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Through games of Mar 11, 2018.

Howard

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:339.0
Current RPI:339
Expected SOS:341
Current SOS:341
Current Record:8-23
Expected Record:8-23
Current Conf Record:7-10
Expected Conf Record:7-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-15
Current OOC Record:1-13
Expected OOC Record:1-13
Expected OOC RPI:335
Expected OOC SOS:234


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
8-23339.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Howard.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10George Washington (195.0)A10A84-75L0%0.0
11-12Indiana (125.0)B10A86-77L0%0.0
11-14Gonzaga (21.0)WCCA106-69L0%0.0
11-18Eastern Michigan (116.0)MACA76-66L0%0.0
11-20Arkansas St. (291.0)SBA92-78L0%0.0
11-22South Florida (278.0)AmerA75-52L0%0.0
11-27Liberty (211.0)BSthA75-55L0%0.0
12-4Penn (112.0)IvyH68-81L0%0.0
12-7Georgetown (169.0)BEA81-67L0%0.0
12-9American (336.0)PatA74-63L0%0.0
12-18Jacksonville St. (149.0)OVCA62-60L0%0.0
12-21UTEP (293.0)CUSAA69-56L0%0.0
12-22UNC Wilmington (245.0)CAAN80-75W100%0.0
12-29Hawaii (213.0)BWA84-59L0%0.0
1-3Florida A&M (332.0)MEACA84-76L0%0.0
1-6Bethune Cookman (288.0)MEACH87-92L0%0.0
1-13South Carolina St. (331.0)MEACA91-88L0%0.0
1-15Savannah St. (197.0)MEACA91-90L0%0.0
1-20North Carolina Central (279.0)MEACH84-78W100%0.0
1-22North Carolina A&T (238.0)MEACH90-88W100%0.0
1-27Maryland Eastern Shore (346.0)MEACA75-85W100%0.0
2-3Florida A&M (332.0)MEACH83-80W100%0.0
2-5Morgan St. (327.0)MEACA97-61L0%0.0
2-8Hampton (237.0)MEACH81-95L0%0.0
2-12Maryland Eastern Shore (346.0)MEACH84-56W100%0.0
2-17North Carolina A&T (238.0)MEACA83-69L0%0.0
2-19North Carolina Central (279.0)MEACA83-66L0%0.0
2-24Delaware St. (351.0)MEACH93-74W100%0.0
2-26Norfolk St. (266.0)MEACH74-79L0%0.0
3-1Coppin St. (343.0)MEACA71-78W100%0.0
3-6Florida A&M (332.0)MEACN78-88L0%0.0

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Howard's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Howard's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Howard.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.


Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
HowardMEAC26.1126.1128.1028.10-11.44-11.44
Florida A&MMEAC5.315.3120.0020.00-3.19-3.19
North Carolina A&TMEAC3.863.8656.6756.670.510.51
North Carolina CentralMEAC3.853.8551.7251.720.130.13
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC3.853.8517.8617.86-2.48-2.48
Morgan St.MEAC2.342.3434.4834.48-0.72-0.72
HamptonMEAC2.332.3350.0050.000.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC2.312.316.906.90-1.99-1.99
Bethune CookmanMEAC2.262.2651.7251.720.080.08
Norfolk St.MEAC2.242.2441.3841.38-0.39-0.39
Coppin St.MEAC2.222.2216.1316.13-1.50-1.50
Savannah St.MEAC2.212.2141.3841.38-0.38-0.38
South Carolina St.MEAC2.162.1624.1424.14-1.12-1.12
South FloridaAmer1.751.7529.0329.03-0.73-0.73
GeorgetownBE1.741.7448.2848.28-0.06-0.06
IndianaB101.691.6950.0050.000.000.00
Arkansas St.SB1.691.6927.5927.59-0.76-0.76
Eastern MichiganMAC1.691.6957.1457.140.240.24
AmericanPat1.671.6717.2417.24-1.09-1.09
LibertyBSth1.671.6753.3353.330.110.11
George WashingtonA101.671.6743.7543.75-0.21-0.21
Jacksonville St.OVC1.641.6461.2961.290.370.37
PennIvy1.641.6473.3373.330.770.77
GonzagaWCC1.611.6187.8887.881.221.22
HawaiiBW1.611.6151.8551.850.060.06
UNC WilmingtonCAA1.611.6131.0331.03-0.61-0.61
UTEPCUSA1.611.6131.0331.03-0.61-0.61
DuquesneA100.180.1850.0050.000.000.00
East CarolinaAmer0.180.1833.3333.33-0.06-0.06
Grand CanyonWAC0.180.1865.6265.620.060.06
Tennessee TechOVC0.160.1654.8454.840.020.02
Murray St.OVC0.150.1582.7682.760.100.10
Appalachian St.SB0.130.1341.9441.94-0.02-0.02
NavyPat0.130.1361.2961.290.030.03
CreightonBE0.130.1364.5264.520.040.04
JacksonvilleASun0.130.1337.9337.93-0.03-0.03
PresbyterianBSth0.130.1327.5927.59-0.06-0.06
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.130.1341.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.130.1358.0658.060.020.02
RadfordBSth0.130.1362.5062.500.030.03
George MasonA100.130.1348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.130.1341.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Miami FLACC0.130.1370.9770.970.050.05
Georgia TechACC0.130.1340.6240.62-0.02-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.130.1341.9441.94-0.02-0.02
FordhamA100.120.1229.0329.03-0.05-0.05
ToledoMAC0.110.1166.6766.670.040.04
North TexasCUSA0.110.1143.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.110.1178.1278.120.060.06
LafayettePat0.110.1130.0030.00-0.04-0.04
TowsonCAA0.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.110.1158.6258.620.020.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.110.1132.1432.14-0.04-0.04
Louisiana MonroeSB0.110.1146.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.110.1142.8642.86-0.02-0.02
CampbellBSth0.100.1046.4346.43-0.01-0.01
YaleIvy0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
DavidsonA100.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
XavierBE0.100.1084.8584.850.070.07
Virginia TechACC0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.100.1027.5927.59-0.05-0.05
IllinoisB100.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
VillanovaBE0.100.1088.2488.240.080.08
HarvardIvy0.100.1056.6756.670.010.01
North FloridaASun0.100.1036.6736.67-0.03-0.03
RichmondA100.100.1037.5037.50-0.03-0.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.100.1046.4346.43-0.01-0.01
MercerSC0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
TexasB120.100.1057.5857.580.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.090.0948.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.090.0941.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.080.0814.2914.29-0.06-0.06
TroySB0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Boston UniversityPat0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.080.0877.4277.420.040.04
DelawareCAA0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
DePaulBE0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
HofstraCAA0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
Little RockSB0.080.0820.0020.00-0.05-0.05
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.080.0880.6580.650.050.05
MarquetteBE0.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
NortheasternCAA0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
St. John'sBE0.080.0846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Georgia St.SB0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
MarylandB100.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
Seton HallBE0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
ElonCAA0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
West VirginiaB120.080.0870.5970.590.030.03
Wichita St.Amer0.080.0878.1278.120.040.04
Charleston SouthernBSth0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Fort WayneSum0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
Michigan St.B100.080.0887.8887.880.060.06
WinthropBSth0.080.0857.1457.140.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.080.0878.1278.120.040.04
Alabama St.SWAC0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
Gardner WebbBSth0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
CincinnatiAmer0.080.0888.2488.240.060.06
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
LamarSlnd0.080.0853.5753.570.010.01
UCFAmer0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
RutgersB100.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
RiderMAAC0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
HoustonAmer0.080.0878.7978.790.040.04
Ohio St.B100.080.0875.0075.000.040.04
Penn St.B100.080.0861.7661.760.020.02
TempleAmer0.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.080.0861.7661.760.020.02
San DiegoWCC0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
Green BayHorz0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.070.0780.0080.000.040.04
UNLVMWC0.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
BYUWCC0.070.0770.5970.590.030.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.060.0662.0762.070.010.01
UC DavisBW0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
UC RiversideBW0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.060.0670.0070.000.020.02
AkronMAC0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
SyracuseACC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
ArmyPat0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
BucknellPat0.050.0573.5373.530.030.03
ButlerBE0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
ColgatePat0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
DrakeMVC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
DrexelCAA0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
FurmanSC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Holy CrossPat0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
James MadisonCAA0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
LehighPat0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0584.3884.380.040.04
Loyola MDPat0.050.0526.6726.67-0.03-0.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0583.3383.330.040.04
ProvidenceBE0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
RiceCUSA0.050.0517.2417.24-0.04-0.04
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Washington St.P120.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
OhioMAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.050.0593.9493.940.050.05
WisconsinB100.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
North DakotaBSky0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0532.3532.35-0.02-0.02
FIUCUSA0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
UMBCAE0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
BrownIvy0.050.0538.4638.46-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0526.9226.92-0.02-0.02
CornellIvy0.050.0540.7440.74-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.050.0523.0823.08-0.03-0.03
High PointBSth0.050.0540.7440.74-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0532.0032.00-0.02-0.02
MinnesotaB100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
New HampshireAE0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
Incarnate WordSlnd0.050.0512.5012.50-0.04-0.04
WashingtonP120.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
DaytonA100.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
La SalleA100.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
BelmontOVC0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
ClemsonACC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
SMUAmer0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
The CitadelSC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
TulaneAmer0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
TulsaAmer0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Saint LouisA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
VCUA100.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
PacificWCC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.050.0516.1316.13-0.03-0.03
PortlandWCC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.02-0.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0584.8584.850.030.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
NevadaMWC0.030.0379.4179.410.020.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
UtahP120.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.030.0365.5265.520.010.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0344.4444.44-0.00-0.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.039.689.68-0.02-0.02
AuburnSEC0.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
BaylorB120.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Boise St.MWC0.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
LSUSEC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
MaineAE0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
PittsburghACC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
South AlabamaSB0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
Stony BrookAE0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Texas St.SB0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Texas TechB120.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
UABCUSA0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
UCLAP120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
ValparaisoMVC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
VMISC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
WagnerNEC0.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
Western IllinoisSum0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
DukeACC0.030.0378.7978.790.010.01
FairfieldMAAC0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
MichiganB100.030.0379.4179.410.020.02
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
MonmouthMAAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
PurdueB100.030.0382.3582.350.020.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
OregonP120.030.0364.7164.710.010.01
Oregon St.P120.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
SamfordSC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
MassachusettsA100.020.0239.3939.39-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
FloridaSEC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
IUPUIHorz0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.020.0244.1244.12-0.00-0.00
Utah St.MWC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00