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Through games of Mar 11, 2018.


Houston

Conference:Amer
Expected RPI:18.0
Current RPI:18
Expected SOS:72
Current SOS:72
Current Record:26-7
Expected Record:26-7
Current Conf Record:16-5
Expected Conf Record:16-5
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:5-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-1
Current OOC Record:10-2
Expected OOC Record:10-2
Expected OOC RPI:54
Expected OOC SOS:232



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
26-718.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Houston.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10McNeese St. (297.0)SlndH81-53W100%0.0
11-17Drexel (242.0)CAAN80-84L0%0.0
11-18Liberty (211.0)BSthA66-68W100%0.0
11-19Wake Forest (160.0)ACCN73-78W100%0.0
11-25Incarnate Word (347.0)SlndH97-58W100%0.0
11-29New Orleans (239.0)SlndH75-66W100%0.0
12-2Arkansas (30.0)SECH91-65W100%0.0
12-6Fairfield (180.0)MAACH88-66W100%0.0
12-9Saint Louis (148.0)A10A58-77W100%0.0
12-13LSU (95.0)SECA80-77L0%0.0
12-17Prairie View A&M (247.0)SWACH92-72W100%0.0
12-20Providence (32.0)BEN59-70W100%0.0
12-28South Florida (278.0)AmerA60-79W100%0.0
12-30Temple (52.0)AmerH76-73W100%0.0
1-4Wichita St. (16.0)AmerA81-63L0%0.0
1-11Tulsa (89.0)AmerH104-71W100%0.0
1-14East Carolina (274.0)AmerA49-65W100%0.0
1-17Tulane (175.0)AmerA81-72L0%0.0
1-20Wichita St. (16.0)AmerH73-59W100%0.0
1-28South Florida (278.0)AmerH63-40W100%0.0
1-31Cincinnati (6.0)AmerA80-70L0%0.0
2-3UCF (84.0)AmerA65-69W100%0.0
2-8SMU (113.0)AmerH67-58W100%0.0
2-11Tulane (175.0)AmerH73-42W100%0.0
2-15Cincinnati (6.0)AmerH67-62W100%0.0
2-18Temple (52.0)AmerA59-80W100%0.0
2-22Memphis (106.0)AmerA91-85L0%0.0
2-25East Carolina (274.0)AmerH109-58W100%0.0
2-28SMU (113.0)AmerA56-69W100%0.0
3-4Connecticut (123.0)AmerH81-71W100%0.0
3-9UCF (84.0)AmerN56-84W100%0.0
3-10Wichita St. (16.0)AmerN74-77W100%0.0
3-11Cincinnati (6.0)AmerN56-55L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Houston's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Houston's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Houston.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
HoustonAmer26.3626.3682.0182.0116.8816.88
CincinnatiAmer5.305.3090.3290.324.274.27
Wichita St.Amer5.275.2782.7682.763.453.45
SMUAmer3.933.9354.8454.840.380.38
TempleAmer3.903.9056.6756.670.520.52
UCFAmer3.853.8563.3363.331.031.03
TulaneAmer3.763.7644.8344.83-0.39-0.39
South FloridaAmer3.743.7433.3333.33-1.25-1.25
East CarolinaAmer3.743.7435.7135.71-1.07-1.07
MemphisAmer2.492.4960.6160.610.530.53
ConnecticutAmer2.392.3945.1645.16-0.23-0.23
TulsaAmer2.342.3463.3363.330.620.62
New OrleansSlnd1.711.7144.4444.44-0.19-0.19
McNeese St.Slnd1.601.6033.3333.33-0.53-0.53
Incarnate WordSlnd1.601.6013.0413.04-1.18-1.18
ArkansasSEC1.591.5969.7069.700.630.63
LSUSEC1.581.5853.3353.330.110.11
DrexelCAA1.561.5635.4835.48-0.45-0.45
LibertyBSth1.541.5456.6756.670.210.21
Prairie View A&MSWAC1.541.5446.8846.88-0.10-0.10
Wake ForestACC1.541.5436.6736.67-0.41-0.41
ProvidenceBE1.541.5463.6463.640.420.42
Saint LouisA101.541.5451.6151.610.050.05
FairfieldMAAC1.521.5253.1253.120.090.09
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.240.2463.3363.330.060.06
Nicholls St.Slnd0.200.2060.7160.710.040.04
Northwestern St.Slnd0.190.198.008.00-0.16-0.16
LamarSlnd0.180.1853.5753.570.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.170.1730.7730.77-0.07-0.07
Houston BaptistSlnd0.170.1710.7110.71-0.14-0.14
FloridaSEC0.170.1762.5062.500.040.04
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.160.1640.0040.00-0.03-0.03
CampbellBSth0.150.1546.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.140.1480.0080.000.090.09
Alcorn St.SWAC0.140.1425.0025.00-0.07-0.07
SouthernSWAC0.140.1441.9441.94-0.02-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.140.1477.4277.420.080.08
QuinnipiacMAAC0.140.1436.3636.36-0.04-0.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.140.1415.6215.62-0.10-0.10
AlabamaSEC0.140.1455.8855.880.020.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.140.1451.7251.720.000.00
AuburnSEC0.140.1478.1278.120.080.08
MarquetteBE0.140.1459.3859.380.030.03
RichmondA100.140.1437.5037.50-0.03-0.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.140.1465.6265.620.040.04
VillanovaBE0.140.1488.2488.240.110.11
Savannah St.MEAC0.140.1443.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.140.1425.8125.81-0.07-0.07
XavierBE0.130.1384.8584.850.090.09
RadfordBSth0.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
CharlotteCUSA0.120.1217.8617.86-0.08-0.08
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.120.1230.0030.00-0.05-0.05
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.120.1244.4444.44-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.120.1257.5857.580.020.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.120.1237.9337.93-0.03-0.03
St. John'sBE0.120.1246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.120.1254.5554.550.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.120.1230.0030.00-0.05-0.05
La SalleA100.120.1240.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Oklahoma St.B120.120.1257.5857.580.020.02
MercerSC0.120.1253.3353.330.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.120.1232.3532.35-0.04-0.04
Texas A&MSEC0.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
MissouriSEC0.120.1261.2961.290.030.03
South CarolinaSEC0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
UMKCWAC0.100.1027.5927.59-0.05-0.05
SyracuseACC0.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.100.1068.7568.750.040.04
North CarolinaACC0.100.1071.4371.430.040.04
ElonCAA0.090.0940.0040.00-0.02-0.02
George WashingtonA100.090.0945.4545.45-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.090.0928.5728.57-0.04-0.04
William & MaryCAA0.090.0958.6258.620.020.02
TennesseeSEC0.090.0975.7675.760.050.05
OklahomaB120.090.0958.0658.060.020.02
RiderMAAC0.090.0970.9770.970.040.04
South AlabamaSB0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
FordhamA100.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
LIU BrooklynNEC0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
ClemsonACC0.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
