live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Mar 11, 2018.


Illinois

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:181.0
Current RPI:181
Expected SOS:78
Current SOS:78
Current Record:13-18
Expected Record:13-18
Current Conf Record:4-15
Expected Conf Record:4-15
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC RPI:94
Expected OOC SOS:168



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-18181.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Illinois.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Southern (315.0)SWACH102-55W100%0.0
11-12Tennessee Martin (306.0)OVCH77-74W100%0.0
11-17DePaul (186.0)BEH82-73W100%0.0
11-19Marshall (87.0)CUSAH91-74W100%0.0
11-24North Carolina Central (279.0)MEACH86-73W100%0.0
11-28Wake Forest (160.0)ACCA80-73L0%0.0
12-1Northwestern (168.0)B10A72-68L0%0.0
12-3Maryland (74.0)B10H91-92L0%0.0
12-6Austin Peay (164.0)OVCH64-57W100%0.0
12-9UNLV (134.0)MWCN89-82L0%0.0
12-13Longwood (337.0)BSthH92-45W100%0.0
12-16New Mexico St. (35.0)WACN69-74L0%0.0
12-23Missouri (43.0)SECN64-70W100%0.0
12-30Grand Canyon (156.0)WACH62-58W100%0.0
1-3Minnesota (171.0)B10A77-67L0%0.0
1-6Michigan (12.0)B10A79-69L0%0.0
1-11Iowa (157.0)B10H97-104L0%0.0
1-15Nebraska (56.0)B10A64-63L0%0.0
1-19Wisconsin (114.0)B10A75-50L0%0.0
1-22Michigan St. (14.0)B10H74-87L0%0.0
1-24Indiana (125.0)B10H73-71W100%0.0
1-30Rutgers (203.0)B10H91-60W100%0.0
2-4Ohio St. (20.0)B10A75-67L0%0.0
2-8Wisconsin (114.0)B10H69-78L0%0.0
2-11Penn St. (77.0)B10H52-74L0%0.0
2-14Indiana (125.0)B10A78-68L0%0.0
2-18Nebraska (56.0)B10H72-66W100%0.0
2-20Michigan St. (14.0)B10A81-61L0%0.0
2-22Purdue (9.0)B10H86-93L0%0.0
2-25Rutgers (203.0)B10A62-75W100%0.0
2-28Iowa (157.0)B10N96-87L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Illinois's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Illinois's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Illinois.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
IllinoisB1026.0826.0834.8834.88-7.89-7.89
Michigan St.B103.923.9287.1087.102.912.91
RutgersB103.903.9045.1645.16-0.38-0.38
WisconsinB103.873.8741.9441.94-0.62-0.62
IowaB103.853.8538.7138.71-0.87-0.87
IndianaB103.843.8451.7251.720.130.13
NebraskaB103.823.8270.0070.001.531.53
MichiganB102.382.3878.7978.791.371.37
PurdueB102.332.3381.8281.821.481.48
Penn St.B102.312.3160.6160.610.490.49
MinnesotaB102.312.3145.1645.16-0.22-0.22
Ohio St.B102.282.2874.1974.191.101.10
NorthwesternB102.262.2643.3343.33-0.30-0.30
MarylandB102.252.2556.6756.670.300.30
Grand CanyonWAC1.751.7567.7467.740.620.62
Tennessee MartinOVC1.741.7428.5728.57-0.75-0.75
SouthernSWAC1.741.7443.3343.33-0.23-0.23
North Carolina CentralMEAC1.721.7253.3353.330.110.11
MarshallCUSA1.691.6971.8871.880.740.74
New Mexico St.WAC1.691.6982.7682.761.111.11
DePaulBE1.691.6936.6736.67-0.45-0.45
Austin PeayOVC1.671.6755.1755.170.170.17
LongwoodBSth1.641.6413.7913.79-1.19-1.19
MissouriSEC1.611.6163.3363.330.430.43
UNLVMWC1.611.6159.3859.380.300.30
Wake ForestACC1.611.6133.3333.33-0.54-0.54
Chicago St.WAC0.280.283.333.33-0.26-0.26
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.190.1934.4834.48-0.06-0.06
DukeACC0.180.1878.7978.790.100.10
Western KentuckyCUSA0.170.1769.7069.700.070.07
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.160.1641.3841.38-0.03-0.03
UMKCWAC0.160.1627.5927.59-0.07-0.07
Alabama A&MSWAC0.150.159.689.68-0.12-0.12
St. John'sBE0.150.1546.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.150.1557.5857.580.020.02
Seton HallBE0.150.1565.6265.620.050.05
MarquetteBE0.150.1559.3859.380.030.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.130.1354.8454.840.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.130.1330.0030.00-0.05-0.05
SeattleWAC0.130.1356.6756.670.020.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.130.1365.5265.520.040.04
New MexicoMWC0.130.1354.5554.550.010.01
CreightonBE0.130.1364.5264.520.040.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.130.136.676.67-0.11-0.11
ButlerBE0.130.1360.6160.610.030.03
LouisvilleACC0.130.1360.6160.610.030.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.130.1353.3353.330.010.01
XavierBE0.130.1384.8584.850.090.09
Long Beach St.BW0.130.1341.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.120.1215.6215.62-0.09-0.09
North CarolinaACC0.120.1271.4371.430.050.05
Stony BrookAE0.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Southern UtahBSky0.120.1236.6736.67-0.03-0.03
Murray St.OVC0.110.1182.7682.760.070.07
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.110.1131.0331.03-0.04-0.04
Morehead St.OVC0.110.1122.2222.22-0.06-0.06
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.110.1140.0040.00-0.02-0.02
RadfordBSth0.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.100.1025.8125.81-0.05-0.05
Jackson St.SWAC0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
SyracuseACC0.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.100.1045.4545.45-0.01-0.01
UCFAmer0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
VirginiaACC0.100.1093.9493.940.090.09
Florida A&MMEAC0.100.1024.2424.24-0.05-0.05
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.100.1012.5012.50-0.08-0.08
Alabama St.SWAC0.100.1025.8125.81-0.05-0.05
Savannah St.MEAC0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
UTSACUSA0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.100.1037.9337.93-0.02-0.02
North FloridaASun0.100.1036.6736.67-0.03-0.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.100.1032.3532.35-0.03-0.03
UABCUSA0.100.1058.0658.060.020.02
BelmontOVC0.080.0872.7372.730.040.04
Jacksonville St.OVC0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
High PointBSth0.080.0840.7440.74-0.01-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
Arkansas St.SB0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
LibertyBSth0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.080.0846.4346.43-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Miami FLACC0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
