Rutgers

Conference:	B10
Expected RPI:	203.0
Current RPI:	203
Expected SOS:	86
Current SOS:	86
Current Record:	14-19
Expected Record:	14-19
Current Conf Record:	5-16
Expected Conf Record:	5-16
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-8
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	1-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	5-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	8-1
Current OOC Record:	9-3
Expected OOC Record:	9-3
Expected OOC RPI:	239
Expected OOC SOS:	333

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
14-19	203.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Rutgers.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-12	Central Connecticut (263.0)	NEC	H	71-67	W	100%
11-14	Cleveland St. (282.0)	Horz	H	70-38	W	100%
11-19	Coppin St. (343.0)	MEAC	H	64-39	W	100%
11-21	Bryant (341.0)	NEC	H	83-54	W	100%
11-24	East Carolina (274.0)	Amer	H	61-47	W	100%
11-28	Florida St. (54.0)	ACC	H	73-78	L	0%
12-3	Minnesota (171.0)	B10	A	89-67	L	0%
12-5	Michigan St. (14.0)	B10	H	52-62	L	0%
12-7	NJIT (269.0)	ASun	H	73-64	W	100%
12-9	Fairleigh Dickinson (254.0)	NEC	H	92-54	W	100%
12-12	Fordham (290.0)	A10	H	75-63	W	100%
12-16	Seton Hall (31.0)	BE	H	71-65	W	100%
12-22	Stony Brook (208.0)	AE	H	73-75	L	0%
12-28	Hartford (198.0)	AE	H	58-60	L	0%
1-3	Purdue (9.0)	B10	A	82-51	L	0%
1-5	Wisconsin (114.0)	B10	H	64-60	W	100%
1-10	Michigan St. (14.0)	B10	A	76-72	L	0%
1-14	Ohio St. (20.0)	B10	H	46-68	L	0%
1-17	Iowa (157.0)	B10	H	80-64	W	100%
1-21	Michigan (12.0)	B10	A	62-47	L	0%
1-24	Nebraska (56.0)	B10	H	54-60	L	0%
1-27	Penn St. (77.0)	B10	A	60-43	L	0%
1-30	Illinois (181.0)	B10	A	91-60	L	0%
2-3	Purdue (9.0)	B10	H	76-78	L	0%
2-5	Indiana (125.0)	B10	H	43-65	L	0%
2-10	Nebraska (56.0)	B10	A	67-55	L	0%
2-13	Northwestern (168.0)	B10	H	67-58	W	100%
2-17	Maryland (74.0)	B10	A	61-51	L	0%
2-20	Ohio St. (20.0)	B10	A	79-52	L	0%
2-25	Illinois (181.0)	B10	H	62-75	L	0%
2-28	Minnesota (171.0)	B10	N	54-65	W	100%
3-1	Indiana (125.0)	B10	N	69-76	W	100%
3-2	Purdue (9.0)	B10	N	82-75	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Rutgers's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Rutgers's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Rutgers.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Rutgers	B10	26.21	26.21	32.62	32.62	-9.11	-9.11
Purdue	B10	5.13	5.13	80.65	80.65	3.15	3.15
Michigan St.	B10	3.71	3.71	87.10	87.10	2.76	2.76
Indiana	B10	3.71	3.71	51.72	51.72	0.13	0.13
Minnesota	B10	3.69	3.69	46.67	46.67	-0.25	-0.25
Illinois	B10	3.66	3.66	37.93	37.93	-0.88	-0.88
Nebraska	B10	3.64	3.64	66.67	66.67	1.21	1.21
Ohio St.	B10	3.61	3.61	73.33	73.33	1.69	1.69
Michigan	B10	2.35	2.35	78.79	78.79	1.36	1.36
Penn St.	B10	2.34	2.34	60.61	60.61	0.50	0.50
Wisconsin	B10	2.29	2.29	46.88	46.88	-0.14	-0.14
Iowa	B10	2.24	2.24	43.75	43.75	-0.28	-0.28
Maryland	B10	2.24	2.24	56.67	56.67	0.30	0.30
Northwestern	B10	2.14	2.14	46.67	46.67	-0.14	-0.14
Central Connecticut	NEC	1.71	1.71	45.16	45.16	-0.17	-0.17
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	1.71	1.71	39.29	39.29	-0.37	-0.37
Bryant	NEC	1.64	1.64	10.00	10.00	-1.31	-1.31
Stony Brook	AE	1.63	1.63	36.67	36.67	-0.44	-0.44
Cleveland St.	Horz	1.63	1.63	33.33	33.33	-0.54	-0.54
Seton Hall	BE	1.62	1.62	67.74	67.74	0.57	0.57
Hartford	AE	1.61	1.61	56.67	56.67	0.21	0.21
Coppin St.	MEAC	1.61	1.61	16.13	16.13	-1.09	-1.09
East Carolina	Amer	1.58	1.58	34.48	34.48	-0.49	-0.49
NJIT	ASun	1.56	1.56	44.44	44.44	-0.17	-0.17
Florida St.	ACC	1.54	1.54	63.33	63.33	0.41	0.41
Fordham	A10	1.54	1.54	30.00	30.00	-0.62	-0.62
LIU Brooklyn	NEC	0.30	0.30	51.52	51.52	0.01	0.01
Wagner	NEC	0.25	0.25	70.00	70.00	0.10	0.10
Louisville	ACC	0.24	0.24	60.61	60.61	0.05	0.05
Butler	BE	0.21	0.21	60.61	60.61	0.04	0.04
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.20	0.20	57.14	57.14	0.03	0.03
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.20	0.20	30.00	30.00	-0.08	-0.08
Robert Morris	NEC	0.20	0.20	48.48	48.48	-0.01	-0.01
DePaul	BE	0.19	0.19	35.48	35.48	-0.06	-0.06
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.17	0.17	37.93	37.93	-0.04	-0.04
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.17	0.17	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
UMass Lowell	AE	0.17	0.17	37.93	37.93	-0.04	-0.04
UMBC	AE	0.17	0.17	67.74	67.74	0.06	0.06
North Florida	ASun	0.15	0.15	36.67	36.67	-0.04	-0.04
Albany	AE	0.15	0.15	67.74	67.74	0.05	0.05
New Hampshire	AE	0.15	0.15	27.59	27.59	-0.07	-0.07
Maine	AE	0.15	0.15	13.33	13.33	-0.11	-0.11
Connecticut	Amer	0.14	0.14	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
Boston College	ACC	0.14	0.14	55.88	55.88	0.02	0.02
North Carolina	ACC	0.14	0.14	71.43	71.43	0.06	0.06
Chicago St.	WAC	0.14	0.14	3.33	3.33	-0.13	-0.13
Marquette	BE	0.14	0.14	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
Brown	Ivy	0.12	0.12	38.46	38.46	-0.03	-0.03
Vermont	AE	0.12	0.12	78.79	78.79	0.07	0.07
Lipscomb	ASun	0.12	0.12	68.97	68.97	0.05	0.05
Binghamton	AE	0.12	0.12	31.03	31.03	-0.05	-0.05
Duke	ACC	0.12	0.12	78.79	78.79	0.07	0.07
Notre Dame	ACC	0.12	0.12	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Creighton	BE	0.12	0.12	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
Providence	BE	0.12	0.12	61.76	61.76	0.03	0.03
