live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Mar 11, 2018.


Pittsburgh

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:217.0
Current RPI:217
Expected SOS:31
Current SOS:31
Current Record:8-24
Expected Record:8-24
Current Conf Record:0-19
Expected Conf Record:0-19
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-7
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-9
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC RPI:159
Expected OOC SOS:133



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
8-24217.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Pittsburgh.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Navy (200.0)PatA71-62L0%0.0
11-13Montana (76.0)BSkyH78-83L0%0.0
11-15UC Santa Barbara (127.0)BWH70-62W100%0.0
11-20Penn St. (77.0)B10N54-85L0%0.0
11-21Oklahoma St. (88.0)B12N67-73L0%0.0
11-25Lehigh (214.0)PatH80-68W100%0.0
11-28High Point (273.0)BSthH71-63W100%0.0
12-1Duquesne (259.0)A10N64-76W100%0.0
12-5Mount St. Mary's (225.0)NECH82-78W100%0.0
12-9West Virginia (27.0)B12H60-69L0%0.0
12-16McNeese St. (297.0)SlndH72-51W100%0.0
12-19Delaware St. (351.0)MEACH74-68W100%0.0
12-22Towson (153.0)CAAH63-59W100%0.0
12-30Miami FL (28.0)ACCH53-67L0%0.0
1-2Louisville (38.0)ACCA77-51L0%0.0
1-6Virginia Tech (61.0)ACCA81-67L0%0.0
1-10Duke (7.0)ACCH52-87L0%0.0
1-13Georgia Tech (161.0)ACCH54-69L0%0.0
1-16Syracuse (45.0)ACCA59-45L0%0.0
1-20Duke (7.0)ACCA81-54L0%0.0
1-24North Carolina St. (64.0)ACCH68-72L0%0.0
1-27Syracuse (45.0)ACCH55-60L0%0.0
1-31Miami FL (28.0)ACCA69-57L0%0.0
2-3North Carolina (4.0)ACCA96-65L0%0.0
2-8Clemson (11.0)ACCA72-48L0%0.0
2-11Louisville (38.0)ACCH60-94L0%0.0
2-13Boston College (96.0)ACCH58-81L0%0.0
2-18Florida St. (54.0)ACCA88-75L0%0.0
2-21Wake Forest (160.0)ACCH57-63L0%0.0
2-24Virginia (1.0)ACCH37-66L0%0.0
2-28Notre Dame (70.0)ACCA73-56L0%0.0
3-6Notre Dame (70.0)ACCN67-64L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Pittsburgh's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Pittsburgh's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Pittsburgh.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
PittsburghACC26.0326.0317.5717.57-16.89-16.89
Notre DameACC3.733.7354.8454.840.360.36
DukeACC3.683.6877.4277.422.022.02
LouisvilleACC3.663.6658.0658.060.590.59
SyracuseACC3.653.6558.0658.060.590.59
Miami FLACC3.653.6568.9768.971.391.39
North CarolinaACC2.312.3170.5970.590.950.95
VirginiaACC2.282.2893.7593.752.002.00
Boston CollegeACC2.242.2454.5554.550.200.20
Virginia TechACC2.212.2164.5264.520.640.64
Florida St.ACC2.212.2163.3363.330.590.59
Wake ForestACC2.192.1933.3333.33-0.73-0.73
North Carolina St.ACC2.162.1664.5264.520.630.63
Georgia TechACC2.142.1438.7138.71-0.48-0.48
ClemsonACC2.142.1470.9770.970.900.90
NavyPat1.671.6760.0060.000.330.33
LehighPat1.661.6653.5753.570.120.12
Mount St. Mary'sNEC1.641.6455.1755.170.170.17
Oklahoma St.B121.631.6356.2556.250.200.20
West VirginiaB121.631.6369.7069.700.640.64
Penn St.B101.611.6160.6160.610.340.34
MontanaBSky1.611.6176.6776.670.860.86
DuquesneA101.591.5951.6151.610.050.05
UC Santa BarbaraBW1.591.5972.4172.410.710.71
Delaware St.MEAC1.591.596.906.90-1.37-1.37
High PointBSth1.561.5642.3142.31-0.24-0.24
McNeese St.Slnd1.561.5633.3333.33-0.52-0.52
TowsonCAA1.561.5655.1755.170.160.16
KansasB120.190.1979.4179.410.110.11
Boston UniversityPat0.180.1846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.180.1826.6726.67-0.08-0.08
ColgatePat0.170.1758.0658.060.030.03
St. Francis PANEC0.170.1757.1457.140.020.02
IndianaB100.170.1751.6151.610.010.01
AmericanPat0.150.1520.0020.00-0.09-0.09
Morgan St.MEAC0.150.1536.6736.67-0.04-0.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.150.1556.2556.250.020.02
DelawareCAA0.150.1538.7138.71-0.03-0.03
BryantNEC0.150.159.689.68-0.12-0.12
St. Francis NYNEC0.150.1537.9337.93-0.04-0.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.150.1515.6215.62-0.10-0.10
George WashingtonA100.150.1545.4545.45-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.140.1457.5857.580.020.02
Michigan St.B100.140.1487.8887.880.110.11
Texas TechB120.140.1472.7372.730.060.06
ArmyPat0.130.1341.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Holy CrossPat0.130.1338.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.130.1348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.130.1324.2424.24-0.07-0.07
BucknellPat0.130.1373.5373.530.060.06
TennesseeSEC0.130.1375.7675.760.060.06
La SalleA100.120.1240.6240.62-0.02-0.02
OklahomaB120.120.1258.0658.060.020.02
BaylorB120.120.1254.8454.840.010.01
Ohio St.B100.120.1275.0075.000.060.06
Houston BaptistSlnd0.110.1110.7110.71-0.09-0.09
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.110.1163.3363.330.030.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.110.1137.9337.93-0.03-0.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.110.1142.8642.86-0.02-0.02
William & MaryCAA0.110.1158.6258.620.020.02
PresbyterianBSth0.110.1127.5927.59-0.05-0.05
LafayettePat0.100.1030.0030.00-0.04-0.04
UC IrvineBW0.100.1048.4848.48-0.00-0.00
HawaiiBW0.100.1053.5753.570.010.01
ElonCAA0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Portland St.BSky0.100.1056.6756.670.010.01
FordhamA100.100.1029.0329.03-0.04-0.04
RichmondA100.100.1037.5037.50-0.02-0.02
FloridaSEC0.100.1062.5062.500.020.02
St. BonaventureA100.100.1078.1278.120.050.05
Texas A&MSEC0.100.1062.5062.500.020.02
NebraskaB100.090.0968.7568.750.040.04
George MasonA100.090.0948.4848.48-0.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.090.0970.5970.590.040.04
NorthwesternB100.090.0945.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.090.0941.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Kansas St.B120.090.0966.6766.670.030.03
MarylandB100.090.0958.0658.060.020.02
PurdueB100.090.0982.3582.350.060.06
TCUB120.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
LamarSlnd0.090.0953.5753.570.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.090.0913.3313.33-0.06-0.06
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
LibertyBSth0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
RadfordBSth0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.080.0877.4277.420.040.04
CampbellBSth0.080.0846.4346.43-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.080.0827.5927.59-0.04-0.04
