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Through games of Mar 11, 2018.


Minnesota

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:171.0
Current RPI:171
Expected SOS:94
Current SOS:94
Current Record:15-17
Expected Record:15-17
Current Conf Record:4-15
Expected Conf Record:4-15
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-1
Current OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC RPI:75
Expected OOC SOS:248



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-17171.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Minnesota.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10USC Upstate (344.0)ASunH92-77W100%0.0
11-13Providence (32.0)BEA74-86W100%0.0
11-15Niagara (163.0)MAACH107-81W100%0.0
11-19Western Carolina (215.0)SCH92-64W100%0.0
11-21Alabama A&M (350.0)SWACH100-57W100%0.0
11-24Massachusetts (240.0)A10N69-51W100%0.0
11-25Alabama (42.0)SECN89-84W100%0.0
11-29Miami FL (28.0)ACCH81-86L0%0.0
12-3Rutgers (203.0)B10H89-67W100%0.0
12-5Nebraska (56.0)B10A78-68L0%0.0
12-9Arkansas (30.0)SECA95-79L0%0.0
12-11Drake (166.0)MVCH68-67W100%0.0
12-21Oral Roberts (255.0)SumH77-63W100%0.0
12-23Florida Atlantic (275.0)CUSAH95-60W100%0.0
12-30Harvard (117.0)IvyH65-55W100%0.0
1-3Illinois (181.0)B10H77-67W100%0.0
1-6Indiana (125.0)B10H71-75L0%0.0
1-10Northwestern (168.0)B10A83-60L0%0.0
1-13Purdue (9.0)B10H47-81L0%0.0
1-15Penn St. (77.0)B10A84-95W100%0.0
1-18Maryland (74.0)B10A77-66L0%0.0
1-20Ohio St. (20.0)B10N49-67L0%0.0
1-23Northwestern (168.0)B10H69-77L0%0.0
1-30Iowa (157.0)B10A94-80L0%0.0
2-3Michigan (12.0)B10A76-73L0%0.0
2-6Nebraska (56.0)B10H85-91L0%0.0
2-9Indiana (125.0)B10A80-56L0%0.0
2-13Michigan St. (14.0)B10H57-87L0%0.0
2-19Wisconsin (114.0)B10A73-63L0%0.0
2-21Iowa (157.0)B10H86-82W100%0.0
2-25Purdue (9.0)B10A84-60L0%0.0
2-28Rutgers (203.0)B10N54-65L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Minnesota's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Minnesota's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Minnesota.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MinnesotaB1026.0826.0841.9141.91-4.22-4.22
RutgersB103.803.8041.9441.94-0.61-0.61
PurdueB103.753.7581.2581.252.342.34
IowaB103.733.7341.9441.94-0.60-0.60
IndianaB103.703.7048.2848.28-0.13-0.13
NebraskaB103.683.6866.6766.671.231.23
NorthwesternB103.653.6541.3841.38-0.63-0.63
MichiganB102.382.3878.7978.791.371.37
Penn St.B102.342.3463.6463.640.640.64
WisconsinB102.242.2443.7543.75-0.28-0.28
IllinoisB102.242.2443.3343.33-0.30-0.30
Michigan St.B102.222.2287.5087.501.661.66
Ohio St.B102.212.2174.1974.191.071.07
MarylandB102.192.1956.6756.670.290.29
MassachusettsA101.661.6640.6240.62-0.31-0.31
Alabama A&MSWAC1.661.6610.0010.00-1.33-1.33
ArkansasSEC1.611.6166.6766.670.540.54
NiagaraMAAC1.611.6161.2961.290.360.36
Western CarolinaSC1.611.6137.9337.93-0.39-0.39
AlabamaSEC1.611.6157.5857.580.240.24
DrakeMVC1.611.6150.0050.000.000.00
Oral RobertsSum1.611.6129.6329.63-0.66-0.66
HarvardIvy1.591.5958.6258.620.270.27
ProvidenceBE1.591.5963.6463.640.430.43
Florida AtlanticCUSA1.561.5633.3333.33-0.52-0.52
Miami FLACC1.561.5670.0070.000.620.62
USC UpstateASun1.561.5611.1111.11-1.22-1.22
CreightonBE0.200.2064.5264.520.060.06
Chicago St.WAC0.190.193.333.33-0.18-0.18
North CarolinaACC0.170.1771.4371.430.070.07
DePaulBE0.170.1735.4835.48-0.05-0.05
ValparaisoMVC0.150.1543.3343.33-0.02-0.02
La SalleA100.150.1540.6240.62-0.03-0.03
Seton HallBE0.140.1465.6265.620.040.04
ButlerBE0.140.1460.6160.610.030.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.140.1464.5264.520.040.04
Texas A&MSEC0.140.1462.5062.500.030.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.130.1380.0080.000.080.08
UABCUSA0.130.1358.0658.060.020.02
North FloridaASun0.130.1336.6736.67-0.03-0.03
BrownIvy0.130.1338.4638.46-0.03-0.03
LipscombASun0.120.1268.9768.970.050.05
SouthernSWAC0.120.1241.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.120.1255.8855.880.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.120.1260.6160.610.030.03
Stony BrookAE0.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
FairfieldMAAC0.120.1251.5251.520.000.00
MarquetteBE0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
LSUSEC0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
AuburnSEC0.110.1178.1278.120.060.06
TennesseeSEC0.110.1175.7675.760.060.06
DenverSum0.110.1146.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Fort WayneSum0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
Missouri St.MVC0.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.110.1124.1424.14-0.05-0.05
North TexasCUSA0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.100.1028.5728.57-0.04-0.04
NJITASun0.100.1042.8642.86-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.100.1040.7440.74-0.02-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.100.1037.9337.93-0.02-0.02
SamfordSC0.100.1026.6726.67-0.05-0.05
DukeACC0.100.1078.7978.790.060.06
Notre DameACC0.100.1057.5857.580.020.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.100.1043.7543.75-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.100.1045.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.100.1025.8125.81-0.05-0.05
Florida St.ACC0.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
MaristMAAC0.100.1019.3519.35-0.06-0.06
GeorgiaSEC0.100.1054.5554.550.010.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
FordhamA100.100.1029.0329.03-0.04-0.04
OklahomaB120.100.1058.0658.060.020.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.100.1037.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.100.1032.3532.35-0.03-0.03
KentuckySEC0.090.0970.5970.590.040.04
St. John'sBE0.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
George MasonA100.090.0948.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.090.0978.1278.120.050.05
South CarolinaSEC0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
XavierBE0.090.0984.8584.850.060.06
FloridaSEC0.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
South DakotaSum0.080.0873.3373.330.040.04
JacksonvilleASun0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.080.0831.2531.25-0.03-0.03
