Mercer

Conference:	SC
Expected RPI:	174.0
Current RPI:	174
Expected SOS:	201
Current SOS:	201
Current Record:	16-14
Expected Record:	16-14
Current Conf Record:	11-8
Expected Conf Record:	11-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	13-3
Current OOC Record:	5-6
Expected OOC Record:	5-6
Expected OOC RPI:	192
Expected OOC SOS:	203

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
16-14	174.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Mercer.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	UCF (84.0)	Amer	A	88-79	L	0%
11-14	Jackson St. (330.0)	SWAC	H	86-58	W	100%
11-17	Liberty (211.0)	BSth	A	48-63	W	100%
11-18	Drexel (242.0)	CAA	N	59-78	W	100%
11-19	Colorado (82.0)	P12	N	79-70	L	0%
11-29	Tennessee (8.0)	SEC	A	84-60	L	0%
12-2	Memphis (106.0)	Amer	A	83-81	L	0%
12-9	Florida A&M (332.0)	MEAC	H	82-64	W	100%
12-17	La Salle (202.0)	A10	A	95-85	L	0%
12-19	Alabama (42.0)	SEC	N	80-79	L	0%
12-28	Kennesaw St. (301.0)	ASun	H	89-56	W	100%
12-31	East Tennessee St. (93.0)	SC	H	55-74	L	0%
1-6	Furman (97.0)	SC	A	74-71	L	0%
1-10	Western Carolina (215.0)	SC	A	58-56	L	0%
1-13	Samford (296.0)	SC	H	81-50	W	100%
1-15	Chattanooga (304.0)	SC	H	75-71	W	100%
1-18	VMI (313.0)	SC	A	56-62	W	100%
1-20	UNC Greensboro (65.0)	SC	A	70-66	L	0%
1-24	East Tennessee St. (93.0)	SC	A	84-75	L	0%
1-27	The Citadel (281.0)	SC	H	74-76	L	0%
2-1	Furman (97.0)	SC	H	73-85	L	0%
2-3	Wofford (129.0)	SC	H	73-65	W	100%
2-10	Chattanooga (304.0)	SC	A	75-84	W	100%
2-12	Samford (296.0)	SC	A	69-74	W	100%
2-15	VMI (313.0)	SC	H	82-58	W	100%
2-17	UNC Greensboro (65.0)	SC	H	77-74	W	100%
2-20	Western Carolina (215.0)	SC	H	81-64	W	100%
2-23	The Citadel (281.0)	SC	A	70-83	W	100%
2-25	Wofford (129.0)	SC	A	68-69	W	100%
3-3	Wofford (129.0)	SC	N	53-73	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Mercer's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Mercer's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Mercer.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Mercer	SC	26.42	26.42	55.22	55.22	2.76	2.76
Wofford	SC	5.94	5.94	62.96	62.96	1.54	1.54
UNC Greensboro	SC	4.50	4.50	79.31	79.31	2.64	2.64
East Tennessee St.	SC	4.44	4.44	70.00	70.00	1.78	1.78
Furman	SC	4.41	4.41	65.52	65.52	1.37	1.37
Chattanooga	SC	4.38	4.38	27.59	27.59	-1.96	-1.96
The Citadel	SC	4.38	4.38	25.93	25.93	-2.11	-2.11
Samford	SC	4.38	4.38	28.57	28.57	-1.88	-1.88
Western Carolina	SC	4.33	4.33	35.71	35.71	-1.24	-1.24
VMI	SC	4.32	4.32	26.92	26.92	-1.99	-1.99
Memphis	Amer	1.80	1.80	60.61	60.61	0.38	0.38
Tennessee	SEC	1.74	1.74	75.00	75.00	0.87	0.87
Alabama	SEC	1.74	1.74	54.55	54.55	0.16	0.16
UCF	Amer	1.74	1.74	58.06	58.06	0.28	0.28
Kennesaw St.	ASun	1.72	1.72	29.63	29.63	-0.70	-0.70
Liberty	BSth	1.72	1.72	56.67	56.67	0.23	0.23
Drexel	CAA	1.69	1.69	38.71	38.71	-0.38	-0.38
La Salle	A10	1.69	1.69	38.71	38.71	-0.38	-0.38
Colorado	P12	1.67	1.67	51.61	51.61	0.05	0.05
Florida A&M	MEAC	1.67	1.67	25.00	25.00	-0.83	-0.83
Jackson St.	SWAC	1.67	1.67	34.48	34.48	-0.52	-0.52
UNC Asheville	BSth	0.33	0.33	61.29	61.29	0.07	0.07
High Point	BSth	0.28	0.28	40.74	40.74	-0.05	-0.05
Presbyterian	BSth	0.19	0.19	27.59	27.59	-0.09	-0.09
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.19	0.19	9.68	9.68	-0.15	-0.15
Cincinnati	Amer	0.18	0.18	88.24	88.24	0.14	0.14
Kentucky	SEC	0.18	0.18	70.59	70.59	0.07	0.07
North Florida	ASun	0.17	0.17	36.67	36.67	-0.04	-0.04
Longwood	BSth	0.17	0.17	13.33	13.33	-0.12	-0.12
North Carolina	ACC	0.16	0.16	71.43	71.43	0.07	0.07
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.16	0.16	62.50	62.50	0.04	0.04
Elon	CAA	0.16	0.16	40.00	40.00	-0.03	-0.03
UNC Wilmington	CAA	0.16	0.16	30.00	30.00	-0.06	-0.06
South Carolina	SEC	0.16	0.16	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
LSU	SEC	0.15	0.15	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Radford	BSth	0.14	0.14	62.50	62.50	0.04	0.04
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.14	0.14	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Campbell	BSth	0.14	0.14	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.14	0.14	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.14	0.14	25.81	25.81	-0.07	-0.07
James Madison	CAA	0.14	0.14	29.03	29.03	-0.06	-0.06
Southern	SWAC	0.13	0.13	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.13	0.13	40.62	40.62	-0.03	-0.03
College of Charleston	CAA	0.13	0.13	77.42	77.42	0.07	0.07
Massachusetts	A10	0.13	0.13	39.39	39.39	-0.03	-0.03
Arkansas	SEC	0.13	0.13	67.65	67.65	0.05	0.05
Houston	Amer	0.13	0.13	78.79	78.79	0.07	0.07
Fordham	A10	0.13	0.13	29.03	29.03	-0.05	-0.05
