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Through games of Mar 11, 2018.


TCU

Conference:B12
Expected RPI:26.0
Current RPI:26
Expected SOS:10
Current SOS:10
Current Record:21-11
Expected Record:21-11
Current Conf Record:9-10
Expected Conf Record:9-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:9-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-0
Current OOC Record:12-1
Expected OOC Record:12-1
Expected OOC RPI:5
Expected OOC SOS:44



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-1126.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for TCU.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Louisiana Monroe (219.0)SBH83-73W100%0.0
11-13Tennessee Tech (158.0)OVCH100-63W100%0.0
11-15South Dakota (91.0)SumH76-71W100%0.0
11-20Nebraska Omaha (284.0)SumH99-66W100%0.0
11-24New Mexico (118.0)MWCN69-67W100%0.0
11-25St. Bonaventure (24.0)A10N79-89W100%0.0
11-29Belmont (81.0)OVCH87-76W100%0.0
12-2Yale (183.0)IvyH92-66W100%0.0
12-5SMU (113.0)AmerH94-83W100%0.0
12-8Nevada (17.0)MWCN84-80W100%0.0
12-18Texas Southern (222.0)SWACH91-72W100%0.0
12-22William & Mary (94.0)CAAH86-75W100%0.0
12-30Oklahoma (49.0)B12H89-90L0%0.0
1-2Baylor (68.0)B12A78-81W100%0.0
1-6Kansas (5.0)B12H84-88L0%0.0
1-10Texas (51.0)B12A99-98L0%0.0
1-13Oklahoma (49.0)B12A102-97L0%0.0
1-17Iowa St. (144.0)B12H96-73W100%0.0
1-20Kansas St. (53.0)B12A73-68L0%0.0
1-22West Virginia (27.0)B12H82-73W100%0.0
1-27Vanderbilt (132.0)SECA81-78L0%0.0
1-30Oklahoma St. (88.0)B12A66-79W100%0.0
2-3Texas Tech (23.0)B12H71-83L0%0.0
2-6Kansas (5.0)B12A71-64L0%0.0
2-10Texas (51.0)B12H87-71W100%0.0
2-12West Virginia (27.0)B12A82-66L0%0.0
2-17Oklahoma St. (88.0)B12H90-70W100%0.0
2-21Iowa St. (144.0)B12A83-89W100%0.0
2-24Baylor (68.0)B12H82-72W100%0.0
2-27Kansas St. (53.0)B12H66-59W100%0.0
3-3Texas Tech (23.0)B12A79-75L0%0.0
3-8Kansas St. (53.0)B12N66-64L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

