Lamar

Conference:	Slnd
Expected RPI:	230.0
Current RPI:	230
Expected SOS:	325
Current SOS:	325
Current Record:	15-13
Expected Record:	15-13
Current Conf Record:	11-8
Expected Conf Record:	11-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	12-9
Current OOC Record:	4-5
Expected OOC Record:	4-5
Expected OOC RPI:	182
Expected OOC SOS:	211

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
15-13	230.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Lamar.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Tulsa (89.0)	Amer	A	67-74	W	100%
11-14	Coastal Carolina (246.0)	SB	H	66-60	W	100%
11-19	Cal St. Bakersfield (220.0)	WAC	H	73-85	L	0%
11-27	UTEP (293.0)	CUSA	A	52-66	W	100%
12-2	Coastal Carolina (246.0)	SB	A	67-69	W	100%
12-17	Southern Illinois (100.0)	MVC	A	71-61	L	0%
12-19	Duquesne (259.0)	A10	A	65-64	L	0%
12-22	UC Davis (102.0)	BW	N	77-68	L	0%
12-23	North Carolina A&T (238.0)	MEAC	N	70-74	L	0%
12-28	Houston Baptist (345.0)	Slnd	H	86-68	W	100%
12-30	Texas A&M Corpus Chris (326.0)	Slnd	A	72-77	W	100%
1-3	New Orleans (239.0)	Slnd	A	72-62	L	0%
1-6	Central Arkansas (223.0)	Slnd	H	91-100	L	0%
1-10	Southeastern Louisiana (150.0)	Slnd	H	58-63	L	0%
1-17	Incarnate Word (347.0)	Slnd	A	69-90	W	100%
1-20	Sam Houston St. (206.0)	Slnd	H	84-77	W	100%
1-24	Nicholls St. (145.0)	Slnd	H	74-79	L	0%
1-27	McNeese St. (297.0)	Slnd	H	86-80	W	100%
1-31	Abilene Christian (260.0)	Slnd	A	74-69	L	0%
2-3	Stephen F. Austin (104.0)	Slnd	H	76-54	W	100%
2-7	Northwestern St. (342.0)	Slnd	A	75-79	W	100%
2-10	Sam Houston St. (206.0)	Slnd	A	71-69	L	0%
2-14	Incarnate Word (347.0)	Slnd	H	85-62	W	100%
2-17	Texas A&M Corpus Chris (326.0)	Slnd	H	79-76	W	100%
2-21	Houston Baptist (345.0)	Slnd	A	73-87	W	100%
2-24	Stephen F. Austin (104.0)	Slnd	A	66-71	W	100%
3-3	McNeese St. (297.0)	Slnd	A	69-60	L	0%
3-7	Central Arkansas (223.0)	Slnd	N	57-67	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Lamar's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Lamar's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Lamar.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Lamar	Slnd	26.40	26.40	55.80	55.80	3.06	3.06
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	4.51	4.51	85.71	85.71	3.22	3.22
Central Arkansas	Slnd	4.47	4.47	46.67	46.67	-0.30	-0.30
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	4.47	4.47	51.85	51.85	0.17	0.17
Houston Baptist	Slnd	4.43	4.43	11.54	11.54	-3.41	-3.41
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	4.42	4.42	33.33	33.33	-1.47	-1.47
Incarnate Word	Slnd	4.40	4.40	13.64	13.64	-3.20	-3.20
McNeese St.	Slnd	4.31	4.31	30.43	30.43	-1.69	-1.69
Coastal Carolina	SB	3.57	3.57	40.74	40.74	-0.66	-0.66
New Orleans	Slnd	2.81	2.81	40.74	40.74	-0.52	-0.52
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	2.75	2.75	62.07	62.07	0.66	0.66
Abilene Christian	Slnd	2.72	2.72	42.31	42.31	-0.42	-0.42
Nicholls St.	Slnd	2.72	2.72	59.26	59.26	0.50	0.50
Northwestern St.	Slnd	2.65	2.65	8.33	8.33	-2.21	-2.21
UTEP	CUSA	1.86	1.86	34.48	34.48	-0.58	-0.58
Duquesne	A10	1.84	1.84	48.39	48.39	-0.06	-0.06
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	1.84	1.84	54.84	54.84	0.18	0.18
Southern Illinois	MVC	1.84	1.84	58.06	58.06	0.30	0.30
Tulsa	Amer	1.84	1.84	63.33	63.33	0.49	0.49
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	1.79	1.79	30.77	30.77	-0.69	-0.69
UC Davis	BW	1.79	1.79	65.52	65.52	0.55	0.55
Texas St.	SB	0.35	0.35	41.94	41.94	-0.06	-0.06
UTSA	CUSA	0.31	0.31	53.33	53.33	0.02	0.02
Little Rock	SB	0.30	0.30	20.00	20.00	-0.18	-0.18
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.24	0.24	43.33	43.33	-0.03	-0.03
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.23	0.23	80.65	80.65	0.14	0.14
Houston	Amer	0.21	0.21	78.79	78.79	0.12	0.12
Utah Valley	WAC	0.19	0.19	65.52	65.52	0.06	0.06
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.19	0.19	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Baylor	B12	0.19	0.19	54.84	54.84	0.02	0.02
Idaho	BSky	0.16	0.16	68.97	68.97	0.06	0.06
Arkansas St.	SB	0.16	0.16	30.00	30.00	-0.06	-0.06
South Alabama	SB	0.16	0.16	40.00	40.00	-0.03	-0.03
Rice	CUSA	0.15	0.15	17.24	17.24	-0.10	-0.10
Appalachian St.	SB	0.15	0.15	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.15	0.15	33.33	33.33	-0.05	-0.05
Illinois St.	MVC	0.14	0.14	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
UMKC	WAC	0.14	0.14	27.59	27.59	-0.06	-0.06
North Texas	CUSA	0.13	0.13	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
Mississippi	SEC	0.13	0.13	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Georgia Southern	SB	0.13	0.13	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.13	0.13	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.13	0.13	83.33	83.33	0.08	0.08
