UCLA

Conference:	P12
Expected RPI:	36.0
Current RPI:	36
Expected SOS:	48
Current SOS:	48
Current Record:	21-11
Expected Record:	21-11
Current Conf Record:	12-8
Expected Conf Record:	12-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	6-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	5-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	6-0
Current OOC Record:	9-3
Expected OOC Record:	9-3
Expected OOC RPI:	42
Expected OOC SOS:	62

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
21-11	36.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UCLA.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Georgia Tech (161.0)	ACC	N	63-60	W	100%
11-15	Central Arkansas (223.0)	Slnd	H	106-101	W	100%
11-17	South Carolina St. (331.0)	MEAC	H	96-68	W	100%
11-20	Creighton (44.0)	BE	N	100-89	L	0%
11-21	Wisconsin (114.0)	B10	N	70-72	W	100%
11-26	UC Irvine (119.0)	BW	H	87-63	W	100%
11-29	Cal St. Bakersfield (220.0)	WAC	H	75-66	W	100%
12-3	Detroit (318.0)	Horz	H	106-73	W	100%
12-9	Michigan (12.0)	B10	A	78-69	L	0%
12-16	Cincinnati (6.0)	Amer	H	63-77	L	0%
12-19	South Dakota (91.0)	Sum	H	85-82	W	100%
12-23	Kentucky (10.0)	SEC	N	75-83	W	100%
12-29	Washington St. (179.0)	P12	H	96-82	W	100%
12-31	Washington (71.0)	P12	H	74-53	W	100%
1-4	Stanford (86.0)	P12	A	107-99	L	0%
1-6	California (216.0)	P12	A	84-107	W	100%
1-11	Utah (59.0)	P12	H	83-64	W	100%
1-13	Colorado (82.0)	P12	H	59-68	L	0%
1-18	Oregon St. (137.0)	P12	A	69-63	L	0%
1-20	Oregon (72.0)	P12	A	94-91	L	0%
1-25	California (216.0)	P12	H	70-57	W	100%
1-27	Stanford (86.0)	P12	H	89-73	W	100%
2-3	USC (34.0)	P12	H	82-79	W	100%
2-8	Arizona (13.0)	P12	A	74-82	W	100%
2-10	Arizona St. (66.0)	P12	A	88-79	L	0%
2-15	Oregon St. (137.0)	P12	H	75-68	W	100%
2-17	Oregon (72.0)	P12	H	86-78	W	100%
2-22	Utah (59.0)	P12	A	84-78	L	0%
2-25	Colorado (82.0)	P12	A	80-76	L	0%
3-3	USC (34.0)	P12	A	72-83	W	100%
3-8	Stanford (86.0)	P12	N	88-77	W	100%
3-9	Arizona (13.0)	P12	N	78-67	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

UCLA's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

UCLA's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against UCLA.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
UCLA	P12	26.26	26.26	64.84	64.84	7.80	7.80
Stanford	P12	5.37	5.37	56.67	56.67	0.72	0.72
Arizona	P12	4.03	4.03	81.25	81.25	2.52	2.52
USC	P12	4.02	4.02	71.88	71.88	1.76	1.76
Oregon	P12	3.93	3.93	65.62	65.62	1.23	1.23
California	P12	3.89	3.89	27.59	27.59	-1.74	-1.74
Colorado	P12	3.85	3.85	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Oregon St.	P12	3.84	3.84	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Utah	P12	3.82	3.82	64.29	64.29	1.09	1.09
Arizona St.	P12	2.46	2.46	63.33	63.33	0.66	0.66
Washington	P12	2.41	2.41	64.52	64.52	0.70	0.70
Washington St.	P12	2.41	2.41	40.00	40.00	-0.48	-0.48
Central Arkansas	Slnd	1.68	1.68	51.61	51.61	0.05	0.05
Michigan	B10	1.61	1.61	78.79	78.79	0.93	0.93
Wisconsin	B10	1.61	1.61	46.88	46.88	-0.10	-0.10
South Carolina St.	MEAC	1.61	1.61	27.59	27.59	-0.72	-0.72
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	1.61	1.61	34.62	34.62	-0.49	-0.49
UC Irvine	BW	1.59	1.59	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Detroit	Horz	1.59	1.59	20.69	20.69	-0.93	-0.93
Cincinnati	Amer	1.56	1.56	87.88	87.88	1.18	1.18
Creighton	BE	1.56	1.56	63.33	63.33	0.42	0.42
Georgia Tech	ACC	1.56	1.56	41.94	41.94	-0.25	-0.25
Kentucky	SEC	1.56	1.56	72.73	72.73	0.71	0.71
South Dakota	Sum	1.56	1.56	75.86	75.86	0.81	0.81
Long Beach St.	BW	0.26	0.26	41.94	41.94	-0.04	-0.04
Denver	Sum	0.22	0.22	46.43	46.43	-0.02	-0.02
Seattle	WAC	0.18	0.18	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.17	0.17	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Xavier	BE	0.17	0.17	84.85	84.85	0.12	0.12
Cal Poly	BW	0.17	0.17	24.14	24.14	-0.09	-0.09
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.17	0.17	62.07	62.07	0.04	0.04
Portland St.	BSky	0.17	0.17	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Purdue	B10	0.16	0.16	82.35	82.35	0.10	0.10
SMU	Amer	0.16	0.16	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.15	0.15	80.00	80.00	0.09	0.09
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.15	0.15	13.33	13.33	-0.11	-0.11
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.15	0.15	15.62	15.62	-0.10	-0.10
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.14	0.14	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
Kansas	B12	0.14	0.14	79.41	79.41	0.08	0.08
Northwestern	B10	0.14	0.14	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Iowa	B10	0.14	0.14	42.42	42.42	-0.02	-0.02
Ohio St.	B10	0.14	0.14	75.00	75.00	0.07	0.07
Florida	SEC	0.14	0.14	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Connecticut	Amer	0.14	0.14	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
Texas A&M	SEC	0.14	0.14	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.13	0.13	83.33	83.33	0.09	0.09
St. John's	BE	0.12	0.12	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Hawaii	BW	0.12	0.12	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
UC Riverside	BW	0.12	0.12	24.14	24.14	-0.06	-0.06
San Francisco	WCC	0.12	0.12	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Montana	BSky	0.12	0.12	77.42	77.42	0.07	0.07
Nebraska	B10	0.12	0.12	68.75	68.75	0.04	0.04
North Carolina	ACC	0.12	0.12	71.43	71.43	0.05	0.05
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.12	0.12	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Michigan St.	B10	0.12	0.12	87.88	87.88	0.09	0.09
