Jacksonville

Conference:	ASun
Expected RPI:	286.0
Current RPI:	286
Expected SOS:	308
Current SOS:	308
Current Record:	11-18
Expected Record:	11-18
Current Conf Record:	9-7
Expected Conf Record:	9-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	9-9
Current OOC Record:	2-11
Expected OOC Record:	2-11
Expected OOC RPI:	318
Expected OOC SOS:	227

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
11-18	286.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Jacksonville.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	UAB (155.0)	CUSA	A	96-67	L	0%
11-12	Georgetown (169.0)	BE	A	73-57	L	0%
11-18	North Carolina A&T (238.0)	MEAC	H	82-90	L	0%
11-24	Fairfield (180.0)	MAAC	N	84-92	W	100%
11-25	Wright St. (99.0)	Horz	A	68-44	L	0%
11-26	Gardner Webb (244.0)	BSth	N	106-99	W	100%
11-30	Bethune Cookman (288.0)	MEAC	H	66-77	L	0%
12-2	Eastern Kentucky (271.0)	OVC	A	70-65	L	0%
12-5	Milwaukee (231.0)	Horz	H	52-62	L	0%
12-16	South Carolina St. (331.0)	MEAC	A	83-74	L	0%
12-20	Northern Arizona (310.0)	BSky	H	72-83	L	0%
12-22	North Carolina St. (64.0)	ACC	A	116-64	L	0%
12-30	Michigan (12.0)	B10	A	76-51	L	0%
1-6	North Florida (218.0)	ASun	A	86-90	W	100%
1-11	Kennesaw St. (301.0)	ASun	H	65-58	W	100%
1-13	Lipscomb (101.0)	ASun	H	87-69	W	100%
1-18	USC Upstate (344.0)	ASun	A	91-85	L	0%
1-20	NJIT (269.0)	ASun	A	61-63	W	100%
1-24	Stetson (325.0)	ASun	H	76-69	W	100%
1-27	Florida Gulf Coast (172.0)	ASun	A	68-62	L	0%
1-29	Stetson (325.0)	ASun	A	67-68	W	100%
2-3	Florida Gulf Coast (172.0)	ASun	H	55-80	L	0%
2-8	Lipscomb (101.0)	ASun	A	82-59	L	0%
2-10	Kennesaw St. (301.0)	ASun	A	78-54	L	0%
2-15	NJIT (269.0)	ASun	H	69-71	L	0%
2-17	USC Upstate (344.0)	ASun	H	82-70	W	100%
2-22	North Florida (218.0)	ASun	H	86-81	W	100%
2-26	Kennesaw St. (301.0)	ASun	H	87-68	W	100%
3-1	Lipscomb (101.0)	ASun	N	77-62	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Jacksonville's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Jacksonville's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Jacksonville.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Jacksonville	ASun	26.50	26.50	37.98	37.98	-6.37	-6.37
Lipscomb	ASun	6.07	6.07	69.23	69.23	2.33	2.33
Kennesaw St.	ASun	5.98	5.98	28.00	28.00	-2.63	-2.63
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	4.50	4.50	62.07	62.07	1.09	1.09
North Florida	ASun	4.43	4.43	39.29	39.29	-0.95	-0.95
Stetson	ASun	4.40	4.40	30.77	30.77	-1.69	-1.69
USC Upstate	ASun	4.37	4.37	7.69	7.69	-3.70	-3.70
NJIT	ASun	4.34	4.34	42.31	42.31	-0.67	-0.67
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	1.93	1.93	51.72	51.72	0.07	0.07
Wright St.	Horz	1.86	1.86	70.97	70.97	0.78	0.78
Gardner Webb	BSth	1.84	1.84	39.29	39.29	-0.39	-0.39
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	1.81	1.81	54.84	54.84	0.18	0.18
South Carolina St.	MEAC	1.81	1.81	24.14	24.14	-0.93	-0.93
Milwaukee	Horz	1.80	1.80	46.67	46.67	-0.12	-0.12
Michigan	B10	1.78	1.78	78.79	78.79	1.03	1.03
Fairfield	MAAC	1.78	1.78	53.12	53.12	0.11	0.11
North Carolina St.	ACC	1.75	1.75	64.52	64.52	0.51	0.51
Georgetown	BE	1.75	1.75	48.28	48.28	-0.06	-0.06
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	1.72	1.72	28.57	28.57	-0.74	-0.74
Northern Arizona	BSky	1.72	1.72	10.34	10.34	-1.37	-1.37
UAB	CUSA	1.72	1.72	56.67	56.67	0.23	0.23
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.27	0.27	46.43	46.43	-0.02	-0.02
Belmont	OVC	0.27	0.27	72.73	72.73	0.12	0.12
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.24	0.24	54.84	54.84	0.02	0.02
Abilene Christian	Slnd	0.24	0.24	44.44	44.44	-0.03	-0.03
FIU	CUSA	0.23	0.23	37.93	37.93	-0.06	-0.06
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.21	0.21	42.86	42.86	-0.03	-0.03
Hampton	MEAC	0.20	0.20	51.61	51.61	0.01	0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.20	0.20	43.33	43.33	-0.03	-0.03
Green Bay	Horz	0.20	0.20	33.33	33.33	-0.07	-0.07
Purdue	B10	0.19	0.19	82.35	82.35	0.12	0.12
Campbell	BSth	0.18	0.18	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.17	0.17	15.62	15.62	-0.12	-0.12
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.17	0.17	24.24	24.24	-0.09	-0.09
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.17	0.17	16.67	16.67	-0.11	-0.11
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.17	0.17	76.67	76.67	0.09	0.09
Butler	BE	0.15	0.15	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
Morehead St.	OVC	0.15	0.15	22.22	22.22	-0.08	-0.08
Navy	Pat	0.14	0.14	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
Presbyterian	BSth	0.14	0.14	27.59	27.59	-0.06	-0.06
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.14	0.14	36.67	36.67	-0.04	-0.04
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.14	0.14	69.70	69.70	0.06	0.06
Howard	MEAC	0.14	0.14	25.81	25.81	-0.07	-0.07
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0.14	0.14	32.14	32.14	-0.05	-0.05
Iona	MAAC	0.14	0.14	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
Marist	MAAC	0.14	0.14	19.35	19.35	-0.09	-0.09
Northern Kentucky	Horz	0.14	0.14	68.97	68.97	0.05	0.05
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.14	0.14	6.67	6.67	-0.12	-0.12
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.14	0.14	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.14	0.14	32.35	32.35	-0.05	-0.05
Detroit	Horz	0.13	0.13	20.00	20.00	-0.08	-0.08
