Drake

Conference:	MVC
Expected RPI:	166.0
Current RPI:	166
Expected SOS:	137
Current SOS:	137
Current Record:	15-16
Expected Record:	15-16
Current Conf Record:	10-9
Expected Conf Record:	10-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	9-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	4-1
Current OOC Record:	5-7
Expected OOC Record:	5-7
Expected OOC RPI:	263
Expected OOC SOS:	316

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
15-16	166.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Drake.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-17	Wake Forest (160.0)	ACC	N	74-77	W	100%
11-18	Colorado (82.0)	P12	N	81-86	L	0%
11-19	Drexel (242.0)	CAA	N	90-88	W	100%
11-26	Chicago St. (335.0)	WAC	H	79-67	W	100%
11-29	Nebraska Omaha (284.0)	Sum	A	75-73	L	0%
12-2	Wyoming (98.0)	MWC	A	96-89	L	0%
12-6	South Dakota (91.0)	Sum	A	93-65	L	0%
12-9	Nebraska Omaha (284.0)	Sum	H	93-74	W	100%
12-11	Minnesota (171.0)	B10	A	68-67	L	0%
12-16	Iowa (157.0)	B10	N	90-64	L	0%
12-19	South Dakota St. (37.0)	Sum	A	87-74	L	0%
12-22	Maryland Eastern Shore (346.0)	MEAC	H	81-57	W	100%
12-28	Bradley (105.0)	MVC	H	66-64	W	100%
12-31	Southern Illinois (100.0)	MVC	A	67-70	W	100%
1-3	Illinois St. (85.0)	MVC	H	87-62	W	100%
1-6	Indiana St. (184.0)	MVC	A	72-75	W	100%
1-10	Valparaiso (188.0)	MVC	A	77-60	L	0%
1-13	Evansville (151.0)	MVC	H	81-65	W	100%
1-16	Northern Iowa (138.0)	MVC	A	68-54	L	0%
1-20	Missouri St. (136.0)	MVC	H	61-58	W	100%
1-24	Loyola Chicago (22.0)	MVC	H	57-80	L	0%
1-27	Evansville (151.0)	MVC	A	77-73	L	0%
1-30	Southern Illinois (100.0)	MVC	H	67-78	L	0%
2-3	Bradley (105.0)	MVC	A	68-78	W	100%
2-7	Loyola Chicago (22.0)	MVC	A	72-57	L	0%
2-10	Northern Iowa (138.0)	MVC	H	71-64	W	100%
2-14	Indiana St. (184.0)	MVC	H	90-76	W	100%
2-18	Missouri St. (136.0)	MVC	A	63-67	W	100%
2-21	Illinois St. (85.0)	MVC	A	89-81	L	0%
2-24	Valparaiso (188.0)	MVC	H	64-69	L	0%
3-2	Bradley (105.0)	MVC	N	61-63	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Drake's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Drake's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Drake.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Drake	MVC	26.43	26.43	49.62	49.62	-0.20	-0.20
Bradley	MVC	5.75	5.75	62.07	62.07	1.39	1.39
Loyola Chicago	MVC	4.29	4.29	83.33	83.33	2.86	2.86
Illinois St.	MVC	4.27	4.27	53.33	53.33	0.28	0.28
Missouri St.	MVC	4.24	4.24	56.67	56.67	0.57	0.57
Northern Iowa	MVC	4.24	4.24	46.43	46.43	-0.30	-0.30
Southern Illinois	MVC	4.21	4.21	60.00	60.00	0.84	0.84
Evansville	MVC	4.16	4.16	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Valparaiso	MVC	4.16	4.16	39.29	39.29	-0.89	-0.89
Indiana St.	MVC	4.15	4.15	40.74	40.74	-0.77	-0.77
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	3.36	3.36	22.22	22.22	-1.87	-1.87
South Dakota St.	Sum	1.93	1.93	79.31	79.31	1.13	1.13
South Dakota	Sum	1.86	1.86	72.41	72.41	0.83	0.83
Chicago St.	WAC	1.77	1.77	3.45	3.45	-1.64	-1.64
Iowa	B10	1.74	1.74	40.62	40.62	-0.33	-0.33
Colorado	P12	1.66	1.66	51.61	51.61	0.05	0.05
Minnesota	B10	1.66	1.66	45.16	45.16	-0.16	-0.16
Wyoming	MWC	1.64	1.64	58.06	58.06	0.26	0.26
Drexel	CAA	1.61	1.61	38.71	38.71	-0.36	-0.36
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	1.61	1.61	17.24	17.24	-1.06	-1.06
Wake Forest	ACC	1.61	1.61	36.67	36.67	-0.43	-0.43
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.35	0.35	41.38	41.38	-0.06	-0.06
Denver	Sum	0.30	0.30	46.43	46.43	-0.02	-0.02
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.29	0.29	28.57	28.57	-0.13	-0.13
Western Illinois	Sum	0.25	0.25	33.33	33.33	-0.08	-0.08
Fort Wayne	Sum	0.22	0.22	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
New Mexico	MWC	0.21	0.21	54.55	54.55	0.02	0.02
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.18	0.18	41.38	41.38	-0.03	-0.03
UMKC	WAC	0.16	0.16	27.59	27.59	-0.07	-0.07
Northwestern	B10	0.16	0.16	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
Purdue	B10	0.16	0.16	82.35	82.35	0.10	0.10
Indiana	B10	0.15	0.15	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
UNC Wilmington	CAA	0.15	0.15	30.00	30.00	-0.06	-0.06
Mississippi	SEC	0.15	0.15	37.50	37.50	-0.04	-0.04
San Jose St.	MWC	0.15	0.15	10.34	10.34	-0.12	-0.12
Georgia Southern	SB	0.15	0.15	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
Boise St.	MWC	0.15	0.15	73.33	73.33	0.07	0.07
Nevada	MWC	0.15	0.15	79.41	79.41	0.09	0.09
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.13	0.13	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
Duke	ACC	0.13	0.13	78.79	78.79	0.08	0.08
Louisville	ACC	0.13	0.13	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.13	0.13	30.00	30.00	-0.05	-0.05
Colorado St.	MWC	0.13	0.13	32.26	32.26	-0.04	-0.04
Delaware	CAA	0.13	0.13	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
