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Through games of Mar 11, 2018.


Iowa

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:157.0
Current RPI:157
Expected SOS:70
Current SOS:70
Current Record:14-19
Expected Record:14-19
Current Conf Record:5-15
Expected Conf Record:5-15
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-7
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-1
Current OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC RPI:117
Expected OOC SOS:204



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-19157.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Iowa.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Chicago St. (335.0)WACH95-62W100%0.0
11-12Alabama St. (333.0)SWACH92-58W100%0.0
11-16Grambling St. (249.0)SWACH85-74W100%0.0
11-20Louisiana Lafayette (63.0)SBN71-80L0%0.0
11-21South Dakota St. (37.0)SumN80-72L0%0.0
11-22UAB (155.0)CUSAN85-95W100%0.0
11-28Virginia Tech (61.0)ACCA79-55L0%0.0
12-2Penn St. (77.0)B10H73-77L0%0.0
12-4Indiana (125.0)B10A77-64L0%0.0
12-7Iowa St. (144.0)B12A84-78L0%0.0
12-10Southern (315.0)SWACH91-60W100%0.0
12-16Drake (166.0)MVCN90-64W100%0.0
12-19Southern Utah (252.0)BSkyH92-64W100%0.0
12-22Colorado (82.0)P12N80-73W100%0.0
12-29Northern Illinois (241.0)MACH98-75W100%0.0
1-2Michigan (12.0)B10H68-75L0%0.0
1-4Ohio St. (20.0)B10H81-92L0%0.0
1-7Maryland (74.0)B10A91-73L0%0.0
1-11Illinois (181.0)B10A97-104W100%0.0
1-17Rutgers (203.0)B10A80-64L0%0.0
1-20Purdue (9.0)B10H64-87L0%0.0
1-23Wisconsin (114.0)B10H85-67W100%0.0
1-27Nebraska (56.0)B10A98-84L0%0.0
1-30Minnesota (171.0)B10H94-80W100%0.0
2-3Penn St. (77.0)B10A82-58L0%0.0
2-6Michigan St. (14.0)B10H93-96L0%0.0
2-10Ohio St. (20.0)B10A82-64L0%0.0
2-14Michigan (12.0)B10A74-59L0%0.0
2-17Indiana (125.0)B10H82-84L0%0.0
2-21Minnesota (171.0)B10A86-82L0%0.0
2-25Northwestern (168.0)B10H77-70W100%0.0
2-28Illinois (181.0)B10N96-87W100%0.0
3-1Michigan (12.0)B10N77-71L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Iowa's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Iowa's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Iowa.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
IowaB1026.1626.1638.3038.30-6.12-6.12
MichiganB105.135.1377.4277.422.822.82
Ohio St.B103.683.6873.3373.331.721.72
Penn St.B103.673.6759.3859.380.690.69
IndianaB103.643.6448.2848.28-0.13-0.13
MinnesotaB103.623.6246.6746.67-0.24-0.24
IllinoisB103.613.6144.8344.83-0.37-0.37
PurdueB102.302.3081.8281.821.471.47
RutgersB102.242.2440.6240.62-0.42-0.42
Michigan St.B102.242.2487.5087.501.681.68
NorthwesternB102.232.2346.6746.67-0.15-0.15
NebraskaB102.212.2167.7467.740.790.79
WisconsinB102.172.1746.8846.88-0.14-0.14
MarylandB102.162.1656.6756.670.290.29
SouthernSWAC1.661.6643.3343.33-0.22-0.22
Alabama St.SWAC1.641.6426.6726.67-0.77-0.77
DrakeMVC1.641.6450.0050.000.000.00
Chicago St.WAC1.631.633.453.45-1.52-1.52
Grambling St.SWAC1.611.6155.1755.170.170.17
South Dakota St.Sum1.591.5979.3179.310.930.93
ColoradoP121.561.5654.8454.840.150.15
Northern IllinoisMAC1.561.5637.9337.93-0.38-0.38
Iowa St.B121.541.5440.0040.00-0.31-0.31
Southern UtahBSky1.541.5437.9337.93-0.37-0.37
Louisiana LafayetteSB1.521.5280.0080.000.910.91
UABCUSA1.521.5260.0060.000.300.30
Virginia TechACC1.521.5264.5264.520.440.44
Alabama A&MSWAC0.290.299.689.68-0.23-0.23
Texas SouthernSWAC0.220.2244.1244.12-0.03-0.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.200.2033.3333.33-0.07-0.07
Alcorn St.SWAC0.170.1725.0025.00-0.09-0.09
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.170.1740.0040.00-0.03-0.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.170.1712.5012.50-0.13-0.13
North CarolinaACC0.160.1671.4371.430.070.07
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.150.1545.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.140.1457.5857.580.020.02
DukeACC0.140.1478.7978.790.080.08
Central MichiganMAC0.140.1453.3353.330.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.140.1428.5728.57-0.06-0.06
TexasB120.140.1457.5857.580.020.02
UCLAP120.140.1465.6265.620.040.04
South DakotaSum0.130.1373.3373.330.060.06
Grand CanyonWAC0.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.120.1283.3383.330.080.08
MarshallCUSA0.120.1269.7069.700.050.05
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.120.1232.1432.14-0.04-0.04
Western KentuckyCUSA0.120.1269.7069.700.050.05
LouisvilleACC0.120.1260.6160.610.030.03
Southern MissCUSA0.120.1240.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Western IllinoisSum0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
BuffaloMAC0.100.1075.7675.760.050.05
Eastern MichiganMAC0.100.1058.6258.620.020.02
Fort WayneSum0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.100.1024.1424.14-0.05-0.05
BradleyMVC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
Missouri St.MVC0.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.100.1079.4179.410.060.06
Arkansas St.SB0.100.1030.0030.00-0.04-0.04
Indiana St.MVC0.100.1037.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.100.1016.6716.67-0.06-0.06
Wake ForestACC0.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
BaylorB120.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
DePaulBE0.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Appalachian St.SB0.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
MarquetteBE0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
ValparaisoMVC0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.100.1071.8871.880.040.04
MontanaBSky0.100.1077.4277.420.050.05
Miami FLACC0.090.0970.9770.970.040.04
ButlerBE0.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
ArizonaP120.090.0979.4179.410.050.05
VCUA100.090.0954.5554.550.010.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.090.0937.9337.93-0.02-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.090.0937.9337.93-0.02-0.02
DetroitHorz0.090.0920.0020.00-0.05-0.05
North FloridaASun0.090.0936.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
IdahoBSky0.080.0868.9768.970.030.03
Idaho St.BSky0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
SeattleWAC0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
UMKCWAC0.080.0827.5927.59-0.03-0.03
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
DenverSum0.070.0746.4346.43-0.01-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.070.0746.4346.43-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
