DePaul

Conference:	BE
Expected RPI:	186.0
Current RPI:	186
Expected SOS:	68
Current SOS:	68
Current Record:	11-20
Expected Record:	11-20
Current Conf Record:	4-15
Expected Conf Record:	4-15
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	6-0
Current OOC Record:	7-5
Expected OOC Record:	7-5
Expected OOC RPI:	252
Expected OOC SOS:	319

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
11-20	186.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for DePaul.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-11	Notre Dame (70.0)	ACC	H	58-72	L	0%
11-13	Delaware St. (351.0)	MEAC	H	81-57	W	100%
11-17	Illinois (181.0)	B10	A	82-73	L	0%
11-23	Michigan St. (14.0)	B10	N	51-73	L	0%
11-24	Oregon (72.0)	P12	N	89-79	L	0%
11-26	Portland (285.0)	WCC	N	69-82	W	100%
12-2	Youngstown St. (329.0)	Horz	H	89-73	W	100%
12-6	Central Connecticut (263.0)	NEC	H	85-57	W	100%
12-9	Illinois Chicago (236.0)	Horz	A	55-65	W	100%
12-11	Alabama A&M (350.0)	SWAC	H	83-59	W	100%
12-16	Northwestern (168.0)	B10	H	60-62	L	0%
12-21	Miami OH (159.0)	MAC	H	83-66	W	100%
12-27	Villanova (2.0)	BE	H	85-103	L	0%
12-30	Xavier (3.0)	BE	A	77-72	L	0%
1-2	Georgetown (169.0)	BE	H	81-90	L	0%
1-6	St. John's (92.0)	BE	A	74-91	W	100%
1-12	Providence (32.0)	BE	H	64-71	L	0%
1-15	Marquette (58.0)	BE	A	70-52	L	0%
1-20	Butler (41.0)	BE	H	67-79	L	0%
1-24	Georgetown (169.0)	BE	A	73-74	W	100%
1-28	Seton Hall (31.0)	BE	H	70-86	L	0%
2-3	Butler (41.0)	BE	A	80-57	L	0%
2-7	Creighton (44.0)	BE	H	75-76	L	0%
2-10	Providence (32.0)	BE	A	63-80	W	100%
2-14	St. John's (92.0)	BE	H	76-77	L	0%
2-18	Seton Hall (31.0)	BE	A	82-77	L	0%
2-21	Villanova (2.0)	BE	A	93-62	L	0%
2-24	Marquette (58.0)	BE	H	70-62	W	100%
2-27	Creighton (44.0)	BE	A	82-57	L	0%
3-3	Xavier (3.0)	BE	H	62-65	L	0%
3-7	Marquette (58.0)	BE	N	72-69	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

DePaul's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

DePaul's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against DePaul.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
DePaul	BE	26.34	26.34	32.48	32.48	-9.23	-9.23
Marquette	BE	5.68	5.68	58.62	58.62	0.98	0.98
Villanova	BE	4.25	4.25	87.50	87.50	3.19	3.19
Providence	BE	4.23	4.23	62.50	62.50	1.06	1.06
St. John's	BE	4.20	4.20	46.67	46.67	-0.28	-0.28
Butler	BE	4.20	4.20	58.06	58.06	0.68	0.68
Xavier	BE	4.18	4.18	83.87	83.87	2.83	2.83
Creighton	BE	4.14	4.14	62.07	62.07	1.00	1.00
Georgetown	BE	4.14	4.14	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Seton Hall	BE	4.12	4.12	63.33	63.33	1.10	1.10
Youngstown St.	Horz	1.72	1.72	20.69	20.69	-1.01	-1.01
Michigan St.	B10	1.72	1.72	87.50	87.50	1.29	1.29
Northwestern	B10	1.72	1.72	43.33	43.33	-0.23	-0.23
Illinois Chicago	Horz	1.69	1.69	51.72	51.72	0.06	0.06
Illinois	B10	1.69	1.69	40.00	40.00	-0.34	-0.34
Alabama A&M	SWAC	1.67	1.67	10.00	10.00	-1.33	-1.33
Central Connecticut	NEC	1.66	1.66	45.16	45.16	-0.16	-0.16
Delaware St.	MEAC	1.64	1.64	6.90	6.90	-1.41	-1.41
Notre Dame	ACC	1.64	1.64	56.25	56.25	0.20	0.20
Miami OH	MAC	1.61	1.61	46.67	46.67	-0.11	-0.11
Oregon	P12	1.61	1.61	63.64	63.64	0.44	0.44
Portland	WCC	1.61	1.61	25.00	25.00	-0.81	-0.81
Wisconsin	B10	0.30	0.30	45.45	45.45	-0.03	-0.03
Nebraska	B10	0.23	0.23	68.75	68.75	0.09	0.09
Indiana	B10	0.23	0.23	51.61	51.61	0.01	0.01
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.20	0.20	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Rutgers	B10	0.20	0.20	42.42	42.42	-0.03	-0.03
Purdue	B10	0.20	0.20	82.35	82.35	0.13	0.13
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.18	0.18	32.35	32.35	-0.06	-0.06
Minnesota	B10	0.18	0.18	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Maryland	B10	0.18	0.18	58.06	58.06	0.03	0.03
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.17	0.17	30.00	30.00	-0.07	-0.07
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.16	0.16	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Gonzaga	WCC	0.16	0.16	88.24	88.24	0.12	0.12
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.15	0.15	36.67	36.67	-0.04	-0.04
Michigan	B10	0.15	0.15	79.41	79.41	0.09	0.09
Ohio St.	B10	0.15	0.15	75.00	75.00	0.08	0.08
Arizona St.	P12	0.15	0.15	64.52	64.52	0.04	0.04
Milwaukee	Horz	0.13	0.13	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Wright St.	Horz	0.13	0.13	71.88	71.88	0.06	0.06
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.13	0.13	16.67	16.67	-0.09	-0.09
Oakland	Horz	0.13	0.13	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.13	0.13	15.62	15.62	-0.09	-0.09
Penn St.	B10	0.13	0.13	61.76	61.76	0.03	0.03
Kent St.	MAC	0.13	0.13	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Chicago St.	WAC	0.13	0.13	3.33	3.33	-0.12	-0.12
VCU	A10	0.13	0.13	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Wagner	NEC	0.13	0.13	70.00	70.00	0.05	0.05
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.12	0.12	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Duke	ACC	0.12	0.12	78.79	78.79	0.07	0.07
Boston College	ACC	0.12	0.12	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Detroit	Horz	0.11	0.11	20.00	20.00	-0.06	-0.06