College of Charleston	CAA	0.12	0.12	77.42	77.42	0.07	0.07
Troy	SB	0.12	0.12	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
UT Arlington	SB	0.12	0.12	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
LSU	SEC	0.12	0.12	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Tulane	Amer	0.12	0.12	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.12	0.12	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Memphis	Amer	0.12	0.12	61.76	61.76	0.03	0.03
Hampton	MEAC	0.12	0.12	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
San Francisco	WCC	0.11	0.11	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.11	0.11	6.67	6.67	-0.10	-0.10
Morehead St.	OVC	0.11	0.11	22.22	22.22	-0.06	-0.06
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.10	0.10	25.00	25.00	-0.05	-0.05
Seattle	WAC	0.10	0.10	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
SMU	Amer	0.10	0.10	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Central Michigan	MAC	0.09	0.09	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.09	0.09	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.09	0.09	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
South Carolina	SEC	0.09	0.09	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.09	0.09	62.07	62.07	0.02	0.02
UC Riverside	BW	0.09	0.09	24.14	24.14	-0.05	-0.05
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.09	0.09	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
UCLA	P12	0.09	0.09	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.09	0.09	24.24	24.24	-0.05	-0.05
Howard	MEAC	0.09	0.09	25.81	25.81	-0.04	-0.04
Valparaiso	MVC	0.09	0.09	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
East Carolina	Amer	0.09	0.09	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.08	0.08	16.67	16.67	-0.06	-0.06
Missouri St.	MVC	0.08	0.08	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Saint Louis	A10	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	26.67	26.67	-0.04	-0.04
Florida	SEC	0.07	0.07	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Gonzaga	WCC	0.07	0.07	88.24	88.24	0.06	0.06
San Diego St.	MWC	0.07	0.07	67.74	67.74	0.03	0.03
Georgia	SEC	0.07	0.07	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Chicago St.	WAC	0.07	0.07	3.33	3.33	-0.06	-0.06
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Lipscomb	ASun	0.07	0.07	68.97	68.97	0.03	0.03
Belmont	OVC	0.06	0.06	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
Detroit	Horz	0.06	0.06	20.00	20.00	-0.04	-0.04
Michigan St.	B10	0.06	0.06	87.88	87.88	0.05	0.05
Providence	BE	0.06	0.06	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
Saint Peter's	MAAC	0.06	0.06	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.06	0.06	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
UAB	CUSA	0.06	0.06	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.06	0.06	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Georgia St.	SB	0.06	0.06	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Iona	MAAC	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Santa Clara	WCC	0.06	0.06	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Vermont	AE	0.06	0.06	78.79	78.79	0.04	0.04
Wake Forest	ACC	0.06	0.06	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Wofford	SC	0.06	0.06	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Presbyterian	BSth	0.06	0.06	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
Cal Poly	BW	0.06	0.06	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.06	0.06	14.29	14.29	-0.04	-0.04
Hawaii	BW	0.06	0.06	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Long Beach St.	BW	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Longwood	BSth	0.06	0.06	13.33	13.33	-0.04	-0.04
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Missouri	SEC	0.06	0.06	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.06	0.06	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Pacific	WCC	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Miss	CUSA	0.06	0.06	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
UC Irvine	BW	0.06	0.06	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.06	0.06	70.00	70.00	0.02	0.02
Washington St.	P12	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
UCF	Amer	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	12.50	12.50	-0.04	-0.04
Nevada	MWC	0.06	0.06	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Radford	BSth	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Connecticut	Amer	0.06	0.06	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
