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Through games of Mar 11, 2018.


Richmond

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:176.0
Current RPI:176
Expected SOS:77
Current SOS:77
Current Record:12-20
Expected Record:12-20
Current Conf Record:10-10
Expected Conf Record:10-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-3
Current OOC Record:2-10
Expected OOC Record:2-10
Expected OOC RPI:241
Expected OOC SOS:22



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
12-20176.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Richmond.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Delaware (233.0)CAAH63-76L0%0.0
11-13Jacksonville St. (149.0)OVCH61-94L0%0.0
11-20UAB (155.0)CUSAN50-63W100%0.0
11-21Cincinnati (6.0)AmerN75-48L0%0.0
11-22Louisiana Lafayette (63.0)SBN76-82L0%0.0
11-25Georgetown (169.0)BEH76-82L0%0.0
11-29Vermont (60.0)AEH65-71L0%0.0
12-2Wake Forest (160.0)ACCA82-53L0%0.0
12-6Old Dominion (78.0)CUSAA79-60L0%0.0
12-10James Madison (272.0)CAAH74-71W100%0.0
12-19Bucknell (80.0)PatH78-86L0%0.0
12-23Boston College (96.0)ACCA78-73L0%0.0
12-30Davidson (47.0)A10H69-58W100%0.0
1-3Fordham (290.0)A10A69-65L0%0.0
1-6Saint Louis (148.0)A10A69-62L0%0.0
1-9Dayton (146.0)A10H81-87L0%0.0
1-13George Washington (195.0)A10H78-68W100%0.0
1-17VCU (135.0)A10A52-67W100%0.0
1-20La Salle (202.0)A10H81-74W100%0.0
1-24Duquesne (259.0)A10A73-77W100%0.0
1-28Davidson (47.0)A10A63-66W100%0.0
2-3George Mason (201.0)A10H75-79L0%0.0
2-7VCU (135.0)A10H77-76W100%0.0
2-10St. Bonaventure (24.0)A10A97-88L0%0.0
2-13Rhode Island (19.0)A10A85-67L0%0.0
2-17Saint Louis (148.0)A10H66-72L0%0.0
2-21George Washington (195.0)A10A103-77L0%0.0
2-24Saint Joseph's (147.0)A10H70-72L0%0.0
2-28Massachusetts (240.0)A10H90-65W100%0.0
3-3George Mason (201.0)A10A79-93W100%0.0
3-8Duquesne (259.0)A10N81-68W100%0.0
3-9St. Bonaventure (24.0)A10N83-77L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Richmond's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Richmond's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Richmond.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
RichmondA1026.1226.1235.4435.44-7.60-7.60
DavidsonA103.833.8370.0070.001.531.53
George WashingtonA103.833.8345.1645.16-0.37-0.37
St. BonaventureA103.833.8376.6776.672.042.04
VCUA103.803.8058.0658.060.610.61
Saint LouisA103.803.8046.6746.67-0.25-0.25
George MasonA103.783.7848.3948.39-0.12-0.12
DuquesneA103.763.7653.3353.330.250.25
Rhode IslandA102.312.3177.4277.421.271.27
Saint Joseph'sA102.292.2948.3948.39-0.07-0.07
DaytonA102.292.2943.3343.33-0.30-0.30
FordhamA102.262.2626.6726.67-1.06-1.06
MassachusettsA102.242.2440.6240.62-0.42-0.42
La SalleA102.242.2441.9441.94-0.36-0.36
Old DominionCUSA1.691.6977.4277.420.920.92
James MadisonCAA1.681.6830.0030.00-0.67-0.67
BucknellPat1.681.6872.7372.730.760.76
VermontAE1.631.6378.1278.120.920.92
DelawareCAA1.611.6136.6736.67-0.43-0.43
Boston CollegeACC1.611.6154.5554.550.150.15
UABCUSA1.591.5960.0060.000.320.32
Wake ForestACC1.591.5933.3333.33-0.53-0.53
CincinnatiAmer1.561.5687.8887.881.181.18
GeorgetownBE1.561.5648.2848.28-0.05-0.05
Jacksonville St.OVC1.561.5661.2961.290.350.35
Louisiana LafayetteSB1.561.5680.0080.000.940.94
NortheasternCAA0.220.2268.7568.750.080.08
SyracuseACC0.200.2060.6160.610.040.04
MaineAE0.190.1913.3313.33-0.14-0.14
CharlotteCUSA0.170.1717.8617.86-0.11-0.11
William & MaryCAA0.170.1758.6258.620.030.03
ProvidenceBE0.170.1761.7661.760.040.04
Louisiana TechCUSA0.170.1748.3948.39-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.170.1793.9493.940.150.15
TempleAmer0.170.1753.1253.120.010.01
DrexelCAA0.150.1537.5037.50-0.04-0.04
TowsonCAA0.150.1553.3353.330.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.150.1530.0030.00-0.06-0.06
Western KentuckyCUSA0.150.1569.7069.700.060.06
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.150.1516.6716.67-0.10-0.10
BuffaloMAC0.150.1575.7675.760.080.08
Appalachian St.SB0.150.1541.9441.94-0.02-0.02
VMISC0.150.1525.0025.00-0.07-0.07
HarvardIvy0.140.1456.6756.670.020.02
Florida St.ACC0.140.1464.5264.520.040.04
HoustonAmer0.140.1478.7978.790.080.08
Miami FLACC0.140.1470.9770.970.060.06
ElonCAA0.130.1340.0040.00-0.03-0.03
HofstraCAA0.130.1360.0060.000.030.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.130.1377.4277.420.070.07
Seton HallBE0.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
MarquetteBE0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
XavierBE0.120.1284.8584.850.090.09
Murray St.OVC0.120.1282.7682.760.080.08
North CarolinaACC0.120.1271.4371.430.050.05
Holy CrossPat0.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
St. John'sBE0.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
VillanovaBE0.100.1088.2488.240.080.08
FIUCUSA0.100.1037.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.100.1032.1432.14-0.04-0.04
MarshallCUSA0.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
Tennessee TechOVC0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
HowardMEAC0.100.1025.8125.81-0.05-0.05
AuburnSEC0.100.1078.1278.120.050.05
Georgia SouthernSB0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
YaleIvy0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
PittsburghACC0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
Virginia TechACC0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
ClemsonACC0.100.1071.8871.880.040.04
Georgia TechACC0.100.1040.6240.62-0.02-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
Notre DameACC0.100.1057.5857.580.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
SienaMAAC0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
BinghamtonAE0.090.0931.0331.03-0.04-0.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.090.0936.6736.67-0.03-0.03
New HampshireAE0.090.0927.5927.59-0.04-0.04