TCU's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


TCU's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  TCU.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
TCUB1226.3126.3163.2863.286.996.99
Kansas St.B125.535.5366.6766.671.841.84
KansasB124.164.1678.1278.122.342.34
West VirginiaB124.094.0971.8871.881.791.79
Texas TechB124.064.0670.9770.971.701.70
TexasB124.044.0458.0658.060.650.65
Oklahoma St.B124.044.0461.2961.290.910.91
OklahomaB124.014.0155.1755.170.410.41
BaylorB124.014.0158.6258.620.690.69
Iowa St.B123.983.9844.8344.83-0.41-0.41
Nebraska OmahaSum1.791.7925.0025.00-0.89-0.89
Tennessee TechOVC1.661.6656.6756.670.220.22
Texas SouthernSWAC1.661.6645.4545.45-0.15-0.15
VanderbiltSEC1.661.6635.4835.48-0.48-0.48
South DakotaSum1.641.6475.8675.860.850.85
New MexicoMWC1.641.6456.2556.250.200.20
BelmontOVC1.641.6475.0075.000.820.82
NevadaMWC1.631.6381.8281.821.041.04
SMUAmer1.591.5953.1253.120.100.10
St. BonaventureA101.591.5980.6580.650.970.97
YaleIvy1.591.5951.7251.720.050.05
Louisiana MonroeSB1.591.5948.1548.15-0.06-0.06
William & MaryCAA1.561.5660.7160.710.330.33
Oral RobertsSum0.220.2228.5728.57-0.10-0.10
Alcorn St.SWAC0.200.2025.0025.00-0.10-0.10
Wichita St.Amer0.200.2078.1278.120.110.11
TulsaAmer0.190.1961.2961.290.040.04
Tennessee St.OVC0.190.1946.4346.43-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.180.1880.0080.000.110.11
Austin PeayOVC0.170.1753.3353.330.010.01
Boise St.MWC0.170.1773.3373.330.080.08
Texas A&MSEC0.160.1662.5062.500.040.04
Western IllinoisSum0.160.1633.3333.33-0.05-0.05
Jacksonville St.OVC0.150.1562.5062.500.040.04
Northwestern St.Slnd0.150.158.008.00-0.13-0.13
Arizona St.P120.140.1464.5264.520.040.04
KentuckySEC0.140.1470.5970.590.060.06
WyomingMWC0.140.1459.3859.380.030.03
DenverSum0.130.1346.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.130.1333.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Savannah St.MEAC0.120.1243.3343.33-0.02-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.120.1255.8855.880.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.120.1267.6567.650.040.04
MissouriSEC0.120.1261.2961.290.030.03
UCFAmer0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
LipscombASun0.120.1268.9768.970.050.05
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.120.1241.3841.38-0.02-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.120.1254.5554.550.010.01
San Jose St.MWC0.120.1210.3410.34-0.09-0.09
AmericanPat0.120.1220.0020.00-0.07-0.07
Utah St.MWC0.120.1248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.120.1267.7467.740.040.04
UNLVMWC0.120.1260.6160.610.020.02
Arkansas St.SB0.110.1130.0030.00-0.04-0.04
Fort WayneSum0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.110.1141.3841.38-0.02-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.100.1016.6716.67-0.07-0.07
Grambling St.SWAC0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
FloridaSEC0.100.1062.5062.500.020.02
TennesseeSEC0.100.1075.7675.760.050.05
Kennesaw St.ASun0.100.1028.5728.57-0.04-0.04
USCP120.100.1067.6567.650.030.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.100.1031.0331.03-0.04-0.04
Morehead St.OVC0.100.1022.2222.22-0.05-0.05
Murray St.OVC0.100.1082.7682.760.060.06
NorthwesternB100.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.100.1030.0030.00-0.04-0.04
Northern ArizonaBSky0.100.1013.3313.33-0.07-0.07
UMKCWAC0.100.1027.5927.59-0.04-0.04
WashingtonP120.100.1062.5062.500.020.02
SouthernSWAC0.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
DavidsonA100.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
George WashingtonA100.100.1045.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.100.1010.7110.71-0.07-0.07
UC IrvineBW0.090.0948.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Washington St.P120.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
SyracuseACC0.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
Colorado St.MWC0.090.0932.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Fresno St.MWC0.090.0963.3363.330.020.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.090.0912.5012.50-0.07-0.07
PittsburghACC0.090.0925.0025.00-0.05-0.05
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.090.0940.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.090.0945.4545.45-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.080.0877.4277.420.040.04
TowsonCAA0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
DelawareCAA0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
DrakeMVC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Appalachian St.SB0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
PennIvy0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
CreightonBE0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
WisconsinB100.080.0845.4545.45-0.01-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
DukeACC0.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
OregonP120.070.0764.7164.710.020.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
MississippiSEC0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Seton HallBE0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
South CarolinaSEC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
VCUA100.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0788.2488.240.050.05
PepperdineWCC0.070.0716.1316.13-0.05-0.05
RiceCUSA0.070.0717.2417.24-0.05-0.05
USC UpstateASun0.070.0710.7110.71-0.06-0.06
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
VirginiaACC0.070.0793.9493.940.060.06
Air ForceMWC0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
GonzagaWCC0.070.0788.2488.240.050.05
Alabama St.SWAC0.070.0725.8125.81-0.03-0.03
OaklandHorz0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
ToledoMAC0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Little RockSB0.060.0620.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.060.0680.6580.650.030.03
Texas St.SB0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
DrexelCAA0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
ElonCAA0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Montana St.BSky0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
BrownIvy0.050.0538.4638.46-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0526.9226.92-0.02-0.02
CornellIvy0.050.0540.7440.74-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.050.0523.0823.08-0.03-0.03
HarvardIvy0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
VermontAE0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Ball St.MAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
IowaB100.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
PortlandWCC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0530.7730.77-0.02-0.02
UTSACUSA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
XavierBE0.050.0584.8584.850.040.04
Ohio St.B100.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
DaytonA100.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
DuquesneA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
LSUSEC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
RichmondA100.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Saint LouisA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
MarylandB100.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
RadfordBSth0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.050.0544.4444.44-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
ButlerBE0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0524.2424.24-0.02-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
HoustonAmer0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MaineAE0.050.0513.3313.33-0.03-0.03
MichiganB100.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
New HampshireAE0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
South FloridaAmer0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
TulaneAmer0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
WoffordSC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.059.689.68-0.04-0.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0515.6215.62-0.03-0.03
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
MaristMAAC0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
NJITASun0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Coastal CarolinaSB0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
HamptonMEAC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
High PointBSth0.030.0340.7440.74-0.00-0.00
LouisvilleACC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
AlbanyAE0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
BryantNEC0.030.039.689.68-0.02-0.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
LehighPat0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
MonmouthMAAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
IndianaB100.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
AuburnSEC0.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
CanisiusMAAC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
La SalleA100.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.020.0239.3939.39-0.01-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
SienaMAAC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
Cal PolyBW0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Green BayHorz0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.020.0261.7661.760.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.020.0261.7661.760.010.01
SeattleWAC0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
TempleAmer0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
UMBCAE0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
BYUWCC0.020.0270.5970.590.010.01
ClemsonACC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
HawaiiBW0.020.0253.5753.570.000.00
IdahoBSky0.020.0268.9768.970.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
PacificWCC0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
UC DavisBW0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01