South Florida	Amer	0.06	0.06	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
Temple	Amer	0.06	0.06	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Wichita St.	Amer	0.06	0.06	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Bradley	MVC	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
California	P12	0.06	0.06	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Dayton	A10	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Drake	MVC	0.06	0.06	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Evansville	MVC	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Fordham	A10	0.06	0.06	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
George Washington	A10	0.06	0.06	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Indiana St.	MVC	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola Chicago	MVC	0.06	0.06	84.38	84.38	0.04	0.04
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Oregon	P12	0.06	0.06	64.71	64.71	0.02	0.02
Richmond	A10	0.06	0.06	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.06	0.06	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Colorado St.	MWC	0.04	0.04	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Oklahoma	B12	0.04	0.04	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Texas	B12	0.04	0.04	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Utah	P12	0.04	0.04	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Arizona	P12	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.02	0.02
Arkansas	SEC	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Campbell	BSth	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Delaware	CAA	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Fresno St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Texas Tech	B12	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
USC Upstate	ASun	0.03	0.03	10.71	10.71	-0.03	-0.03
Oakland	Horz	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
St. John's	BE	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
UMBC	AE	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Villanova	BE	0.03	0.03	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Boise St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	73.33	73.33	0.01	0.01
Charlotte	CUSA	0.03	0.03	17.86	17.86	-0.02	-0.02
FIU	CUSA	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0.03	0.03	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Kent St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Marshall	CUSA	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.03	0.03	76.67	76.67	0.02	0.02
New Mexico	MWC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Notre Dame	ACC	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
Samford	SC	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Washington	P12	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Cincinnati	Amer	0.03	0.03	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Iowa St.	B12	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Kansas St.	B12	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Manhattan	MAAC	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Western Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Clemson	ACC	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	15.62	15.62	-0.02	-0.02
Cornell	Ivy	0.03	0.03	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Davidson	A10	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
George Mason	A10	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Georgetown	BE	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Jacksonville	ASun	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
La Salle	A10	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Louisville	ACC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.03	0.03	39.39	39.39	-0.01	-0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Murray St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	82.76	82.76	0.02	0.02
Rhode Island	A10	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Robert Morris	NEC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
San Jose St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	10.34	10.34	-0.02	-0.02
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Stetson	ASun	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
The Citadel	SC	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
VCU	A10	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
VMI	SC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Winthrop	BSth	0.03	0.03	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00