Hofstra

Conference:	CAA
Expected RPI:	121.0
Current RPI:	121
Expected SOS:	152
Current SOS:	152
Current Record:	18-12
Expected Record:	18-12
Current Conf Record:	12-7
Expected Conf Record:	12-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	4-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	11-5
Current OOC Record:	6-5
Expected OOC Record:	6-5
Expected OOC RPI:	125
Expected OOC SOS:	108

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
18-12	121.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Hofstra.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Army (280.0)	Pat	H	77-74	W	100%
11-13	Kennesaw St. (301.0)	ASun	H	75-57	W	100%
11-16	Dayton (146.0)	A10	N	72-69	W	100%
11-17	Clemson (11.0)	ACC	N	59-78	L	0%
11-19	Auburn (15.0)	SEC	N	78-89	L	0%
11-25	Siena (299.0)	MAAC	A	85-76	L	0%
12-6	Monmouth (199.0)	MAAC	A	84-85	W	100%
12-9	Rider (69.0)	MAAC	A	82-88	W	100%
12-12	Stony Brook (208.0)	AE	A	81-84	W	100%
12-20	Manhattan (228.0)	MAAC	H	61-63	L	0%
12-22	Villanova (2.0)	BE	N	71-95	L	0%
12-30	William & Mary (94.0)	CAA	A	90-87	L	0%
1-2	Northeastern (55.0)	CAA	A	70-71	W	100%
1-5	James Madison (272.0)	CAA	H	87-81	W	100%
1-7	Elon (205.0)	CAA	H	76-89	L	0%
1-11	Towson (153.0)	CAA	A	73-76	W	100%
1-13	Drexel (242.0)	CAA	A	86-91	W	100%
1-18	Delaware (233.0)	CAA	H	90-63	W	100%
1-20	College of Charleston (57.0)	CAA	A	76-70	L	0%
1-25	Northeastern (55.0)	CAA	H	67-81	L	0%
1-27	Delaware (233.0)	CAA	A	59-64	W	100%
2-1	UNC Wilmington (245.0)	CAA	H	96-76	W	100%
2-3	College of Charleston (57.0)	CAA	H	85-86	L	0%
2-8	Elon (205.0)	CAA	A	48-67	W	100%
2-10	UNC Wilmington (245.0)	CAA	A	90-70	L	0%
2-15	William & Mary (94.0)	CAA	H	90-84	W	100%
2-17	Drexel (242.0)	CAA	H	88-76	W	100%
2-22	James Madison (272.0)	CAA	A	61-77	W	100%
2-24	Towson (153.0)	CAA	H	91-86	W	100%
3-4	UNC Wilmington (245.0)	CAA	N	88-93	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Hofstra's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Hofstra's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Hofstra.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Hofstra	CAA	26.41	26.41	60.53	60.53	5.56	5.56
UNC Wilmington	CAA	5.92	5.92	25.93	25.93	-2.85	-2.85
Northeastern	CAA	4.45	4.45	70.00	70.00	1.78	1.78
College of Charleston	CAA	4.45	4.45	75.86	75.86	2.30	2.30
Drexel	CAA	4.40	4.40	40.00	40.00	-0.88	-0.88
Delaware	CAA	4.37	4.37	41.38	41.38	-0.75	-0.75
William & Mary	CAA	4.36	4.36	59.26	59.26	0.81	0.81
Towson	CAA	4.34	4.34	57.14	57.14	0.62	0.62
James Madison	CAA	4.31	4.31	31.03	31.03	-1.64	-1.64
Elon	CAA	4.31	4.31	39.29	39.29	-0.92	-0.92
Manhattan	MAAC	1.88	1.88	43.33	43.33	-0.25	-0.25
Siena	MAAC	1.85	1.85	22.58	22.58	-1.02	-1.02
Rider	MAAC	1.85	1.85	73.33	73.33	0.86	0.86
Monmouth	MAAC	1.83	1.83	36.67	36.67	-0.49	-0.49
Auburn	SEC	1.69	1.69	77.42	77.42	0.93	0.93
Dayton	A10	1.69	1.69	46.67	46.67	-0.11	-0.11
Army	Pat	1.67	1.67	42.86	42.86	-0.24	-0.24
Clemson	ACC	1.67	1.67	70.97	70.97	0.70	0.70
Kennesaw St.	ASun	1.67	1.67	29.63	29.63	-0.68	-0.68
Stony Brook	AE	1.67	1.67	40.00	40.00	-0.33	-0.33
Villanova	BE	1.67	1.67	87.88	87.88	1.26	1.26
Saint Peter's	MAAC	0.30	0.30	43.75	43.75	-0.04	-0.04
Quinnipiac	MAAC	0.26	0.26	36.36	36.36	-0.07	-0.07
Marist	MAAC	0.24	0.24	19.35	19.35	-0.15	-0.15
Canisius	MAAC	0.24	0.24	65.62	65.62	0.08	0.08
Iona	MAAC	0.24	0.24	60.61	60.61	0.05	0.05
Fairfield	MAAC	0.21	0.21	51.52	51.52	0.01	0.01
Loyola MD	Pat	0.19	0.19	26.67	26.67	-0.09	-0.09
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.19	0.19	78.12	78.12	0.11	0.11
UNC Greensboro	SC	0.19	0.19	77.42	77.42	0.11	0.11
Furman	SC	0.19	0.19	67.74	67.74	0.07	0.07
Bucknell	Pat	0.19	0.19	73.53	73.53	0.09	0.09
Niagara	MAAC	0.19	0.19	59.38	59.38	0.04	0.04
Boston University	Pat	0.17	0.17	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
George Mason	A10	0.16	0.16	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
La Salle	A10	0.16	0.16	40.62	40.62	-0.03	-0.03
Vermont	AE	0.16	0.16	78.79	78.79	0.09	0.09
UMBC	AE	0.14	0.14	67.74	67.74	0.05	0.05
Ohio St.	B10	0.14	0.14	75.00	75.00	0.07	0.07
Richmond	A10	0.13	0.13	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Lafayette	Pat	0.13	0.13	30.00	30.00	-0.05	-0.05
Penn	Ivy	0.13	0.13	74.19	74.19	0.06	0.06
Albany	AE	0.13	0.13	67.74	67.74	0.05	0.05
Cornell	Ivy	0.13	0.13	40.74	40.74	-0.02	-0.02
Temple	Amer	0.13	0.13	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Providence	BE	0.13	0.13	61.76	61.76	0.03	0.03