Green Bay	Horz	0.11	0.11	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
IUPUI	Horz	0.11	0.11	32.14	32.14	-0.04	-0.04
Northern Kentucky	Horz	0.11	0.11	68.97	68.97	0.04	0.04
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.11	0.11	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.10	0.10	25.00	25.00	-0.05	-0.05
Ohio	MAC	0.10	0.10	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Iowa	B10	0.10	0.10	42.42	42.42	-0.02	-0.02
Missouri	SEC	0.10	0.10	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
North Carolina	ACC	0.10	0.10	71.43	71.43	0.04	0.04
Baylor	B12	0.10	0.10	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.10	0.10	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Portland St.	BSky	0.10	0.10	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
LSU	SEC	0.10	0.10	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Wichita St.	Amer	0.10	0.10	78.12	78.12	0.06	0.06
UCLA	P12	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Brown	Ivy	0.10	0.10	38.46	38.46	-0.02	-0.02
Oregon St.	P12	0.10	0.10	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Rhode Island	A10	0.10	0.10	78.12	78.12	0.06	0.06
Morehead St.	OVC	0.10	0.10	22.22	22.22	-0.05	-0.05
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.10	0.10	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Rider	MAAC	0.10	0.10	70.97	70.97	0.04	0.04
Saint Louis	A10	0.10	0.10	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Utah	P12	0.10	0.10	63.33	63.33	0.03	0.03
Connecticut	Amer	0.10	0.10	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Washington	P12	0.09	0.09	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.08	0.08	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Howard	MEAC	0.08	0.08	25.81	25.81	-0.04	-0.04
Fort Wayne	Sum	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Hartford	AE	0.08	0.08	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Maine	AE	0.08	0.08	13.33	13.33	-0.06	-0.06
Syracuse	ACC	0.08	0.08	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Austin Peay	OVC	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Southern	SWAC	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Oklahoma	B12	0.08	0.08	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Robert Morris	NEC	0.08	0.08	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
LIU Brooklyn	NEC	0.08	0.08	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Saint Peter's	MAAC	0.08	0.08	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.08	0.08	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
East Tennessee St.	SC	0.08	0.08	71.88	71.88	0.03	0.03
Hampton	MEAC	0.08	0.08	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.08	0.08	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.08	0.08	25.81	25.81	-0.04	-0.04
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.08	0.08	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.08	0.08	44.12	44.12	-0.01	-0.01
American	Pat	0.08	0.08	20.00	20.00	-0.05	-0.05
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.08	0.08	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Georgia	SEC	0.08	0.08	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Vermont	AE	0.08	0.08	78.79	78.79	0.04	0.04
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.07	0.07	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.07	0.07	69.70	69.70	0.03	0.03
Western Illinois	Sum	0.07	0.07	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Louisville	ACC	0.07	0.07	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.07	0.07	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Penn	Ivy	0.07	0.07	74.19	74.19	0.04	0.04
Ball St.	MAC	0.07	0.07	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
La Salle	A10	0.07	0.07	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Colorado	P12	0.07	0.07	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.07	0.07	10.71	10.71	-0.06	-0.06
Stony Brook	AE	0.07	0.07	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
USC	P12	0.07	0.07	67.65	67.65	0.03	0.03
Washington St.	P12	0.07	0.07	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
BYU	WCC	0.06	0.06	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Pacific	WCC	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Pepperdine	WCC	0.06	0.06	16.13	16.13	-0.04	-0.04
Saint Mary's	WCC	0.06	0.06	84.85	84.85	0.04	0.04
San Diego	WCC	0.06	0.06	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
San Francisco	WCC	0.06	0.06	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Santa Clara	WCC	0.06	0.06	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.05	0.05	24.24	24.24	-0.03	-0.03
Jacksonville	ASun	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
North Texas	CUSA	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Richmond	A10	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Troy	SB	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Miss	CUSA	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
