Idaho

Conference:	BSky
Expected RPI:	133.0
Current RPI:	133
Expected SOS:	283
Current SOS:	283
Current Record:	20-9
Expected Record:	20-9
Current Conf Record:	14-5
Expected Conf Record:	14-5
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	7-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	12-4
Current OOC Record:	6-4
Expected OOC Record:	6-4
Expected OOC RPI:	140
Expected OOC SOS:	252

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
20-9	133.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Idaho.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Nevada (17.0)	MWC	A	88-64	L	0%
11-18	Sam Houston St. (206.0)	Slnd	H	63-54	W	100%
11-22	Santa Clara (264.0)	WCC	N	59-69	W	100%
11-24	Cal St. Bakersfield (220.0)	WAC	N	64-62	L	0%
11-25	Cal Poly (305.0)	BW	N	75-66	W	100%
12-3	Nicholls St. (145.0)	Slnd	A	68-79	W	100%
12-6	Washington St. (179.0)	P12	H	91-64	W	100%
12-9	Cal St. Bakersfield (220.0)	WAC	A	66-55	L	0%
12-18	Western Michigan (177.0)	MAC	A	52-82	W	100%
12-21	UC Irvine (119.0)	BW	N	59-67	L	0%
12-29	North Dakota (221.0)	BSky	A	57-74	W	100%
12-31	Northern Colorado (110.0)	BSky	A	81-77	L	0%
1-4	Sacramento St. (309.0)	BSky	H	69-68	W	100%
1-6	Portland St. (170.0)	BSky	H	72-73	L	0%
1-12	Eastern Washington (122.0)	BSky	A	51-58	W	100%
1-18	Southern Utah (252.0)	BSky	A	76-80	W	100%
1-20	Northern Arizona (310.0)	BSky	A	80-84	W	100%
1-25	Northern Colorado (110.0)	BSky	H	63-80	L	0%
1-27	North Dakota (221.0)	BSky	H	96-71	W	100%
2-1	Portland St. (170.0)	BSky	A	88-97	W	100%
2-3	Sacramento St. (309.0)	BSky	A	58-81	W	100%
2-9	Eastern Washington (122.0)	BSky	H	66-64	W	100%
2-15	Montana St. (283.0)	BSky	H	88-78	W	100%
2-17	Montana (76.0)	BSky	H	79-77	W	100%
2-22	Idaho St. (268.0)	BSky	A	86-83	L	0%
2-24	Weber St. (162.0)	BSky	A	62-68	W	100%
3-1	Northern Arizona (310.0)	BSky	H	66-52	W	100%
3-3	Southern Utah (252.0)	BSky	H	78-76	W	100%
3-8	Southern Utah (252.0)	BSky	N	78-92	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Idaho's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Idaho's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Idaho.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Idaho	BSky	26.41	26.41	70.92	70.92	11.05	11.05
Southern Utah	BSky	5.94	5.94	37.04	37.04	-1.54	-1.54
Eastern Washington	BSky	4.48	4.48	60.00	60.00	0.90	0.90
Northern Arizona	BSky	4.37	4.37	14.29	14.29	-3.12	-3.12
Portland St.	BSky	4.31	4.31	57.14	57.14	0.62	0.62
Northern Colorado	BSky	4.28	4.28	58.62	58.62	0.74	0.74
Sacramento St.	BSky	4.22	4.22	17.86	17.86	-2.71	-2.71
North Dakota	BSky	4.22	4.22	35.71	35.71	-1.21	-1.21
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	3.51	3.51	28.00	28.00	-1.54	-1.54
Montana	BSky	2.83	2.83	80.00	80.00	1.70	1.70
Idaho St.	BSky	2.75	2.75	40.74	40.74	-0.51	-0.51
Montana St.	BSky	2.70	2.70	37.93	37.93	-0.65	-0.65
Weber St.	BSky	2.70	2.70	62.96	62.96	0.70	0.70
Santa Clara	WCC	1.92	1.92	35.71	35.71	-0.55	-0.55
UC Irvine	BW	1.89	1.89	46.88	46.88	-0.12	-0.12
Cal Poly	BW	1.81	1.81	25.00	25.00	-0.90	-0.90
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	1.78	1.78	53.57	53.57	0.13	0.13
Nevada	MWC	1.78	1.78	78.79	78.79	1.02	1.02
Washington St.	P12	1.75	1.75	40.00	40.00	-0.35	-0.35
Nicholls St.	Slnd	1.75	1.75	62.96	62.96	0.45	0.45
Western Michigan	MAC	1.72	1.72	51.72	51.72	0.06	0.06
Utah Valley	WAC	0.34	0.34	65.52	65.52	0.11	0.11
UC Davis	BW	0.33	0.33	66.67	66.67	0.11	0.11
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.31	0.31	14.29	14.29	-0.22	-0.22
Central Michigan	MAC	0.30	0.30	53.33	53.33	0.02	0.02
Pepperdine	WCC	0.29	0.29	16.13	16.13	-0.20	-0.20
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.28	0.28	70.00	70.00	0.11	0.11
UNLV	MWC	0.27	0.27	60.61	60.61	0.06	0.06
Seattle	WAC	0.27	0.27	56.67	56.67	0.04	0.04
Stanford	P12	0.22	0.22	54.55	54.55	0.02	0.02
Hawaii	BW	0.22	0.22	53.57	53.57	0.02	0.02
Fresno St.	MWC	0.20	0.20	63.33	63.33	0.05	0.05
Long Beach St.	BW	0.20	0.20	41.94	41.94	-0.03	-0.03
San Jose St.	MWC	0.20	0.20	10.34	10.34	-0.16	-0.16
UC Riverside	BW	0.20	0.20	24.14	24.14	-0.10	-0.10
San Francisco	WCC	0.20	0.20	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.20	0.20	62.07	62.07	0.05	0.05
Boise St.	MWC	0.19	0.19	73.33	73.33	0.09	0.09
Utah St.	MWC	0.19	0.19	48.48	48.48	-0.01	-0.01
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.18	0.18	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
Portland	WCC	0.17	0.17	24.14	24.14	-0.09	-0.09
Saint Mary's	WCC	0.17	0.17	84.85	84.85	0.12	0.12
South Dakota	Sum	0.17	0.17	73.33	73.33	0.08	0.08
San Diego St.	MWC	0.16	0.16	67.74	67.74	0.06	0.06
Wyoming	MWC	0.16	0.16	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
Chicago St.	WAC	0.16	0.16	3.33	3.33	-0.15	-0.15
Lamar	Slnd	0.15	0.15	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.15	0.15	83.33	83.33	0.10	0.10
Arizona	P12	0.15	0.15	79.41	79.41	0.09	0.09
California	P12	0.14	0.14	25.81	25.81	-0.07	-0.07
Arizona St.	P12	0.14	0.14	64.52	64.52	0.04	0.04
Oregon St.	P12	0.14	0.14	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Oregon	P12	0.14	0.14	64.71	64.71	0.04	0.04
Washington	P12	0.14	0.14	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Georgia Southern	SB	0.13	0.13	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.13	0.13	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
UMKC	WAC	0.13	0.13	27.59	27.59	-0.06	-0.06
BYU	WCC	0.12	0.12	70.59	70.59	0.05	0.05
