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Through games of Mar 11, 2018.


Louisville

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:38.0
Current RPI:38
Expected SOS:15
Current SOS:15
Current Record:20-13
Expected Record:20-13
Current Conf Record:10-10
Expected Conf Record:10-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-8
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:7-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC RPI:43
Expected OOC SOS:77



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-1338.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Louisville.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12George Mason (201.0)A10H72-61W100%0.0
11-17Nebraska Omaha (284.0)SumH87-78W100%0.0
11-21Southern Illinois (100.0)MVCH84-42W100%0.0
11-24St. Francis PA (178.0)NECH84-72W100%0.0
11-28Purdue (9.0)B10A66-57L0%0.0
12-3Seton Hall (31.0)BEH77-79L0%0.0
12-6Siena (299.0)MAACH86-60W100%0.0
12-9Indiana (125.0)B10H71-62W100%0.0
12-11Bryant (341.0)NECH102-59W100%0.0
12-16Memphis (106.0)AmerN72-81W100%0.0
12-20Albany (142.0)AEH70-68W100%0.0
12-23Grand Canyon (156.0)WACH74-56W100%0.0
12-29Kentucky (10.0)SECA90-61L0%0.0
1-2Pittsburgh (217.0)ACCH77-51W100%0.0
1-6Clemson (11.0)ACCA74-69L0%0.0
1-10Florida St. (54.0)ACCA69-73W100%0.0
1-13Virginia Tech (61.0)ACCH94-86W100%0.0
1-16Notre Dame (70.0)ACCA78-82W100%0.0
1-21Boston College (96.0)ACCH77-69W100%0.0
1-24Miami FL (28.0)ACCA78-75L0%0.0
1-27Wake Forest (160.0)ACCH96-77W100%0.0
1-31Virginia (1.0)ACCA74-64L0%0.0
2-3Florida St. (54.0)ACCH76-80L0%0.0
2-5Syracuse (45.0)ACCH73-78L0%0.0
2-8Georgia Tech (161.0)ACCH77-54W100%0.0
2-11Pittsburgh (217.0)ACCA60-94W100%0.0
2-17North Carolina (4.0)ACCH76-93L0%0.0
2-21Duke (7.0)ACCA82-56L0%0.0
2-24Virginia Tech (61.0)ACCA68-75W100%0.0
3-1Virginia (1.0)ACCH66-67L0%0.0
3-3North Carolina St. (64.0)ACCA76-69L0%0.0
3-7Florida St. (54.0)ACCN74-82W100%0.0
3-8Virginia (1.0)ACCN75-58L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Louisville's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Louisville's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Louisville.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
LouisvilleACC26.1626.1656.7456.743.533.53
VirginiaACC5.095.0993.3393.334.414.41
Florida St.ACC5.015.0167.8667.861.791.79
Virginia TechACC3.613.6170.0070.001.451.45
PittsburghACC3.553.5526.6726.67-1.65-1.65
DukeACC2.202.2078.1278.121.241.24
North CarolinaACC2.202.2070.5970.590.900.90
Notre DameACC2.202.2059.3859.380.410.41
ClemsonACC2.192.1970.9770.970.920.92
Boston CollegeACC2.182.1857.5857.580.330.33
Miami FLACC2.172.1770.0070.000.870.87
SyracuseACC2.172.1759.3859.380.410.41
Georgia TechACC2.122.1241.9441.94-0.34-0.34
North Carolina St.ACC2.102.1064.5264.520.610.61
Wake ForestACC2.082.0836.6736.67-0.55-0.55
BryantNEC1.661.6610.0010.00-1.33-1.33
IndianaB101.611.6153.3353.330.110.11
MemphisAmer1.591.5963.6463.640.430.43
St. Francis PANEC1.591.5959.2659.260.290.29
SienaMAAC1.591.5925.8125.81-0.77-0.77
AlbanyAE1.591.5970.0070.000.630.63
KentuckySEC1.561.5669.7069.700.620.62
PurdueB101.541.5481.8281.820.980.98
Seton HallBE1.541.5464.5264.520.450.45
George MasonA101.521.5250.0050.000.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC1.521.5267.7467.740.540.54
Nebraska OmahaSum1.521.5225.0025.00-0.76-0.76
Southern IllinoisMVC1.521.5261.2961.290.340.34
RutgersB100.240.2442.4242.42-0.04-0.04
MonmouthMAAC0.190.1935.4835.48-0.05-0.05
TennesseeSEC0.180.1875.7675.760.090.09
Robert MorrisNEC0.170.1748.4848.48-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.170.1753.3353.330.010.01
LehighPat0.170.1751.7251.720.010.01
FloridaSEC0.160.1662.5062.500.040.04
Penn St.B100.160.1661.7661.760.040.04
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.150.1537.9337.93-0.04-0.04
George WashingtonA100.140.1445.4545.45-0.01-0.01
TulaneAmer0.140.1445.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.140.1487.8887.880.110.11
West VirginiaB120.140.1470.5970.590.060.06
VCUA100.140.1454.5554.550.010.01
WisconsinB100.140.1445.4545.45-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.140.1437.5037.50-0.03-0.03
WagnerNEC0.130.1370.0070.000.050.05
St. Francis NYNEC0.130.1337.9337.93-0.03-0.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.130.1343.7543.75-0.02-0.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.130.1330.0030.00-0.05-0.05
DrakeMVC0.120.1248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.120.1257.5857.580.020.02
The CitadelSC0.120.1227.5927.59-0.05-0.05
IllinoisB100.120.1241.9441.94-0.02-0.02
IowaB100.120.1242.4242.42-0.02-0.02
MinnesotaB100.120.1246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.120.1277.4277.420.060.06
Ohio St.B100.120.1275.0075.000.060.06
Utah ValleyWAC0.120.1265.5265.520.040.04
Rhode IslandA100.120.1278.1278.120.060.06
DavidsonA100.110.1165.6265.620.040.04
MichiganB100.110.1179.4179.410.070.07
LIU BrooklynNEC0.100.1051.5251.520.000.00
South DakotaSum0.100.1073.3373.330.050.05
Stony BrookAE0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Fort WayneSum0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.100.1042.8642.86-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.100.1029.0329.03-0.04-0.04
NavyPat0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
HartfordAE0.100.1058.0658.060.020.02
Loyola MDPat0.100.1026.6726.67-0.04-0.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.100.1083.3383.330.060.06
QuinnipiacMAAC0.100.1036.3636.36-0.03-0.03
VermontAE0.090.0978.7978.790.050.05
IonaMAAC0.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
UMKCWAC0.090.0927.5927.59-0.04-0.04
DartmouthIvy0.090.0923.0823.08-0.05-0.05
DuquesneA100.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
Saint LouisA100.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
St. John'sBE0.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
GeorgiaSEC0.090.0954.5554.550.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.090.0937.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.090.093.333.33-0.09-0.09
MarylandB100.090.0958.0658.060.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.090.0931.2531.25-0.03-0.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.070.0770.0070.000.030.03
WashingtonP120.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
Colorado St.MWC0.070.0732.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.070.0728.5728.57-0.03-0.03
New HampshireAE0.070.0727.5927.59-0.03-0.03
Southern MissCUSA0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
YaleIvy0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
BinghamtonAE0.070.0731.0331.03-0.03-0.03
CanisiusMAAC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.070.0724.2424.24-0.04-0.04