San Diego St.	MWC	0.13	0.13	67.74	67.74	0.04	0.04
Montana St.	BSky	0.11	0.11	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Arkansas St.	SB	0.11	0.11	30.00	30.00	-0.04	-0.04
Ball St.	MAC	0.11	0.11	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.11	0.11	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Air Force	MWC	0.11	0.11	34.48	34.48	-0.03	-0.03
Elon	CAA	0.11	0.11	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Washington	P12	0.11	0.11	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.11	0.11	69.70	69.70	0.04	0.04
Bowling Green	MAC	0.11	0.11	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.11	0.11	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Iowa St.	B12	0.11	0.11	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Fresno St.	MWC	0.10	0.10	63.33	63.33	0.03	0.03
Kent St.	MAC	0.10	0.10	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.10	0.10	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.10	0.10	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Samford	SC	0.10	0.10	26.67	26.67	-0.05	-0.05
Utah St.	MWC	0.10	0.10	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.10	0.10	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Murray St.	OVC	0.10	0.10	82.76	82.76	0.07	0.07
Tulsa	Amer	0.10	0.10	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Wright St.	Horz	0.10	0.10	71.88	71.88	0.04	0.04
Illinois	B10	0.10	0.10	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Michigan	B10	0.10	0.10	79.41	79.41	0.06	0.06
Kansas	B12	0.08	0.08	79.41	79.41	0.05	0.05
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.05	0.05
TCU	B12	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.08	0.08	83.33	83.33	0.05	0.05
North Carolina	ACC	0.08	0.08	71.43	71.43	0.03	0.03
UNLV	MWC	0.08	0.08	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Xavier	BE	0.08	0.08	84.85	84.85	0.06	0.06
Syracuse	ACC	0.08	0.08	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Duquesne	A10	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Hampton	MEAC	0.08	0.08	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.08	0.08	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
UCLA	P12	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Maryland	B10	0.08	0.08	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.08	0.08	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Quinnipiac	MAAC	0.08	0.08	36.36	36.36	-0.02	-0.02
Arizona	P12	0.08	0.08	79.41	79.41	0.04	0.04
Arizona St.	P12	0.08	0.08	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
College of Charleston	CAA	0.08	0.08	77.42	77.42	0.04	0.04
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.08	0.08	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0.08	0.08	32.14	32.14	-0.03	-0.03
IUPUI	Horz	0.08	0.08	32.14	32.14	-0.03	-0.03
James Madison	CAA	0.08	0.08	29.03	29.03	-0.03	-0.03
Little Rock	SB	0.08	0.08	20.00	20.00	-0.05	-0.05
South Carolina	SEC	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
UTSA	CUSA	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Vermont	AE	0.08	0.08	78.79	78.79	0.04	0.04
Weber St.	BSky	0.08	0.08	60.71	60.71	0.02	0.02
Nebraska	B10	0.07	0.07	68.75	68.75	0.03	0.03
Rutgers	B10	0.07	0.07	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Southern	SWAC	0.07	0.07	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.07	0.07	75.00	75.00	0.04	0.04
Penn St.	B10	0.07	0.07	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
Auburn	SEC	0.06	0.06	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Green Bay	Horz	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
North Texas	CUSA	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Oklahoma	B12	0.06	0.06	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.06	0.06	70.00	70.00	0.02	0.02
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Austin Peay	OVC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Binghamton	AE	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Canisius	MAAC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Howard	MEAC	0.05	0.05	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Santa Clara	WCC	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Seattle	WAC	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
SMU	Amer	0.05	0.05	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.05	0.05	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
UC Riverside	BW	0.05	0.05	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
UT Arlington	SB	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Utah Valley	WAC	0.05	0.05	65.52	65.52	0.02	0.02
Villanova	BE	0.05	0.05	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
Liberty	BSth	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Notre Dame	ACC	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	25.81	25.81	-0.02	-0.02