HowardMEAC0.070.0725.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Colorado St.MWC0.070.0732.2632.26-0.03-0.03
VanderbiltSEC0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
BaylorB120.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
CaliforniaP120.070.0725.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
James MadisonCAA0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.070.0780.0080.000.040.04
ManhattanMAAC0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
PennIvy0.070.0774.1974.190.030.03
ArizonaP120.070.0779.4179.410.040.04
MonmouthMAAC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
MississippiSEC0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
SamfordSC0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Loyola MDPat0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
IonaMAAC0.070.0760.6160.610.010.01
MaristMAAC0.070.0719.3519.35-0.04-0.04
NiagaraMAAC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.070.0744.1244.12-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.070.0760.6160.610.010.01
SienaMAAC0.070.0725.0025.00-0.03-0.03
BuffaloMAC0.070.0775.7675.760.030.03
CreightonBE0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
UCLAP120.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Western CarolinaSC0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
WyomingMWC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.060.0680.6580.650.040.04
PittsburghACC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.056.676.67-0.04-0.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
RutgersB100.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Georgia TechACC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
High PointBSth0.050.0540.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
Miami OHMAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
WinthropBSth0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
DrakeMVC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
DavidsonA100.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
DaytonA100.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
DelawareCAA0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
FIUCUSA0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
HofstraCAA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
IndianaB100.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
NortheasternCAA0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0513.3313.33-0.03-0.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
TowsonCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
West VirginiaB120.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
WisconsinB100.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
KentuckySEC0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
LouisvilleACC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
OregonP120.050.0564.7164.710.010.01
MassachusettsA100.050.0539.3939.39-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Stony BrookAE0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.059.689.68-0.04-0.04
Boise St.MWC0.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
Cal PolyBW0.050.0524.1424.14-0.02-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0512.5012.50-0.03-0.03
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
TCUB120.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
UMBCAE0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
USCP120.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
DePaulBE0.040.0435.4835.48-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.040.0450.0050.000.000.00
MinnesotaB100.040.0446.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.040.0465.6265.620.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
UTEPCUSA0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
OaklandHorz0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
ArmyPat0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Coastal CarolinaSB0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Fort WayneSum0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
IllinoisB100.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Iowa St.B120.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.020.0216.6716.67-0.02-0.02
Miami FLACC0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
MichiganB100.020.0279.4179.410.010.01
North FloridaASun0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
VirginiaACC0.020.0293.9493.940.020.02
Boston UniversityPat0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
ColgatePat0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.020.0226.9226.92-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.020.0220.0020.00-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
LafayettePat0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.020.0287.8887.880.020.02
Murray St.OVC0.020.0282.7682.760.020.02
NJITASun0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
SeattleWAC0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
VCUA100.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
CanisiusMAAC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.020.0253.5753.570.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
New HampshireAE0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.020.0283.3383.330.020.02
OhioMAC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
PurdueB100.020.0282.3582.350.010.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.020.0270.0070.000.010.01
UNLVMWC0.020.0260.6160.610.000.00
UtahP120.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
WagnerNEC0.020.0270.0070.000.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
AlbanyAE0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
BelmontOVC0.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
BrownIvy0.020.0238.4638.46-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.020.029.689.68-0.02-0.02
BucknellPat0.020.0273.5373.530.010.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
Little RockSB0.020.0220.0020.00-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.020.0268.9768.970.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
WashingtonP120.020.0262.5062.500.010.01