Washington	P12	0.12	0.12	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Yale	Ivy	0.12	0.12	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.12	0.12	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
UNC Asheville	BSth	0.12	0.12	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
UCF	Amer	0.12	0.12	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Florida St.	ACC	0.12	0.12	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
Creighton	BE	0.12	0.12	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
Seton Hall	BE	0.12	0.12	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
South Florida	Amer	0.12	0.12	31.25	31.25	-0.04	-0.04
Winthrop	BSth	0.12	0.12	57.14	57.14	0.02	0.02
Bowling Green	MAC	0.12	0.12	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Denver	Sum	0.12	0.12	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.12	0.12	75.76	75.76	0.06	0.06
Texas	B12	0.11	0.11	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Miami FL	ACC	0.11	0.11	70.97	70.97	0.05	0.05
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.11	0.11	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
Nebraska	B10	0.11	0.11	68.75	68.75	0.04	0.04
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.11	0.11	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
IUPUI	Horz	0.11	0.11	32.14	32.14	-0.04	-0.04
Oakland	Horz	0.11	0.11	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.11	0.11	20.00	20.00	-0.07	-0.07
Michigan St.	B10	0.11	0.11	87.88	87.88	0.08	0.08
Siena	MAAC	0.11	0.11	25.00	25.00	-0.05	-0.05
Iowa	B10	0.10	0.10	42.42	42.42	-0.02	-0.02
Georgia Southern	SB	0.09	0.09	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Hofstra	CAA	0.09	0.09	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Mercer	SC	0.09	0.09	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Samford	SC	0.09	0.09	26.67	26.67	-0.04	-0.04
Seattle	WAC	0.09	0.09	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.09	0.09	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.09	0.09	30.00	30.00	-0.04	-0.04
Kansas St.	B12	0.09	0.09	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Buffalo	MAC	0.09	0.09	75.76	75.76	0.05	0.05
Alabama	SEC	0.09	0.09	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.09	0.09	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
UMKC	WAC	0.09	0.09	27.59	27.59	-0.04	-0.04
LIU Brooklyn	NEC	0.09	0.09	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Wagner	NEC	0.09	0.09	70.00	70.00	0.04	0.04
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.09	0.09	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Florida	SEC	0.09	0.09	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Minnesota	B10	0.09	0.09	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Rutgers	B10	0.09	0.09	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Radford	BSth	0.09	0.09	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.09	0.09	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
St. John's	BE	0.09	0.09	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.09	0.09	69.70	69.70	0.03	0.03
Montana St.	BSky	0.09	0.09	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
North Texas	CUSA	0.09	0.09	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
LSU	SEC	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
VCU	A10	0.08	0.08	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Boston College	ACC	0.08	0.08	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.08	0.08	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.08	0.08	9.68	9.68	-0.07	-0.07
Wisconsin	B10	0.08	0.08	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Miss	CUSA	0.08	0.08	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Clemson	ACC	0.08	0.08	71.88	71.88	0.04	0.04
Maryland	B10	0.08	0.08	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.08	0.08	71.43	71.43	0.03	0.03
Niagara	MAAC	0.08	0.08	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Quinnipiac	MAAC	0.08	0.08	36.36	36.36	-0.02	-0.02
Brown	Ivy	0.06	0.06	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Colgate	Pat	0.06	0.06	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Drexel	CAA	0.06	0.06	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Fort Wayne	Sum	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Georgia	SEC	0.06	0.06	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Lafayette	Pat	0.06	0.06	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.06	0.06	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
South Alabama	SB	0.06	0.06	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
UMass Lowell	AE	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
West Virginia	B12	0.06	0.06	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
High Point	BSth	0.06	0.06	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Liberty	BSth	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Longwood	BSth	0.06	0.06	13.33	13.33	-0.04	-0.04
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.06	0.06	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
Auburn	SEC	0.06	0.06	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Rice	CUSA	0.06	0.06	17.24	17.24	-0.04	-0.04
Ball St.	MAC	0.06	0.06	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
DePaul	BE	0.06	0.06	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.06	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Idaho	BSky	0.06	0.06	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
