Niagara

Conference:	MAAC
Expected RPI:	163.0
Current RPI:	163
Expected SOS:	230
Current SOS:	230
Current Record:	19-13
Expected Record:	19-13
Current Conf Record:	12-7
Expected Conf Record:	12-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	5-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	13-3
Current OOC Record:	7-6
Expected OOC Record:	7-6
Expected OOC RPI:	173
Expected OOC SOS:	225

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
19-13	163.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Niagara.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	St. Bonaventure (24.0)	A10	A	75-77	W	100%
11-15	Minnesota (171.0)	B10	A	107-81	L	0%
11-19	Massachusetts (240.0)	A10	A	101-76	L	0%
11-21	BYU (67.0)	WCC	A	95-88	L	0%
11-24	Alabama A&M (350.0)	SWAC	H	96-74	W	100%
11-25	UT Arlington (108.0)	SB	H	90-95	L	0%
11-27	Army (280.0)	Pat	H	77-71	W	100%
11-29	Buffalo (25.0)	MAC	H	87-106	L	0%
12-5	New Hampshire (312.0)	AE	A	70-78	W	100%
12-10	St. Francis PA (178.0)	NEC	H	87-93	L	0%
12-16	Norfolk St. (266.0)	MEAC	A	82-85	W	100%
12-19	Cleveland St. (282.0)	Horz	H	79-77	W	100%
12-23	Cornell (248.0)	Ivy	A	86-89	W	100%
12-29	Iona (107.0)	MAAC	H	93-98	L	0%
12-31	Rider (69.0)	MAAC	H	76-99	L	0%
1-5	Siena (299.0)	MAAC	A	76-84	W	100%
1-7	Marist (324.0)	MAAC	A	70-86	W	100%
1-12	Monmouth (199.0)	MAAC	H	78-77	W	100%
1-14	Saint Peter's (251.0)	MAAC	H	73-70	W	100%
1-18	Quinnipiac (277.0)	MAAC	A	73-81	W	100%
1-20	Fairfield (180.0)	MAAC	A	104-85	L	0%
1-24	Manhattan (228.0)	MAAC	H	72-63	W	100%
1-27	Canisius (124.0)	MAAC	A	89-105	W	100%
2-2	Saint Peter's (251.0)	MAAC	A	58-52	L	0%
2-4	Monmouth (199.0)	MAAC	A	91-96	W	100%
2-8	Quinnipiac (277.0)	MAAC	H	95-76	W	100%
2-10	Fairfield (180.0)	MAAC	H	95-83	W	100%
2-16	Iona (107.0)	MAAC	A	84-85	W	100%
2-18	Manhattan (228.0)	MAAC	A	82-72	L	0%
2-21	Canisius (124.0)	MAAC	H	88-95	L	0%
2-23	Marist (324.0)	MAAC	H	100-76	W	100%
3-3	Fairfield (180.0)	MAAC	N	77-90	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Niagara's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Niagara's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Niagara.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Niagara	MAAC	26.28	26.28	59.88	59.88	5.19	5.19
Fairfield	MAAC	5.55	5.55	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Iona	MAAC	4.03	4.03	61.29	61.29	0.91	0.91
Quinnipiac	MAAC	4.03	4.03	38.71	38.71	-0.91	-0.91
Marist	MAAC	3.98	3.98	20.69	20.69	-2.33	-2.33
Saint Peter's	MAAC	3.96	3.96	43.33	43.33	-0.53	-0.53
Canisius	MAAC	3.93	3.93	66.67	66.67	1.31	1.31
Monmouth	MAAC	3.90	3.90	37.93	37.93	-0.94	-0.94
Manhattan	MAAC	3.90	3.90	44.83	44.83	-0.40	-0.40
Siena	MAAC	2.49	2.49	25.81	25.81	-1.20	-1.20
Rider	MAAC	2.46	2.46	70.00	70.00	0.99	0.99
St. Bonaventure	A10	1.68	1.68	80.65	80.65	1.03	1.03
Massachusetts	A10	1.68	1.68	37.50	37.50	-0.42	-0.42
Army	Pat	1.66	1.66	42.86	42.86	-0.24	-0.24
Buffalo	MAC	1.64	1.64	75.00	75.00	0.82	0.82
New Hampshire	AE	1.63	1.63	28.57	28.57	-0.70	-0.70
Minnesota	B10	1.61	1.61	45.16	45.16	-0.16	-0.16
BYU	WCC	1.61	1.61	69.70	69.70	0.63	0.63
Alabama A&M	SWAC	1.59	1.59	10.00	10.00	-1.27	-1.27
UT Arlington	SB	1.59	1.59	59.38	59.38	0.30	0.30
Cleveland St.	Horz	1.56	1.56	33.33	33.33	-0.52	-0.52
Cornell	Ivy	1.56	1.56	42.31	42.31	-0.24	-0.24
Norfolk St.	MEAC	1.56	1.56	44.83	44.83	-0.16	-0.16
St. Francis PA	NEC	1.56	1.56	55.56	55.56	0.17	0.17
Holy Cross	Pat	0.23	0.23	38.71	38.71	-0.05	-0.05
Albany	AE	0.22	0.22	67.74	67.74	0.08	0.08
Lehigh	Pat	0.21	0.21	51.72	51.72	0.01	0.01
Robert Morris	NEC	0.20	0.20	48.48	48.48	-0.01	-0.01
Harvard	Ivy	0.19	0.19	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.18	0.18	37.93	37.93	-0.04	-0.04
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.18	0.18	23.08	23.08	-0.10	-0.10
Yale	Ivy	0.18	0.18	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.18	0.18	37.93	37.93	-0.04	-0.04
Penn	Ivy	0.18	0.18	74.19	74.19	0.09	0.09
Lafayette	Pat	0.18	0.18	30.00	30.00	-0.07	-0.07
Hofstra	CAA	0.18	0.18	60.00	60.00	0.04	0.04
LIU Brooklyn	NEC	0.18	0.18	51.52	51.52	0.01	0.01
UMass Lowell	AE	0.16	0.16	37.93	37.93	-0.04	-0.04
Brown	Ivy	0.16	0.16	38.46	38.46	-0.04	-0.04
Hartford	AE	0.15	0.15	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Wagner	NEC	0.15	0.15	70.00	70.00	0.06	0.06
Loyola MD	Pat	0.15	0.15	26.67	26.67	-0.07	-0.07
Vermont	AE	0.15	0.15	78.79	78.79	0.09	0.09
Seton Hall	BE	0.15	0.15	65.62	65.62	0.05	0.05
La Salle	A10	0.14	0.14	40.62	40.62	-0.03	-0.03
Rhode Island	A10	0.14	0.14	78.12	78.12	0.08	0.08
Wright St.	Horz	0.14	0.14	71.88	71.88	0.06	0.06
Colgate	Pat	0.13	0.13	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Columbia	Ivy	0.13	0.13	26.92	26.92	-0.06	-0.06
Princeton	Ivy	0.13	0.13	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
Bucknell	Pat	0.13	0.13	73.53	73.53	0.06	0.06
Maine	AE	0.12	0.12	13.33	13.33	-0.09	-0.09
Syracuse	ACC	0.12	0.12	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
Kent St.	MAC	0.12	0.12	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia St.	SB	0.12	0.12	68.75	68.75	0.04	0.04
Ohio	MAC	0.12	0.12	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
Purdue	B10	0.12	0.12	82.35	82.35	0.08	0.08
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.12	0.12	20.00	20.00	-0.07	-0.07
