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Through games of Mar 11, 2018.


Duke

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:7.0
Current RPI:7
Expected SOS:16
Current SOS:16
Current Record:26-7
Expected Record:26-7
Current Conf Record:14-6
Expected Conf Record:14-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:4-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:8-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-0
Current OOC Record:12-1
Expected OOC Record:12-1
Expected OOC RPI:2
Expected OOC SOS:20



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
26-77.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Duke.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Elon (205.0)CAAH97-68W100%0.0
11-11Utah Valley (83.0)WACH99-69W100%0.0
11-14Michigan St. (14.0)B10N81-88W100%0.0
11-17Southern (315.0)SWACH78-61W100%0.0
11-20Furman (97.0)SCH92-63W100%0.0
11-23Portland St. (170.0)BSkyN81-99W100%0.0
11-24Texas (51.0)B12N78-85W100%0.0
11-26Florida (46.0)SECN84-87W100%0.0
11-29Indiana (125.0)B10A81-91W100%0.0
12-2South Dakota (91.0)SumH96-80W100%0.0
12-5St. Francis PA (178.0)NECH124-67W100%0.0
12-9Boston College (96.0)ACCA89-84L0%0.0
12-20Evansville (151.0)MVCH104-40W100%0.0
12-30Florida St. (54.0)ACCH100-93W100%0.0
1-6North Carolina St. (64.0)ACCA96-85L0%0.0
1-10Pittsburgh (217.0)ACCA52-87W100%0.0
1-13Wake Forest (160.0)ACCH89-71W100%0.0
1-15Miami FL (28.0)ACCA75-83W100%0.0
1-20Pittsburgh (217.0)ACCH81-54W100%0.0
1-23Wake Forest (160.0)ACCA70-84W100%0.0
1-27Virginia (1.0)ACCH63-65L0%0.0
1-29Notre Dame (70.0)ACCH88-66W100%0.0
2-3St. John's (92.0)BEA81-77L0%0.0
2-8North Carolina (4.0)ACCA82-78L0%0.0
2-11Georgia Tech (161.0)ACCA69-80W100%0.0
2-14Virginia Tech (61.0)ACCH74-52W100%0.0
2-18Clemson (11.0)ACCA57-66W100%0.0
2-21Louisville (38.0)ACCH82-56W100%0.0
2-24Syracuse (45.0)ACCH60-44W100%0.0
2-26Virginia Tech (61.0)ACCA64-63L0%0.0
3-3North Carolina (4.0)ACCH74-64W100%0.0
3-8Notre Dame (70.0)ACCN88-70W100%0.0
3-9North Carolina (4.0)ACCN69-74L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Duke's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Duke's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Duke.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
DukeACC26.1126.1180.5880.5815.9615.96
North CarolinaACC5.135.1371.8871.882.252.25
Notre DameACC3.733.7361.2961.290.840.84
PittsburghACC3.563.5626.6726.67-1.66-1.66
Virginia TechACC3.563.5666.6766.671.191.19
Wake ForestACC3.543.5437.9337.93-0.85-0.85
SyracuseACC2.212.2162.5062.500.550.55
LouisvilleACC2.202.2062.5062.500.550.55
VirginiaACC2.192.1993.7593.751.911.91
North Carolina St.ACC2.162.1664.5264.520.630.63
ClemsonACC2.162.1674.1974.191.051.05
Miami FLACC2.162.1673.3373.331.011.01
Boston CollegeACC2.152.1554.5554.550.200.20
Georgia TechACC2.122.1241.9441.94-0.34-0.34
Florida St.ACC2.102.1066.6766.670.700.70
Michigan St.B101.671.6790.6290.621.361.36
IndianaB101.631.6353.3353.330.110.11
FloridaSEC1.561.5664.5264.520.450.45
FurmanSC1.541.5470.0070.000.620.62
ElonCAA1.541.5441.3841.38-0.27-0.27
St. Francis PANEC1.541.5459.2659.260.280.28
EvansvilleMVC1.521.5251.7251.720.050.05
Portland St.BSky1.521.5258.6258.620.260.26
South DakotaSum1.521.5275.8675.860.780.78
SouthernSWAC1.521.5243.3343.33-0.20-0.20
St. John'sBE1.521.5245.1645.16-0.15-0.15
TexasB121.521.5259.3859.380.280.28
Utah ValleyWAC1.521.5267.8667.860.540.54
TennesseeSEC0.210.2175.7675.760.110.11
UNC GreensboroSC0.170.1777.4277.420.090.09
IllinoisB100.170.1741.9441.94-0.03-0.03
Northern IowaMVC0.160.1646.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.160.1636.6736.67-0.04-0.04
Ohio St.B100.160.1675.0075.000.080.08
MichiganB100.160.1679.4179.410.090.09
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.150.1553.3353.330.010.01
KentuckySEC0.140.1470.5970.590.060.06
IowaB100.140.1442.4242.42-0.02-0.02
WoffordSC0.140.1460.0060.000.030.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.130.1365.6265.620.040.04
DrakeMVC0.120.1248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
DelawareCAA0.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
The CitadelSC0.120.1227.5927.59-0.05-0.05
ButlerBE0.120.1260.6160.610.030.03
RutgersB100.120.1242.4242.42-0.02-0.02
Penn St.B100.120.1261.7661.760.030.03
Oklahoma St.B120.120.1257.5857.580.020.02
WisconsinB100.120.1245.4545.45-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.120.1235.4835.48-0.03-0.03
West VirginiaB120.120.1270.5970.590.050.05
StanfordP120.110.1154.5554.550.010.01
TulaneAmer0.110.1145.1645.16-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.110.1167.6567.650.040.04
UMKCWAC0.100.1027.5927.59-0.05-0.05
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
BryantNEC0.100.109.689.68-0.08-0.08
Indiana St.MVC0.100.1037.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.100.1043.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.100.1030.0030.00-0.04-0.04
St. Francis NYNEC0.100.1037.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.100.1024.1424.14-0.05-0.05
Chicago St.WAC0.100.103.333.33-0.09-0.09
MontanaBSky0.100.1077.4277.420.050.05
TowsonCAA0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
LehighPat0.100.1051.7251.720.000.00
MinnesotaB100.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.100.1024.2424.24-0.05-0.05
Texas SouthernSWAC0.100.1044.1244.12-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
BaylorB120.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
MississippiSEC0.090.0937.5037.50-0.02-0.02
NebraskaB100.090.0968.7568.750.040.04
MarylandB100.090.0958.0658.060.020.02
Texas TechB120.090.0972.7372.730.040.04
PortlandWCC0.090.0924.1424.14-0.05-0.05
DavidsonA100.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.080.0883.3383.330.050.05
Idaho St.BSky0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.080.0860.7160.710.020.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
DenverSum0.080.0846.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.080.0816.6716.67-0.05-0.05
South Dakota St.Sum0.080.0880.0080.000.050.05
Fort WayneSum0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Missouri St.MVC0.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