WyomingMWC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
MississippiSEC0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
OklahomaB120.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.070.0727.5927.59-0.03-0.03
Texas St.SB0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
TroySB0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Arizona St.P120.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
RadfordBSth0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
StanfordP120.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
The CitadelSC0.070.0727.5927.59-0.03-0.03
WashingtonP120.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
Stony BrookAE0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
VirginiaACC0.070.0793.9493.940.060.06
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
PittsburghACC0.070.0725.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.070.0715.6215.62-0.05-0.05
LSUSEC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.070.0724.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Ball St.MAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Montana St.BSky0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
ToledoMAC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0565.5265.520.020.02
Weber St.BSky0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
Boise St.MWC0.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
OhioMAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
UMBCAE0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Oregon St.P120.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
HowardMEAC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Kansas St.B120.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Little RockSB0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
LongwoodBSth0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0584.3884.380.030.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
RichmondA100.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
TCUB120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
West VirginiaB120.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Green BayHorz0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
OaklandHorz0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
CreightonBE0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
OregonP120.050.0564.7164.710.010.01
SyracuseACC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
UCFAmer0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
UTSACUSA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
HarvardIvy0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
MassachusettsA100.050.0539.3939.39-0.01-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
ProvidenceBE0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
USCP120.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
USC UpstateASun0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
UtahP120.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
Washington St.P120.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.050.0575.7675.760.020.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Florida St.ACC0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
XavierBE0.050.0584.8584.850.030.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0532.3532.35-0.02-0.02
BinghamtonAE0.040.0431.0331.03-0.02-0.02
CampbellBSth0.040.0446.4346.43-0.00-0.00
ColumbiaIvy0.040.0426.9226.92-0.02-0.02
George MasonA100.040.0448.4848.48-0.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.040.0445.4545.45-0.00-0.00
RiderMAAC0.040.0470.9770.970.020.02
Texas A&MSEC0.040.0462.5062.500.010.01
AkronMAC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
PennIvy0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.030.0316.1316.13-0.02-0.02
Portland St.BSky0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
San Jose St.MWC0.030.0310.3410.34-0.02-0.02
UC IrvineBW0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Wichita St.Amer0.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
AuburnSEC0.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
BrownIvy0.020.0238.4638.46-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.020.0273.5373.530.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.020.0217.8617.86-0.02-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.020.0288.2488.240.020.02
Coastal CarolinaSB0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.020.0224.2424.24-0.01-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
La SalleA100.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
LibertyBSth0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Loyola MDPat0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.020.0232.0032.00-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.020.0261.7661.760.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.020.0260.7160.710.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
RiceCUSA0.020.0217.2417.24-0.02-0.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
TulaneAmer0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
TulsaAmer0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
WinthropBSth0.020.0257.1457.140.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.020.026.676.67-0.02-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.020.0270.5970.590.010.01
MaristMAAC0.020.0219.3519.35-0.01-0.01
MercerSC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.020.0222.2222.22-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.020.0236.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
St. John'sBE0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.020.029.689.68-0.02-0.02
ConnecticutAmer0.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
FordhamA100.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
HartfordAE0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
NJITASun0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
UMass LowellAE0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
YaleIvy0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
FairfieldMAAC0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
IUPUIHorz0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
LipscombASun0.020.0268.9768.970.010.01