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Through games of Mar 11, 2018.


Memphis

Conference:Amer
Expected RPI:106.0
Current RPI:106
Expected SOS:112
Current SOS:112
Current Record:21-13
Expected Record:21-13
Current Conf Record:12-9
Expected Conf Record:12-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-2
Current OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC RPI:184
Expected OOC SOS:277



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-13106.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Memphis.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Alabama (42.0)SECN82-70L0%0.0
11-14Little Rock (308.0)SBH70-62W100%0.0
11-21New Orleans (239.0)SlndH63-52W100%0.0
11-25Northern Kentucky (115.0)HorzH76-74W100%0.0
11-30UAB (155.0)CUSAA71-56L0%0.0
12-2Mercer (174.0)SCH83-81W100%0.0
12-5Samford (296.0)SCH65-64W100%0.0
12-9Bryant (341.0)NECH90-72W100%0.0
12-12Albany (142.0)AEH67-58W100%0.0
12-16Louisville (38.0)ACCN72-81L0%0.0
12-20Siena (299.0)MAACH70-66W100%0.0
12-23Loyola MD (322.0)PatH83-71W100%0.0
12-28LSU (95.0)SECH61-71L0%0.0
12-31Cincinnati (6.0)AmerA82-48L0%0.0
1-3UCF (84.0)AmerA65-56L0%0.0
1-6Tulsa (89.0)AmerH76-67W100%0.0
1-9Tulane (175.0)AmerH96-89W100%0.0
1-13Temple (52.0)AmerA72-75W100%0.0
1-16Connecticut (123.0)AmerH73-49W100%0.0
1-20Tulsa (89.0)AmerA64-51L0%0.0
1-27Cincinnati (6.0)AmerH48-62L0%0.0
1-31South Florida (278.0)AmerA74-86W100%0.0
2-3East Carolina (274.0)AmerA88-85L0%0.0
2-6Wichita St. (16.0)AmerH65-85L0%0.0
2-11UCF (84.0)AmerH64-68L0%0.0
2-14SMU (113.0)AmerA67-70W100%0.0
2-17Tulane (175.0)AmerA63-68W100%0.0
2-22Houston (18.0)AmerH91-85W100%0.0
2-25Connecticut (123.0)AmerA79-83W100%0.0
3-1South Florida (278.0)AmerH51-75L0%0.0
3-4East Carolina (274.0)AmerH90-70W100%0.0
3-8South Florida (278.0)AmerN79-77W100%0.0
3-9Tulsa (89.0)AmerN64-67W100%0.0
3-10Cincinnati (6.0)AmerN70-60L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Memphis's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Memphis's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Memphis.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MemphisAmer26.3926.3957.2457.243.823.82
South FloridaAmer5.085.0831.0331.03-1.93-1.93
TulsaAmer5.085.0864.2964.291.451.45
CincinnatiAmer5.065.0687.1087.103.753.75
UCFAmer3.743.7456.6756.670.500.50
East CarolinaAmer3.703.7032.1432.14-1.32-1.32
ConnecticutAmer3.683.6846.6746.67-0.25-0.25
TulaneAmer3.663.6648.2848.28-0.13-0.13
HoustonAmer2.412.4181.2581.251.511.51
SMUAmer2.392.3953.1253.120.150.15
TempleAmer2.322.3254.8454.840.220.22
Wichita St.Amer2.272.2777.4277.421.251.25
AlabamaSEC1.591.5954.5554.550.140.14
MercerSC1.591.5955.1755.170.160.16
LSUSEC1.561.5653.3353.330.100.10
SamfordSC1.541.5427.5927.59-0.69-0.69
LouisvilleACC1.541.5459.3859.380.290.29
SienaMAAC1.541.5425.8125.81-0.75-0.75
AlbanyAE1.541.5470.0070.000.620.62
BryantNEC1.541.5410.0010.00-1.23-1.23
New OrleansSlnd1.541.5444.4444.44-0.17-0.17
UABCUSA1.501.5056.6756.670.200.20
Little RockSB1.471.4720.6920.69-0.86-0.86
Loyola MDPat1.471.4727.5927.59-0.66-0.66
Northern KentuckyHorz1.471.4771.4371.430.630.63
Cleveland St.Horz0.190.1932.3532.35-0.07-0.07
AuburnSEC0.180.1878.1278.120.100.10
Mississippi St.SEC0.180.1865.6265.620.060.06
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.170.1763.3363.330.050.05
Western CarolinaSC0.160.1636.6736.67-0.04-0.04
ArkansasSEC0.160.1667.6567.650.060.06
Coppin St.MEAC0.160.1615.6215.62-0.11-0.11
East Tennessee St.SC0.150.1571.8871.880.070.07
Central ArkansasSlnd0.150.1550.0050.000.000.00
ChattanoogaSC0.150.1525.8125.81-0.07-0.07
Appalachian St.SB0.140.1441.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.140.1453.1253.120.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.140.1417.8617.86-0.09-0.09
Arkansas St.SB0.140.1430.0030.00-0.06-0.06
Florida St.ACC0.140.1464.5264.520.040.04
Texas A&MSEC0.140.1462.5062.500.030.03
FloridaSEC0.130.1362.5062.500.030.03
WoffordSC0.120.1260.0060.000.020.02
Boston UniversityPat0.120.1246.6746.67-0.01-0.01
ColgatePat0.120.1258.0658.060.020.02
ManhattanMAAC0.120.1245.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.120.1232.1432.14-0.04-0.04
GeorgiaSEC0.120.1254.5554.550.010.01
MonmouthMAAC0.120.1235.4835.48-0.03-0.03
StetsonASun0.110.1128.5728.57-0.05-0.05
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.100.1051.7251.720.000.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.100.1060.7160.710.020.02
South AlabamaSB0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
FurmanSC0.100.1067.7467.740.030.03
The CitadelSC0.100.1027.5927.59-0.04-0.04
UNC GreensboroSC0.100.1077.4277.420.050.05
VMISC0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
LamarSlnd0.100.1053.5753.570.010.01
BucknellPat0.100.1073.5373.530.050.05
Central ConnecticutNEC0.100.1043.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.100.1068.7568.750.040.04
VermontAE0.100.1078.7978.790.060.06
Holy CrossPat0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Oral RobertsSum0.100.1028.5728.57-0.04-0.04
UMBCAE0.100.1067.7467.740.030.03
IonaMAAC0.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.090.0948.4848.48-0.00-0.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.090.0951.5251.520.000.00
UTSACUSA0.090.0953.3353.330.010.01
DrexelCAA0.090.0937.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Oklahoma St.B120.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.090.0945.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.090.0969.7069.700.040.04
SouthernSWAC0.090.0941.9441.94-0.02-0.02
FairfieldMAAC0.090.0951.5251.520.000.00
FIUCUSA0.090.0937.9337.93-0.02-0.02
MissouriSEC0.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
IndianaB100.090.0951.6151.610.000.00
ArizonaP120.090.0979.4179.410.050.05
KentuckySEC0.090.0970.5970.590.040.04
BuffaloMAC0.090.0975.7675.760.050.05
RichmondA100.090.0937.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.090.0943.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.090.0940.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.080.0830.7730.77-0.03-0.03
OaklandHorz0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.080.0880.6580.650.050.05
