FIU

Conference:	CUSA
Expected RPI:	295.0
Current RPI:	295
Expected SOS:	298
Current SOS:	298
Current Record:	11-18
Expected Record:	11-18
Current Conf Record:	8-11
Expected Conf Record:	8-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	8-10
Current OOC Record:	3-7
Expected OOC Record:	3-7
Expected OOC RPI:	327
Expected OOC SOS:	322

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
11-18	295.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for FIU.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-12	Stetson (325.0)	ASun	H	64-70	L	0%
11-17	Elon (205.0)	CAA	N	95-87	L	0%
11-18	Milwaukee (231.0)	Horz	A	66-51	L	0%
11-27	South Carolina (90.0)	SEC	H	61-78	L	0%
12-2	South Alabama (270.0)	SB	H	87-58	W	100%
12-11	South Florida (278.0)	Amer	A	53-65	W	100%
12-13	North Florida (218.0)	ASun	A	87-85	L	0%
12-16	James Madison (272.0)	CAA	H	67-76	L	0%
12-19	Florida Gulf Coast (172.0)	ASun	H	91-88	W	100%
12-22	Hartford (198.0)	AE	H	72-79	L	0%
12-30	Florida Atlantic (275.0)	CUSA	H	58-57	W	100%
1-4	Middle Tennessee (33.0)	CUSA	H	66-71	L	0%
1-6	UAB (155.0)	CUSA	H	64-75	L	0%
1-11	UTSA (187.0)	CUSA	A	76-79	W	100%
1-13	UTEP (293.0)	CUSA	A	72-68	L	0%
1-18	Old Dominion (78.0)	CUSA	H	54-64	L	0%
1-20	Charlotte (323.0)	CUSA	H	79-59	W	100%
1-25	Rice (328.0)	CUSA	A	73-64	L	0%
1-27	North Texas (235.0)	CUSA	A	69-67	L	0%
2-1	Southern Miss (207.0)	CUSA	H	76-70	W	100%
2-3	Louisiana Tech (192.0)	CUSA	H	71-68	W	100%
2-8	Marshall (87.0)	CUSA	A	76-66	L	0%
2-10	Western Kentucky (39.0)	CUSA	A	83-76	L	0%
2-17	Florida Atlantic (275.0)	CUSA	A	77-72	L	0%
2-22	North Texas (235.0)	CUSA	H	69-68	W	100%
2-24	Rice (328.0)	CUSA	H	67-64	W	100%
3-1	Charlotte (323.0)	CUSA	A	83-89	W	100%
3-3	Old Dominion (78.0)	CUSA	A	79-53	L	0%
3-7	Southern Miss (207.0)	CUSA	N	68-69	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

FIU's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

FIU's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against FIU.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
FIU	CUSA	26.18	26.18	34.35	34.35	-8.19	-8.19
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	4.25	4.25	30.77	30.77	-1.63	-1.63
Old Dominion	CUSA	4.20	4.20	76.67	76.67	2.24	2.24
Southern Miss	CUSA	4.16	4.16	39.29	39.29	-0.89	-0.89
Charlotte	CUSA	4.15	4.15	19.23	19.23	-2.56	-2.56
North Texas	CUSA	4.14	4.14	42.86	42.86	-0.59	-0.59
Rice	CUSA	4.11	4.11	14.81	14.81	-2.89	-2.89
UTSA	CUSA	2.55	2.55	55.17	55.17	0.26	0.26
Marshall	CUSA	2.55	2.55	68.75	68.75	0.96	0.96
Western Kentucky	CUSA	2.55	2.55	68.75	68.75	0.96	0.96
UTEP	CUSA	2.53	2.53	31.03	31.03	-0.96	-0.96
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	2.52	2.52	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	2.52	2.52	75.86	75.86	1.30	1.30
UAB	CUSA	2.50	2.50	56.67	56.67	0.33	0.33
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	1.99	1.99	66.67	66.67	0.66	0.66
James Madison	CAA	1.93	1.93	26.67	26.67	-0.90	-0.90
South Florida	Amer	1.91	1.91	32.26	32.26	-0.68	-0.68
Stetson	ASun	1.89	1.89	25.93	25.93	-0.91	-0.91
North Florida	ASun	1.87	1.87	34.48	34.48	-0.58	-0.58
Elon	CAA	1.83	1.83	37.93	37.93	-0.44	-0.44
South Alabama	SB	1.81	1.81	41.38	41.38	-0.31	-0.31
Milwaukee	Horz	1.75	1.75	46.67	46.67	-0.12	-0.12
South Carolina	SEC	1.75	1.75	48.39	48.39	-0.06	-0.06
Hartford	AE	1.72	1.72	56.67	56.67	0.23	0.23
Lipscomb	ASun	0.23	0.23	68.97	68.97	0.09	0.09
Jacksonville	ASun	0.23	0.23	37.93	37.93	-0.06	-0.06
Towson	CAA	0.23	0.23	53.33	53.33	0.02	0.02
NJIT	ASun	0.20	0.20	42.86	42.86	-0.03	-0.03
USC Upstate	ASun	0.20	0.20	10.71	10.71	-0.16	-0.16
William & Mary	CAA	0.19	0.19	58.62	58.62	0.03	0.03
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.18	0.18	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.18	0.18	72.73	72.73	0.08	0.08
College of Charleston	CAA	0.17	0.17	77.42	77.42	0.10	0.10
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.17	0.17	28.57	28.57	-0.07	-0.07
UT Arlington	SB	0.17	0.17	60.61	60.61	0.04	0.04
Troy	SB	0.17	0.17	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
Indiana St.	MVC	0.17	0.17	37.93	37.93	-0.04	-0.04
Mississippi	SEC	0.14	0.14	37.50	37.50	-0.04	-0.04
Delaware	CAA	0.14	0.14	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
Appalachian St.	SB	0.14	0.14	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Drexel	CAA	0.14	0.14	37.50	37.50	-0.04	-0.04
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.14	0.14	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Arkansas St.	SB	0.12	0.12	30.00	30.00	-0.05	-0.05
Nebraska	B10	0.12	0.12	68.75	68.75	0.04	0.04
Georgia St.	SB	0.12	0.12	68.75	68.75	0.04	0.04
Texas St.	SB	0.12	0.12	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.12	0.12	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
Chattanooga	SC	0.12	0.12	25.81	25.81	-0.06	-0.06
East Carolina	Amer	0.12	0.12	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
