Hawaii

Conference:	BW
Expected RPI:	213.0
Current RPI:	213
Expected SOS:	221
Current SOS:	221
Current Record:	15-13
Expected Record:	15-13
Current Conf Record:	8-9
Expected Conf Record:	8-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	6-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	7-4
Current OOC Record:	7-4
Expected OOC Record:	7-4
Expected OOC RPI:	160
Expected OOC SOS:	109

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
15-13	213.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Hawaii.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Arkansas Pine Bluff (307.0)	SWAC	H	82-70	W	100%
11-12	North Dakota (221.0)	BSky	H	81-78	W	100%
11-13	Troy (194.0)	SB	H	72-67	W	100%
11-24	Nevada (17.0)	MWC	H	54-67	L	0%
12-2	Utah (59.0)	P12	A	80-60	L	0%
12-6	Prairie View A&M (247.0)	SWAC	H	72-60	W	100%
12-17	Utah Valley (83.0)	WAC	H	70-69	W	100%
12-22	Miami FL (28.0)	ACC	H	57-75	L	0%
12-23	Davidson (47.0)	A10	H	79-71	W	100%
12-25	Princeton (226.0)	Ivy	H	63-77	L	0%
12-29	Howard (339.0)	MEAC	H	84-59	W	100%
1-4	Long Beach St. (191.0)	BW	A	89-81	L	0%
1-6	Cal St. Northridge (340.0)	BW	A	46-65	W	100%
1-10	Cal Poly (305.0)	BW	H	57-45	W	100%
1-13	UC Santa Barbara (127.0)	BW	H	77-76	W	100%
1-20	UC Davis (102.0)	BW	H	77-72	W	100%
1-27	Cal St. Fullerton (131.0)	BW	H	66-69	L	0%
2-1	UC Santa Barbara (127.0)	BW	A	84-82	L	0%
2-3	Cal Poly (305.0)	BW	A	78-64	L	0%
2-7	UC Riverside (300.0)	BW	H	60-64	L	0%
2-10	Cal St. Northridge (340.0)	BW	H	71-77	L	0%
2-15	UC Irvine (119.0)	BW	A	61-62	W	100%
2-17	UC Riverside (300.0)	BW	A	69-74	W	100%
2-22	Long Beach St. (191.0)	BW	H	74-63	W	100%
2-24	UC Irvine (119.0)	BW	H	57-66	L	0%
3-1	UC Davis (102.0)	BW	A	70-59	L	0%
3-3	Cal St. Fullerton (131.0)	BW	A	60-68	W	100%
3-8	UC Irvine (119.0)	BW	N	68-67	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Hawaii's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Hawaii's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Hawaii.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Hawaii	BW	26.41	26.41	46.92	46.92	-1.63	-1.63
UC Irvine	BW	6.35	6.35	46.67	46.67	-0.42	-0.42
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	4.72	4.72	62.96	62.96	1.22	1.22
UC Davis	BW	4.65	4.65	67.86	67.86	1.66	1.66
UC Santa Barbara	BW	4.63	4.63	71.43	71.43	1.99	1.99
Cal Poly	BW	4.55	4.55	22.22	22.22	-2.53	-2.53
UC Riverside	BW	4.55	4.55	22.22	22.22	-2.53	-2.53
Long Beach St.	BW	4.53	4.53	41.38	41.38	-0.78	-0.78
Cal St. Northridge	BW	4.46	4.46	11.54	11.54	-3.43	-3.43
Utah Valley	WAC	2.06	2.06	67.86	67.86	0.74	0.74
Nevada	MWC	1.95	1.95	78.79	78.79	1.13	1.13
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	1.93	1.93	46.88	46.88	-0.12	-0.12
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	1.90	1.90	41.18	41.18	-0.34	-0.34
Princeton	Ivy	1.88	1.88	40.74	40.74	-0.35	-0.35
North Dakota	BSky	1.87	1.87	34.48	34.48	-0.58	-0.58
Troy	SB	1.84	1.84	46.67	46.67	-0.12	-0.12
Miami FL	ACC	1.82	1.82	70.00	70.00	0.73	0.73
Utah	P12	1.81	1.81	62.07	62.07	0.44	0.44
Davidson	A10	1.81	1.81	67.74	67.74	0.64	0.64
Howard	MEAC	1.79	1.79	26.67	26.67	-0.83	-0.83
Montana	BSky	0.36	0.36	77.42	77.42	0.19	0.19
California	P12	0.28	0.28	25.81	25.81	-0.13	-0.13
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.27	0.27	16.67	16.67	-0.18	-0.18
Fresno St.	MWC	0.26	0.26	63.33	63.33	0.07	0.07
Pepperdine	WCC	0.24	0.24	16.13	16.13	-0.16	-0.16
Pacific	WCC	0.23	0.23	41.94	41.94	-0.04	-0.04
Idaho	BSky	0.23	0.23	68.97	68.97	0.09	0.09
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.23	0.23	83.33	83.33	0.15	0.15
Idaho St.	BSky	0.22	0.22	42.86	42.86	-0.03	-0.03
USC	P12	0.21	0.21	67.65	67.65	0.08	0.08
San Francisco	WCC	0.20	0.20	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.19	0.19	33.33	33.33	-0.06	-0.06
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.18	0.18	61.29	61.29	0.04	0.04
Oregon St.	P12	0.17	0.17	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Utah St.	MWC	0.16	0.16	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.16	0.16	12.50	12.50	-0.12	-0.12
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.16	0.16	44.12	44.12	-0.02	-0.02
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.15	0.15	65.62	65.62	0.05	0.05
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.15	0.15	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Stanford	P12	0.15	0.15	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Montana St.	BSky	0.15	0.15	36.67	36.67	-0.04	-0.04
George Washington	A10	0.15	0.15	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Saint Mary's	WCC	0.14	0.14	84.85	84.85	0.10	0.10
