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Through games of Mar 11, 2018.


Tulane

Conference:Amer
Expected RPI:175.0
Current RPI:175
Expected SOS:97
Current SOS:97
Current Record:14-17
Expected Record:14-17
Current Conf Record:5-14
Expected Conf Record:5-14
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-2
Current OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC RPI:77
Expected OOC SOS:185



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-17175.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Tulane.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10LIU Brooklyn (232.0)NECH102-96W100%0.0
11-13Southeastern Louisiana (150.0)SlndH89-66W100%0.0
11-17Colorado St. (234.0)MWCN80-53W100%0.0
11-19Fordham (290.0)A10N55-63W100%0.0
11-22Miami OH (159.0)MACH80-59W100%0.0
11-26Georgia St. (120.0)SBA70-59L0%0.0
11-29Alcorn St. (348.0)SWACH81-65W100%0.0
12-3North Carolina (4.0)ACCA97-73L0%0.0
12-6Southern (315.0)SWACH95-76W100%0.0
12-10Florida St. (54.0)ACCN72-53L0%0.0
12-18Nicholls St. (145.0)SlndH76-69W100%0.0
12-21South Alabama (270.0)SBH77-73W100%0.0
12-28Temple (52.0)AmerA75-85W100%0.0
12-31Tulsa (89.0)AmerH56-65L0%0.0
1-4SMU (113.0)AmerH73-70W100%0.0
1-9Memphis (106.0)AmerA96-89L0%0.0
1-13Connecticut (123.0)AmerH57-67L0%0.0
1-17Houston (18.0)AmerH81-72W100%0.0
1-20SMU (113.0)AmerA73-62L0%0.0
1-25South Florida (278.0)AmerH75-80L0%0.0
1-31East Carolina (274.0)AmerA69-71W100%0.0
2-4Temple (52.0)AmerH76-83L0%0.0
2-8Tulsa (89.0)AmerA91-89L0%0.0
2-11Houston (18.0)AmerA73-42L0%0.0
2-14East Carolina (274.0)AmerH80-82L0%0.0
2-17Memphis (106.0)AmerH63-68L0%0.0
2-21Wichita St. (16.0)AmerA93-86L0%0.0
2-24South Florida (278.0)AmerA68-79W100%0.0
3-1Cincinnati (6.0)AmerH49-78L0%0.0
3-4UCF (84.0)AmerA60-51L0%0.0
3-8Temple (52.0)AmerN82-77L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Tulane's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Tulane's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Tulane.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
TulaneAmer26.2426.2441.1341.13-4.65-4.65
TempleAmer5.465.4651.7251.720.190.19
MemphisAmer4.014.0159.3859.380.750.75
HoustonAmer4.004.0080.6580.652.452.45
South FloridaAmer3.983.9830.0030.00-1.59-1.59
TulsaAmer3.983.9858.6258.620.690.69
East CarolinaAmer3.953.9532.1432.14-1.41-1.41
SMUAmer3.933.9351.6151.610.130.13
UCFAmer2.522.5258.0658.060.410.41
CincinnatiAmer2.512.5187.8887.881.901.90
Wichita St.Amer2.492.4977.4277.421.361.36
ConnecticutAmer2.422.4241.9441.94-0.39-0.39
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd1.701.7065.5265.520.530.53
SouthernSWAC1.701.7043.3343.33-0.23-0.23
FordhamA101.691.6930.0030.00-0.68-0.68
Florida St.ACC1.691.6963.3363.330.450.45
Georgia St.SB1.671.6767.7467.740.590.59
Nicholls St.Slnd1.671.6762.9662.960.430.43
Alcorn St.SWAC1.661.6625.9325.93-0.80-0.80
LIU BrooklynNEC1.661.6653.1253.120.100.10
Miami OHMAC1.661.6646.6746.67-0.11-0.11
South AlabamaSB1.661.6641.3841.38-0.29-0.29
Colorado St.MWC1.641.6433.3333.33-0.55-0.55
North CarolinaACC1.641.6470.5970.590.670.67
New OrleansSlnd0.280.2842.8642.86-0.04-0.04
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.260.2645.4545.45-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.210.2140.0040.00-0.04-0.04
Central ArkansasSlnd0.190.1950.0050.000.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.190.1953.3353.330.010.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.190.198.008.00-0.16-0.16
ClemsonACC0.170.1771.8871.880.080.08
McNeese St.Slnd0.160.1632.0032.00-0.06-0.06
TroySB0.160.1645.1645.16-0.02-0.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.150.1546.4346.43-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.150.1540.6240.62-0.03-0.03
George WashingtonA100.150.1545.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.150.1530.0030.00-0.06-0.06
LouisvilleACC0.150.1560.6160.610.030.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.140.1412.5012.50-0.10-0.10
Jackson St.SWAC0.140.1433.3333.33-0.05-0.05
Alabama A&MSWAC0.130.139.689.68-0.11-0.11
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.130.1380.6580.650.080.08
Alabama St.SWAC0.130.1325.8125.81-0.06-0.06
VillanovaBE0.130.1388.2488.240.100.10
Appalachian St.SB0.130.1341.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.130.1361.2961.290.030.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
LSUSEC0.130.1354.8454.840.010.01
Little RockSB0.120.1220.0020.00-0.07-0.07
DrexelCAA0.120.1237.5037.50-0.03-0.03
Notre DameACC0.120.1257.5857.580.020.02
ArkansasSEC0.120.1267.6567.650.040.04
DukeACC0.120.1278.7978.790.070.07
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.110.1180.0080.000.070.07
Texas SouthernSWAC0.110.1144.1244.12-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.110.1153.5753.570.010.01
RutgersB100.110.1142.4242.42-0.02-0.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.100.1012.5012.50-0.08-0.08
CharlotteCUSA0.100.1017.8617.86-0.07-0.07
Illinois St.MVC0.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Texas St.SB0.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Oklahoma St.B120.100.1057.5857.580.020.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.100.1015.6215.62-0.07-0.07
Central ConnecticutNEC0.100.1043.7543.75-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.100.1028.5728.57-0.04-0.04
UT ArlingtonSB0.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.100.1058.6258.620.020.02
Boise St.MWC0.100.1073.3373.330.050.05
AuburnSEC0.100.1078.1278.120.060.06
Northern IowaMVC0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.100.1037.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Miami FLACC0.100.1070.9770.970.040.04
Wake ForestACC0.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
SyracuseACC0.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
