LSU

Conference:	SEC
Expected RPI:	95.0
Current RPI:	95
Expected SOS:	49
Current SOS:	49
Current Record:	17-14
Expected Record:	17-14
Current Conf Record:	8-11
Expected Conf Record:	8-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	5-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	6-0
Current OOC Record:	9-3
Expected OOC Record:	9-3
Expected OOC RPI:	85
Expected OOC SOS:	131

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
17-14	95.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for LSU.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Alcorn St. (348.0)	SWAC	H	99-59	W	100%
11-16	Samford (296.0)	SC	H	105-86	W	100%
11-20	Michigan (12.0)	B10	N	77-75	W	100%
11-21	Notre Dame (70.0)	ACC	N	53-92	L	0%
11-22	Marquette (58.0)	BE	N	84-94	L	0%
11-29	Tennessee Martin (306.0)	OVC	H	84-60	W	100%
12-10	UNC Wilmington (245.0)	CAA	H	97-84	W	100%
12-13	Houston (18.0)	Amer	H	80-77	W	100%
12-16	Stephen F. Austin (104.0)	Slnd	H	82-83	L	0%
12-19	Sam Houston St. (206.0)	Slnd	H	80-58	W	100%
12-22	North Florida (218.0)	ASun	H	104-52	W	100%
12-28	Memphis (106.0)	Amer	A	61-71	W	100%
1-3	Kentucky (10.0)	SEC	H	71-74	L	0%
1-6	Texas A&M (29.0)	SEC	A	68-69	W	100%
1-10	Arkansas (30.0)	SEC	A	54-75	W	100%
1-13	Alabama (42.0)	SEC	H	66-74	L	0%
1-16	Georgia (79.0)	SEC	H	60-61	L	0%
1-20	Vanderbilt (132.0)	SEC	A	77-71	L	0%
1-23	Texas A&M (29.0)	SEC	H	77-65	W	100%
1-27	Auburn (15.0)	SEC	A	95-70	L	0%
1-31	Tennessee (8.0)	SEC	A	84-61	L	0%
2-3	Arkansas (30.0)	SEC	H	94-86	W	100%
2-7	Florida (46.0)	SEC	A	73-64	L	0%
2-10	Mississippi (141.0)	SEC	H	82-66	W	100%
2-13	Alabama (42.0)	SEC	A	80-65	L	0%
2-17	Missouri (43.0)	SEC	H	64-63	W	100%
2-20	Vanderbilt (132.0)	SEC	H	88-78	W	100%
2-24	Georgia (79.0)	SEC	A	93-82	L	0%
2-28	South Carolina (90.0)	SEC	A	83-74	L	0%
3-3	Mississippi St. (73.0)	SEC	H	78-57	W	100%
3-8	Mississippi St. (73.0)	SEC	N	80-77	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

LSU's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

LSU's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against LSU.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
LSU	SEC	26.08	26.08	50.39	50.39	0.20	0.20
Mississippi St.	SEC	3.93	3.93	66.67	66.67	1.31	1.31
Alabama	SEC	3.92	3.92	53.12	53.12	0.25	0.25
Arkansas	SEC	3.90	3.90	71.88	71.88	1.71	1.71
Georgia	SEC	3.87	3.87	51.61	51.61	0.12	0.12
Vanderbilt	SEC	3.85	3.85	36.67	36.67	-1.03	-1.03
Texas A&M	SEC	3.84	3.84	66.67	66.67	1.28	1.28
Missouri	SEC	2.36	2.36	63.33	63.33	0.63	0.63
Kentucky	SEC	2.36	2.36	69.70	69.70	0.93	0.93
Tennessee	SEC	2.35	2.35	75.00	75.00	1.18	1.18
Florida	SEC	2.33	2.33	61.29	61.29	0.53	0.53
South Carolina	SEC	2.30	2.30	48.39	48.39	-0.07	-0.07
Auburn	SEC	2.30	2.30	77.42	77.42	1.26	1.26
Mississippi	SEC	2.28	2.28	38.71	38.71	-0.52	-0.52
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	1.74	1.74	79.31	79.31	1.02	1.02
North Florida	ASun	1.74	1.74	37.93	37.93	-0.42	-0.42
Memphis	Amer	1.71	1.71	63.64	63.64	0.47	0.47
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	1.69	1.69	53.57	53.57	0.12	0.12
Houston	Amer	1.68	1.68	81.25	81.25	1.05	1.05
Samford	SC	1.68	1.68	27.59	27.59	-0.75	-0.75
Alcorn St.	SWAC	1.66	1.66	25.93	25.93	-0.80	-0.80
Tennessee Martin	OVC	1.66	1.66	28.57	28.57	-0.71	-0.71
Marquette	BE	1.66	1.66	58.06	58.06	0.27	0.27
Michigan	B10	1.64	1.64	81.82	81.82	1.04	1.04
Notre Dame	ACC	1.61	1.61	56.25	56.25	0.20	0.20
UNC Wilmington	CAA	1.61	1.61	31.03	31.03	-0.61	-0.61
Cincinnati	Amer	0.22	0.22	88.24	88.24	0.17	0.17
Temple	Amer	0.17	0.17	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
UCF	Amer	0.17	0.17	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.17	0.17	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.16	0.16	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.16	0.16	63.33	63.33	0.04	0.04
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.16	0.16	30.77	30.77	-0.06	-0.06
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.16	0.16	9.68	9.68	-0.13	-0.13
Mercer	SC	0.15	0.15	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Wichita St.	Amer	0.15	0.15	78.12	78.12	0.08	0.08
Connecticut	Amer	0.14	0.14	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
North Carolina	ACC	0.14	0.14	71.43	71.43	0.06	0.06
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.13	0.13	10.71	10.71	-0.10	-0.10
Incarnate Word	Slnd	0.13	0.13	12.50	12.50	-0.10	-0.10
New Orleans	Slnd	0.13	0.13	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
Lipscomb	ASun	0.13	0.13	68.97	68.97	0.05	0.05
Tulane	Amer	0.13	0.13	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
East Carolina	Amer	0.12	0.12	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.12	0.12	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Purdue	B10	0.12	0.12	82.35	82.35	0.08	0.08
South Florida	Amer	0.12	0.12	31.25	31.25	-0.05	-0.05
Minnesota	B10	0.12	0.12	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Abilene Christian	Slnd	0.11	0.11	44.44	44.44	-0.01	-0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.11	0.11	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Chattanooga	SC	0.11	0.11	25.81	25.81	-0.05	-0.05
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.11	0.11	25.81	25.81	-0.05	-0.05
