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Through games of Mar 11, 2018.

Purdue

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:9.0
Current RPI:9
Expected SOS:41
Current SOS:41
Current Record:28-6
Expected Record:28-6
Current Conf Record:17-4
Expected Conf Record:17-4
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:6-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:11-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC RPI:22
Expected OOC SOS:71


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
28-69.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Purdue.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10SIU Edwardsville (287.0)OVCH105-74W100%0.0
11-12Chicago St. (335.0)WACH111-42W100%0.0
11-14Marquette (58.0)BEA71-86W100%0.0
11-18Fairfield (180.0)MAACH106-64W100%0.0
11-22Tennessee (8.0)SECN75-78L0%0.0
11-23Western Kentucky (39.0)CUSAN77-73L0%0.0
11-24Arizona (13.0)P12N64-89W100%0.0
11-28Louisville (38.0)ACCH66-57W100%0.0
12-1Maryland (74.0)B10A75-80W100%0.0
12-3Northwestern (168.0)B10H74-69W100%0.0
12-7Valparaiso (188.0)MVCH80-50W100%0.0
12-10IUPUI (294.0)HorzH86-61W100%0.0
12-16Butler (41.0)BEN67-82W100%0.0
12-21Tennessee St. (189.0)OVCH97-48W100%0.0
12-30Lipscomb (101.0)ASunH98-66W100%0.0
1-3Rutgers (203.0)B10H82-51W100%0.0
1-6Nebraska (56.0)B10H74-62W100%0.0
1-9Michigan (12.0)B10A69-70W100%0.0
1-13Minnesota (171.0)B10A47-81W100%0.0
1-16Wisconsin (114.0)B10H78-50W100%0.0
1-20Iowa (157.0)B10A64-87W100%0.0
1-25Michigan (12.0)B10H92-88W100%0.0
1-28Indiana (125.0)B10A67-74W100%0.0
1-31Maryland (74.0)B10H75-67W100%0.0
2-3Rutgers (203.0)B10A76-78W100%0.0
2-7Ohio St. (20.0)B10H63-64L0%0.0
2-10Michigan St. (14.0)B10A68-65L0%0.0
2-15Wisconsin (114.0)B10A57-53L0%0.0
2-18Penn St. (77.0)B10H76-73W100%0.0
2-22Illinois (181.0)B10A86-93W100%0.0
2-25Minnesota (171.0)B10H84-60W100%0.0
3-2Rutgers (203.0)B10N82-75W100%0.0
3-3Penn St. (77.0)B10N78-70W100%0.0
3-4Michigan (12.0)B10N66-75L0%0.0

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Purdue's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Purdue's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Purdue.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.


Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
PurdueB1026.2326.2381.5881.5816.5616.56
MichiganB105.015.0183.8783.873.393.39
RutgersB104.984.9846.6746.67-0.33-0.33
WisconsinB103.603.6045.1645.16-0.35-0.35
MarylandB103.593.5962.0762.070.870.87
Penn St.B103.563.5665.6265.621.111.11
MinnesotaB103.533.5350.0050.000.000.00
NorthwesternB102.262.2646.6746.67-0.15-0.15
Michigan St.B102.242.2487.5087.501.681.68
IowaB102.242.2443.7543.75-0.28-0.28
NebraskaB102.212.2170.9770.970.930.93
Ohio St.B102.212.2174.1974.191.071.07
IndianaB102.152.1553.3353.330.140.14
IllinoisB102.122.1243.3343.33-0.28-0.28
Chicago St.WAC1.611.613.453.45-1.50-1.50
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC1.601.6031.0331.03-0.61-0.61
ButlerBE1.591.5962.5062.500.400.40
MarquetteBE1.581.5861.2961.290.360.36
Tennessee St.OVC1.541.5448.1548.15-0.06-0.06
LipscombASun1.521.5271.4371.430.650.65
ValparaisoMVC1.521.5244.8344.83-0.16-0.16
Western KentuckyCUSA1.521.5268.7568.750.570.57
TennesseeSEC1.501.5075.0075.000.750.75
IUPUIHorz1.501.5033.3333.33-0.50-0.50
LouisvilleACC1.491.4962.5062.500.370.37
ArizonaP121.471.4781.8281.820.940.94
FairfieldMAAC1.471.4753.1253.120.090.09
Seton HallBE0.230.2365.6265.620.070.07
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.200.2034.4834.48-0.06-0.06
DePaulBE0.180.1835.4835.48-0.05-0.05
VillanovaBE0.180.1888.2488.240.140.14
BelmontOVC0.170.1772.7372.730.080.08
JacksonvilleASun0.160.1637.9337.93-0.04-0.04
CreightonBE0.160.1664.5264.520.050.05
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.160.1637.9337.93-0.04-0.04
North CarolinaACC0.150.1571.4371.430.070.07
UCLAP120.150.1565.6265.620.050.05
Morehead St.OVC0.150.1522.2222.22-0.08-0.08
Tennessee TechOVC0.150.1554.8454.840.010.01
DrakeMVC0.140.1448.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.140.1432.3532.35-0.05-0.05
TexasB120.140.1457.5857.580.020.02
North FloridaASun0.140.1436.6736.67-0.04-0.04
Stony BrookAE0.140.1438.7138.71-0.03-0.03
ProvidenceBE0.140.1461.7661.760.030.03
XavierBE0.140.1484.8584.850.090.09
Florida St.ACC0.130.1364.5264.520.040.04
OaklandHorz0.130.1357.5857.580.020.02
StetsonASun0.120.1228.5728.57-0.05-0.05
Austin PeayOVC0.120.1253.3353.330.010.01
NJITASun0.120.1242.8642.86-0.02-0.02
DetroitHorz0.120.1220.0020.00-0.07-0.07
AlabamaSEC0.120.1255.8855.880.010.01
St. John'sBE0.110.1146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
VirginiaACC0.110.1193.9493.940.100.10
Alabama A&MSWAC0.110.119.689.68-0.09-0.09
LSUSEC0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.110.1115.6215.62-0.08-0.08
North Carolina St.ACC0.110.1165.6265.620.030.03
BradleyMVC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.100.1031.0331.03-0.04-0.04
Kennesaw St.ASun0.100.1028.5728.57-0.04-0.04
Tennessee MartinOVC0.100.1027.5927.59-0.04-0.04
Youngstown St.Horz0.100.1020.0020.00-0.06-0.06
New Mexico St.WAC0.100.1083.3383.330.060.06
Green BayHorz0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.100.1071.8871.880.040.04
USC UpstateASun0.100.1010.7110.71-0.08-0.08
Missouri St.MVC0.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
Indiana St.MVC0.100.1037.9337.93-0.02-0.02
UMBCAE0.090.0967.7467.740.030.03
Notre DameACC0.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.090.0969.7069.700.040.04
ArkansasSEC0.090.0967.6567.650.030.03
GeorgetownBE0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
MaristMAAC0.090.0919.3519.35-0.06-0.06
Central MichiganMAC0.090.0953.3353.330.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.090.0924.1424.14-0.05-0.05
Oral RobertsSum0.090.0928.5728.57-0.04-0.04
BryantNEC0.090.099.689.68-0.07-0.07
KentuckySEC0.090.0970.5970.590.040.04
Old DominionCUSA0.090.0978.1278.120.050.05
UABCUSA0.090.0958.0658.060.010.01
VCUA100.090.0954.5554.550.010.01
PittsburghACC0.090.0925.0025.00-0.04-0.04
RiderMAAC0.090.0970.9770.970.040.04
Texas A&MSEC0.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
ColoradoP120.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.090.0940.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
Murray St.OVC0.080.0882.7682.760.050.05
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Western IllinoisSum0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.070.0776.6776.670.040.04
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
OhioMAC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.070.0760.6160.610.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
DukeACC0.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
Georgia TechACC0.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.070.0732.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Miami FLACC0.070.0770.9770.970.030.03
GeorgiaSEC0.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
SienaMAAC0.070.0725.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Virginia TechACC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.070.0743.7543.75-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
FordhamA100.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
HartfordAE0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
IonaMAAC0.070.0760.6160.610.010.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.070.0736.3636.36-0.02-0.02
StanfordP120.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
George MasonA100.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
UtahP120.070.0763.3363.330.020.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
Ball St.MAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.050.0544.4444.44-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
KansasB120.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0584.3884.380.030.03
SeattleWAC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
UMKCWAC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0565.5265.520.020.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Fort WayneSum0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Washington St.P120.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0516.6716.67-0.03-0.03
St. BonaventureA100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Loyola MDPat0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
MissouriSEC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
MassachusettsA100.050.0539.3939.39-0.01-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
ClemsonACC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
North TexasCUSA0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
BaylorB120.040.0454.8454.840.000.00
CharlotteCUSA0.040.0417.8617.86-0.03-0.03
FurmanSC0.040.0467.7467.740.020.02
Iowa St.B120.040.0441.9441.94-0.01-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.040.0445.1645.16-0.00-0.00
MississippiSEC0.040.0437.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.040.0465.6265.620.010.01
MonmouthMAAC0.040.0435.4835.48-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.040.0450.0050.000.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.040.0426.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Southern UtahBSky0.040.0436.6736.67-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.040.0453.1253.120.000.00
UMass LowellAE0.040.0437.9337.93-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.040.0437.5037.50-0.01-0.01
YaleIvy0.040.0450.0050.000.000.00
ConnecticutAmer0.040.0443.7543.75-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.040.0451.5251.520.000.00
Arizona St.P120.040.0464.5264.520.010.01
BinghamtonAE0.040.0431.0331.03-0.02-0.02
CaliforniaP120.040.0425.8125.81-0.02-0.02
CampbellBSth0.040.0446.4346.43-0.00-0.00
ColumbiaIvy0.040.0426.9226.92-0.02-0.02
George WashingtonA100.040.0445.4545.45-0.00-0.00
MontanaBSky0.040.0477.4277.420.020.02
OregonP120.040.0464.7164.710.010.01
Oregon St.P120.040.0450.0050.000.000.00
USCP120.040.0467.6567.650.020.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
NavyPat0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
BrownIvy0.020.0238.4638.46-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
HowardMEAC0.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.020.0213.3313.33-0.02-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
OklahomaB120.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.020.0231.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
AmericanPat0.020.0220.0020.00-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.020.026.676.67-0.02-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
North DakotaBSky0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
RadfordBSth0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.020.0244.1244.12-0.00-0.00
The CitadelSC0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
UCFAmer0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
VermontAE0.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
Wichita St.Amer0.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
AlbanyAE0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
AuburnSEC0.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
FIUCUSA0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
High PointBSth0.020.0240.7440.74-0.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.020.0210.7110.71-0.02-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.020.0280.6580.650.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MemphisAmer0.020.0261.7661.760.010.01
MercerSC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
New HampshireAE0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.020.0260.7160.710.000.00
PennIvy0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
Portland St.BSky0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.020.0217.2417.24-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.020.0280.0080.000.010.01
St. Francis PANEC0.020.0257.1457.140.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
WagnerNEC0.020.0270.0070.000.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.020.0213.3313.33-0.02-0.02
WashingtonP120.020.0262.5062.500.010.01