Georgetown

Conference:	BE
Expected RPI:	169.0
Current RPI:	169
Expected SOS:	104
Current SOS:	104
Current Record:	15-15
Expected Record:	15-15
Current Conf Record:	5-14
Expected Conf Record:	5-14
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	2-7
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	9-0
Current OOC Record:	10-1
Expected OOC Record:	10-1
Expected OOC RPI:	179
Expected OOC SOS:	351

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
15-15	169.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Georgetown.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-12	Jacksonville (286.0)	ASun	H	73-57	W	100%
11-15	Mount St. Mary's (225.0)	NEC	H	102-68	W	100%
11-18	Maryland Eastern Shore (346.0)	MEAC	H	83-57	W	100%
11-25	Richmond (176.0)	A10	A	76-82	W	100%
11-28	Maine (338.0)	AE	H	76-55	W	100%
12-3	Coppin St. (343.0)	MEAC	H	76-60	W	100%
12-7	Howard (339.0)	MEAC	H	81-67	W	100%
12-9	North Carolina A&T (238.0)	MEAC	H	83-74	W	100%
12-16	Syracuse (45.0)	ACC	H	79-86	L	0%
12-20	North Texas (235.0)	CUSA	H	75-63	W	100%
12-23	Alabama A&M (350.0)	SWAC	H	89-49	W	100%
12-27	Butler (41.0)	BE	H	89-91	L	0%
12-30	Marquette (58.0)	BE	A	74-65	L	0%
1-2	DePaul (186.0)	BE	A	81-90	W	100%
1-6	Creighton (44.0)	BE	H	66-90	L	0%
1-9	St. John's (92.0)	BE	A	66-69	W	100%
1-13	Seton Hall (31.0)	BE	A	74-61	L	0%
1-17	Villanova (2.0)	BE	H	56-88	L	0%
1-20	St. John's (92.0)	BE	H	93-89	W	100%
1-24	DePaul (186.0)	BE	H	73-74	L	0%
1-27	Creighton (44.0)	BE	A	85-77	L	0%
2-3	Xavier (3.0)	BE	A	96-91	L	0%
2-6	Providence (32.0)	BE	A	73-69	L	0%
2-10	Seton Hall (31.0)	BE	H	83-80	W	100%
2-13	Butler (41.0)	BE	A	83-87	W	100%
2-21	Xavier (3.0)	BE	H	77-89	L	0%
2-24	Providence (32.0)	BE	H	69-74	L	0%
2-26	Marquette (58.0)	BE	H	86-90	L	0%
3-3	Villanova (2.0)	BE	A	97-73	L	0%
3-7	St. John's (92.0)	BE	N	88-77	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Georgetown's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Georgetown's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Georgetown.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Georgetown	BE	26.35	26.35	43.57	43.57	-3.39	-3.39
St. John's	BE	5.87	5.87	48.28	48.28	-0.20	-0.20
Providence	BE	4.37	4.37	59.38	59.38	0.82	0.82
Villanova	BE	4.36	4.36	87.50	87.50	3.27	3.27
Marquette	BE	4.34	4.34	56.67	56.67	0.58	0.58
Xavier	BE	4.34	4.34	83.87	83.87	2.94	2.94
Butler	BE	4.31	4.31	61.29	61.29	0.97	0.97
DePaul	BE	4.28	4.28	34.48	34.48	-1.33	-1.33
Creighton	BE	4.28	4.28	62.07	62.07	1.03	1.03
Seton Hall	BE	4.26	4.26	66.67	66.67	1.42	1.42
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	1.85	1.85	17.24	17.24	-1.21	-1.21
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	1.83	1.83	58.06	58.06	0.30	0.30
Howard	MEAC	1.80	1.80	26.67	26.67	-0.84	-0.84
Coppin St.	MEAC	1.78	1.78	16.13	16.13	-1.20	-1.20
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	1.74	1.74	55.17	55.17	0.18	0.18
Alabama A&M	SWAC	1.72	1.72	10.00	10.00	-1.38	-1.38
Jacksonville	ASun	1.69	1.69	39.29	39.29	-0.36	-0.36
Maine	AE	1.67	1.67	13.79	13.79	-1.21	-1.21
North Texas	CUSA	1.67	1.67	44.83	44.83	-0.17	-0.17
Richmond	A10	1.67	1.67	38.71	38.71	-0.38	-0.38
Syracuse	ACC	1.67	1.67	59.38	59.38	0.31	0.31
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.27	0.27	43.75	43.75	-0.03	-0.03
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.22	0.22	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.21	0.21	51.61	51.61	0.01	0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.21	0.21	6.67	6.67	-0.18	-0.18
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.21	0.21	30.00	30.00	-0.08	-0.08
Hampton	MEAC	0.21	0.21	51.61	51.61	0.01	0.01
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.18	0.18	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.16	0.16	26.67	26.67	-0.08	-0.08
Vermont	AE	0.16	0.16	78.79	78.79	0.09	0.09
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.16	0.16	36.67	36.67	-0.04	-0.04
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.16	0.16	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.16	0.16	24.24	24.24	-0.08	-0.08
Nebraska	B10	0.16	0.16	68.75	68.75	0.06	0.06
VCU	A10	0.16	0.16	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Boston College	ACC	0.15	0.15	55.88	55.88	0.02	0.02
Saint Louis	A10	0.15	0.15	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.14	0.14	28.57	28.57	-0.06	-0.06
American	Pat	0.13	0.13	20.00	20.00	-0.08	-0.08
Gonzaga	WCC	0.13	0.13	88.24	88.24	0.10	0.10
George Washington	A10	0.13	0.13	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Arizona St.	P12	0.13	0.13	64.52	64.52	0.04	0.04
Rhode Island	A10	0.13	0.13	78.12	78.12	0.07	0.07
USC Upstate	ASun	0.11	0.11	10.71	10.71	-0.09	-0.09
NJIT	ASun	0.11	0.11	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
UAB	CUSA	0.11	0.11	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.11	0.11	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Wagner	NEC	0.11	0.11	70.00	70.00	0.04	0.04
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.11	0.11	25.00	25.00	-0.05	-0.05