Austin Peay	OVC	0.11	0.11	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Hofstra	CAA	0.11	0.11	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Wofford	SC	0.11	0.11	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.11	0.11	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Furman	SC	0.11	0.11	67.74	67.74	0.04	0.04
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.10	0.10	24.24	24.24	-0.05	-0.05
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.10	0.10	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
USC Upstate	ASun	0.10	0.10	10.71	10.71	-0.08	-0.08
Little Rock	SB	0.10	0.10	20.00	20.00	-0.06	-0.06
Clemson	ACC	0.10	0.10	71.88	71.88	0.04	0.04
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.10	0.10	76.67	76.67	0.05	0.05
Seton Hall	BE	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
USC	P12	0.10	0.10	67.65	67.65	0.04	0.04
West Virginia	B12	0.10	0.10	70.59	70.59	0.04	0.04
DePaul	BE	0.10	0.10	35.48	35.48	-0.03	-0.03
Villanova	BE	0.10	0.10	88.24	88.24	0.08	0.08
Kansas St.	B12	0.10	0.10	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Michigan St.	B10	0.10	0.10	87.88	87.88	0.07	0.07
Arizona	P12	0.10	0.10	79.41	79.41	0.06	0.06
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.10	0.10	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Texas	B12	0.10	0.10	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Tulsa	Amer	0.10	0.10	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Oklahoma	B12	0.09	0.09	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.09	0.09	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Southern	SWAC	0.09	0.09	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.08	0.08	12.50	12.50	-0.06	-0.06
Baylor	B12	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
College of Charleston	CAA	0.08	0.08	77.42	77.42	0.04	0.04
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.08	0.08	60.71	60.71	0.02	0.02
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.08	0.08	8.00	8.00	-0.07	-0.07
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.08	0.08	34.48	34.48	-0.03	-0.03
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.08	0.08	31.03	31.03	-0.03	-0.03
Murray St.	OVC	0.08	0.08	82.76	82.76	0.05	0.05
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.08	0.08	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.08	0.08	28.57	28.57	-0.03	-0.03
NJIT	ASun	0.08	0.08	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Northeastern	CAA	0.08	0.08	68.75	68.75	0.03	0.03
UNC Greensboro	SC	0.08	0.08	77.42	77.42	0.04	0.04
Iowa St.	B12	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Creighton	BE	0.08	0.08	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.08	0.08	32.00	32.00	-0.03	-0.03
James Madison	CAA	0.08	0.08	29.03	29.03	-0.03	-0.03
Loyola Chicago	MVC	0.08	0.08	84.38	84.38	0.05	0.05
Belmont	OVC	0.08	0.08	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
Delaware	CAA	0.08	0.08	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Drexel	CAA	0.08	0.08	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Illinois	B10	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
East Tennessee St.	SC	0.08	0.08	71.88	71.88	0.03	0.03
Jacksonville	ASun	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Green Bay	Horz	0.08	0.08	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
St. John's	BE	0.08	0.08	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
VCU	A10	0.08	0.08	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Dayton	A10	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Providence	BE	0.07	0.07	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
Virginia	ACC	0.07	0.07	93.94	93.94	0.07	0.07
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.07	0.07	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Kansas	B12	0.07	0.07	79.41	79.41	0.04	0.04
Northern Kentucky	Horz	0.07	0.07	68.97	68.97	0.03	0.03
Penn St.	B10	0.07	0.07	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
Southern Miss	CUSA	0.07	0.07	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Duke	ACC	0.07	0.07	78.79	78.79	0.04	0.04
Massachusetts	A10	0.07	0.07	39.39	39.39	-0.02	-0.02
Winthrop	BSth	0.07	0.07	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Wake Forest	ACC	0.07	0.07	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Bryant	NEC	0.07	0.07	9.68	9.68	-0.06	-0.06
SMU	Amer	0.07	0.07	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Louisville	ACC	0.07	0.07	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Iowa	B10	0.07	0.07	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Troy	SB	0.07	0.07	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.06	0.06	44.12	44.12	-0.01	-0.01
Morehead St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	22.22	22.22	-0.03	-0.03
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.06	0.06	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Elon	CAA	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Stetson	ASun	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
The Citadel	SC	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
Towson	CAA	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Valparaiso	MVC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
VMI	SC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Western Carolina	SC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
William & Mary	CAA	0.05	0.05	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