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.14	0.14	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
Arizona St.	P12	0.14	0.14	64.52	64.52	0.04	0.04
UCLA	P12	0.14	0.14	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
UNLV	MWC	0.14	0.14	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.13	0.13	25.00	25.00	-0.07	-0.07
Southern	SWAC	0.13	0.13	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Harvard	Ivy	0.13	0.13	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Seattle	WAC	0.12	0.12	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.12	0.12	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
Washington	P12	0.12	0.12	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Washington St.	P12	0.12	0.12	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
Arizona	P12	0.12	0.12	79.41	79.41	0.07	0.07
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.12	0.12	25.00	25.00	-0.06	-0.06
Weber St.	BSky	0.12	0.12	60.71	60.71	0.02	0.02
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.12	0.12	24.24	24.24	-0.06	-0.06
Georgia St.	SB	0.11	0.11	68.75	68.75	0.04	0.04
Air Force	MWC	0.11	0.11	34.48	34.48	-0.04	-0.04
Santa Clara	WCC	0.11	0.11	34.48	34.48	-0.04	-0.04
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.11	0.11	13.33	13.33	-0.08	-0.08
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.11	0.11	80.00	80.00	0.07	0.07
Colorado St.	MWC	0.11	0.11	32.26	32.26	-0.04	-0.04
Rhode Island	A10	0.11	0.11	78.12	78.12	0.06	0.06
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.11	0.11	9.68	9.68	-0.08	-0.08
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.11	0.11	25.81	25.81	-0.05	-0.05
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.11	0.11	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.11	0.11	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.09	0.09	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Penn	Ivy	0.09	0.09	74.19	74.19	0.04	0.04
BYU	WCC	0.09	0.09	70.59	70.59	0.04	0.04
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	0.09	0.09	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
George Mason	A10	0.09	0.09	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Portland St.	BSky	0.09	0.09	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.09	0.09	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
UT Arlington	SB	0.09	0.09	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Missouri	SEC	0.09	0.09	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Nebraska	B10	0.09	0.09	68.75	68.75	0.03	0.03
Southern Utah	BSky	0.09	0.09	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
SMU	Amer	0.09	0.09	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Oregon	P12	0.09	0.09	64.71	64.71	0.03	0.03
Texas A&M	SEC	0.09	0.09	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.09	0.09	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
South Alabama	SB	0.09	0.09	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Radford	BSth	0.09	0.09	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Appalachian St.	SB	0.09	0.09	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.09	0.09	71.43	71.43	0.04	0.04
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.05	0.05
Denver	Sum	0.08	0.08	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.08	0.08	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Rider	MAAC	0.08	0.08	70.97	70.97	0.03	0.03
San Diego St.	MWC	0.08	0.08	67.74	67.74	0.03	0.03
Binghamton	AE	0.06	0.06	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Brown	Ivy	0.06	0.06	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Columbia	Ivy	0.06	0.06	26.92	26.92	-0.03	-0.03
Cornell	Ivy	0.06	0.06	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.06	0.06	23.08	23.08	-0.03	-0.03
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Yale	Ivy	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Butler	BE	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Chicago St.	WAC	0.06	0.06	3.33	3.33	-0.06	-0.06
College of Charleston	CAA	0.06	0.06	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
Georgia	SEC	0.06	0.06	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Michigan	B10	0.06	0.06	79.41	79.41	0.04	0.04
Portland	WCC	0.06	0.06	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
UMKC	WAC	0.06	0.06	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
Valparaiso	MVC	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.06	0.06	76.67	76.67	0.03	0.03