St. John's	BE	0.12	0.12	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.12	0.12	20.00	20.00	-0.07	-0.07
Oakland	Horz	0.11	0.11	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
IUPUI	Horz	0.11	0.11	32.14	32.14	-0.04	-0.04
Stetson	ASun	0.10	0.10	28.57	28.57	-0.04	-0.04
USC Upstate	ASun	0.10	0.10	10.71	10.71	-0.08	-0.08
South Florida	Amer	0.10	0.10	31.25	31.25	-0.04	-0.04
Tulane	Amer	0.10	0.10	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
UCF	Amer	0.10	0.10	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.10	0.10	6.67	6.67	-0.08	-0.08
Clemson	ACC	0.10	0.10	71.88	71.88	0.04	0.04
Miami FL	ACC	0.10	0.10	70.97	70.97	0.04	0.04
Miami OH	MAC	0.10	0.10	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.10	0.10	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
George Washington	A10	0.10	0.10	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
VCU	A10	0.09	0.09	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Long Beach St.	BW	0.09	0.09	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Valparaiso	MVC	0.09	0.09	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.09	0.09	69.70	69.70	0.04	0.04
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.08	0.08	28.57	28.57	-0.03	-0.03
Jacksonville	ASun	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
West Virginia	B12	0.08	0.08	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
Memphis	Amer	0.07	0.07	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
Saint Peter's	MAAC	0.07	0.07	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
La Salle	A10	0.07	0.07	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Wake Forest	ACC	0.07	0.07	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.07	0.07	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Radford	BSth	0.07	0.07	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.07	0.07	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.07	0.07	25.81	25.81	-0.04	-0.04
Southern	SWAC	0.07	0.07	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Harvard	Ivy	0.07	0.07	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.07	0.07	39.39	39.39	-0.02	-0.02
The Citadel	SC	0.07	0.07	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
Cincinnati	Amer	0.07	0.07	88.24	88.24	0.05	0.05
Arkansas St.	SB	0.07	0.07	30.00	30.00	-0.03	-0.03
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Georgetown	BE	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Drake	MVC	0.07	0.07	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.07	0.07	26.67	26.67	-0.03	-0.03
Xavier	BE	0.07	0.07	84.85	84.85	0.05	0.05
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.07	0.07	9.68	9.68	-0.06	-0.06
Niagara	MAAC	0.07	0.07	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.07	0.07	28.57	28.57	-0.03	-0.03
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.07	0.07	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Utah	BSky	0.07	0.07	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Green Bay	Horz	0.07	0.07	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Milwaukee	Horz	0.07	0.07	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Detroit	Horz	0.07	0.07	20.00	20.00	-0.04	-0.04
Arizona	P12	0.07	0.07	79.41	79.41	0.04	0.04
Fairfield	MAAC	0.07	0.07	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Northern Kentucky	Horz	0.07	0.07	68.97	68.97	0.03	0.03
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.07	0.07	30.00	30.00	-0.03	-0.03
Tennessee	SEC	0.07	0.07	75.76	75.76	0.03	0.03
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.07	0.07	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Wright St.	Horz	0.07	0.07	71.88	71.88	0.03	0.03
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Iona	MAAC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Houston	Amer	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
SMU	Amer	0.05	0.05	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Tulsa	Amer	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Austin Peay	OVC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Bucknell	Pat	0.05	0.05	73.53	73.53	0.02	0.02
Davidson	A10	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Duquesne	A10	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Fort Wayne	Sum	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Indiana St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Longwood	BSth	0.05	0.05	13.33	13.33	-0.04	-0.04
Loyola MD	Pat	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.02	-0.02
Marshall	CUSA	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Missouri	SEC	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	83.33	83.33	0.03	0.03
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Syracuse	ACC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
UNLV	MWC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Temple	Amer	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.05	0.05	24.24	24.24	-0.02	-0.02
Manhattan	MAAC	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.05	0.05	16.67	16.67	-0.03	-0.03
Navy	Pat	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Texas Tech	B12	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Campbell	BSth	0.05	0.05	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Virginia	ACC	0.05	0.05	93.94	93.94	0.04	0.04