Northern Kentucky	Horz	0.12	0.12	68.97	68.97	0.04	0.04
Binghamton	AE	0.11	0.11	31.03	31.03	-0.04	-0.04
American	Pat	0.11	0.11	20.00	20.00	-0.07	-0.07
Stony Brook	AE	0.11	0.11	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Bryant	NEC	0.11	0.11	9.68	9.68	-0.09	-0.09
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.10	0.10	30.00	30.00	-0.04	-0.04
Hampton	MEAC	0.10	0.10	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Duquesne	A10	0.10	0.10	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
George Washington	A10	0.10	0.10	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Toledo	MAC	0.10	0.10	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.10	0.10	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Nebraska	B10	0.10	0.10	68.75	68.75	0.04	0.04
Fordham	A10	0.10	0.10	29.03	29.03	-0.04	-0.04
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.10	0.10	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Elon	CAA	0.10	0.10	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Northwestern	B10	0.10	0.10	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.10	0.10	78.12	78.12	0.05	0.05
Western Carolina	SC	0.10	0.10	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Davidson	A10	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Saint Mary's	WCC	0.10	0.10	84.85	84.85	0.07	0.07
Alabama	SEC	0.10	0.10	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.10	0.10	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Texas St.	SB	0.10	0.10	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
George Mason	A10	0.10	0.10	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
San Diego	WCC	0.09	0.09	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Pacific	WCC	0.09	0.09	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Coastal Carolina	SB	0.09	0.09	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Boston University	Pat	0.08	0.08	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
UMBC	AE	0.08	0.08	67.74	67.74	0.03	0.03
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.08	0.08	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.08	0.08	16.67	16.67	-0.05	-0.05
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Air Force	MWC	0.08	0.08	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.07	0.07	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Wake Forest	ACC	0.07	0.07	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
San Francisco	WCC	0.07	0.07	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Bowling Green	MAC	0.07	0.07	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.07	0.07	12.50	12.50	-0.06	-0.06
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.07	0.07	44.12	44.12	-0.01	-0.01
Providence	BE	0.07	0.07	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
Drexel	CAA	0.07	0.07	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Richmond	A10	0.07	0.07	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Saint Louis	A10	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
South Alabama	SB	0.07	0.07	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Rutgers	B10	0.07	0.07	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Dayton	A10	0.07	0.07	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Appalachian St.	SB	0.07	0.07	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.07	0.07	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Houston	Amer	0.07	0.07	78.79	78.79	0.04	0.04
Jacksonville	ASun	0.07	0.07	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.07	0.07	80.65	80.65	0.04	0.04
NJIT	ASun	0.07	0.07	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Akron	MAC	0.07	0.07	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Weber St.	BSky	0.07	0.07	60.71	60.71	0.02	0.02
Western Michigan	MAC	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.07	0.07	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Gonzaga	WCC	0.07	0.07	88.24	88.24	0.05	0.05
Oakland	Horz	0.07	0.07	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Longwood	BSth	0.06	0.06	13.33	13.33	-0.04	-0.04
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Auburn	SEC	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Navy	Pat	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Northeastern	CAA	0.05	0.05	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Delaware	CAA	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Louisville	ACC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.02	-0.02
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	25.81	25.81	-0.02	-0.02
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Connecticut	Amer	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Kentucky	SEC	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Missouri St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Murray St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	82.76	82.76	0.03	0.03
Oregon St.	P12	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Southern	SWAC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Stetson	ASun	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
The Citadel	SC	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
Towson	CAA	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Tulsa	Amer	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