Northern Kentucky	Horz	0.13	0.13	68.97	68.97	0.05	0.05
Temple	Amer	0.13	0.13	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
South Florida	Amer	0.13	0.13	31.25	31.25	-0.05	-0.05
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.12	0.12	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.11	0.11	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
Texas Tech	B12	0.11	0.11	72.73	72.73	0.05	0.05
Clemson	ACC	0.11	0.11	71.88	71.88	0.05	0.05
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.11	0.11	12.50	12.50	-0.08	-0.08
California	P12	0.11	0.11	25.81	25.81	-0.05	-0.05
Lipscomb	ASun	0.11	0.11	68.97	68.97	0.04	0.04
Winthrop	BSth	0.11	0.11	57.14	57.14	0.02	0.02
Wake Forest	ACC	0.11	0.11	35.48	35.48	-0.03	-0.03
Delaware	CAA	0.11	0.11	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Northeastern	CAA	0.11	0.11	68.75	68.75	0.04	0.04
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.11	0.11	26.67	26.67	-0.05	-0.05
Howard	MEAC	0.10	0.10	25.81	25.81	-0.05	-0.05
Arizona	P12	0.10	0.10	79.41	79.41	0.06	0.06
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.10	0.10	6.67	6.67	-0.09	-0.09
Connecticut	Amer	0.10	0.10	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
East Carolina	Amer	0.10	0.10	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Tulsa	Amer	0.10	0.10	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Auburn	SEC	0.10	0.10	78.12	78.12	0.06	0.06
Texas A&M	SEC	0.10	0.10	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Jacksonville	ASun	0.09	0.09	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Florida St.	ACC	0.09	0.09	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
Davidson	A10	0.09	0.09	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Duquesne	A10	0.09	0.09	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
NJIT	ASun	0.09	0.09	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Stetson	ASun	0.09	0.09	28.57	28.57	-0.04	-0.04
VCU	A10	0.09	0.09	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Butler	BE	0.08	0.08	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Coastal Carolina	SB	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Harvard	Ivy	0.08	0.08	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.08	0.08	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Georgia Southern	SB	0.08	0.08	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Hofstra	CAA	0.08	0.08	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Washington	P12	0.08	0.08	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.08	0.08	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
Georgia St.	SB	0.08	0.08	68.75	68.75	0.03	0.03
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.08	0.08	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
UT Arlington	SB	0.08	0.08	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.08	0.08	16.67	16.67	-0.05	-0.05
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Fort Wayne	Sum	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Quinnipiac	MAAC	0.08	0.08	36.36	36.36	-0.02	-0.02
UAB	CUSA	0.08	0.08	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Arizona St.	P12	0.08	0.08	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Towson	CAA	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
William & Mary	CAA	0.08	0.08	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Xavier	BE	0.08	0.08	84.85	84.85	0.05	0.05
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
SMU	Amer	0.08	0.08	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Wichita St.	Amer	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Missouri	SEC	0.08	0.08	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Tulane	Amer	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.08	0.08	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.08	0.08	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.08	0.08	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Florida	SEC	0.07	0.07	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
American	Pat	0.06	0.06	20.00	20.00	-0.04	-0.04
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.06	0.06	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
USC Upstate	ASun	0.06	0.06	10.71	10.71	-0.05	-0.05
Marist	MAAC	0.06	0.06	19.35	19.35	-0.04	-0.04
Ohio St.	B10	0.06	0.06	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
UMBC	AE	0.06	0.06	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Appalachian St.	SB	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.06	0.06	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Loyola Chicago	MVC	0.06	0.06	84.38	84.38	0.04	0.04
