
BucknellPat0.170.1773.5373.530.080.08
Central MichiganMAC0.160.1653.3353.330.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.160.1646.6746.67-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.160.1675.7675.760.080.08
TempleAmer0.150.1553.1253.120.010.01
Seton HallBE0.150.1565.6265.620.050.05
Appalachian St.SB0.150.1541.9441.94-0.02-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.150.1561.7661.760.040.04
South CarolinaSEC0.150.1550.0050.000.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.150.1554.5554.550.010.01
VirginiaACC0.150.1593.9493.940.130.13
VMISC0.150.1525.0025.00-0.07-0.07
Robert MorrisNEC0.130.1348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.130.1358.6258.620.020.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.130.1336.6736.67-0.03-0.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.130.1337.9337.93-0.03-0.03
TowsonCAA0.130.1353.3353.330.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.130.1329.0329.03-0.05-0.05
Jacksonville St.OVC0.130.1362.5062.500.030.03
PrincetonIvy0.130.1342.8642.86-0.02-0.02
CornellIvy0.130.1340.7440.74-0.02-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.130.1382.7682.760.080.08
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.130.1316.6716.67-0.08-0.08
MississippiSEC0.130.1337.5037.50-0.03-0.03
North FloridaASun0.120.1236.6736.67-0.03-0.03
Holy CrossPat0.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
BYUWCC0.120.1270.5970.590.050.05
LIU BrooklynNEC0.110.1151.5251.520.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.110.1130.0030.00-0.04-0.04
College of CharlestonCAA0.100.1077.4277.420.060.06
William & MaryCAA0.100.1058.6258.620.020.02
MarshallCUSA0.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
Indiana St.MVC0.100.1037.9337.93-0.02-0.02
VillanovaBE0.100.1088.2488.240.080.08
YaleIvy0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
MissouriSEC0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
BrownIvy0.100.1038.4638.46-0.02-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
MaineAE0.100.1013.3313.33-0.07-0.07
Georgia SouthernSB0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
San FranciscoWCC0.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
WinthropBSth0.100.1057.1457.140.010.01
CaliforniaP120.100.1025.8125.81-0.05-0.05
Central ConnecticutNEC0.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
DelawareCAA0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
DrexelCAA0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
RiderMAAC0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
St. Francis PANEC0.080.0857.1457.140.010.01
FairfieldMAAC0.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
IonaMAAC0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.080.0824.2424.24-0.04-0.04
ChattanoogaSC0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
Tennessee MartinOVC0.080.0827.5927.59-0.03-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.080.086.676.67-0.07-0.07
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.080.0812.5012.50-0.06-0.06
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.080.0867.6567.650.030.03
CharlotteCUSA0.080.0817.8617.86-0.05-0.05
Little RockSB0.080.0820.0020.00-0.05-0.05
LSUSEC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
NevadaMWC0.080.0879.4179.410.040.04
South AlabamaSB0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
TroySB0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
VanderbiltSEC0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
SeattleWAC0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
NiagaraMAAC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
MarquetteBE0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
MichiganB100.070.0779.4179.410.040.04
PepperdineWCC0.070.0716.1316.13-0.05-0.05
TexasB120.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
BryantNEC0.050.059.689.68-0.04-0.04
ClemsonACC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
ElonCAA0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Stony BrookAE0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.059.689.68-0.04-0.04
MarylandB100.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
SienaMAAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
BelmontOVC0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0526.9226.92-0.02-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.050.0523.0823.08-0.03-0.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
TCUB120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
TulaneAmer0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Florida St.ACC0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
HowardMEAC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
LafayettePat0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
ButlerBE0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
CampbellBSth0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
DetroitHorz0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
FIUCUSA0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
HoustonAmer0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
KentuckySEC0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
LamarSlnd0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Oregon St.P120.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
PittsburghACC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
RiceCUSA0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Texas St.SB0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
VermontAE0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Virginia TechACC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Miami FLACC0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
Sacramento St.BSky0.050.0516.6716.67-0.03-0.03
Washington St.P120.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
MinnesotaB100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
PacificWCC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
PortlandWCC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
AmericanPat0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
ArmyPat0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0315.6215.62-0.02-0.02
HartfordAE0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
NJITASun0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0332.3532.35-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Fort WayneSum0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
FurmanSC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
IndianaB100.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
IUPUIHorz0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
LipscombASun0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
NavyPat0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Notre DameACC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
OklahomaB120.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
OregonP120.030.0364.7164.710.010.01
RutgersB100.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
UMKCWAC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
USCP120.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
ValparaisoMVC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
West VirginiaB120.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Coastal CarolinaSB0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Green BayHorz0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
LibertyBSth0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
MercerSC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
MontanaBSky0.030.0377.4277.420.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.030.0371.4371.430.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
SyracuseACC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.020.0262.0762.070.010.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.020.0214.2914.29-0.02-0.02
Fresno St.MWC0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
Kansas St.B120.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
New HampshireAE0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
San Jose St.MWC0.020.0210.3410.34-0.02-0.02
UC IrvineBW0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
XavierBE0.020.0284.8584.850.020.02