FIU	CUSA	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Rice	CUSA	0.05	0.05	17.24	17.24	-0.03	-0.03
Central Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Utah Valley	WAC	0.05	0.05	65.52	65.52	0.02	0.02
Ball St.	MAC	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.05	0.05	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Utah	P12	0.05	0.05	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Arizona St.	P12	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.05	0.05	75.76	75.76	0.03	0.03
Butler	BE	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Illinois St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Pepperdine	WCC	0.05	0.05	16.13	16.13	-0.03	-0.03
Radford	BSth	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
TCU	B12	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.05	0.05	70.00	70.00	0.02	0.02
UNC Asheville	BSth	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Xavier	BE	0.05	0.05	84.85	84.85	0.04	0.04
Chicago St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	3.33	3.33	-0.05	-0.05
Florida St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Vermont	AE	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Wisconsin	B10	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Boston College	ACC	0.05	0.05	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.05	0.05	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.02	-0.02
Saint Mary's	WCC	0.05	0.05	84.85	84.85	0.03	0.03
San Diego St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Indiana	B10	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Bucknell	Pat	0.05	0.05	73.53	73.53	0.02	0.02
BYU	WCC	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Colorado St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Fresno St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Maryland	B10	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.05	0.05	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Northwestern	B10	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Ohio St.	B10	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.02	0.02
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Rhode Island	A10	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
UCLA	P12	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
UT Arlington	SB	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Yale	Ivy	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Akron	MAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Arkansas St.	SB	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Idaho	BSky	0.03	0.03	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Santa Clara	WCC	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
UMKC	WAC	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Campbell	BSth	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Davidson	A10	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	58.62	58.62	0.00	0.00
Howard	MEAC	0.03	0.03	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Longwood	BSth	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Long Beach St.	BW	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Miami OH	MAC	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Wagner	NEC	0.03	0.03	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
American	Pat	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
Bradley	MVC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Coastal Carolina	SB	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Cornell	Ivy	0.03	0.03	40.74	40.74	-0.00	-0.00
George Mason	A10	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia St.	SB	0.03	0.03	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
Gonzaga	WCC	0.03	0.03	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Indiana St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
New Hampshire	AE	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.03	0.03	80.00	80.00	0.02	0.02
Stanford	P12	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Texas Tech	B12	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
UTEP	CUSA	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Wyoming	MWC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.02	0.02	23.08	23.08	-0.01	-0.01
Fairfield	MAAC	0.02	0.02	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
High Point	BSth	0.02	0.02	40.74	40.74	-0.00	-0.00
Liberty	BSth	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Presbyterian	BSth	0.02	0.02	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Saint Louis	A10	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.02	0.02	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Syracuse	ACC	0.02	0.02	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Albany	AE	0.02	0.02	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Detroit	Horz	0.02	0.02	20.00	20.00	-0.01	-0.01
Fort Wayne	Sum	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Harvard	Ivy	0.02	0.02	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Loyola MD	Pat	0.02	0.02	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Monmouth	MAAC	0.02	0.02	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Rutgers	B10	0.02	0.02	42.42	42.42	-0.00	-0.00
Siena	MAAC	0.02	0.02	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
UC Riverside	BW	0.02	0.02	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01