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.06	0.06	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.06	0.06	44.12	44.12	-0.01	-0.01
Valparaiso	MVC	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Akron	MAC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Charlotte	CUSA	0.05	0.05	17.86	17.86	-0.03	-0.03
Duke	ACC	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Marshall	CUSA	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
New Hampshire	AE	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
Virginia	ACC	0.05	0.05	93.94	93.94	0.05	0.05
Wyoming	MWC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Detroit	Horz	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Drake	MVC	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Saint Louis	A10	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Troy	SB	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
UCLA	P12	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
USC	P12	0.05	0.05	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Utah	P12	0.05	0.05	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Washington St.	P12	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.05	0.05	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Villanova	BE	0.05	0.05	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
Loyola MD	Pat	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.02	-0.02
Hampton	MEAC	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Texas	B12	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Seattle	WAC	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Yale	Ivy	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Central Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Maryland	B10	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Toledo	MAC	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Boston College	ACC	0.03	0.03	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Bowling Green	MAC	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Bucknell	Pat	0.03	0.03	73.53	73.53	0.01	0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Dayton	A10	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Denver	Sum	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
George Mason	A10	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
George Washington	A10	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Holy Cross	Pat	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Iowa	B10	0.03	0.03	42.42	42.42	-0.00	-0.00
Lafayette	Pat	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.03	0.03	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
New Mexico	MWC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Oregon	P12	0.03	0.03	64.71	64.71	0.01	0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Penn	Ivy	0.03	0.03	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
Richmond	A10	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Rider	MAAC	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Robert Morris	NEC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Saint Peter's	MAAC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
San Diego	WCC	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
South Alabama	SB	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.03	0.03	80.00	80.00	0.02	0.02
St. John's	BE	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Stanford	P12	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
West Virginia	B12	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	15.62	15.62	-0.02	-0.02
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Green Bay	Horz	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Murray St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	82.76	82.76	0.02	0.02
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Purdue	B10	0.03	0.03	82.35	82.35	0.02	0.02
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.03	0.03	80.00	80.00	0.02	0.02
UNLV	MWC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Albany	AE	0.02	0.02	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Bryant	NEC	0.02	0.02	9.68	9.68	-0.02	-0.02
BYU	WCC	0.02	0.02	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Little Rock	SB	0.02	0.02	20.00	20.00	-0.01	-0.01
Louisville	ACC	0.02	0.02	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
New Orleans	Slnd	0.02	0.02	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Oklahoma	B12	0.02	0.02	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Siena	MAAC	0.02	0.02	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01