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Through games of Mar 11, 2018.


Duquesne

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:259.0
Current RPI:259
Expected SOS:274
Current SOS:274
Current Record:16-16
Expected Record:16-16
Current Conf Record:7-12
Expected Conf Record:7-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-4
Current OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC RPI:275
Expected OOC SOS:349



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-16259.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Duquesne.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11St. Francis NY (276.0)NECH80-70W100%0.0
11-14VMI (313.0)SCH77-61W100%0.0
11-19Robert Morris (196.0)NECH59-66L0%0.0
11-27Cornell (248.0)IvyH71-78L0%0.0
12-1Pittsburgh (217.0)ACCN64-76L0%0.0
12-4Maryland Eastern Shore (346.0)MEACH86-61W100%0.0
12-6Stetson (325.0)ASunH73-59W100%0.0
12-9Delaware St. (351.0)MEACH97-48W100%0.0
12-13Mississippi Valley St. (349.0)SWACH73-49W100%0.0
12-17North Carolina A&T (238.0)MEACH74-58W100%0.0
12-19Lamar (230.0)SlndH65-64W100%0.0
12-22San Francisco (139.0)WCCN67-65W100%0.0
12-23Southern Illinois (100.0)MVCN64-74L0%0.0
12-30Dayton (146.0)A10H70-62W100%0.0
1-3George Washington (195.0)A10H69-52W100%0.0
1-6Fordham (290.0)A10A41-64W100%0.0
1-9VCU (135.0)A10A78-67L0%0.0
1-13La Salle (202.0)A10H101-94W100%0.0
1-17Saint Louis (148.0)A10A76-63L0%0.0
1-20George Mason (201.0)A10H95-89W100%0.0
1-24Richmond (176.0)A10H73-77L0%0.0
1-27Rhode Island (19.0)A10A61-58L0%0.0
1-31George Washington (195.0)A10A73-75W100%0.0
2-3St. Bonaventure (24.0)A10H81-84L0%0.0
2-7Dayton (146.0)A10A88-73L0%0.0
2-10Fordham (290.0)A10H57-80L0%0.0
2-17Saint Joseph's (147.0)A10A82-75L0%0.0
2-21St. Bonaventure (24.0)A10A73-67L0%0.0
2-24Davidson (47.0)A10H60-71L0%0.0
2-28Saint Louis (148.0)A10H76-69W100%0.0
3-3Massachusetts (240.0)A10A85-75L0%0.0
3-8Richmond (176.0)A10N81-68L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Duquesne's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Duquesne's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Duquesne.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
DuquesneA1026.1026.1042.6542.65-3.84-3.84
Saint LouisA103.813.8150.0050.000.000.00
St. BonaventureA103.763.7676.6776.672.012.01
George WashingtonA103.763.7648.3948.39-0.12-0.12
RichmondA103.763.7633.3333.33-1.25-1.25
FordhamA103.713.7127.5927.59-1.66-1.66
DaytonA103.683.6844.8344.83-0.38-0.38
DavidsonA102.372.3764.5264.520.690.69
VCUA102.332.3353.1253.120.150.15
Rhode IslandA102.252.2577.4277.421.231.23
Saint Joseph'sA102.222.2248.3948.39-0.07-0.07
George MasonA102.222.2250.0050.000.000.00
MassachusettsA102.202.2037.5037.50-0.55-0.55
La SalleA102.202.2041.9441.94-0.35-0.35
North Carolina A&TMEAC1.751.7558.0658.060.280.28
Delaware St.MEAC1.691.696.906.90-1.45-1.45
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC1.691.6917.2417.24-1.10-1.10
Southern IllinoisMVC1.661.6658.0658.060.270.27
St. Francis NYNEC1.661.6639.2939.29-0.36-0.36
Robert MorrisNEC1.621.6246.8846.88-0.10-0.10
LamarSlnd1.611.6155.5655.560.180.18
VMISC1.611.6125.9325.93-0.78-0.78
PittsburghACC1.591.5922.5822.58-0.87-0.87
CornellIvy1.561.5638.4638.46-0.36-0.36
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC1.561.5612.9012.90-1.16-1.16
San FranciscoWCC1.561.5654.8454.840.150.15
StetsonASun1.561.5629.6329.63-0.64-0.64
HarvardIvy0.230.2356.6756.670.030.03
PennIvy0.180.1874.1974.190.090.09
LIU BrooklynNEC0.180.1851.5251.520.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.180.1851.6151.610.010.01
WagnerNEC0.180.1870.0070.000.070.07
HowardMEAC0.170.1725.8125.81-0.08-0.08
Morgan St.MEAC0.170.1736.6736.67-0.05-0.05
Florida A&MMEAC0.150.1524.2424.24-0.08-0.08
Norfolk St.MEAC0.150.1543.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.150.1553.3353.330.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.150.1578.1278.120.080.08
HamptonMEAC0.150.1551.6151.610.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.150.1533.3333.33-0.05-0.05
East Tennessee St.SC0.130.1371.8871.880.060.06
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.130.1353.3353.330.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.130.1342.8642.86-0.02-0.02
SyracuseACC0.130.1360.6160.610.030.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.130.1343.7543.75-0.02-0.02
St. Francis PANEC0.130.1357.1457.140.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
Florida St.ACC0.120.1264.5264.520.040.04
BucknellPat0.120.1273.5373.530.060.06
Miami FLACC0.120.1270.9770.970.050.05
BrownIvy0.110.1138.4638.46-0.03-0.03
The CitadelSC0.110.1127.5927.59-0.05-0.05
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.110.1164.5264.520.030.03
YaleIvy0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
DelawareCAA0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
AuburnSEC0.100.1078.1278.120.060.06
NiagaraMAAC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
BryantNEC0.100.109.689.68-0.08-0.08
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.100.1037.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.100.1030.0030.00-0.04-0.04
GeorgetownBE0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
AkronMAC0.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.100.1084.8584.850.070.07
MaineAE0.100.1013.3313.33-0.07-0.07
Boston CollegeACC0.100.1055.8855.880.010.01
NevadaMWC0.100.1079.4179.410.060.06
VermontAE0.100.1078.7978.790.060.06
BYUWCC0.100.1070.5970.590.040.04
LouisvilleACC0.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
ProvidenceBE0.100.1061.7661.760.020.02
VirginiaACC0.100.1093.9493.940.090.09
TempleAmer0.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
Penn St.B100.100.1061.7661.760.020.02
LipscombASun0.080.0868.9768.970.030.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.080.0832.0032.00-0.03-0.03
MercerSC0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
SamfordSC0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
North FloridaASun0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
BinghamtonAE0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
NortheasternCAA0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
ManhattanMAAC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.080.0846.4346.43-0.01-0.01
RadfordBSth0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.080.0815.6215.62-0.05-0.05
