Montana

Conference:	BSky
Expected RPI:	76.0
Current RPI:	76
Expected SOS:	251
Current SOS:	251
Current Record:	24-7
Expected Record:	24-7
Current Conf Record:	19-2
Expected Conf Record:	19-2
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	8-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	16-0
Current OOC Record:	5-5
Expected OOC Record:	5-5
Expected OOC RPI:	176
Expected OOC SOS:	239

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
24-7	76.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Montana.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-13	Pittsburgh (217.0)	ACC	A	78-83	W	100%
11-15	Penn St. (77.0)	B10	A	70-57	L	0%
11-20	Oral Roberts (255.0)	Sum	N	69-64	W	100%
11-21	UC Santa Barbara (127.0)	BW	N	80-73	L	0%
11-29	Stanford (86.0)	P12	A	70-54	L	0%
12-3	Cal St. Northridge (340.0)	BW	H	86-68	W	100%
12-9	Georgia St. (120.0)	SB	A	71-68	L	0%
12-17	UC Riverside (300.0)	BW	H	77-61	W	100%
12-19	UC Irvine (119.0)	BW	H	86-68	W	100%
12-22	Washington (71.0)	P12	A	66-63	L	0%
12-28	Northern Arizona (310.0)	BSky	A	69-87	W	100%
12-30	Southern Utah (252.0)	BSky	A	49-79	W	100%
1-4	North Dakota (221.0)	BSky	H	109-79	W	100%
1-6	Northern Colorado (110.0)	BSky	H	89-80	W	100%
1-11	Sacramento St. (309.0)	BSky	A	66-78	W	100%
1-13	Portland St. (170.0)	BSky	A	89-92	W	100%
1-20	Montana St. (283.0)	BSky	A	52-67	W	100%
1-25	Southern Utah (252.0)	BSky	H	71-47	W	100%
1-27	Northern Arizona (310.0)	BSky	H	82-64	W	100%
2-1	Northern Colorado (110.0)	BSky	A	79-88	W	100%
2-3	North Dakota (221.0)	BSky	A	67-72	W	100%
2-8	Portland St. (170.0)	BSky	H	80-60	W	100%
2-10	Sacramento St. (309.0)	BSky	H	71-69	W	100%
2-15	Eastern Washington (122.0)	BSky	A	74-65	L	0%
2-17	Idaho (133.0)	BSky	A	79-77	L	0%
2-24	Montana St. (283.0)	BSky	H	90-63	W	100%
3-1	Weber St. (162.0)	BSky	H	75-57	W	100%
3-3	Idaho St. (268.0)	BSky	H	75-64	W	100%
3-8	North Dakota (221.0)	BSky	N	84-76	W	100%
3-9	Northern Colorado (110.0)	BSky	N	91-89	W	100%
3-10	Eastern Washington (122.0)	BSky	N	82-65	W	100%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Montana's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Montana's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Montana.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Montana	BSky	26.46	26.46	82.96	82.96	17.44	17.44
Northern Colorado	BSky	5.68	5.68	67.86	67.86	2.03	2.03
North Dakota	BSky	5.64	5.64	37.04	37.04	-1.46	-1.46
Eastern Washington	BSky	4.35	4.35	56.67	56.67	0.58	0.58
Montana St.	BSky	4.22	4.22	39.29	39.29	-0.90	-0.90
Portland St.	BSky	4.14	4.14	60.71	60.71	0.89	0.89
Sacramento St.	BSky	4.09	4.09	17.86	17.86	-2.63	-2.63
Southern Utah	BSky	4.09	4.09	39.29	39.29	-0.88	-0.88
Northern Arizona	BSky	4.08	4.08	14.29	14.29	-2.92	-2.92
Idaho St.	BSky	2.66	2.66	44.44	44.44	-0.30	-0.30
Idaho	BSky	2.65	2.65	67.86	67.86	0.95	0.95
Weber St.	BSky	2.63	2.63	62.96	62.96	0.68	0.68
Cal St. Northridge	BW	1.93	1.93	14.81	14.81	-1.36	-1.36
UC Santa Barbara	BW	1.93	1.93	68.97	68.97	0.73	0.73
UC Irvine	BW	1.89	1.89	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
UC Riverside	BW	1.83	1.83	25.00	25.00	-0.91	-0.91
Stanford	P12	1.77	1.77	53.12	53.12	0.11	0.11
Washington	P12	1.71	1.71	61.29	61.29	0.39	0.39
Penn St.	B10	1.67	1.67	60.61	60.61	0.35	0.35
Pittsburgh	ACC	1.66	1.66	25.81	25.81	-0.80	-0.80
Georgia St.	SB	1.66	1.66	67.74	67.74	0.59	0.59
Oral Roberts	Sum	1.64	1.64	29.63	29.63	-0.67	-0.67
UC Davis	BW	0.48	0.48	66.67	66.67	0.16	0.16
Hawaii	BW	0.32	0.32	53.57	53.57	0.02	0.02
Cal Poly	BW	0.29	0.29	24.14	24.14	-0.15	-0.15
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.29	0.29	62.07	62.07	0.07	0.07
Long Beach St.	BW	0.29	0.29	41.94	41.94	-0.05	-0.05
Denver	Sum	0.27	0.27	46.43	46.43	-0.02	-0.02
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.25	0.25	41.38	41.38	-0.04	-0.04
Pepperdine	WCC	0.24	0.24	16.13	16.13	-0.17	-0.17
South Dakota	Sum	0.24	0.24	73.33	73.33	0.11	0.11
California	P12	0.23	0.23	25.81	25.81	-0.11	-0.11
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.22	0.22	24.14	24.14	-0.11	-0.11
UNLV	MWC	0.21	0.21	60.61	60.61	0.04	0.04
Arizona St.	P12	0.18	0.18	64.52	64.52	0.05	0.05
Utah Valley	WAC	0.17	0.17	65.52	65.52	0.05	0.05
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.16	0.16	80.00	80.00	0.10	0.10
Utah St.	MWC	0.16	0.16	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Troy	SB	0.16	0.16	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
Washington St.	P12	0.16	0.16	38.71	38.71	-0.04	-0.04
San Francisco	WCC	0.16	0.16	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.15	0.15	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Colorado	P12	0.15	0.15	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.14	0.14	33.33	33.33	-0.05	-0.05
Santa Clara	WCC	0.14	0.14	34.48	34.48	-0.04	-0.04
Seattle	WAC	0.13	0.13	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Oregon	P12	0.13	0.13	64.71	64.71	0.04	0.04
Wyoming	MWC	0.13	0.13	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Nebraska	B10	0.13	0.13	68.75	68.75	0.05	0.05
Arizona	P12	0.13	0.13	79.41	79.41	0.08	0.08
Utah	P12	0.13	0.13	63.33	63.33	0.03	0.03
UCLA	P12	0.12	0.12	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Fresno St.	MWC	0.11	0.11	63.33	63.33	0.03	0.03
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.11	0.11	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	0.11	0.11	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
Boise St.	MWC	0.11	0.11	73.33	73.33	0.05	0.05
Central Michigan	MAC	0.11	0.11	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Portland	WCC	0.11	0.11	24.14	24.14	-0.06	-0.06
Kansas St.	B12	0.11	0.11	66.67	66.67	0.04	0.04
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.11	0.11	20.00	20.00	-0.06	-0.06
Binghamton	AE	0.11	0.11	31.03	31.03	-0.04	-0.04
Gonzaga	WCC	0.11	0.11	88.24	88.24	0.08	0.08
