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Through games of Mar 11, 2018.

Missouri

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:43.0
Current RPI:43
Expected SOS:34
Current SOS:34
Current Record:19-12
Expected Record:19-12
Current Conf Record:10-9
Expected Conf Record:10-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:5-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:2-0
Current OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC RPI:39
Expected OOC SOS:79


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-1243.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Missouri.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Iowa St. (144.0)B12H74-59W100%0.0
11-13Wagner (109.0)NECH99-55W100%0.0
11-16Utah (59.0)P12A77-59L0%0.0
11-23Long Beach St. (191.0)BWN58-95W100%0.0
11-24St. John's (92.0)BEN82-90W100%0.0
11-26West Virginia (27.0)B12N83-79L0%0.0
11-30UCF (84.0)AmerA59-62W100%0.0
12-5Miami OH (159.0)MACH70-51W100%0.0
12-9Green Bay (303.0)HorzH100-77W100%0.0
12-16North Florida (218.0)ASunH85-51W100%0.0
12-19Stephen F. Austin (104.0)SlndH82-81W100%0.0
12-23Illinois (181.0)B10N64-70L0%0.0
1-3South Carolina (90.0)SECA68-79W100%0.0
1-6Florida (46.0)SECH75-77L0%0.0
1-10Georgia (79.0)SECH68-56W100%0.0
1-13Arkansas (30.0)SECA65-63L0%0.0
1-17Tennessee (8.0)SECH59-55W100%0.0
1-20Texas A&M (29.0)SECA60-49L0%0.0
1-24Auburn (15.0)SECH73-91L0%0.0
1-27Mississippi St. (73.0)SECA74-62L0%0.0
1-31Alabama (42.0)SECA60-69W100%0.0
2-3Kentucky (10.0)SECH69-60W100%0.0
2-6Mississippi (141.0)SECA69-75W100%0.0
2-10Mississippi St. (73.0)SECH89-85W100%0.0
2-13Texas A&M (29.0)SECH62-58W100%0.0
2-17LSU (95.0)SECA64-63L0%0.0
2-20Mississippi (141.0)SECH87-90L0%0.0
2-24Kentucky (10.0)SECA87-66L0%0.0
2-27Vanderbilt (132.0)SECA66-74W100%0.0
3-3Arkansas (30.0)SECH77-67W100%0.0
3-8Georgia (79.0)SECN60-62L0%0.0

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Missouri's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Missouri's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Missouri.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.


Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MissouriSEC26.0826.0860.0060.005.225.22
Mississippi St.SEC3.903.9066.6766.671.301.30
KentuckySEC3.893.8971.8871.881.701.70
ArkansasSEC3.883.8868.7568.751.451.45
GeorgiaSEC3.853.8554.8454.840.370.37
MississippiSEC3.843.8436.6736.67-1.03-1.03
Texas A&MSEC3.843.8463.3363.331.021.02
TennesseeSEC2.432.4378.1278.121.371.37
AlabamaSEC2.382.3857.5857.580.360.36
LSUSEC2.362.3653.3353.330.160.16
South CarolinaSEC2.332.3351.6151.610.080.08
FloridaSEC2.302.3061.2961.290.520.52
VanderbiltSEC2.282.2838.7138.71-0.51-0.51
AuburnSEC2.282.2877.4277.421.251.25
West VirginiaB121.811.8169.7069.700.710.71
North FloridaASun1.711.7137.9337.93-0.41-0.41
Stephen F. AustinSlnd1.691.6982.7682.761.111.11
UCFAmer1.691.6961.2961.290.380.38
Iowa St.B121.681.6843.3343.33-0.22-0.22
Green BayHorz1.661.6634.4834.48-0.52-0.52
UtahP121.661.6662.0762.070.400.40
St. John'sBE1.641.6448.3948.39-0.05-0.05
Long Beach St.BW1.641.6443.3343.33-0.22-0.22
IllinoisB101.611.6140.0040.00-0.32-0.32
Miami OHMAC1.611.6146.6746.67-0.11-0.11
WagnerNEC1.611.6172.4172.410.720.72
KansasB120.220.2279.4179.410.130.13
TexasB120.200.2057.5857.580.030.03
Oklahoma St.B120.200.2057.5857.580.030.03
Kansas St.B120.170.1766.6766.670.060.06
OklahomaB120.170.1758.0658.060.030.03
ArizonaP120.150.1579.4179.410.090.09
TempleAmer0.150.1553.1253.120.010.01
BaylorB120.150.1554.8454.840.010.01
Texas TechB120.150.1572.7372.730.070.07
NJITASun0.130.1342.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.130.1324.2424.24-0.07-0.07
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.130.1351.7251.720.000.00
USCP120.130.1367.6567.650.050.05
NebraskaB100.130.1368.7568.750.050.05
Cal St. FullertonBW0.130.1362.0762.070.030.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.130.1330.7730.77-0.05-0.05
CincinnatiAmer0.130.1388.2488.240.100.10
MarquetteBE0.130.1359.3859.380.020.02
TCUB120.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
HoustonAmer0.120.1278.7978.790.070.07
ConnecticutAmer0.120.1243.7543.75-0.02-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.110.1151.5251.520.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.110.1171.8871.880.050.05
Central ConnecticutNEC0.110.1143.7543.75-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.110.1128.5728.57-0.05-0.05
Eastern MichiganMAC0.100.1058.6258.620.020.02
Michigan St.B100.100.1087.8887.880.080.08
Arizona St.P120.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
Northern KentuckyHorz0.100.1068.9768.970.040.04
Oregon St.P120.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
BryantNEC0.100.109.689.68-0.08-0.08
USC UpstateASun0.100.1010.7110.71-0.08-0.08
DaytonA100.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
BuffaloMAC0.100.1075.7675.760.050.05
DePaulBE0.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.100.1027.5927.59-0.05-0.05
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.100.1070.0070.000.040.04
Western MichiganMAC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
LipscombASun0.100.1068.9768.970.040.04
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
UCLAP120.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.100.1076.6776.670.050.05
MemphisAmer0.100.1061.7661.760.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
MinnesotaB100.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.090.0945.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
DetroitHorz0.080.0820.0020.00-0.05-0.05
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.080.088.008.00-0.07-0.07
Robert MorrisNEC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.080.0812.5012.50-0.06-0.06
Sacred HeartNEC0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.080.0853.5753.570.010.01
MichiganB100.080.0879.4179.410.050.05
Northern IllinoisMAC0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
WisconsinB100.080.0845.4545.45-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
IowaB100.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.080.0845.4545.45-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.080.0817.2417.24-0.05-0.05
Alcorn St.SWAC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Austin PeayOVC0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
Penn St.B100.080.0861.7661.760.020.02
PepperdineWCC0.080.0816.1316.13-0.05-0.05
Gardner WebbBSth0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
XavierBE0.080.0884.8584.850.050.05
VillanovaBE0.070.0788.2488.240.060.06
MassachusettsA100.070.0739.3939.39-0.02-0.02
WinthropBSth0.070.0757.1457.140.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.070.0732.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Fort WayneSum0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Fresno St.MWC0.070.0763.3363.330.020.02
SamfordSC0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
MercerSC0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.070.0771.4371.430.030.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.050.0544.4444.44-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0532.3532.35-0.02-0.02
ColoradoP120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
IUPUIHorz0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
LamarSlnd0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
OaklandHorz0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
OregonP120.050.0564.7164.710.020.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
WashingtonP120.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Washington St.P120.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Ball St.MAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
HartfordAE0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
UNLVMWC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
BelmontOVC0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
FIUCUSA0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
AkronMAC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
IndianaB100.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
RutgersB100.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
UC DavisBW0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
UC IrvineBW0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
UC RiversideBW0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
SouthernSWAC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
TulaneAmer0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
TulsaAmer0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
AmericanPat0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
BYUWCC0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
PurdueB100.050.0582.3582.350.030.03
Wake ForestACC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
BradleyMVC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
ClemsonACC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
CreightonBE0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
DukeACC0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Georgia St.SB0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Little RockSB0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
ProvidenceBE0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0580.0080.000.030.03
South FloridaAmer0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.Amer0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
FordhamA100.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
VirginiaACC0.050.0593.9493.940.040.04
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0584.8584.850.030.03
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
BucknellPat0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
HarvardIvy0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0565.5265.520.010.01
VermontAE0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
CaliforniaP120.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
FairfieldMAAC0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0332.0032.00-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0312.5012.50-0.02-0.02
RiderMAAC0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
UMass LowellAE0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
VCUA100.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Appalachian St.SB0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Boise St.MWC0.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
MarylandB100.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
San FranciscoWCC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Southern UtahBSky0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.030.0340.7440.74-0.00-0.00
Florida St.ACC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
George MasonA100.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
GonzagaWCC0.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
HofstraCAA0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
IonaMAAC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
Murray St.OVC0.030.0382.7682.760.020.02
New HampshireAE0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
RadfordBSth0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
WyomingMWC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
FurmanSC0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
High PointBSth0.020.0240.7440.74-0.00-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.020.029.689.68-0.02-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.020.0215.6215.62-0.02-0.02
MaristMAAC0.020.0219.3519.35-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
PittsburghACC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01