Georgia TechACC0.080.0840.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.080.0816.6716.67-0.05-0.05
Youngstown St.Horz0.080.0820.0020.00-0.05-0.05
LSUSEC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
CampbellBSth0.080.0846.4346.43-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.080.0867.6567.650.030.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.080.0861.7661.760.020.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.080.0844.1244.12-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.080.0855.8855.880.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
TennesseeSEC0.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
Texas A&MSEC0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
BaylorB120.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.070.0743.7543.75-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.070.0717.8617.86-0.05-0.05
Florida St.ACC0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
Green BayHorz0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Iowa St.B120.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Virginia TechACC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
North TexasCUSA0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.070.0773.3373.330.030.03
Oral RobertsSum0.070.0728.5728.57-0.03-0.03
Air ForceMWC0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
NevadaMWC0.070.0779.4179.410.040.04
Southern MissCUSA0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
WinthropBSth0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0580.0080.000.030.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.03-0.03
San DiegoWCC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
Fort WayneSum0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
MississippiSEC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
VillanovaBE0.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
ClemsonACC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0526.9226.92-0.02-0.02
OhioMAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
UtahP120.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
KansasB120.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
MaristMAAC0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
North DakotaBSky0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
George MasonA100.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
ValparaisoMVC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
William & MaryCAA0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
BryantNEC0.050.059.689.68-0.04-0.04
ColoradoP120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
FordhamA100.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
HartfordAE0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
NJITASun0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
RiceCUSA0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0510.3410.34-0.04-0.04
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0580.0080.000.030.03
TempleAmer0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
UMass LowellAE0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
YaleIvy0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
ArizonaP120.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
Arizona St.P120.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
CornellIvy0.030.0340.7440.74-0.00-0.00
DavidsonA100.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
DelawareCAA0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0384.8584.850.020.02
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
TroySB0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
UC IrvineBW0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
USCP120.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
VMISC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
ArmyPat0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
AuburnSEC0.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
BrownIvy0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
HoustonAmer0.030.0378.7978.790.010.01
La SalleA100.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
Loyola MDPat0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0332.0032.00-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
OklahomaB120.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
OregonP120.030.0364.7164.710.010.01
PortlandWCC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
Texas TechB120.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
TulaneAmer0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
UMBCAE0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
WagnerNEC0.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
West VirginiaB120.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
Appalachian St.SB0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
GonzagaWCC0.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
HarvardIvy0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Little RockSB0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
MassachusettsA100.030.0339.3939.39-0.01-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
NortheasternCAA0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
StanfordP120.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
The CitadelSC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
FIUCUSA0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
PacificWCC0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
WyomingMWC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
BinghamtonAE0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
DetroitHorz0.020.0220.0020.00-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
George WashingtonA100.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
IUPUIHorz0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
LipscombASun0.020.0268.9768.970.010.01
MontanaBSky0.020.0277.4277.420.010.01
RiderMAAC0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
TexasB120.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
VCUA100.020.0254.5554.550.000.00