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.12	0.12	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.12	0.12	10.71	10.71	-0.10	-0.10
New Orleans	Slnd	0.12	0.12	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.12	0.12	63.33	63.33	0.03	0.03
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.12	0.12	80.00	80.00	0.07	0.07
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.12	0.12	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
UCLA	P12	0.12	0.12	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Gonzaga	WCC	0.12	0.12	88.24	88.24	0.09	0.09
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.12	0.12	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
San Diego	WCC	0.12	0.12	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.11	0.11	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
Kansas St.	B12	0.11	0.11	66.67	66.67	0.04	0.04
Colorado	P12	0.11	0.11	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Denver	Sum	0.11	0.11	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Utah	P12	0.11	0.11	63.33	63.33	0.03	0.03
Colorado St.	MWC	0.11	0.11	32.26	32.26	-0.04	-0.04
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.09	0.09	32.00	32.00	-0.03	-0.03
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.09	0.09	8.00	8.00	-0.08	-0.08
Abilene Christian	Slnd	0.09	0.09	44.44	44.44	-0.01	-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.09	0.09	30.77	30.77	-0.03	-0.03
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.09	0.09	20.00	20.00	-0.05	-0.05
Iowa	B10	0.09	0.09	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.09	0.09	87.88	87.88	0.07	0.07
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.09	0.09	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Pacific	WCC	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.08	0.08	80.00	80.00	0.05	0.05
Georgia St.	SB	0.08	0.08	68.75	68.75	0.03	0.03
Arkansas	SEC	0.06	0.06	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Delaware	CAA	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Incarnate Word	Slnd	0.06	0.06	12.50	12.50	-0.05	-0.05
College of Charleston	CAA	0.06	0.06	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
USC	P12	0.06	0.06	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Akron	MAC	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.06	0.06	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.06	0.06	75.76	75.76	0.03	0.03
Butler	BE	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Creighton	BE	0.06	0.06	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Duke	ACC	0.06	0.06	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.06	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Hampton	MEAC	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Jacksonville	ASun	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Miami OH	MAC	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Milwaukee	Horz	0.06	0.06	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Nebraska	B10	0.06	0.06	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.06	0.06	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
South Carolina	SEC	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
South Florida	Amer	0.06	0.06	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
Toledo	MAC	0.06	0.06	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Troy	SB	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Miss	CUSA	0.06	0.06	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Bradley	MVC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
Presbyterian	BSth	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Tulane	Amer	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
UMBC	AE	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Villanova	BE	0.03	0.03	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Baylor	B12	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Little Rock	SB	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
LSU	SEC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Mississippi	SEC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Princeton	Ivy	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
SMU	Amer	0.03	0.03	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
UT Arlington	SB	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Valparaiso	MVC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Appalachian St.	SB	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Binghamton	AE	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	32.35	32.35	-0.01	-0.01
Detroit	Horz	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
Kent St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Oakland	Horz	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Ohio	MAC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Saint Louis	A10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Tulsa	Amer	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
IUPUI	Horz	0.03	0.03	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.03	0.03	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.03	0.03	44.12	44.12	-0.00	-0.00
UTEP	CUSA	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Rider	MAAC	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Davidson	A10	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
New Mexico	MWC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Radford	BSth	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
TCU	B12	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01