Savannah St.MEAC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Tennessee TechOVC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
Notre DameACC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
DrakeMVC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MarylandB100.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
West VirginiaB120.070.0770.5970.590.030.03
Georgia St.SB0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.070.0788.2488.240.060.06
Illinois St.MVC0.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.070.0784.3884.380.050.05
Missouri St.MVC0.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.070.0782.7682.760.050.05
PacificWCC0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.070.0775.7675.760.040.04
CanisiusMAAC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
Holy CrossPat0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
James MadisonCAA0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
San DiegoWCC0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
SienaMAAC0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
RiderMAAC0.070.0770.9770.970.030.03
ColumbiaIvy0.060.0626.9226.92-0.03-0.03
DartmouthIvy0.060.0623.0823.08-0.03-0.03
LongwoodBSth0.060.0613.3313.33-0.04-0.04
ChattanoogaSC0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Coastal CarolinaSB0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.060.0610.7110.71-0.04-0.04
Incarnate WordSlnd0.060.0612.5012.50-0.04-0.04
Kennesaw St.ASun0.060.0628.5728.57-0.02-0.02
NJITASun0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.060.0680.0080.000.030.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0630.7730.77-0.02-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.060.0677.4277.420.030.03
USC UpstateASun0.060.0610.7110.71-0.04-0.04
WoffordSC0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
AmericanPat0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Fort WayneSum0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
NebraskaB100.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
ToledoMAC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
LafayettePat0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
UMass LowellAE0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
UC DavisBW0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
NavyPat0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
HofstraCAA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
OhioMAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
RutgersB100.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
TulaneAmer0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.059.689.68-0.04-0.04
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
BradleyMVC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
ButlerBE0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
ClemsonACC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
DetroitHorz0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
DukeACC0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
HoustonAmer0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.050.0571.4371.430.020.02
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Oregon St.P120.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
PepperdineWCC0.050.0516.1316.13-0.03-0.03
PortlandWCC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.050.0516.6716.67-0.03-0.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
SeattleWAC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0544.1244.12-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
ValparaisoMVC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
VillanovaBE0.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Seton HallBE0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
WinthropBSth0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
Kansas St.B120.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
New HampshireAE0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
XavierBE0.050.0584.8584.850.030.03
ColgatePat0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0344.4444.44-0.00-0.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Green BayHorz0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
MaristMAAC0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.038.008.00-0.02-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
TulsaAmer0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
UCFAmer0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
ArmyPat0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
DenverSum0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
CreightonBE0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
DePaulBE0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
LibertyBSth0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
TroySB0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
UMBCAE0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.020.0255.8855.880.000.00
Arizona St.P120.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.020.0217.8617.86-0.02-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.020.0277.4277.420.010.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
HawaiiBW0.020.0253.5753.570.000.00
High PointBSth0.020.0240.7440.74-0.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
LehighPat0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
MontanaBSky0.020.0277.4277.420.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.020.0283.3383.330.020.02
NorthwesternB100.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
San Jose St.MWC0.020.0210.3410.34-0.02-0.02
St. John'sBE0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
StanfordP120.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
UtahP120.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Washington St.P120.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.020.0214.2914.29-0.02-0.02
CaliforniaP120.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
Little RockSB0.020.0220.0020.00-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MarquetteBE0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
MichiganB100.020.0279.4179.410.010.01
MinnesotaB100.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.020.0236.3636.36-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
TexasB120.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.020.0220.0020.00-0.01-0.01