NJIT	ASun	0.11	0.11	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
Hampton	MEAC	0.11	0.11	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
High Point	BSth	0.11	0.11	40.74	40.74	-0.02	-0.02
Navy	Pat	0.11	0.11	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
Yale	Ivy	0.11	0.11	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Holy Cross	Pat	0.11	0.11	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Lehigh	Pat	0.11	0.11	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Davidson	A10	0.11	0.11	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
LSU	SEC	0.11	0.11	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
FIU	CUSA	0.11	0.11	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Radford	BSth	0.11	0.11	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Charlotte	CUSA	0.11	0.11	17.86	17.86	-0.07	-0.07
Rhode Island	A10	0.11	0.11	78.12	78.12	0.06	0.06
Florida	SEC	0.11	0.11	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Robert Morris	NEC	0.11	0.11	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.11	0.11	78.12	78.12	0.06	0.06
Connecticut	Amer	0.10	0.10	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Butler	BE	0.10	0.10	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Seton Hall	BE	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Jacksonville	ASun	0.09	0.09	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.09	0.09	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Georgia Southern	SB	0.09	0.09	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Campbell	BSth	0.08	0.08	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
East Carolina	Amer	0.08	0.08	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Howard	MEAC	0.08	0.08	25.81	25.81	-0.04	-0.04
Loyola Chicago	MVC	0.08	0.08	84.38	84.38	0.06	0.06
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.08	0.08	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Valparaiso	MVC	0.08	0.08	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Binghamton	AE	0.08	0.08	31.03	31.03	-0.03	-0.03
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Florida St.	ACC	0.08	0.08	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Mercer	SC	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Duke	ACC	0.08	0.08	78.79	78.79	0.05	0.05
Indiana St.	MVC	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.08	0.08	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
Hartford	AE	0.08	0.08	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
VCU	A10	0.08	0.08	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Columbia	Ivy	0.08	0.08	26.92	26.92	-0.04	-0.04
Notre Dame	ACC	0.08	0.08	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Western Carolina	SC	0.08	0.08	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Harvard	Ivy	0.08	0.08	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.08	0.08	93.94	93.94	0.07	0.07
Alabama	SEC	0.08	0.08	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Xavier	BE	0.08	0.08	84.85	84.85	0.05	0.05
Marquette	BE	0.07	0.07	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Lipscomb	ASun	0.06	0.06	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
North Florida	ASun	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Stetson	ASun	0.06	0.06	28.57	28.57	-0.03	-0.03
USC Upstate	ASun	0.06	0.06	10.71	10.71	-0.05	-0.05
American	Pat	0.06	0.06	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Colgate	Pat	0.06	0.06	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.06	0.06	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
TCU	B12	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
UCF	Amer	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Samford	SC	0.06	0.06	26.67	26.67	-0.03	-0.03
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0.06	0.06	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
Milwaukee	Horz	0.06	0.06	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Oakland	Horz	0.06	0.06	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
South Florida	Amer	0.06	0.06	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
Wake Forest	ACC	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Appalachian St.	SB	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Bradley	MVC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.05	0.05	75.76	75.76	0.03	0.03
