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Through games of Mar 11, 2018.

Michigan

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:12.0
Current RPI:12
Expected SOS:56
Current SOS:56
Current Record:27-7
Expected Record:27-7
Current Conf Record:17-5
Expected Conf Record:17-5
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:5-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:10-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-0
Current OOC Record:10-2
Expected OOC Record:10-2
Expected OOC RPI:66
Expected OOC SOS:259


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
27-712.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Michigan.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11North Florida (218.0)ASunH86-66W100%0.0
11-13Central Michigan (167.0)MACH72-65W100%0.0
11-16Southern Miss (207.0)CUSAH61-47W100%0.0
11-20LSU (95.0)SECN77-75L0%0.0
11-22VCU (135.0)A10N68-60W100%0.0
11-26UC Riverside (300.0)BWH87-42W100%0.0
11-29North Carolina (4.0)ACCA86-71L0%0.0
12-2Indiana (125.0)B10H69-55W100%0.0
12-4Ohio St. (20.0)B10A71-62L0%0.0
12-9UCLA (36.0)P12H78-69W100%0.0
12-12Texas (51.0)B12A52-59W100%0.0
12-16Detroit (318.0)HorzN90-58W100%0.0
12-21Alabama A&M (350.0)SWACH97-47W100%0.0
12-30Jacksonville (286.0)ASunH76-51W100%0.0
1-2Iowa (157.0)B10A68-75W100%0.0
1-6Illinois (181.0)B10H79-69W100%0.0
1-9Purdue (9.0)B10H69-70L0%0.0
1-13Michigan St. (14.0)B10A72-82W100%0.0
1-15Maryland (74.0)B10H68-67W100%0.0
1-18Nebraska (56.0)B10A72-52L0%0.0
1-21Rutgers (203.0)B10H62-47W100%0.0
1-25Purdue (9.0)B10A92-88L0%0.0
1-29Northwestern (168.0)B10H58-47W100%0.0
2-3Minnesota (171.0)B10H76-73W100%0.0
2-6Northwestern (168.0)B10A61-52L0%0.0
2-11Wisconsin (114.0)B10A72-83W100%0.0
2-14Iowa (157.0)B10H74-59W100%0.0
2-18Ohio St. (20.0)B10H74-62W100%0.0
2-21Penn St. (77.0)B10A63-72W100%0.0
2-24Maryland (74.0)B10A61-85W100%0.0
3-1Iowa (157.0)B10N77-71W100%0.0
3-2Nebraska (56.0)B10N58-77W100%0.0
3-3Michigan St. (14.0)B10N64-75W100%0.0
3-4Purdue (9.0)B10N66-75W100%0.0

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Michigan's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Michigan's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Michigan.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.


Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MichiganB1026.2826.2881.2581.2516.4216.42
PurdueB105.015.0183.8783.873.393.39
IowaB104.984.9846.6746.67-0.33-0.33
Michigan St.B103.603.6093.5593.553.143.14
MarylandB103.593.5962.0762.070.870.87
Ohio St.B103.573.5776.6776.671.911.91
NorthwesternB103.533.5344.8344.83-0.37-0.37
NebraskaB103.513.5170.0070.001.401.40
Penn St.B102.362.3663.6463.640.640.64
WisconsinB102.292.2946.8846.88-0.14-0.14
RutgersB102.282.2843.7543.75-0.29-0.29
MinnesotaB102.242.2448.3948.39-0.07-0.07
IndianaB102.172.1753.3353.330.140.14
IllinoisB102.172.1743.3343.33-0.29-0.29
North FloridaASun1.611.6137.9337.93-0.39-0.39
North CarolinaACC1.561.5670.5970.590.640.64
JacksonvilleASun1.521.5239.2939.29-0.33-0.33
Alabama A&MSWAC1.521.5210.0010.00-1.21-1.21
UCLAP121.521.5267.7467.740.540.54
VCUA101.521.5256.2556.250.190.19
LSUSEC1.501.5053.3353.330.100.10
Southern MissCUSA1.491.4941.3841.38-0.26-0.26
DetroitHorz1.491.4920.6920.69-0.88-0.88
TexasB121.491.4959.3859.380.280.28
Central MichiganMAC1.471.4755.1755.170.150.15
UC RiversideBW1.471.4725.0025.00-0.74-0.74
LipscombASun0.210.2168.9768.970.080.08
Chicago St.WAC0.200.203.333.33-0.19-0.19
ButlerBE0.180.1860.6160.610.040.04
UABCUSA0.160.1658.0658.060.030.03
DukeACC0.150.1578.7978.790.090.09
NJITASun0.150.1542.8642.86-0.02-0.02
StetsonASun0.150.1528.5728.57-0.06-0.06
Long Beach St.BW0.140.1441.9441.94-0.02-0.02
DePaulBE0.140.1435.4835.48-0.04-0.04
SouthernSWAC0.140.1441.9441.94-0.02-0.02
ValparaisoMVC0.140.1443.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.140.1453.3353.330.010.01
Southern UtahBSky0.140.1436.6736.67-0.04-0.04
StanfordP120.140.1454.5554.550.010.01
Notre DameACC0.130.1357.5857.580.020.02
Iowa St.B120.130.1341.9441.94-0.02-0.02
MarquetteBE0.130.1359.3859.380.020.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.130.1328.5728.57-0.05-0.05
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.120.1264.5264.520.040.04
USC UpstateASun0.120.1210.7110.71-0.10-0.10
OhioMAC0.120.1243.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.120.1233.3333.33-0.04-0.04
AlabamaSEC0.120.1255.8855.880.010.01
CreightonBE0.120.1264.5264.520.030.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.120.1232.3532.35-0.04-0.04
Northern IllinoisMAC0.120.1236.6736.67-0.03-0.03
Stony BrookAE0.110.1138.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.110.1125.8125.81-0.06-0.06
Texas TechB120.110.1172.7372.730.050.05
IUPUIHorz0.110.1132.1432.14-0.04-0.04
ColoradoP120.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.110.1165.6265.620.040.04
Western KentuckyCUSA0.110.1169.7069.700.040.04
ArizonaP120.110.1179.4179.410.070.07
LouisvilleACC0.110.1160.6160.610.020.02
TennesseeSEC0.110.1175.7675.760.060.06
Eastern MichiganMAC0.100.1058.6258.620.020.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.100.1020.0020.00-0.06-0.06
MilwaukeeHorz0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
Green BayHorz0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
UTSACUSA0.090.0953.3353.330.010.01
CaliforniaP120.090.0925.8125.81-0.05-0.05
OaklandHorz0.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.090.0944.1244.12-0.01-0.01
OklahomaB120.090.0958.0658.060.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.090.0967.6567.650.030.03
Georgia TechACC0.090.0940.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.090.0937.9337.93-0.02-0.02
BucknellPat0.090.0973.5373.530.040.04
KansasB120.090.0979.4179.410.050.05
FairfieldMAAC0.090.0951.5251.520.000.00
DrakeMVC0.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Miami FLACC0.090.0970.9770.970.040.04
SyracuseACC0.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.090.0930.0030.00-0.04-0.04
North Carolina St.ACC0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
ClemsonACC0.090.0971.8871.880.040.04
Tennessee St.OVC0.090.0946.4346.43-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.090.0993.9493.940.080.08
UC DavisBW0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
Cal PolyBW0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
Wright St.Horz0.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
UC IrvineBW0.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
FIUCUSA0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.070.0776.6776.670.040.04
ToledoMAC0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
Western MichiganMAC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
MissouriSEC0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
South Carolina St.MEAC0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Miami OHMAC0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
Houston BaptistSlnd0.070.0710.7110.71-0.05-0.05
Texas A&MSEC0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
Seton HallBE0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Appalachian St.SB0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.070.0788.2488.240.050.05
Florida St.ACC0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
Western CarolinaSC0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.070.0755.8855.880.010.01
BaylorB120.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
FordhamA100.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
DaytonA100.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.070.0780.6580.650.040.04
South Dakota St.Sum0.070.0780.0080.000.040.04
George MasonA100.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.070.0745.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
HawaiiBW0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
SeattleWAC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
UTEPCUSA0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
FloridaSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Fort WayneSum0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
South DakotaSum0.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
BrownIvy0.050.0538.4638.46-0.01-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Loyola MDPat0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0516.6716.67-0.03-0.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0512.5012.50-0.04-0.04
New MexicoMWC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
UMBCAE0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
MontanaBSky0.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0524.2424.24-0.02-0.02
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Saint LouisA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
KentuckySEC0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
MississippiSEC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.056.676.67-0.04-0.04
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.01-0.01
MaristMAAC0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
North DakotaBSky0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
OregonP120.050.0564.7164.710.010.01
Oregon St.P120.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
RadfordBSth0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
The CitadelSC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
UCFAmer0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
USCP120.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
UtahP120.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
WoffordSC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
MassachusettsA100.050.0539.3939.39-0.01-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.040.0435.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.040.0428.5728.57-0.02-0.02
ConnecticutAmer0.040.0443.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.040.0466.6766.670.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.040.0457.5857.580.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.040.0478.1278.120.030.03
RichmondA100.040.0437.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.040.0443.3343.33-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.040.0465.6265.620.010.01
West VirginiaB120.040.0470.5970.590.020.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.040.0415.6215.62-0.03-0.03
DavidsonA100.040.0465.6265.620.010.01
PittsburghACC0.040.0425.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Air ForceMWC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
PacificWCC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.030.0316.1316.13-0.02-0.02
Portland St.BSky0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.030.0365.5265.520.010.01
AkronMAC0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
CharlotteCUSA0.020.0217.8617.86-0.02-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.020.0282.7682.760.020.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
RiceCUSA0.020.0217.2417.24-0.02-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
TroySB0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
UMKCWAC0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
HoustonAmer0.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
HowardMEAC0.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.020.0213.3313.33-0.02-0.02
MemphisAmer0.020.0261.7661.760.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.020.0283.3383.330.020.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
South FloridaAmer0.020.0231.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.020.0280.0080.000.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
Arizona St.P120.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.020.0288.2488.240.020.02
HarvardIvy0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
ProvidenceBE0.020.0261.7661.760.010.01
WashingtonP120.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Washington St.P120.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.020.029.689.68-0.02-0.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
DuquesneA100.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
East CarolinaAmer0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
HartfordAE0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
New HampshireAE0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.020.028.008.00-0.02-0.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
TempleAmer0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
UMass LowellAE0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
VMISC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
WinthropBSth0.020.0257.1457.140.000.00
XavierBE0.020.0284.8584.850.020.02
YaleIvy0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
BinghamtonAE0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
ColumbiaIvy0.020.0226.9226.92-0.01-0.01
RiderMAAC0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
PortlandWCC0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
TulaneAmer0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00