Northwestern	B10	0.11	0.11	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Notre Dame	ACC	0.11	0.11	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.11	0.11	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.11	0.11	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.11	0.11	78.12	78.12	0.06	0.06
Stony Brook	AE	0.10	0.10	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Baylor	B12	0.10	0.10	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.10	0.10	20.00	20.00	-0.06	-0.06
Maryland	B10	0.10	0.10	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Duke	ACC	0.10	0.10	78.79	78.79	0.06	0.06
Iona	MAAC	0.10	0.10	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Massachusetts	A10	0.10	0.10	39.39	39.39	-0.02	-0.02
Purdue	B10	0.10	0.10	82.35	82.35	0.07	0.07
Wisconsin	B10	0.10	0.10	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Cincinnati	Amer	0.10	0.10	88.24	88.24	0.08	0.08
Wake Forest	ACC	0.10	0.10	35.48	35.48	-0.03	-0.03
Morehead St.	OVC	0.10	0.10	22.22	22.22	-0.06	-0.06
Connecticut	Amer	0.10	0.10	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.10	0.10	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Rider	MAAC	0.10	0.10	70.97	70.97	0.04	0.04
Lipscomb	ASun	0.09	0.09	68.97	68.97	0.03	0.03
North Florida	ASun	0.09	0.09	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Robert Morris	NEC	0.08	0.08	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
UTEP	CUSA	0.08	0.08	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.05	0.05
UMBC	AE	0.08	0.08	67.74	67.74	0.03	0.03
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.08	0.08	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
UT Arlington	SB	0.08	0.08	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Ohio	MAC	0.08	0.08	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.08	0.08	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
Oregon	P12	0.08	0.08	64.71	64.71	0.02	0.02
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.08	0.08	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.08	0.08	44.12	44.12	-0.01	-0.01
Indiana	B10	0.08	0.08	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Marshall	CUSA	0.08	0.08	69.70	69.70	0.03	0.03
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.08	0.08	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Missouri	SEC	0.08	0.08	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
New Orleans	Slnd	0.08	0.08	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Rutgers	B10	0.08	0.08	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
UCF	Amer	0.08	0.08	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Louisville	ACC	0.08	0.08	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Columbia	Ivy	0.08	0.08	26.92	26.92	-0.04	-0.04
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.08	0.08	69.70	69.70	0.03	0.03
Minnesota	B10	0.08	0.08	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Penn	Ivy	0.08	0.08	74.19	74.19	0.04	0.04
La Salle	A10	0.08	0.08	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.06	0.06	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Stetson	ASun	0.06	0.06	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Michigan	B10	0.06	0.06	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Albany	AE	0.06	0.06	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Binghamton	AE	0.06	0.06	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Bryant	NEC	0.06	0.06	9.68	9.68	-0.04	-0.04
FIU	CUSA	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0.06	0.06	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
Hartford	AE	0.06	0.06	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
LIU Brooklyn	NEC	0.06	0.06	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.06	0.06	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
New Hampshire	AE	0.06	0.06	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
Rice	CUSA	0.06	0.06	17.24	17.24	-0.04	-0.04
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.06	0.06	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
UMass Lowell	AE	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
UTSA	CUSA	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Liberty	BSth	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Southern Miss	CUSA	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Fordham	A10	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois	B10	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Miami OH	MAC	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.05	0.05	87.88	87.88	0.04	0.04
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	12.50	12.50	-0.04	-0.04
North Dakota	BSky	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Portland	WCC	0.05	0.05	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Southern	SWAC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
UCLA	P12	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Yale	Ivy	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Chicago St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	3.33	3.33	-0.05	-0.05