Coastal Carolina	SB	0.11	0.11	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Hofstra	CAA	0.11	0.11	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Northeastern	CAA	0.11	0.11	68.75	68.75	0.04	0.04
UNC Wilmington	CAA	0.11	0.11	30.00	30.00	-0.05	-0.05
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.11	0.11	20.00	20.00	-0.07	-0.07
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.11	0.11	31.03	31.03	-0.04	-0.04
Auburn	SEC	0.11	0.11	78.12	78.12	0.06	0.06
Florida	SEC	0.11	0.11	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Wright St.	Horz	0.11	0.11	71.88	71.88	0.05	0.05
Richmond	A10	0.11	0.11	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Memphis	Amer	0.11	0.11	61.76	61.76	0.03	0.03
Temple	Amer	0.11	0.11	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.09	0.09	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
New Mexico	MWC	0.09	0.09	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Missouri St.	MVC	0.09	0.09	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.09	0.09	80.00	80.00	0.05	0.05
Green Bay	Horz	0.09	0.09	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Michigan	B10	0.09	0.09	79.41	79.41	0.05	0.05
Oklahoma	B12	0.09	0.09	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.09	0.09	9.68	9.68	-0.07	-0.07
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.09	0.09	80.65	80.65	0.05	0.05
UCF	Amer	0.08	0.08	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Maine	AE	0.08	0.08	13.33	13.33	-0.06	-0.06
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
New Hampshire	AE	0.08	0.08	27.59	27.59	-0.04	-0.04
Northern Kentucky	Horz	0.08	0.08	68.97	68.97	0.03	0.03
UMBC	AE	0.08	0.08	67.74	67.74	0.03	0.03
Belmont	OVC	0.08	0.08	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
Tulane	Amer	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Tulsa	Amer	0.08	0.08	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
VCU	A10	0.08	0.08	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.08	0.08	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
SMU	Amer	0.08	0.08	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Davidson	A10	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
High Point	BSth	0.06	0.06	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.06	0.06	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.06	0.06	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Presbyterian	BSth	0.06	0.06	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
Wake Forest	ACC	0.06	0.06	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.06	0.06	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.06	0.06	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	8.00	8.00	-0.05	-0.05
UNLV	MWC	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Fort Wayne	Sum	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Florida St.	ACC	0.06	0.06	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Georgetown	BE	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Georgia Southern	SB	0.06	0.06	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.06	0.06	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.06	0.06	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	32.00	32.00	-0.02	-0.02
Miami FL	ACC	0.06	0.06	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.06	0.06	83.33	83.33	0.04	0.04
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.06	0.06	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Saint Peter's	MAAC	0.06	0.06	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
San Diego	WCC	0.06	0.06	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
South Dakota	Sum	0.06	0.06	73.33	73.33	0.03	0.03
New Orleans	Slnd	0.06	0.06	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Radford	BSth	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.06	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.06	0.06	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
LSU	SEC	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Missouri	SEC	0.06	0.06	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.06	0.06	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Wofford	SC	0.06	0.06	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Albany	AE	0.06	0.06	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Binghamton	AE	0.06	0.06	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.06	0.06	32.35	32.35	-0.02	-0.02
Detroit	Horz	0.06	0.06	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
George Mason	A10	0.06	0.06	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
IUPUI	Horz	0.06	0.06	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
LIU Brooklyn	NEC	0.06	0.06	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Montana St.	BSky	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Oakland	Horz	0.06	0.06	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Stony Brook	AE	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
