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Through games of Mar 11, 2018.

Texas Tech

Conference:B12
Expected RPI:23.0
Current RPI:23
Expected SOS:53
Current SOS:53
Current Record:24-9
Expected Record:24-9
Current Conf Record:12-8
Expected Conf Record:12-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:8-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:12-1
Expected OOC Record:12-1
Expected OOC RPI:41
Expected OOC SOS:253


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-923.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Texas Tech.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10South Alabama (270.0)SBH75-50W100%0.0
11-14Maine (338.0)AEH83-44W100%0.0
11-18Boston College (96.0)ACCN64-75W100%0.0
11-19Northwestern (168.0)B10N49-85W100%0.0
11-22Wofford (129.0)SCH79-56W100%0.0
11-25Savannah St. (197.0)MEACH103-69W100%0.0
11-30Seton Hall (31.0)BEN89-79L0%0.0
12-5Nevada (17.0)MWCH82-76W100%0.0
12-13Kennesaw St. (301.0)ASunH82-53W100%0.0
12-16Rice (328.0)CUSAH73-53W100%0.0
12-19Florida Atlantic (275.0)CUSAH90-54W100%0.0
12-22Abilene Christian (260.0)SlndH74-47W100%0.0
12-29Baylor (68.0)B12H77-53W100%0.0
1-2Kansas (5.0)B12A73-85W100%0.0
1-6Kansas St. (53.0)B12H74-58W100%0.0
1-9Oklahoma (49.0)B12A75-65L0%0.0
1-13West Virginia (27.0)B12H72-71W100%0.0
1-17Texas (51.0)B12A67-58L0%0.0
1-20Iowa St. (144.0)B12A70-52L0%0.0
1-23Oklahoma St. (88.0)B12H75-70W100%0.0
1-27South Carolina (90.0)SECA63-70W100%0.0
1-31Texas (51.0)B12H73-71W100%0.0
2-3TCU (26.0)B12A71-83W100%0.0
2-7Iowa St. (144.0)B12H76-58W100%0.0
2-10Kansas St. (53.0)B12A47-66W100%0.0
2-13Oklahoma (49.0)B12H88-78W100%0.0
2-17Baylor (68.0)B12A59-57L0%0.0
2-21Oklahoma St. (88.0)B12A79-71L0%0.0
2-24Kansas (5.0)B12H72-74L0%0.0
2-26West Virginia (27.0)B12A84-74L0%0.0
3-3TCU (26.0)B12H79-75W100%0.0
3-8Texas (51.0)B12N73-69W100%0.0
3-9West Virginia (27.0)B12N63-66L0%0.0

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Texas Tech's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Texas Tech's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Texas Tech.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.


Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Texas TechB1226.3926.3972.8772.8712.0712.07
West VirginiaB125.445.4470.9770.972.282.28
TexasB125.395.3960.0060.001.081.08
KansasB124.034.0381.2581.252.522.52
Oklahoma St.B123.963.9658.0658.060.640.64
Kansas St.B123.963.9670.9770.971.661.66
BaylorB123.963.9655.1755.170.410.41
TCUB123.943.9470.0070.001.571.57
OklahomaB123.943.9458.6258.620.680.68
Iowa St.B123.933.9341.3841.38-0.68-0.68
RiceCUSA1.571.5717.8617.86-1.01-1.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA1.571.5733.3333.33-0.52-0.52
NorthwesternB101.561.5646.6746.67-0.10-0.10
Savannah St.MEAC1.561.5644.8344.83-0.16-0.16
MaineAE1.561.5613.7913.79-1.13-1.13
NevadaMWC1.561.5681.8281.820.990.99
Boston CollegeACC1.541.5457.5857.580.230.23
South AlabamaSB1.541.5441.3841.38-0.27-0.27
South CarolinaSEC1.541.5451.6151.610.050.05
WoffordSC1.541.5462.0762.070.370.37
Abilene ChristianSlnd1.521.5246.1546.15-0.12-0.12
Kennesaw St.ASun1.521.5229.6329.63-0.62-0.62
Seton HallBE1.521.5264.5264.520.440.44
Texas A&MSEC0.210.2162.5062.500.050.05
LipscombASun0.180.1868.9768.970.070.07
Northwestern St.Slnd0.170.178.008.00-0.14-0.14
Wichita St.Amer0.170.1778.1278.120.100.10
ButlerBE0.170.1760.6160.610.040.04
FIUCUSA0.160.1637.9337.93-0.04-0.04
North TexasCUSA0.160.1643.3343.33-0.02-0.02
NJITASun0.140.1442.8642.86-0.02-0.02
MississippiSEC0.140.1437.5037.50-0.04-0.04
ArkansasSEC0.140.1467.6567.650.050.05
AlabamaSEC0.140.1455.8855.880.020.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.140.1424.1424.14-0.07-0.07
Texas SouthernSWAC0.140.1444.1244.12-0.02-0.02
TulsaAmer0.140.1461.2961.290.030.03
VanderbiltSEC0.140.1437.5037.50-0.04-0.04
Tennessee St.OVC0.140.1446.4346.43-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.140.1461.2961.290.030.03
KentuckySEC0.140.1470.5970.590.060.06
PittsburghACC0.140.1425.0025.00-0.07-0.07
UTSACUSA0.130.1353.3353.330.010.01
USC UpstateASun0.130.1310.7110.71-0.10-0.10
CharlotteCUSA0.130.1317.8617.86-0.08-0.08
Louisiana TechCUSA0.120.1248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
CreightonBE0.120.1264.5264.520.040.04
New HampshireAE0.120.1227.5927.59-0.05-0.05
MichiganB100.120.1279.4179.410.070.07
Florida St.ACC0.120.1264.5264.520.030.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.120.1236.6736.67-0.03-0.03
VirginiaACC0.110.1193.9493.940.100.10
AmericanPat0.110.1120.0020.00-0.07-0.07
Central ArkansasSlnd0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.100.1051.7251.720.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.100.1030.7730.77-0.04-0.04
UTEPCUSA0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
MercerSC0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.100.1037.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.100.1046.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
WisconsinB100.100.1045.4545.45-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.100.1062.5062.500.020.02
TennesseeSEC0.100.1075.7675.760.050.05
XavierBE0.100.1084.8584.850.070.07
New MexicoMWC0.100.1054.5554.550.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.090.0940.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.090.0924.2424.24-0.05-0.05
Boise St.MWC0.090.0973.3373.330.040.04
GeorgiaSEC0.090.0954.5554.550.010.01
UNLVMWC0.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
VCUA100.090.0954.5554.550.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.090.0915.6215.62-0.06-0.06
FordhamA100.090.0929.0329.03-0.04-0.04
Oral RobertsSum0.090.0928.5728.57-0.04-0.04
NebraskaB100.090.0968.7568.750.030.03
DukeACC0.090.0978.7978.790.050.05
Arizona St.P120.090.0964.5264.520.030.03
SyracuseACC0.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.080.0880.0080.000.050.05
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
JacksonvilleASun0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
Old DominionCUSA0.080.0878.1278.120.050.05
UABCUSA0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
Texas St.SB0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
North FloridaASun0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
StetsonASun0.080.0828.5728.57-0.03-0.03
Southern MissCUSA0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
SamfordSC0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Georgia St.SB0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
MinnesotaB100.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
TroySB0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.080.0877.4277.420.040.04
VermontAE0.080.0878.7978.790.040.04
East Tennessee St.SC0.080.0871.8871.880.030.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.080.0880.6580.650.050.05
Tennessee TechOVC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
YaleIvy0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.070.0716.6716.67-0.05-0.05
Houston BaptistSlnd0.070.0710.7110.71-0.06-0.06
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.070.0743.7543.75-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.070.0761.7661.760.020.02
HartfordAE0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
GeorgetownBE0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.070.0758.6258.620.010.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.070.0730.0030.00-0.03-0.03
DePaulBE0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
WashingtonP120.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
ProvidenceBE0.070.0761.7661.760.020.02
GonzagaWCC0.070.0788.2488.240.050.05
ClemsonACC0.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
WyomingMWC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
MaristMAAC0.070.0719.3519.35-0.04-0.04
San Diego St.MWC0.070.0767.7467.740.020.02
UCFAmer0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.060.0612.5012.50-0.04-0.04
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.060.0663.3363.330.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
AlbanyAE0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
BinghamtonAE0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
FurmanSC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
HamptonMEAC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Stony BrookAE0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
UMass LowellAE0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
UMBCAE0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
VMISC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Michigan St.B100.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
MassachusettsA100.050.0539.3939.39-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
MarylandB100.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
OregonP120.050.0564.7164.710.010.01
PortlandWCC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
SouthernSWAC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
USCP120.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
IndianaB100.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
RutgersB100.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0526.9226.92-0.02-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.050.0523.0823.08-0.03-0.03
North CarolinaACC0.050.0571.4371.430.020.02
AuburnSEC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
BelmontOVC0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
MarquetteBE0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
SMUAmer0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
South DakotaSum0.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
St. BonaventureA100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
St. John'sBE0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
VillanovaBE0.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
George WashingtonA100.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0512.5012.50-0.03-0.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0513.3313.33-0.03-0.03
PepperdineWCC0.050.0516.1316.13-0.03-0.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Washington St.P120.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.040.0432.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Fresno St.MWC0.040.0463.3363.330.010.01
Miami FLACC0.040.0470.9770.970.020.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.040.0465.6265.620.010.01
Notre DameACC0.040.0457.5857.580.010.01
OaklandHorz0.040.0457.5857.580.010.01
San Jose St.MWC0.040.0410.3410.34-0.04-0.04
South Dakota St.Sum0.040.0480.0080.000.030.03
StanfordP120.040.0454.5554.550.000.00
ToledoMAC0.040.0466.6766.670.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.040.0448.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
CampbellBSth0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
LamarSlnd0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0332.0032.00-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
HofstraCAA0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
SeattleWAC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
South FloridaAmer0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
CaliforniaP120.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.036.676.67-0.02-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
High PointBSth0.030.0340.7440.74-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Little RockSB0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
TulaneAmer0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
BrownIvy0.020.0238.4638.46-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.020.023.333.33-0.02-0.02
IllinoisB100.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Loyola MDPat0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
PurdueB100.020.0282.3582.350.020.02
ValparaisoMVC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
LSUSEC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
MonmouthMAAC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
WagnerNEC0.020.0270.0070.000.010.01
ColgatePat0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
DavidsonA100.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
HawaiiBW0.020.0253.5753.570.000.00
IdahoBSky0.020.0268.9768.970.010.01
PacificWCC0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
RadfordBSth0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
RichmondA100.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
UC DavisBW0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01