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.12	0.12	70.00	70.00	0.05	0.05
Utah Valley	WAC	0.11	0.11	65.52	65.52	0.03	0.03
Idaho	BSky	0.11	0.11	68.97	68.97	0.04	0.04
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.11	0.11	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.10	0.10	24.14	24.14	-0.05	-0.05
Butler	BE	0.10	0.10	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Green Bay	Horz	0.10	0.10	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Fort Wayne	Sum	0.10	0.10	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.10	0.10	8.00	8.00	-0.08	-0.08
San Diego St.	MWC	0.10	0.10	67.74	67.74	0.04	0.04
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.10	0.10	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Providence	BE	0.10	0.10	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
Yale	Ivy	0.10	0.10	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Saint Mary's	WCC	0.10	0.10	84.85	84.85	0.07	0.07
Missouri	SEC	0.10	0.10	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.10	0.10	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
UNLV	MWC	0.10	0.10	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.10	0.10	14.29	14.29	-0.07	-0.07
UC Davis	BW	0.10	0.10	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
DePaul	BE	0.10	0.10	35.48	35.48	-0.03	-0.03
Wichita St.	Amer	0.10	0.10	78.12	78.12	0.05	0.05
Pacific	WCC	0.10	0.10	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Colorado St.	MWC	0.09	0.09	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
New Mexico	MWC	0.09	0.09	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.09	0.09	75.76	75.76	0.05	0.05
Maryland	B10	0.09	0.09	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Alabama	SEC	0.09	0.09	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Oklahoma	B12	0.09	0.09	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
UMKC	WAC	0.08	0.08	27.59	27.59	-0.04	-0.04
Chicago St.	WAC	0.08	0.08	3.33	3.33	-0.08	-0.08
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.08	0.08	20.00	20.00	-0.05	-0.05
Lamar	Slnd	0.08	0.08	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
IUPUI	Horz	0.08	0.08	32.14	32.14	-0.03	-0.03
Wright St.	Horz	0.08	0.08	71.88	71.88	0.03	0.03
Milwaukee	Horz	0.08	0.08	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Utah St.	MWC	0.08	0.08	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.08	0.08	32.35	32.35	-0.03	-0.03
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Mississippi	SEC	0.08	0.08	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Fresno St.	MWC	0.07	0.07	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
Boston College	ACC	0.07	0.07	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Drake	MVC	0.07	0.07	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.07	0.07	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Saint Louis	A10	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Wofford	SC	0.07	0.07	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.07	0.07	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Marquette	BE	0.07	0.07	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
VCU	A10	0.07	0.07	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Baylor	B12	0.07	0.07	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.07	0.07	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.07	0.07	80.00	80.00	0.04	0.04
Virginia	ACC	0.07	0.07	93.94	93.94	0.06	0.06
UCF	Amer	0.07	0.07	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.07	0.07	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Wyoming	MWC	0.07	0.07	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.07	0.07	44.12	44.12	-0.01	-0.01
Northeastern	CAA	0.07	0.07	68.75	68.75	0.03	0.03
Georgia	SEC	0.07	0.07	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Illinois	B10	0.07	0.07	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Temple	Amer	0.07	0.07	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.07	0.07	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Houston	Amer	0.07	0.07	78.79	78.79	0.04	0.04
Memphis	Amer	0.07	0.07	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
Georgia Southern	SB	0.06	0.06	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
BYU	WCC	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Hampton	MEAC	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	12.50	12.50	-0.04	-0.04
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Kentucky	Horz	0.05	0.05	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
Oakland	Horz	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Western Illinois	Sum	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Arkansas	SEC	0.05	0.05	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Central Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.05	0.05	16.67	16.67	-0.03	-0.03
Duke	ACC	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.05	0.05	24.24	24.24	-0.03	-0.03
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.05	0.05	10.71	10.71	-0.04	-0.04
Georgetown	BE	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Idaho St.	BSky	0.05	0.05	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Seton Hall	BE	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Villanova	BE	0.05	0.05	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.02	-0.02
Gonzaga	WCC	0.05	0.05	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
