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Through games of Mar 11, 2018.


SMU

Conference:Amer
Expected RPI:113.0
Current RPI:113
Expected SOS:60
Current SOS:60
Current Record:17-16
Expected Record:17-16
Current Conf Record:7-13
Expected Conf Record:7-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-1
Current OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC RPI:55
Expected OOC SOS:107



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-16113.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for SMU.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10UMBC (111.0)AEH78-67W100%0.0
11-12Louisiana Monroe (219.0)SBH83-65W100%0.0
11-15Northwestern St. (342.0)SlndH81-35W100%0.0
11-18Arkansas Pine Bluff (307.0)SWACH72-37W100%0.0
11-22Northern Iowa (138.0)MVCN58-61L0%0.0
11-23Arizona (13.0)P12N66-60W100%0.0
11-24Western Kentucky (39.0)CUSAN61-63L0%0.0
11-28UT Rio Grande Valley (229.0)WACH95-64W100%0.0
12-2USC (34.0)P12H72-55W100%0.0
12-5TCU (26.0)B12A94-83L0%0.0
12-13New Orleans (239.0)SlndH79-66W100%0.0
12-18Boise St. (50.0)MWCH86-63W100%0.0
12-19Cal Poly (305.0)BWH84-64W100%0.0
12-27UCF (84.0)AmerH56-51W100%0.0
12-31South Florida (278.0)AmerH79-39W100%0.0
1-4Tulane (175.0)AmerA73-70L0%0.0
1-7Cincinnati (6.0)AmerA76-56L0%0.0
1-10Temple (52.0)AmerH64-66L0%0.0
1-17Wichita St. (16.0)AmerA78-83W100%0.0
1-20Tulane (175.0)AmerH73-62W100%0.0
1-25Connecticut (123.0)AmerA63-52L0%0.0
1-28East Carolina (274.0)AmerH86-61W100%0.0
2-1Tulsa (89.0)AmerA76-67L0%0.0
2-8Houston (18.0)AmerA67-58L0%0.0
2-11Cincinnati (6.0)AmerH51-76L0%0.0
2-14Memphis (106.0)AmerH67-70L0%0.0
2-17UCF (84.0)AmerA52-37L0%0.0
2-21East Carolina (274.0)AmerA58-77W100%0.0
2-24Wichita St. (16.0)AmerH78-84L0%0.0
2-28Houston (18.0)AmerH56-69L0%0.0
3-4South Florida (278.0)AmerA65-54L0%0.0
3-8Connecticut (123.0)AmerN73-80W100%0.0
3-9Cincinnati (6.0)AmerN61-51L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