Akron	MAC	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Duke	ACC	0.06	0.06	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Kentucky	SEC	0.06	0.06	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Colorado	P12	0.06	0.06	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Lamar	Slnd	0.06	0.06	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.06	0.06	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
San Diego	WCC	0.06	0.06	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Gonzaga	WCC	0.06	0.06	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
Arkansas St.	SB	0.06	0.06	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Boston College	ACC	0.06	0.06	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Coastal Carolina	SB	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	6.67	6.67	-0.05	-0.05
Florida St.	ACC	0.06	0.06	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Georgia Southern	SB	0.06	0.06	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.06	0.06	80.65	80.65	0.04	0.04
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.06	0.06	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.06	0.06	16.67	16.67	-0.04	-0.04
Michigan St.	B10	0.06	0.06	87.88	87.88	0.04	0.04
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
West Virginia	B12	0.06	0.06	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
La Salle	A10	0.06	0.06	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
UNC Wilmington	CAA	0.06	0.06	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Virginia	ACC	0.06	0.06	93.94	93.94	0.05	0.05
Fordham	A10	0.06	0.06	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Richmond	A10	0.06	0.06	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Saint Louis	A10	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Texas St.	SB	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
New Mexico	MWC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Boise St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	73.33	73.33	0.02	0.02
San Jose St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	10.34	10.34	-0.04	-0.04
Wyoming	MWC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Lafayette	Pat	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Lehigh	Pat	0.03	0.03	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Monmouth	MAAC	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
UTSA	CUSA	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Creighton	BE	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	8.00	8.00	-0.03	-0.02
American	Pat	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
Arkansas	SEC	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Austin Peay	OVC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Boston University	Pat	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Clemson	ACC	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	15.62	15.62	-0.02	-0.02
East Tennessee St.	SC	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Hampton	MEAC	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Indiana	B10	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Liberty	BSth	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Little Rock	SB	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
Louisville	ACC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Navy	Pat	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Notre Dame	ACC	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
South Florida	Amer	0.03	0.03	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Miss	CUSA	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Syracuse	ACC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
UTEP	CUSA	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Wake Forest	ACC	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Charlotte	CUSA	0.03	0.03	17.86	17.86	-0.02	-0.02
Dayton	A10	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Duquesne	A10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Massachusetts	A10	0.03	0.03	39.39	39.39	-0.01	-0.01
VCU	A10	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
VMI	SC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Houston	Amer	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
Ohio	MAC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Tulsa	Amer	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
TCU	B12	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Canisius	MAAC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Cincinnati	Amer	0.03	0.03	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01