Texas TechB120.080.0872.7372.730.040.04
FurmanSC0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
PennIvy0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
WoffordSC0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
PrincetonIvy0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
The CitadelSC0.080.0827.5927.59-0.03-0.03
Southern MissCUSA0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
YaleIvy0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
ClemsonACC0.080.0871.8871.880.030.03
BradleyMVC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.080.0840.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Wake ForestACC0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
ColumbiaIvy0.080.0826.9226.92-0.03-0.03
MercerSC0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.070.0744.1244.12-0.01-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
PittsburghACC0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Sacred HeartNEC0.070.0730.0030.00-0.03-0.03
St. BonaventureA100.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
ColoradoP120.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.070.0736.3636.36-0.02-0.02
UCFAmer0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
BYUWCC0.070.0770.5970.590.030.03
Southern UtahBSky0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
RiderMAAC0.070.0770.9770.970.030.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.070.0715.6215.62-0.05-0.05
ArizonaP120.070.0779.4179.410.040.04
MississippiSEC0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
VillanovaBE0.070.0788.2488.240.050.05
CharlotteCUSA0.060.0617.8617.86-0.04-0.04
FIUCUSA0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.060.0628.5728.57-0.02-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.060.0678.1278.120.030.03
RiceCUSA0.060.0617.2417.24-0.04-0.04
Western IllinoisSum0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
UNLVMWC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.03-0.03
DartmouthIvy0.050.0523.0823.08-0.03-0.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
VMISC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
OaklandHorz0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
CampbellBSth0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MontanaBSky0.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
HowardMEAC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0584.3884.380.030.03
Loyola MDPat0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0516.6716.67-0.03-0.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0512.5012.50-0.04-0.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
SyracuseACC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Holy CrossPat0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
VirginiaACC0.050.0593.9493.940.040.04
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.056.676.67-0.04-0.04
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
IonaMAAC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
KansasB120.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
BucknellPat0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
BryantNEC0.050.059.689.68-0.04-0.04
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
HartfordAE0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Iowa St.B120.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
UMass LowellAE0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
Saint LouisA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
UCLAP120.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
VCUA100.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
HoustonAmer0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
IUPUIHorz0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
TexasB120.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0344.4444.44-0.00-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Little RockSB0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
PepperdineWCC0.030.0316.1316.13-0.02-0.02
TowsonCAA0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
TulsaAmer0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
UMKCWAC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.030.0377.4277.420.010.01
High PointBSth0.030.0340.7440.74-0.00-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0384.8584.850.020.02
VermontAE0.030.0378.7978.790.010.01
DrexelCAA0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0324.2424.24-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
HawaiiBW0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
NavyPat0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
UMBCAE0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
WyomingMWC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
ArmyPat0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.020.0288.2488.240.020.02
Miami OHMAC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
New HampshireAE0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
RadfordBSth0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
SienaMAAC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.020.0257.1457.140.000.00
StanfordP120.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
BaylorB120.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
DavidsonA100.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
DuquesneA100.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Green BayHorz0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
MaineAE0.020.0213.3313.33-0.02-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
RichmondA100.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
BelmontOVC0.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
BinghamtonAE0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
Colorado St.MWC0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.020.0220.0020.00-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
MemphisAmer0.020.0261.7661.760.010.01
TroySB0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
UC RiversideBW0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.020.0262.5062.500.010.01