SMU's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


SMU's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  SMU.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
SMUAmer26.2626.2645.9945.99-2.11-2.11
CincinnatiAmer5.275.2787.1087.103.913.91
HoustonAmer3.933.9377.4277.422.152.15
UCFAmer3.813.8160.0060.000.760.76
Wichita St.Amer3.783.7880.0080.002.272.27
ConnecticutAmer3.763.7643.3343.33-0.50-0.50
East CarolinaAmer3.743.7435.7135.71-1.07-1.07
South FloridaAmer3.723.7230.0030.00-1.49-1.49
TulaneAmer3.693.6944.8344.83-0.38-0.38
MemphisAmer2.462.4660.6160.610.520.52
TempleAmer2.392.3951.6151.610.080.08
TulsaAmer2.272.2760.0060.000.450.45
New OrleansSlnd1.641.6444.4444.44-0.18-0.18
ArizonaP121.631.6381.8281.821.041.04
Northwestern St.Slnd1.601.608.338.33-1.33-1.33
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC1.581.5841.1841.18-0.28-0.28
Louisiana MonroeSB1.571.5748.1548.15-0.06-0.06
USCP121.561.5669.7069.700.610.61
TCUB121.541.5464.5264.520.450.45
UMBCAE1.541.5470.0070.000.610.61
Boise St.MWC1.521.5275.8675.860.780.78
Cal PolyBW1.521.5225.0025.00-0.76-0.76
Northern IowaMVC1.521.5244.8344.83-0.16-0.16
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC1.521.5244.8344.83-0.16-0.16
Western KentuckyCUSA1.521.5268.7568.750.570.57
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.240.2463.3363.330.060.06
Nicholls St.Slnd0.240.2460.7160.710.050.05
Coppin St.MEAC0.190.1915.6215.62-0.13-0.13
OregonP120.180.1864.7164.710.050.05
Arkansas St.SB0.180.1830.0030.00-0.07-0.07
CaliforniaP120.160.1625.8125.81-0.08-0.08
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.160.1630.7730.77-0.06-0.06
SouthernSWAC0.160.1641.9441.94-0.03-0.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.160.1632.0032.00-0.06-0.06
UCLAP120.160.1665.6265.620.050.05
OklahomaB120.150.1558.0658.060.020.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.150.1553.3353.330.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.140.1457.5857.580.020.02
CharlotteCUSA0.140.1417.8617.86-0.09-0.09
Oregon St.P120.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.130.1360.6160.610.030.03
Incarnate WordSlnd0.130.1312.5012.50-0.10-0.10
South AlabamaSB0.130.1340.0040.00-0.03-0.03
Colorado St.MWC0.130.1332.2632.26-0.05-0.05
Illinois St.MVC0.120.1253.1253.120.010.01
Iowa St.B120.120.1241.9441.94-0.02-0.02
UtahP120.120.1263.3363.330.030.03
VillanovaBE0.120.1288.2488.240.090.09
UABCUSA0.120.1258.0658.060.020.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.120.1225.0025.00-0.06-0.06
Cleveland St.Horz0.120.1232.3532.35-0.04-0.04
WyomingMWC0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
StanfordP120.120.1254.5554.550.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.110.1180.0080.000.070.07
Savannah St.MEAC0.110.1143.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.110.1145.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
ColoradoP120.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.110.1125.8125.81-0.05-0.05
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.100.1084.3884.380.070.07
Texas St.SB0.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.100.1070.0070.000.040.04
Chicago St.WAC0.100.103.333.33-0.09-0.09
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
UNLVMWC0.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
UMKCWAC0.100.1027.5927.59-0.04-0.04
New MexicoMWC0.100.1054.5554.550.010.01
Stony BrookAE0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Kansas St.B120.100.1066.6766.670.030.03
BaylorB120.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
StetsonASun0.090.0928.5728.57-0.04-0.04
West VirginiaB120.090.0970.5970.590.040.04
ArkansasSEC0.090.0967.6567.650.030.03
Old DominionCUSA0.090.0978.1278.120.050.05
XavierBE0.090.0984.8584.850.060.06
AlabamaSEC0.090.0955.8855.880.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.090.0944.1244.12-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
LamarSlnd0.080.0853.5753.570.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.080.0880.6580.650.050.05
RiceCUSA0.080.0817.2417.24-0.05-0.05
TexasB120.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Little RockSB0.080.0820.0020.00-0.05-0.05
Georgia St.SB0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
EvansvilleMVC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
SeattleWAC0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
TroySB0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.070.076.676.67-0.06-0.06
Cal St. FullertonBW0.070.0762.0762.070.020.02
Long Beach St.BW0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
NevadaMWC0.070.0779.4179.410.040.04
North CarolinaACC0.070.0771.4371.430.030.03
HawaiiBW0.070.0753.5753.570.010.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.070.0777.4277.420.040.04
Indiana St.MVC0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
HartfordAE0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
UMass LowellAE0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
VermontAE0.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
Fresno St.MWC0.070.0763.3363.330.020.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.070.0783.3383.330.050.05
Air ForceMWC0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
ColgatePat0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
AlbanyAE0.070.0767.7467.740.030.03
AuburnSEC0.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
William & MaryCAA0.070.0758.6258.620.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
FIUCUSA0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.070.0732.1432.14-0.03-0.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
MercerSC0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.070.0713.3313.33-0.05-0.05
DrexelCAA0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
LSUSEC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.070.0776.6776.670.040.04
Arizona St.P120.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
BuffaloMAC0.070.0775.7675.760.030.03
FloridaSEC0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
RichmondA100.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.060.0612.5012.50-0.05-0.05
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.060.0644.4444.44-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.060.0610.7110.71-0.05-0.05
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
UC DavisBW0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
UC RiversideBW0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
BradleyMVC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
CampbellBSth0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
RadfordBSth0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
RutgersB100.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0565.5265.520.020.02
ValparaisoMVC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
FordhamA100.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
MaineAE0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
Miami OHMAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
New HampshireAE0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
UTSACUSA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0526.9226.92-0.02-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
ElonCAA0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
IndianaB100.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
KansasB120.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
MarquetteBE0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Michigan St.B100.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
MissouriSEC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Notre DameACC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0580.0080.000.030.03
SyracuseACC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Texas TechB120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
BelmontOVC0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
WisconsinB100.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
LibertyBSth0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
ProvidenceBE0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
Saint LouisA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.050.0582.3582.350.030.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.040.0441.3841.38-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.040.0462.5062.500.010.01
Washington St.P120.040.0438.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.040.049.689.68-0.03-0.03
Coastal CarolinaSB0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
OaklandHorz0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
IdahoBSky0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.030.0316.1316.13-0.02-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
PortlandWCC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
San Jose St.MWC0.030.0310.3410.34-0.02-0.02
Southern UtahBSky0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
ArmyPat0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
ManhattanMAAC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
MarylandB100.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
ClemsonACC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
George WashingtonA100.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
La SalleA100.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
PennIvy0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
South DakotaSum0.020.0273.3373.330.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
YaleIvy0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
AkronMAC0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
BryantNEC0.020.029.689.68-0.02-0.02
LehighPat0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.020.0260.6160.610.000.00
Loyola MDPat0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
SienaMAAC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
North DakotaBSky0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
PacificWCC0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.020.0260.7160.710.000.00