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Houston	Amer	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Miami FL	ACC	0.05	0.05	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
BYU	WCC	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.05	0.05	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Florida	SEC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Hofstra	CAA	0.05	0.05	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.05	0.05	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Manhattan	MAAC	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Mercer	SC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Milwaukee	Horz	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	12.50	12.50	-0.04	-0.04
Northeastern	CAA	0.05	0.05	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Oregon St.	P12	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Saint Louis	A10	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Towson	CAA	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
USC	P12	0.05	0.05	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Utah	P12	0.05	0.05	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Washington St.	P12	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
William & Mary	CAA	0.05	0.05	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Winthrop	BSth	0.05	0.05	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.05	0.05	80.65	80.65	0.03	0.03
Michigan St.	B10	0.05	0.05	87.88	87.88	0.04	0.04
American	Pat	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
Buffalo	MAC	0.03	0.03	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	15.62	15.62	-0.02	-0.02
Creighton	BE	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	6.67	6.67	-0.02	-0.02
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.03	0.03	24.24	24.24	-0.01	-0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Marquette	BE	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
North Dakota	BSky	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Oakland	Horz	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Presbyterian	BSth	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Miss	CUSA	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
UC Irvine	BW	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
UMBC	AE	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Wichita St.	Amer	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
Army	Pat	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Boston College	ACC	0.03	0.03	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Charlotte	CUSA	0.03	0.03	17.86	17.86	-0.02	-0.02
Clemson	ACC	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Coastal Carolina	SB	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Richmond	A10	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.03	0.03	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
UNC Greensboro	SC	0.03	0.03	77.42	77.42	0.01	0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.03	0.03	93.94	93.94	0.02	0.02
Alabama	SEC	0.03	0.03	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.03	0.03	9.68	9.68	-0.02	-0.02
Arkansas	SEC	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
California	P12	0.03	0.03	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Chattanooga	SC	0.03	0.03	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Cincinnati	Amer	0.03	0.03	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Harvard	Ivy	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
La Salle	A10	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
Lafayette	Pat	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola MD	Pat	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.03	0.03	39.39	39.39	-0.01	-0.01
Niagara	MAAC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
NJIT	ASun	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Oregon	P12	0.03	0.03	64.71	64.71	0.01	0.01
Pacific	WCC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Providence	BE	0.03	0.03	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Rider	MAAC	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Robert Morris	NEC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
San Diego	WCC	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Stanford	P12	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Temple	Amer	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.03	0.03	44.12	44.12	-0.00	-0.00
USC Upstate	ASun	0.03	0.03	10.71	10.71	-0.02	-0.02
Western Carolina	SC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Utah	BSky	0.02	0.02	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.02	0.02	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00