Duke	ACC	0.10	0.10	78.79	78.79	0.06	0.06
Iowa	B10	0.10	0.10	42.42	42.42	-0.02	-0.02
USC	P12	0.10	0.10	67.65	67.65	0.04	0.04
Ohio St.	B10	0.10	0.10	75.00	75.00	0.05	0.05
San Jose St.	MWC	0.08	0.08	10.34	10.34	-0.07	-0.07
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.08	0.08	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Creighton	BE	0.08	0.08	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
San Diego	WCC	0.08	0.08	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Little Rock	SB	0.08	0.08	20.00	20.00	-0.05	-0.05
Saint Mary's	WCC	0.08	0.08	84.85	84.85	0.05	0.05
Southern Miss	CUSA	0.08	0.08	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Michigan St.	B10	0.08	0.08	87.88	87.88	0.06	0.06
Georgia Southern	SB	0.08	0.08	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
UT Arlington	SB	0.08	0.08	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Northwestern	B10	0.07	0.07	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
BYU	WCC	0.06	0.06	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Fort Wayne	Sum	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Western Illinois	Sum	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Butler	BE	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Hampton	MEAC	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Jacksonville	ASun	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Milwaukee	Horz	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
San Diego St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
South Florida	Amer	0.05	0.05	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
George Mason	A10	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Minnesota	B10	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Nevada	MWC	0.05	0.05	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Pacific	WCC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Michigan	B10	0.05	0.05	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Texas A&M	SEC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Arkansas St.	SB	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Louisville	ACC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.05	0.05	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Notre Dame	ACC	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
South Alabama	SB	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Syracuse	ACC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Texas St.	SB	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Kansas	B12	0.05	0.05	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
North Carolina	ACC	0.05	0.05	71.43	71.43	0.02	0.02
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Rider	MAAC	0.05	0.05	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Maryland	B10	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Purdue	B10	0.05	0.05	82.35	82.35	0.03	0.03
Arkansas	SEC	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Bradley	MVC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Oakland	Horz	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Tulsa	Amer	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Valparaiso	MVC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Western Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.03	0.03	9.68	9.68	-0.02	-0.02
Appalachian St.	SB	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Belmont	OVC	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Boston College	ACC	0.03	0.03	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Chattanooga	SC	0.03	0.03	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Clemson	ACC	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Coastal Carolina	SB	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Dayton	A10	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	6.67	6.67	-0.02	-0.02
Duquesne	A10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Florida St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
High Point	BSth	0.03	0.03	40.74	40.74	-0.00	-0.00
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Lehigh	Pat	0.03	0.03	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Liberty	BSth	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Massachusetts	A10	0.03	0.03	39.39	39.39	-0.01	-0.01
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	32.00	32.00	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Navy	Pat	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Providence	BE	0.03	0.03	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Rice	CUSA	0.03	0.03	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
Towson	CAA	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Tulane	Amer	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Virginia	ACC	0.03	0.03	93.94	93.94	0.02	0.02
Wake Forest	ACC	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
West Virginia	B12	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Florida	SEC	0.02	0.02	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.02	0.02	83.33	83.33	0.02	0.02
Northeastern	CAA	0.02	0.02	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.02	0.02	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Campbell	BSth	0.02	0.02	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Columbia	Ivy	0.02	0.02	26.92	26.92	-0.01	-0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	15.62	15.62	-0.02	-0.02
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.02	0.02	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
George Washington	A10	0.02	0.02	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Illinois	B10	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Indiana	B10	0.02	0.02	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Rutgers	B10	0.02	0.02	42.42	42.42	-0.00	-0.00
Wisconsin	B10	0.02	0.02	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00