Indiana St.MVC0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
KansasB120.070.0779.4179.410.040.04
MaineAE0.070.0713.3313.33-0.05-0.05
Illinois St.MVC0.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
PresbyterianBSth0.070.0727.5927.59-0.03-0.03
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.070.0743.7543.75-0.01-0.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
La SalleA100.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
ColgatePat0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
FairfieldMAAC0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
MarquetteBE0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
MississippiSEC0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.070.0761.7661.760.020.02
ValparaisoMVC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
NebraskaB100.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
Austin PeayOVC0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
MassachusettsA100.070.0739.3939.39-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.070.0743.7543.75-0.01-0.01
LSUSEC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.070.0755.8855.880.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0788.2488.240.050.05
TulsaAmer0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
DenverSum0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Montana St.BSky0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0580.0080.000.030.03
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
UMass LowellAE0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
UMBCAE0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Holy CrossPat0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
BradleyMVC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
CreightonBE0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.056.676.67-0.04-0.04
DetroitHorz0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
High PointBSth0.050.0540.7440.74-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0584.3884.380.030.03
MaristMAAC0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0516.6716.67-0.03-0.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0532.0032.00-0.02-0.02
MontanaBSky0.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
RadfordBSth0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
SeattleWAC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
TowsonCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
VillanovaBE0.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
XavierBE0.050.0584.8584.850.030.03
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0526.9226.92-0.02-0.02
HoustonAmer0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0544.1244.12-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
Little RockSB0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
SamfordSC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
TempleAmer0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Texas TechB120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
UCLAP120.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
BucknellPat0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
AuburnSEC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Wichita St.Amer0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
East CarolinaAmer0.040.0433.3333.33-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.040.0461.2961.290.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.040.0462.5062.500.010.01
UCFAmer0.040.0459.3859.380.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.040.0467.6567.650.020.02
AmericanPat0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0384.8584.850.020.02
San FranciscoWCC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
OklahomaB120.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
TCUB120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
ArmyPat0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
BrownIvy0.020.0238.4638.46-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.020.0217.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Coastal CarolinaSB0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.020.0253.5753.570.000.00
HowardMEAC0.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
LibertyBSth0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.020.0276.6776.670.010.01
North FloridaASun0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.020.0220.0020.00-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
Boise St.MWC0.020.0273.3373.330.010.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.020.0277.4277.420.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.020.0215.6215.62-0.02-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.020.0253.5753.570.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.020.0280.6580.650.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.020.0212.5012.50-0.02-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.020.0282.7682.760.020.02
NevadaMWC0.020.0279.4179.410.010.01
NJITASun0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
RiderMAAC0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
San Jose St.MWC0.020.0210.3410.34-0.02-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
UC RiversideBW0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
VMISC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
WinthropBSth0.020.0257.1457.140.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.020.0214.2914.29-0.02-0.02
CornellIvy0.020.0240.7440.74-0.00-0.00
DaytonA100.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
DelawareCAA0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
ElonCAA0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
Fresno St.MWC0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
FurmanSC0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
LafayettePat0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
OaklandHorz0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
Portland St.BSky0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
TexasB120.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
ToledoMAC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
HarvardIvy0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
IUPUIHorz0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
LipscombASun0.020.0268.9768.970.010.01
MercerSC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.020.0268.9768.970.010.01
SMUAmer0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
TroySB0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
UABCUSA0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
PortlandWCC0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.020.0254.5554.550.000.00