Idaho St.	BSky	0.06	0.06	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Marquette	BE	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Missouri	SEC	0.06	0.06	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Montana	BSky	0.06	0.06	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.06	0.06	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Providence	BE	0.06	0.06	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Southern Utah	BSky	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Villanova	BE	0.06	0.06	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
Weber St.	BSky	0.06	0.06	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Wofford	SC	0.06	0.06	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Xavier	BE	0.06	0.06	84.85	84.85	0.04	0.04
Murray St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	82.76	82.76	0.04	0.04
Richmond	A10	0.06	0.06	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Arizona	P12	0.06	0.06	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Syracuse	ACC	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.06	0.06	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.06	0.06	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.06	0.06	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Rhode Island	A10	0.06	0.06	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
UT Arlington	SB	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Wichita St.	Amer	0.06	0.06	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Loyola Chicago	MVC	0.05	0.05	84.38	84.38	0.04	0.04
UCLA	P12	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Notre Dame	ACC	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Wake Forest	ACC	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Penn St.	B10	0.05	0.05	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Manhattan	MAAC	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Monmouth	MAAC	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Rider	MAAC	0.05	0.05	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Northwestern	B10	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Ohio St.	B10	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Austin Peay	OVC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Arizona St.	P12	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Boston University	Pat	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Cal Poly	BW	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
College of Charleston	CAA	0.03	0.03	77.42	77.42	0.02	0.02
Furman	SC	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Maine	AE	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
North Dakota	BSky	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Portland St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
San Diego	WCC	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Santa Clara	WCC	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
South Dakota	Sum	0.03	0.03	73.33	73.33	0.01	0.01
UC Irvine	BW	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Washington St.	P12	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Charlotte	CUSA	0.03	0.03	17.86	17.86	-0.02	-0.02
Chattanooga	SC	0.03	0.03	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Elon	CAA	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Memphis	Amer	0.03	0.03	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	12.50	12.50	-0.02	-0.02
New Orleans	Slnd	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Troy	SB	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
UTEP	CUSA	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
UTSA	CUSA	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Western Illinois	Sum	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Bryant	NEC	0.03	0.03	9.68	9.68	-0.02	-0.02
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Duke	ACC	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
East Carolina	Amer	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Lamar	Slnd	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Louisville	ACC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Miami OH	MAC	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Missouri St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Robert Morris	NEC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
The Citadel	SC	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Toledo	MAC	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
UNC Greensboro	SC	0.03	0.03	77.42	77.42	0.01	0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.03	0.03	93.94	93.94	0.02	0.02
VMI	SC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Canisius	MAAC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Houston	Amer	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
Loyola MD	Pat	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
New Hampshire	AE	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Penn	Ivy	0.03	0.03	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
Saint Peter's	MAAC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Central Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Illinois	B10	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Indiana	B10	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
UC Riverside	BW	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01