live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Mar 11, 2018.


Nebraska

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:56.0
Current RPI:56
Expected SOS:95
Current SOS:95
Current Record:22-10
Expected Record:22-10
Current Conf Record:13-6
Expected Conf Record:13-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:10-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-0
Current OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC RPI:158
Expected OOC SOS:274



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-1056.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Nebraska.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Eastern Illinois (262.0)OVCH72-68W100%0.0
11-13North Texas (235.0)CUSAH86-67W100%0.0
11-16St. John's (92.0)BEA79-56L0%0.0
11-19North Dakota (221.0)BSkyH92-70W100%0.0
11-23UCF (84.0)AmerN68-59L0%0.0
11-24Marist (324.0)MAACN59-84W100%0.0
11-26Long Beach St. (191.0)BWN85-80W100%0.0
11-29Boston College (96.0)ACCH71-62W100%0.0
12-3Michigan St. (14.0)B10A86-57L0%0.0
12-5Minnesota (171.0)B10H78-68W100%0.0
12-9Creighton (44.0)BEA75-65L0%0.0
12-16Kansas (5.0)B12H72-73L0%0.0
12-20UTSA (187.0)CUSAH104-94W100%0.0
12-22Delaware St. (351.0)MEACH85-68W100%0.0
12-29Stetson (325.0)ASunH71-62W100%0.0
1-2Northwestern (168.0)B10A55-70W100%0.0
1-6Purdue (9.0)B10A74-62L0%0.0
1-9Wisconsin (114.0)B10H63-59W100%0.0
1-12Penn St. (77.0)B10A76-74L0%0.0
1-15Illinois (181.0)B10H64-63W100%0.0
1-18Michigan (12.0)B10H72-52W100%0.0
1-22Ohio St. (20.0)B10A64-59L0%0.0
1-24Rutgers (203.0)B10A54-60W100%0.0
1-27Iowa (157.0)B10H98-84W100%0.0
1-29Wisconsin (114.0)B10A63-74W100%0.0
2-6Minnesota (171.0)B10A85-91W100%0.0
2-10Rutgers (203.0)B10H67-55W100%0.0
2-13Maryland (74.0)B10H70-66W100%0.0
2-18Illinois (181.0)B10A72-66L0%0.0
2-20Indiana (125.0)B10H66-57W100%0.0
2-25Penn St. (77.0)B10H76-64W100%0.0
3-2Michigan (12.0)B10N58-77L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Nebraska's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Nebraska's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Nebraska.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
NebraskaB1026.0726.0769.3569.3510.0910.09
RutgersB103.753.7545.1645.16-0.36-0.36
MichiganB103.733.7381.2581.252.332.33
Penn St.B103.713.7162.5062.500.930.93
WisconsinB103.703.7048.3948.39-0.12-0.12
IllinoisB103.703.7041.3841.38-0.64-0.64
MinnesotaB103.683.6850.0050.000.000.00
PurdueB102.352.3581.8281.821.501.50
Michigan St.B102.312.3187.5087.501.731.73
IowaB102.282.2843.7543.75-0.29-0.29
NorthwesternB102.282.2846.6746.67-0.15-0.15
Ohio St.B102.232.2374.1974.191.081.08
IndianaB102.212.2153.3353.330.150.15
MarylandB102.202.2060.0060.000.440.44
CreightonBE1.661.6663.3363.330.440.44
St. John'sBE1.641.6445.1645.16-0.16-0.16
UCFAmer1.611.6158.0658.060.260.26
North TexasCUSA1.611.6144.8344.83-0.17-0.17
UTSACUSA1.611.6155.1755.170.170.17
StetsonASun1.611.6129.6329.63-0.66-0.66
MaristMAAC1.591.5920.0020.00-0.95-0.95
North DakotaBSky1.591.5934.4834.48-0.49-0.49
Long Beach St.BW1.591.5943.3343.33-0.21-0.21
Boston CollegeACC1.561.5657.5857.580.240.24
Delaware St.MEAC1.561.566.906.90-1.35-1.35
Eastern IllinoisOVC1.561.5635.7135.71-0.45-0.45
KansasB121.561.5678.7978.790.900.90
DePaulBE0.220.2235.4835.48-0.07-0.07
MarquetteBE0.200.2059.3859.380.040.04
ProvidenceBE0.200.2061.7661.760.050.05
ButlerBE0.170.1760.6160.610.040.04
Seton HallBE0.170.1765.6265.620.050.05
XavierBE0.170.1784.8584.850.120.12
GeorgetownBE0.150.1550.0050.000.000.00
West VirginiaB120.140.1470.5970.590.060.06
Austin PeayOVC0.130.1353.3353.330.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.130.1333.3333.33-0.04-0.04
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.130.1330.0030.00-0.05-0.05
USC UpstateASun0.130.1310.7110.71-0.10-0.10
MarshallCUSA0.130.1369.7069.700.050.05
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.130.1332.1432.14-0.05-0.05
Tennessee St.OVC0.130.1346.4346.43-0.01-0.01
North FloridaASun0.130.1336.6736.67-0.03-0.03
MissouriSEC0.120.1261.2961.290.030.03
MontanaBSky0.120.1277.4277.420.070.07
Southern MissCUSA0.120.1240.0040.00-0.02-0.02
OklahomaB120.120.1258.0658.060.020.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.120.1269.7069.700.050.05
East CarolinaAmer0.120.1233.3333.33-0.04-0.04
South Carolina St.MEAC0.120.1226.6726.67-0.06-0.06
Coppin St.MEAC0.120.1215.6215.62-0.08-0.08
Chicago St.WAC0.120.123.333.33-0.11-0.11
BaylorB120.120.1254.8454.840.010.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.120.1237.9337.93-0.03-0.03
UCLAP120.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
North CarolinaACC0.120.1271.4371.430.050.05
LipscombASun0.110.1168.9768.970.040.04
FIUCUSA0.110.1137.9337.93-0.03-0.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.100.1027.5927.59-0.05-0.05
Louisiana TechCUSA0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.100.1017.2417.24-0.07-0.07
NJITASun0.100.1042.8642.86-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
Green BayHorz0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
South FloridaAmer0.100.1031.2531.25-0.04-0.04
JacksonvilleASun0.100.1037.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Oregon St.P120.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
NiagaraMAAC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
VillanovaBE0.100.1088.2488.240.080.08
Southern UtahBSky0.100.1036.6736.67-0.03-0.03
FairfieldMAAC0.100.1051.5251.520.000.00
SouthernSWAC0.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.100.1040.6240.62-0.02-0.02
RiderMAAC0.100.1070.9770.970.040.04
UC RiversideBW0.100.1024.1424.14-0.05-0.05
DukeACC0.100.1078.7978.790.060.06
Stony BrookAE0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
TempleAmer0.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