Cal PolyBW0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
CharlotteCUSA0.080.0817.8617.86-0.05-0.05
PrincetonIvy0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.080.0814.2914.29-0.06-0.06
UC RiversideBW0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
PennIvy0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
HofstraCAA0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
Montana St.BSky0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
North FloridaASun0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.080.0816.6716.67-0.05-0.05
Western CarolinaSC0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
WoffordSC0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
North DakotaBSky0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Northern ColoradoBSky0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.070.0716.6716.67-0.05-0.05
SienaMAAC0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
South Carolina St.MEAC0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
DePaulBE0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.070.0724.1424.14-0.04-0.04
OaklandHorz0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
MinnesotaB100.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.070.0777.4277.420.040.04
Saint LouisA100.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.070.0728.5728.57-0.03-0.03
CornellIvy0.070.0740.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.070.0744.1244.12-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.070.0726.9226.92-0.03-0.03
Wichita St.Amer0.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
DavidsonA100.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
IowaB100.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.070.0723.0823.08-0.04-0.04
New OrleansSlnd0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.060.0660.7160.710.010.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.060.068.008.00-0.05-0.05
WinthropBSth0.060.0657.1457.140.010.01
HoustonAmer0.060.0678.7978.790.030.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.060.0680.6580.650.030.03
North TexasCUSA0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
USCP120.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
DrexelCAA0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
NortheasternCAA0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
UC DavisBW0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
UMBCAE0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
WagnerNEC0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
YaleIvy0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
OhioMAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
Southern UtahBSky0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
MaristMAAC0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
HamptonMEAC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
PepperdineWCC0.050.0516.1316.13-0.03-0.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
BinghamtonAE0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
DaytonA100.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
VMISC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
IllinoisB100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
RutgersB100.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0512.5012.50-0.04-0.04
Rhode IslandA100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
StanfordP120.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
TulaneAmer0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
AlbanyAE0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.050.0575.7675.760.020.02
Chicago St.WAC0.050.053.333.33-0.04-0.04
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
FurmanSC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
IonaMAAC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
LSUSEC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
MemphisAmer0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
Seton HallBE0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
South DakotaSum0.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
SouthernSWAC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0565.5265.520.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
MichiganB100.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0344.4444.44-0.00-0.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0312.5012.50-0.02-0.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0330.7730.77-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Fort WayneSum0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
HowardMEAC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
MarquetteBE0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
TroySB0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Coastal CarolinaSB0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
DenverSum0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
DrakeMVC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
IdahoBSky0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
LipscombASun0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
ArizonaP120.020.0279.4179.410.010.01
DetroitHorz0.020.0220.0020.00-0.01-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.020.0239.3939.39-0.01-0.01
MississippiSEC0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.020.0222.2222.22-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
SamfordSC0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
StetsonASun0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
UCLAP120.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
UMKCWAC0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
TulsaAmer0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
HartfordAE0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
MaineAE0.020.0213.3313.33-0.02-0.02
MissouriSEC0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
NJITASun0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.020.0261.7661.760.010.01
RiderMAAC0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
UCFAmer0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
PortlandWCC0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01