East Carolina	Amer	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Akron	MAC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Buffalo	MAC	0.05	0.05	75.76	75.76	0.03	0.03
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	12.50	12.50	-0.04	-0.04
North Dakota	BSky	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Toledo	MAC	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
USC Upstate	ASun	0.05	0.05	10.71	10.71	-0.04	-0.04
UT Arlington	SB	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Yale	Ivy	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Boise St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	73.33	73.33	0.02	0.02
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.05	0.05	23.08	23.08	-0.03	-0.03
Delaware	CAA	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Wake Forest	ACC	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Bryant	NEC	0.05	0.05	9.68	9.68	-0.04	-0.04
Iona	MAAC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Manhattan	MAAC	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Monmouth	MAAC	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
New Orleans	Slnd	0.05	0.05	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
NJIT	ASun	0.05	0.05	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.05	0.05	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
UCF	Amer	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Cincinnati	Amer	0.05	0.05	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
Furman	SC	0.05	0.05	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
George Washington	A10	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Princeton	Ivy	0.05	0.05	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Texas	B12	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Arizona	P12	0.05	0.05	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Belmont	OVC	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Columbia	Ivy	0.05	0.05	26.92	26.92	-0.02	-0.02
Hofstra	CAA	0.05	0.05	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Houston	Amer	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Lafayette	Pat	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Massachusetts	A10	0.05	0.05	39.39	39.39	-0.01	-0.01
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Temple	Amer	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Tennessee	SEC	0.05	0.05	75.76	75.76	0.02	0.02
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.03	0.03	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
San Jose St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	10.34	10.34	-0.02	-0.02
Seattle	WAC	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Binghamton	AE	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Canisius	MAAC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Idaho St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Illinois St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Kentucky	SEC	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Loyola Chicago	MVC	0.03	0.03	84.38	84.38	0.02	0.02
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
South Dakota	Sum	0.03	0.03	73.33	73.33	0.01	0.01
UMBC	AE	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Utah St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Alabama	SEC	0.03	0.03	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Central Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Fordham	A10	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia St.	SB	0.03	0.03	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
Longwood	BSth	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Loyola MD	Pat	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	83.33	83.33	0.02	0.02
Niagara	MAAC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Samford	SC	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Tulane	Amer	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
UAB	CUSA	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
UNLV	MWC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Valparaiso	MVC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Western Carolina	SC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
UMass Lowell	AE	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Clemson	ACC	0.02	0.02	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.02	0.02	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Long Beach St.	BW	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Miami FL	ACC	0.02	0.02	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.02	0.02	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.02	0.02	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Southern Utah	BSky	0.02	0.02	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.02	0.02	93.94	93.94	0.02	0.02
California	P12	0.02	0.02	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Colorado St.	MWC	0.02	0.02	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Fresno St.	MWC	0.02	0.02	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Stanford	P12	0.02	0.02	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00