Davidson	A10	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
East Carolina	Amer	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
George Mason	A10	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia	SEC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
LSU	SEC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Manhattan	MAAC	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Monmouth	MAAC	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Saint Peter's	MAAC	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Wichita St.	Amer	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Clemson	ACC	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Colorado	P12	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
East Tennessee St.	SC	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Furman	SC	0.05	0.05	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Kent St.	MAC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
North Carolina	ACC	0.05	0.05	71.43	71.43	0.02	0.02
Ohio St.	B10	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Portland St.	BSky	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Princeton	Ivy	0.05	0.05	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Texas	B12	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Utah	P12	0.05	0.05	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.05	0.05	93.94	93.94	0.04	0.04
Western Illinois	Sum	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Belmont	OVC	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Brown	Ivy	0.05	0.05	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Hofstra	CAA	0.05	0.05	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Houston	Amer	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.05	0.05	10.71	10.71	-0.04	-0.04
Lafayette	Pat	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Temple	Amer	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Tennessee	SEC	0.05	0.05	75.76	75.76	0.03	0.03
Washington	P12	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Fairfield	MAAC	0.03	0.03	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Milwaukee	Horz	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Wright St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Boston University	Pat	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Charlotte	CUSA	0.03	0.03	17.86	17.86	-0.02	-0.02
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.03	0.03	23.08	23.08	-0.01	-0.01
Drake	MVC	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Indiana St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Lehigh	Pat	0.03	0.03	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Loyola MD	Pat	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	32.00	32.00	-0.01	-0.01
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.03	0.03	76.67	76.67	0.01	0.01
Oklahoma	B12	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Quinnipiac	MAAC	0.03	0.03	36.36	36.36	-0.01	-0.01
San Diego	WCC	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
South Alabama	SB	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Alabama	SEC	0.03	0.03	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Arkansas St.	SB	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Austin Peay	OVC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Georgia St.	SB	0.03	0.03	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
Hawaii	BW	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Niagara	MAAC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Samford	SC	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
South Florida	Amer	0.03	0.03	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
UNC Wilmington	CAA	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Western Carolina	SC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Bucknell	Pat	0.03	0.03	73.53	73.53	0.01	0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	32.35	32.35	-0.01	-0.01
Dayton	A10	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Delaware	CAA	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
Navy	Pat	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.03	0.03	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Presbyterian	BSth	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Radford	BSth	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
The Citadel	SC	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
West Virginia	B12	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.03	0.03	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
Colgate	Pat	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Cornell	Ivy	0.03	0.03	40.74	40.74	-0.00	-0.00
Florida St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Kansas	B12	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.01	0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Oakland	Horz	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Toledo	MAC	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01