Cal Poly	BW	0.05	0.05	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Coastal Carolina	SB	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	6.67	6.67	-0.05	-0.05
Duquesne	A10	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Fordham	A10	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
George Washington	A10	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Longwood	BSth	0.05	0.05	13.33	13.33	-0.04	-0.04
Maine	AE	0.05	0.05	13.33	13.33	-0.04	-0.04
Massachusetts	A10	0.05	0.05	39.39	39.39	-0.01	-0.01
New Hampshire	AE	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Kentucky	Horz	0.05	0.05	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
Saint Louis	A10	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.03	-0.03
The Citadel	SC	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
UMass Lowell	AE	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
UTSA	CUSA	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Wagner	NEC	0.05	0.05	70.00	70.00	0.02	0.02
Weber St.	BSky	0.05	0.05	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Wichita St.	Amer	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Kentucky	SEC	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
UNC Asheville	BSth	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.05	0.05	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Boston College	ACC	0.05	0.05	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Drake	MVC	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia	SEC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Houston	Amer	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Kent St.	MAC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Louisville	ACC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.05	0.05	71.43	71.43	0.02	0.02
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Stanford	P12	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Utah St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Tennessee	SEC	0.05	0.05	75.76	75.76	0.03	0.03
Creighton	BE	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
DePaul	BE	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
St. John's	BE	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Seattle	WAC	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Texas Tech	B12	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Washington	P12	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Akron	MAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Brown	Ivy	0.03	0.03	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia St.	SB	0.03	0.03	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
LIU Brooklyn	NEC	0.03	0.03	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Maryland	B10	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Michigan St.	B10	0.03	0.03	87.88	87.88	0.02	0.02
Missouri St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.03	0.03	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Princeton	Ivy	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Rutgers	B10	0.03	0.03	42.42	42.42	-0.00	-0.00
Saint Mary's	WCC	0.03	0.03	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.03	0.03	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Tulsa	Amer	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
UC Irvine	BW	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
UMKC	WAC	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Bryant	NEC	0.03	0.03	9.68	9.68	-0.02	-0.02
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
Memphis	Amer	0.03	0.03	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.03	0.03	76.67	76.67	0.01	0.01
Missouri	SEC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Murray St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	82.76	82.76	0.02	0.02
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Syracuse	ACC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Texas A&M	SEC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.03	0.03	44.12	44.12	-0.00	-0.00
UAB	CUSA	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Winthrop	BSth	0.03	0.03	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Gonzaga	WCC	0.02	0.02	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.02	0.02	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.02	0.02	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.02	0.02	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01