Penn St.B100.090.0961.7661.760.020.02
MemphisAmer0.090.0961.7661.760.020.02
Stony BrookAE0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
LafayettePat0.090.0930.0030.00-0.04-0.04
ColgatePat0.090.0958.0658.060.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Texas St.SB0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.070.0746.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.070.0776.6776.670.040.04
South AlabamaSB0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
Coastal CarolinaSB0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Georgia St.SB0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
AkronMAC0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.070.0725.8125.81-0.04-0.04
CornellIvy0.070.0740.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.070.076.676.67-0.06-0.06
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.070.0712.5012.50-0.06-0.06
PennIvy0.070.0774.1974.190.040.04
St. Francis NYNEC0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
DukeACC0.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
NevadaMWC0.070.0779.4179.410.040.04
Oregon St.P120.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.070.0736.3636.36-0.02-0.02
NiagaraMAAC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
MarylandB100.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.070.0742.8642.86-0.01-0.01
ArmyPat0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
NavyPat0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
UMass LowellAE0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
UMBCAE0.070.0767.7467.740.030.03
HartfordAE0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
Boston UniversityPat0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Loyola MDPat0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
SMUAmer0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
CreightonBE0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
DePaulBE0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.059.689.68-0.04-0.04
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
IowaB100.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Little RockSB0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
RiceCUSA0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
UTEPCUSA0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0515.6215.62-0.03-0.03
BradleyMVC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
BelmontOVC0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
CampbellBSth0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
HawaiiBW0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
LamarSlnd0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
SeattleWAC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
StetsonASun0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
TCUB120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
FloridaSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
TulaneAmer0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
WyomingMWC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
AlbanyAE0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0514.2914.29-0.03-0.03
CaliforniaP120.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Kansas St.B120.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
MichiganB100.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
North FloridaASun0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
RiderMAAC0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
TexasB120.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
WinthropBSth0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
DartmouthIvy0.050.0523.0823.08-0.03-0.03
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
AmericanPat0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
LehighPat0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
UCFAmer0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Wichita St.Amer0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0324.2424.24-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
LibertyBSth0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0332.0032.00-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
MississippiSEC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
OhioMAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
RadfordBSth0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
RutgersB100.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0384.8584.850.020.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
The CitadelSC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
WagnerNEC0.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
Weber St.BSky0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
West VirginiaB120.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.020.0255.8855.880.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
BrownIvy0.020.0238.4638.46-0.01-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
MercerSC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.020.0216.6716.67-0.02-0.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
USC UpstateASun0.020.0210.7110.71-0.02-0.02
Washington St.P120.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
BYUWCC0.020.0270.5970.590.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
KentuckySEC0.020.0270.5970.590.010.01
MinnesotaB100.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.020.0267.6567.650.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.020.0232.3532.35-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.020.0226.9226.92-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.020.0231.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
TulsaAmer0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
UCLAP120.020.0265.6265.620.010.01