PittsburghACC0.090.0925.0025.00-0.05-0.05
Notre DameACC0.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.090.099.689.68-0.08-0.08
Miami FLACC0.090.0970.9770.970.040.04
Oral RobertsSum0.090.0928.5728.57-0.04-0.04
Central ConnecticutNEC0.090.0943.7543.75-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
Texas TechB120.090.0972.7372.730.040.04
Florida St.ACC0.090.0964.5264.520.030.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
TexasB120.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Fort WayneSum0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.080.0882.7682.760.050.05
Montana St.BSky0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
HawaiiBW0.080.0853.5753.570.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.080.0816.6716.67-0.05-0.05
UABCUSA0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.080.0888.2488.240.060.06
Cal St. FullertonBW0.080.0862.0762.070.020.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
CampbellBSth0.070.0746.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.070.0755.8855.880.010.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.070.0780.0080.000.040.04
Sacred HeartNEC0.070.0730.0030.00-0.03-0.03
StanfordP120.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
UMass LowellAE0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
YaleIvy0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
ConnecticutAmer0.070.0743.7543.75-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
BinghamtonAE0.070.0731.0331.03-0.03-0.03
LouisvilleACC0.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.070.0732.3532.35-0.03-0.03
ClemsonACC0.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
HartfordAE0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
VirginiaACC0.070.0793.9493.940.060.06
Iowa St.B120.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.070.0726.9226.92-0.03-0.03
Kansas St.B120.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
Oklahoma St.B120.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.060.0628.5728.57-0.02-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
BelmontOVC0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
BradleyMVC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0524.2424.24-0.03-0.03
IdahoBSky0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
Idaho St.BSky0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
TroySB0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0565.5265.520.020.02
Weber St.BSky0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
HowardMEAC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
UMBCAE0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
TulsaAmer0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
ArmyPat0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
BrownIvy0.050.0538.4638.46-0.01-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
SienaMAAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
UC DavisBW0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
UC IrvineBW0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
UNLVMWC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
IUPUIHorz0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
The CitadelSC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
HarvardIvy0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
HoustonAmer0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
MassachusettsA100.050.0539.3939.39-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
SMUAmer0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.Amer0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
William & MaryCAA0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
ArizonaP120.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
ColgatePat0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
La SalleA100.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoMVC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0544.1244.12-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.050.059.689.68-0.04-0.04
FordhamA100.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
OaklandHorz0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
DetroitHorz0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
George MasonA100.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
LSUSEC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
TCUB120.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
VCUA100.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0322.2222.22-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
DelawareCAA0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0332.0032.00-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
PennIvy0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Portland St.BSky0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0330.7730.77-0.01-0.01
Texas St.SB0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
LehighPat0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Loyola MDPat0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
OhioMAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.030.0316.1316.13-0.02-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
MercerSC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
RadfordBSth0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
TulaneAmer0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.020.0280.6580.650.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.020.0223.0823.08-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.020.0270.5970.590.010.01
MaineAE0.020.0213.3313.33-0.02-0.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
ToledoMAC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
WashingtonP120.020.0262.5062.500.010.01