Incarnate WordSlnd0.070.0712.5012.50-0.06-0.06
McNeese St.Slnd0.070.0732.0032.00-0.03-0.03
Northwestern St.Slnd0.070.078.008.00-0.06-0.06
ArmyPat0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
NavyPat0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
RutgersB100.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.070.0730.0030.00-0.03-0.03
St. John'sBE0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
LehighPat0.070.0751.7251.720.000.00
BinghamtonAE0.070.0731.0331.03-0.03-0.03
DartmouthIvy0.070.0723.0823.08-0.04-0.04
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
UMass LowellAE0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.070.0746.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
HartfordAE0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
Iowa St.B120.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
New HampshireAE0.070.0727.5927.59-0.03-0.03
Western MichiganMAC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.070.079.689.68-0.06-0.06
TennesseeSEC0.070.0775.7675.760.040.04
ClemsonACC0.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
North CarolinaACC0.070.0771.4371.430.030.03
St. Francis PANEC0.070.0757.1457.140.010.01
CanisiusMAAC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
ColumbiaIvy0.070.0726.9226.92-0.03-0.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Notre DameACC0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.070.0758.6258.620.010.01
ElonCAA0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.070.0725.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.070.0713.3313.33-0.05-0.05
QuinnipiacMAAC0.070.0736.3636.36-0.02-0.02
VillanovaBE0.070.0788.2488.240.050.05
South CarolinaSEC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
SyracuseACC0.070.0760.6160.610.010.01
VirginiaACC0.070.0793.9493.940.060.06
Alabama St.SWAC0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
UCLAP120.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
WyomingMWC0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
XavierBE0.060.0684.8584.850.050.05
DetroitHorz0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Green BayHorz0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
IUPUIHorz0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0580.0080.000.030.03
AmericanPat0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
CampbellBSth0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Coastal CarolinaSB0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.056.676.67-0.04-0.04
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
LafayettePat0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
RadfordBSth0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0512.5012.50-0.04-0.04
TroySB0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
La SalleA100.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
MaineAE0.050.0513.3313.33-0.03-0.03
MarshallCUSA0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Miami OHMAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
WagnerNEC0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
YaleIvy0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
LibertyBSth0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
MarquetteBE0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
MaristMAAC0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
Michigan St.B100.050.0587.8887.880.030.03
NebraskaB100.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
OregonP120.050.0564.7164.710.010.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
West VirginiaB120.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
William & MaryCAA0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
MississippiSEC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
OklahomaB120.040.0458.0658.060.010.01
PittsburghACC0.040.0425.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.040.0465.6265.620.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.040.0435.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0344.4444.44-0.00-0.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0322.2222.22-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
ColoradoP120.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.020.0224.2424.24-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.020.0284.3884.380.020.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
Texas St.SB0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
TowsonCAA0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
ValparaisoMVC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
BrownIvy0.020.0238.4638.46-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.020.0242.4242.42-0.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
MichiganB100.020.0279.4179.410.010.01
North FloridaASun0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.020.0217.2417.24-0.02-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
CaliforniaP120.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
NiagaraMAAC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
PennIvy0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
RiderMAAC0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.020.0280.0080.000.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
UMKCWAC0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Boise St.MWC0.020.0273.3373.330.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.020.0255.8855.880.000.00
Cal PolyBW0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
George MasonA100.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
Miami FLACC0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.020.0261.7661.760.010.01
PurdueB100.020.0282.3582.350.010.01
Saint LouisA100.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Seton HallBE0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
TCUB120.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
USCP120.020.0267.6567.650.010.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
BYUWCC0.020.0270.5970.590.010.01
LipscombASun0.020.0268.9768.970.010.01
MinnesotaB100.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
TexasB120.020.0257.5857.580.000.00