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Through games of Mar 11, 2018.


Maryland

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:74.0
Current RPI:74
Expected SOS:43
Current SOS:43
Current Record:18-13
Expected Record:18-13
Current Conf Record:8-11
Expected Conf Record:8-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-8
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-0
Current OOC Record:10-2
Expected OOC Record:10-2
Expected OOC RPI:33
Expected OOC SOS:141



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-1374.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Maryland.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Stony Brook (208.0)AEN61-76W100%0.0
11-12Maryland Eastern Shore (346.0)MEACH96-43W100%0.0
11-15Butler (41.0)BEH79-65W100%0.0
11-18Bucknell (80.0)PatH80-78W100%0.0
11-20Jackson St. (330.0)SWACH76-45W100%0.0
11-24St. Bonaventure (24.0)A10N61-63L0%0.0
11-25New Mexico (118.0)MWCN80-65W100%0.0
11-27Syracuse (45.0)ACCA72-70L0%0.0
12-1Purdue (9.0)B10H75-80L0%0.0
12-3Illinois (181.0)B10A91-92W100%0.0
12-7Ohio (204.0)MACH87-62W100%0.0
12-9Gardner Webb (244.0)BSthH82-60W100%0.0
12-21Fairleigh Dickinson (254.0)NECH75-50W100%0.0
12-29UMBC (111.0)AEH66-45W100%0.0
1-2Penn St. (77.0)B10H75-69W100%0.0
1-4Michigan St. (14.0)B10A91-61L0%0.0
1-7Iowa (157.0)B10H91-73W100%0.0
1-11Ohio St. (20.0)B10A91-69L0%0.0
1-15Michigan (12.0)B10A68-67L0%0.0
1-18Minnesota (171.0)B10H77-66W100%0.0
1-22Indiana (125.0)B10A71-68L0%0.0
1-28Michigan St. (14.0)B10H68-74L0%0.0
1-31Purdue (9.0)B10A75-67L0%0.0
2-4Wisconsin (114.0)B10H68-63W100%0.0
2-7Penn St. (77.0)B10A74-70L0%0.0
2-10Northwestern (168.0)B10H73-57W100%0.0
2-13Nebraska (56.0)B10A70-66L0%0.0
2-17Rutgers (203.0)B10H61-51W100%0.0
2-19Northwestern (168.0)B10A64-71W100%0.0
2-24Michigan (12.0)B10H61-85L0%0.0
3-1Wisconsin (114.0)B10N54-59L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Maryland's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Maryland's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Maryland.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MarylandB1026.0726.0754.5554.552.372.37
MichiganB103.943.9478.1278.122.222.22
PurdueB103.943.9481.2581.252.462.46
Penn St.B103.933.9362.5062.500.980.98
WisconsinB103.893.8945.1645.16-0.38-0.38
Michigan St.B103.893.8987.1087.102.892.89
NorthwesternB103.863.8648.2848.28-0.13-0.13
RutgersB102.382.3843.7543.75-0.30-0.30
IowaB102.302.3043.7543.75-0.29-0.29
Ohio St.B102.302.3074.1974.191.111.11
NebraskaB102.282.2867.7467.740.810.81
MinnesotaB102.262.2648.3948.39-0.07-0.07
IllinoisB102.252.2543.3343.33-0.30-0.30
IndianaB102.232.2350.0050.000.000.00
Stony BrookAE1.761.7640.0040.00-0.35-0.35
St. BonaventureA101.691.6977.4277.420.930.93
ButlerBE1.691.6962.5062.500.420.42
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC1.681.6839.2939.29-0.36-0.36
Jackson St.SWAC1.661.6634.4834.48-0.52-0.52
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC1.661.6617.2417.24-1.09-1.09
UMBCAE1.661.6670.0070.000.670.67
BucknellPat1.641.6475.7675.760.840.84
SyracuseACC1.641.6459.3859.380.310.31
Gardner WebbBSth1.611.6139.2939.29-0.35-0.35
New MexicoMWC1.611.6156.2556.250.200.20
OhioMAC1.611.6144.8344.83-0.17-0.17
VermontAE0.210.2178.7978.790.120.12
Chicago St.WAC0.200.203.333.33-0.19-0.19
North CarolinaACC0.190.1971.4371.430.080.08
UMass LowellAE0.180.1837.9337.93-0.04-0.04
DePaulBE0.180.1835.4835.48-0.05-0.05
HartfordAE0.150.1558.0658.060.020.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.150.159.689.68-0.12-0.12
CreightonBE0.150.1564.5264.520.040.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.150.1515.6215.62-0.10-0.10
Seton HallBE0.150.1565.6265.620.050.05
BinghamtonAE0.150.1531.0331.03-0.06-0.06
MarquetteBE0.150.1559.3859.380.030.03
SouthernSWAC0.130.1341.9441.94-0.02-0.02
AlbanyAE0.130.1367.7467.740.050.05
Central MichiganMAC0.130.1353.3353.330.010.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.120.1269.7069.700.050.05
Loyola MDPat0.120.1226.6726.67-0.06-0.06
ColgatePat0.120.1258.0658.060.020.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.110.1151.5251.520.000.00
St. Francis PANEC0.110.1157.1457.140.020.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.110.1130.0030.00-0.04-0.04
Miami OHMAC0.110.1145.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.110.1145.4545.45-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.110.1166.6766.670.040.04
MaineAE0.100.1013.3313.33-0.08-0.08
New HampshireAE0.100.1027.5927.59-0.05-0.05
Ball St.MAC0.100.1058.0658.060.020.02
BuffaloMAC0.100.1075.7675.760.050.05
Texas SouthernSWAC0.100.1044.1244.12-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.100.1046.4346.43-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.100.1040.6240.62-0.02-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
ProvidenceBE0.100.1061.7661.760.020.02
ValparaisoMVC0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.100.1043.7543.75-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.100.1078.7978.790.060.06
Notre DameACC0.100.1057.5857.580.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
ArizonaP120.100.1079.4179.410.060.06
LouisvilleACC0.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
VirginiaACC0.100.1093.9493.940.090.09
XavierBE0.100.1084.8584.850.070.07
VCUA100.100.1054.5554.550.010.01
North FloridaASun0.100.1036.6736.67-0.03-0.03
PittsburghACC0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
UCLAP120.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
WinthropBSth0.080.0857.1457.140.010.01
LibertyBSth0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.080.0813.3313.33-0.06-0.06
RadfordBSth0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
BryantNEC0.080.089.689.68-0.06-0.06
Central ConnecticutNEC0.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
Norfolk St.MEAC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
IonaMAAC0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