UMKC	WAC	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
UNC Asheville	BSth	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.05	0.05	93.94	93.94	0.04	0.04
West Virginia	B12	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Utah St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Little Rock	SB	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Michigan	B10	0.05	0.05	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Penn St.	B10	0.05	0.05	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	15.62	15.62	-0.03	-0.03
UAB	CUSA	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Evansville	MVC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.05	0.05	10.71	10.71	-0.04	-0.04
Indiana	B10	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Iowa	B10	0.05	0.05	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Maryland	B10	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
VCU	A10	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Michigan St.	B10	0.05	0.05	87.88	87.88	0.04	0.04
Central Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Colorado	P12	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Georgia Southern	SB	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Liberty	BSth	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.05	0.05	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Miami OH	MAC	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
St. John's	BE	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Arkansas St.	SB	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Cincinnati	Amer	0.05	0.05	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
Detroit	Horz	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Green Bay	Horz	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
IUPUI	Horz	0.05	0.05	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
Milwaukee	Horz	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Pepperdine	WCC	0.05	0.05	16.13	16.13	-0.03	-0.03
Portland	WCC	0.05	0.05	24.14	24.14	-0.02	-0.02
Santa Clara	WCC	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Duke	ACC	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
Florida	SEC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Furman	SC	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Texas	B12	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	6.67	6.67	-0.02	-0.02
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.03	0.03	24.24	24.24	-0.01	-0.01
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.03	0.03	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola Chicago	MVC	0.03	0.03	84.38	84.38	0.02	0.02
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Austin Peay	OVC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
DePaul	BE	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Samford	SC	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Miss	CUSA	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
UC Irvine	BW	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Xavier	BE	0.03	0.03	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02
Arkansas	SEC	0.02	0.02	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
College of Charleston	CAA	0.02	0.02	77.42	77.42	0.01	0.01
Drake	MVC	0.02	0.02	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0.02	0.02	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois	B10	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Memphis	Amer	0.02	0.02	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.02	0.02	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.02	0.02	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.02	0.02	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
TCU	B12	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
USC Upstate	ASun	0.02	0.02	10.71	10.71	-0.02	-0.02
Wisconsin	B10	0.02	0.02	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Ball St.	MAC	0.02	0.02	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Cal Poly	BW	0.02	0.02	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
Creighton	BE	0.02	0.02	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.02	0.02	58.62	58.62	0.00	0.00
Georgia	SEC	0.02	0.02	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.02	0.02	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
North Texas	CUSA	0.02	0.02	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.02	0.02	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Rice	CUSA	0.02	0.02	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
South Carolina	SEC	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.02	0.02	80.00	80.00	0.01	0.01
Texas A&M	SEC	0.02	0.02	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Troy	SB	0.02	0.02	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.02	0.02	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
East Carolina	Amer	0.02	0.02	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Idaho St.	BSky	0.02	0.02	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Illinois St.	MVC	0.02	0.02	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Utah	P12	0.02	0.02	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Utah Valley	WAC	0.02	0.02	65.52	65.52	0.01	0.01