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Yale	Ivy	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Alabama	SEC	0.05	0.05	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Appalachian St.	SB	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.05	0.05	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0.05	0.05	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
Gonzaga	WCC	0.05	0.05	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
Hampton	MEAC	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Kansas	B12	0.05	0.05	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Marist	MAAC	0.05	0.05	19.35	19.35	-0.03	-0.03
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
North Dakota	BSky	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
North Texas	CUSA	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Northeastern	CAA	0.05	0.05	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Stanford	P12	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.05	0.05	44.12	44.12	-0.01	-0.01
UTSA	CUSA	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Villanova	BE	0.05	0.05	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
Western Carolina	SC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
William & Mary	CAA	0.05	0.05	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Columbia	Ivy	0.05	0.05	26.92	26.92	-0.02	-0.02
George Mason	A10	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.02	-0.02
Rider	MAAC	0.05	0.05	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Southern Miss	CUSA	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.05	0.05	10.71	10.71	-0.04	-0.04
UCLA	P12	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.04	0.04	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Buffalo	MAC	0.03	0.03	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
Colgate	Pat	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Drexel	CAA	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Lafayette	Pat	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Holy Cross	Pat	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Princeton	Ivy	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Charlotte	CUSA	0.03	0.03	17.86	17.86	-0.02	-0.02
UNC Wilmington	CAA	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Wichita St.	Amer	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.02	0.02	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.02	0.02	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Colorado St.	MWC	0.02	0.02	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.02	0.02	23.08	23.08	-0.01	-0.01
Dayton	A10	0.02	0.02	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
East Tennessee St.	SC	0.02	0.02	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
FIU	CUSA	0.02	0.02	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Florida	SEC	0.02	0.02	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.02	0.02	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.02	0.02	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Hofstra	CAA	0.02	0.02	60.00	60.00	0.00	0.00
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.02	0.02	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
New Mexico	MWC	0.02	0.02	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Oklahoma	B12	0.02	0.02	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.02	0.02	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Portland	WCC	0.02	0.02	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
Quinnipiac	MAAC	0.02	0.02	36.36	36.36	-0.01	-0.01
Richmond	A10	0.02	0.02	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Saint Louis	A10	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Siena	MAAC	0.02	0.02	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Monmouth	MAAC	0.02	0.02	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Oregon	P12	0.02	0.02	64.71	64.71	0.01	0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.02	0.02	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.02	0.02	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Baylor	B12	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Colorado	P12	0.02	0.02	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Iowa St.	B12	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.02	0.02	80.65	80.65	0.01	0.01
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.02	0.02	80.00	80.00	0.01	0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.02	0.02	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Akron	MAC	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Central Michigan	MAC	0.02	0.02	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Kent St.	MAC	0.02	0.02	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
LSU	SEC	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Montana	BSky	0.02	0.02	77.42	77.42	0.01	0.01
Texas	B12	0.02	0.02	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Texas A&M	SEC	0.02	0.02	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Toledo	MAC	0.02	0.02	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
UC Riverside	BW	0.02	0.02	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00