Grambling St.SWAC0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.080.086.676.67-0.07-0.07
BrownIvy0.080.0838.4638.46-0.02-0.02
Miami FLACC0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.080.0858.6258.620.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
DuquesneA100.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
ClemsonACC0.080.0871.8871.880.030.03
DrakeMVC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.080.0840.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Virginia TechACC0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
DavidsonA100.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
FairfieldMAAC0.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
Holy CrossPat0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.070.0783.3383.330.050.05
UNLVMWC0.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
Saint LouisA100.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
AmericanPat0.070.0720.0020.00-0.04-0.04
NortheasternCAA0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
RichmondA100.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.070.0755.8855.880.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
YaleIvy0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
ArmyPat0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.070.0726.9226.92-0.03-0.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.070.0732.3532.35-0.03-0.03
OaklandHorz0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
Southern UtahBSky0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Utah St.MWC0.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
VillanovaBE0.070.0788.2488.240.060.06
WyomingMWC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
George MasonA100.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.070.0745.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.070.0728.5728.57-0.03-0.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
TexasB120.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
Boston UniversityPat0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
High PointBSth0.060.0640.7440.74-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.060.0627.5927.59-0.02-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
WagnerNEC0.060.0670.0070.000.020.02
HamptonMEAC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
AkronMAC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0512.5012.50-0.04-0.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
UCFAmer0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
USC UpstateASun0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
NJITASun0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
OklahomaB120.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Texas TechB120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Iowa St.B120.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
MassachusettsA100.050.0539.3939.39-0.01-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
FordhamA100.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
KansasB120.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
TCUB120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
ArkansasSEC0.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
SienaMAAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Air ForceMWC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
BaylorB120.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Boise St.MWC0.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
ColoradoP120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
Green BayHorz0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0510.3410.34-0.04-0.04
TempleAmer0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
DetroitHorz0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
IUPUIHorz0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
LafayettePat0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
LehighPat0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
LipscombASun0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
LSUSEC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
MontanaBSky0.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
NavyPat0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
RiderMAAC0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.050.0575.7675.760.020.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.050.0524.1424.14-0.02-0.02
AuburnSEC0.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
FloridaSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0324.2424.24-0.01-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MercerSC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Fort WayneSum0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
HofstraCAA0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
MissouriSEC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
SMUAmer0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
South FloridaAmer0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
Appalachian St.SB0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
HarvardIvy0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
MaristMAAC0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
North DakotaBSky0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
StanfordP120.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
StetsonASun0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
CornellIvy0.020.0240.7440.74-0.00-0.00
East CarolinaAmer0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
FurmanSC0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.020.0280.6580.650.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.020.0222.2222.22-0.01-0.01
NevadaMWC0.020.0279.4179.410.010.01
Portland St.BSky0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
RiceCUSA0.020.0217.2417.24-0.02-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.020.0280.0080.000.010.01
UABCUSA0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
UtahP120.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01