East Tennessee St.	SC	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Jacksonville	ASun	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Miss	CUSA	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Abilene Christian	Slnd	0.05	0.05	44.44	44.44	-0.01	-0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Clemson	ACC	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Little Rock	SB	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Marist	MAAC	0.05	0.05	19.35	19.35	-0.03	-0.03
Mercer	SC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Morehead St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	22.22	22.22	-0.03	-0.03
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Notre Dame	ACC	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Quinnipiac	MAAC	0.05	0.05	36.36	36.36	-0.01	-0.01
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
San Diego	WCC	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.05	0.05	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Southern Utah	BSky	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Wake Forest	ACC	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Louisville	ACC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Tulsa	Amer	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Indiana	B10	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Minnesota	B10	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Penn St.	B10	0.05	0.05	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Rutgers	B10	0.05	0.05	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Akron	MAC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Boise St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	73.33	73.33	0.02	0.02
Lehigh	Pat	0.05	0.05	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
LSU	SEC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.05	0.05	76.67	76.67	0.02	0.02
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Princeton	Ivy	0.05	0.05	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Santa Clara	WCC	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
UMBC	AE	0.05	0.05	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Delaware	CAA	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
College of Charleston	CAA	0.03	0.03	77.42	77.42	0.01	0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	6.67	6.67	-0.02	-0.02
Furman	SC	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.03	0.03	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Murray St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	82.76	82.76	0.02	0.02
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Presbyterian	BSth	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
San Jose St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	10.34	10.34	-0.02	-0.02
TCU	B12	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Toledo	MAC	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Winthrop	BSth	0.03	0.03	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Longwood	BSth	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
North Dakota	BSky	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
USC Upstate	ASun	0.03	0.03	10.71	10.71	-0.02	-0.02
UT Arlington	SB	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
UTEP	CUSA	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Belmont	OVC	0.02	0.02	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.02	0.02	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Incarnate Word	Slnd	0.02	0.02	12.50	12.50	-0.02	-0.02
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.02	0.02	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.02	0.02	32.00	32.00	-0.01	-0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.02	0.02	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
New Orleans	Slnd	0.02	0.02	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
North Texas	CUSA	0.02	0.02	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.02	0.02	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Syracuse	ACC	0.02	0.02	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.02	0.02	30.77	30.77	-0.01	-0.01
Nevada	MWC	0.02	0.02	79.41	79.41	0.01	0.01
Rider	MAAC	0.02	0.02	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
UMass Lowell	AE	0.02	0.02	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.02	0.02	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.02	0.02	9.68	9.68	-0.02	-0.02
Auburn	SEC	0.02	0.02	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.02	0.02	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
East Carolina	Amer	0.02	0.02	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Harvard	Ivy	0.02	0.02	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Monmouth	MAAC	0.02	0.02	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.02	0.02	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Richmond	A10	0.02	0.02	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
South Florida	Amer	0.02	0.02	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
Texas	B12	0.02	0.02	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Troy	SB	0.02	0.02	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Tulane	Amer	0.02	0.02	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Vermont	AE	0.02	0.02	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
West Virginia	B12	0.02	0.02	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Western Carolina	SC	0.02	0.02	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01