NortheasternCAA0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.070.0730.0030.00-0.03-0.03
HofstraCAA0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.070.0784.3884.380.050.05
Southern IllinoisMVC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
RadfordBSth0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
SamfordSC0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
VMISC0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
NavyPat0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
TCUB120.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
RichmondA100.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
New HampshireAE0.070.0727.5927.59-0.03-0.03
North FloridaASun0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
NorthwesternB100.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.070.0727.5927.59-0.03-0.03
South CarolinaSEC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
XavierBE0.070.0784.8584.850.050.05
South Carolina St.MEAC0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
PurdueB100.070.0782.3582.350.050.05
AlabamaSEC0.070.0755.8855.880.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.070.0710.7110.71-0.06-0.06
VanderbiltSEC0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.070.0761.7661.760.020.02
LSUSEC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
Iowa St.B120.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.070.0779.4179.410.040.04
DartmouthIvy0.070.0723.0823.08-0.04-0.04
BucknellPat0.060.0673.5373.530.030.03
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
WagnerNEC0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
SeattleWAC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
North DakotaBSky0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
UC RiversideBW0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
HawaiiBW0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
BradleyMVC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
DrexelCAA0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
IdahoBSky0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
ValparaisoMVC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
William & MaryCAA0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
Stony BrookAE0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
South FloridaAmer0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
UCLAP120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.059.689.68-0.04-0.04
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
ArmyPat0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
Coastal CarolinaSB0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
HoustonAmer0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
LibertyBSth0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
MercerSC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0512.5012.50-0.04-0.04
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
UCFAmer0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
CreightonBE0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.056.676.67-0.04-0.04
DetroitHorz0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
DuquesneA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
High PointBSth0.050.0540.7440.74-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0516.6716.67-0.03-0.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0532.0032.00-0.02-0.02
MissouriSEC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
Saint LouisA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
VillanovaBE0.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
WashingtonP120.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
La SalleA100.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
IonaMAAC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
OaklandHorz0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
OklahomaB120.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
VCUA100.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Wichita St.Amer0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
ColgatePat0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
AmericanPat0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0384.8584.850.020.02
San FranciscoWCC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
BYUWCC0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
UC DavisBW0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
UTSACUSA0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
BinghamtonAE0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
OregonP120.030.0364.7164.710.010.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
San Jose St.MWC0.030.0310.3410.34-0.02-0.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Utah St.MWC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Colorado St.MWC0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.020.0276.6776.670.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
WinthropBSth0.020.0257.1457.140.000.00
ArizonaP120.020.0279.4179.410.010.01
Arizona St.P120.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
AuburnSEC0.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.020.0288.2488.240.020.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.020.0215.6215.62-0.02-0.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.020.0212.5012.50-0.02-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.020.0280.6580.650.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
TempleAmer0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
YaleIvy0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
AlbanyAE0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.020.0232.3532.35-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.020.0240.7440.74-0.00-0.00
George MasonA100.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
LipscombASun0.020.0268.9768.970.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
MemphisAmer0.020.0261.7661.760.010.01
MonmouthMAAC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.020.028.008.00-0.02-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
SienaMAAC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.020.0226.9226.92-0.01-0.01
HartfordAE0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
MaineAE0.020.0213.3313.33-0.02-0.02