UMass Lowell	AE	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Vermont	AE	0.06	0.06	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Alabama	SEC	0.05	0.05	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Wichita St.	Amer	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Wisconsin	B10	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Arkansas	SEC	0.05	0.05	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Dayton	A10	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Fairfield	MAAC	0.05	0.05	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Georgia	SEC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Houston	Amer	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.05	0.05	16.67	16.67	-0.04	-0.04
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.05	0.05	75.76	75.76	0.03	0.03
Ohio	MAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Campbell	BSth	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Duquesne	A10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Marist	MAAC	0.03	0.03	19.35	19.35	-0.02	-0.02
Ball St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Boise St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	73.33	73.33	0.01	0.01
Boston University	Pat	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Bradley	MVC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Canisius	MAAC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Duke	ACC	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.03	0.03	24.24	24.24	-0.01	-0.01
Furman	SC	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.03	0.03	10.71	10.71	-0.02	-0.02
Incarnate Word	Slnd	0.03	0.03	12.50	12.50	-0.02	-0.02
La Salle	A10	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Little Rock	SB	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
Michigan St.	B10	0.03	0.03	87.88	87.88	0.02	0.02
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Murray St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	82.76	82.76	0.02	0.02
Princeton	Ivy	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.03	0.03	30.77	30.77	-0.01	-0.01
UNC Greensboro	SC	0.03	0.03	77.42	77.42	0.02	0.02
USC	P12	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Utah Valley	WAC	0.03	0.03	65.52	65.52	0.01	0.01
Washington St.	P12	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Boston College	ACC	0.03	0.03	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Bryant	NEC	0.03	0.03	9.68	9.68	-0.02	-0.02
Buffalo	MAC	0.03	0.03	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Denver	Sum	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Evansville	MVC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Iowa	B10	0.03	0.03	42.42	42.42	-0.00	-0.00
Iowa St.	B12	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola Chicago	MVC	0.03	0.03	84.38	84.38	0.02	0.02
Miami OH	MAC	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	12.50	12.50	-0.02	-0.02
Navy	Pat	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Portland	WCC	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
Quinnipiac	MAAC	0.03	0.03	36.36	36.36	-0.01	-0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Rider	MAAC	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Rutgers	B10	0.03	0.03	42.42	42.42	-0.00	-0.00
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Siena	MAAC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Texas	B12	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
The Citadel	SC	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Wagner	NEC	0.03	0.03	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
Weber St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Western Illinois	Sum	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Cincinnati	Amer	0.03	0.03	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Clemson	ACC	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Connecticut	Amer	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Indiana	B10	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Kentucky	SEC	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.03	0.03	39.39	39.39	-0.01	-0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Texas A&M	SEC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Wyoming	MWC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Akron	MAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Austin Peay	OVC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Illinois	B10	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Morehead St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	22.22	22.22	-0.01	-0.01
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Purdue	B10	0.03	0.03	82.35	82.35	0.02	0.02
Southern	SWAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Toledo	MAC	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Villanova	BE	0.03	0.03	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Xavier	BE	0.03	0.03	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02