BryantNEC0.100.109.689.68-0.08-0.08
Houston BaptistSlnd0.080.0810.7110.71-0.07-0.07
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.080.0844.4444.44-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
Iowa St.B120.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
ManhattanMAAC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
UMBCAE0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.080.0832.3532.35-0.03-0.03
FIUCUSA0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
WyomingMWC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.080.0878.1278.120.040.04
PennIvy0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
South CarolinaSEC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
WisconsinB100.080.0845.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.080.0855.8855.880.010.01
DavidsonA100.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
HartfordAE0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
Saint LouisA100.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
SamfordSC0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
ArizonaP120.070.0779.4179.410.040.04
LibertyBSth0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
Loyola MDPat0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
FairfieldMAAC0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
WagnerNEC0.070.0770.0070.000.030.03
AlabamaSEC0.070.0755.8855.880.010.01
MercerSC0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
VirginiaACC0.070.0793.9493.940.060.06
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0630.7730.77-0.02-0.02
CampbellBSth0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.056.676.67-0.05-0.05
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
RadfordBSth0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
MaineAE0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
AkronMAC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
DuquesneA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0524.2424.24-0.03-0.03
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
Kansas St.B120.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
NevadaMWC0.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
New MexicoMWC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0510.3410.34-0.04-0.04
ToledoMAC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Utah St.MWC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
UTSACUSA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
VCUA100.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.050.0539.3939.39-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
OregonP120.050.0564.7164.710.020.02
West VirginiaB120.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
ElonCAA0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
HowardMEAC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
IndianaB100.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
FloridaSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
RichmondA100.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
PittsburghACC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
ProvidenceBE0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
TCUB120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
USCP120.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
Michigan St.B100.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
AlbanyAE0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
SienaMAAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
UABCUSA0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
IdahoBSky0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
SeattleWAC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
YaleIvy0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
ValparaisoMVC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
ColoradoP120.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
DePaulBE0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Fort WayneSum0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
George MasonA100.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
HarvardIvy0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
IllinoisB100.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
IowaB100.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Western IllinoisSum0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
WinthropBSth0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Boston UniversityPat0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
CaliforniaP120.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
ColgatePat0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.030.0377.4277.420.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0326.9226.92-0.01-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
MississippiSEC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
MontanaBSky0.030.0377.4277.420.010.01
NebraskaB100.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
OklahomaB120.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
RiceCUSA0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
St. John'sBE0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UMKCWAC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
BinghamtonAE0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
BrownIvy0.020.0238.4638.46-0.01-0.01
NJITASun0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
UMass LowellAE0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
UCLAP120.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
XavierBE0.020.0284.8584.850.020.02
BucknellPat0.020.0273.5373.530.010.01
MichiganB100.020.0279.4179.410.010.01
PortlandWCC0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
WoffordSC0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00