UIC

Conference:	Horz
Expected RPI:	315.0
Current RPI:	315
Expected SOS:	183
Current SOS:	183
Current Record:	4-25
Expected Record:	4-25
Current Conf Record:	1-16
Expected Conf Record:	1-16
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-7
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	2-11
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	2-7
Current OOC Record:	3-9
Expected OOC Record:	3-9
Expected OOC RPI:	279
Expected OOC SOS:	217

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
4-25	315.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UIC.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-9	Drake (174.0)	MVC	H	59-61	L	0%
11-16	Eastern Illinois (291.0)	OVC	H	66-86	L	0%
11-20	Northwestern (123.0)	B10	H	58-93	L	0%
11-25	San Diego (156.0)	WCC	N	74-70	W	100%
11-26	Louisiana Tech (62.0)	CUSA	N	78-103	L	0%
11-27	Wagner (218.0)	NEC	N	76-94	W	100%
12-4	SMU (53.0)	Amer	H	65-73	L	0%
12-7	Loyola Chicago (288.0)	MVC	A	73-70	L	0%
12-14	Southeast Missouri St. (257.0)	OVC	A	69-75	W	100%
12-20	UC Riverside (319.0)	BW	A	57-56	L	0%
12-23	Colorado St. (182.0)	MWC	A	74-61	L	0%
12-28	Illinois (70.0)	B10	N	74-60	L	0%
1-2	Valparaiso (184.0)	Horz	A	87-72	L	0%
1-7	Youngstown St. (237.0)	Horz	H	62-75	L	0%
1-12	Wright St. (173.0)	Horz	A	58-53	L	0%
1-16	Milwaukee (131.0)	Horz	H	63-67	L	0%
1-19	Green Bay (58.0)	Horz	H	64-69	L	0%
1-22	Cleveland St. (91.0)	Horz	H	64-74	L	0%
1-25	Oakland (181.0)	Horz	A	76-75	L	0%
1-29	Detroit (230.0)	Horz	A	74-68	L	0%
2-1	Valparaiso (184.0)	Horz	H	46-70	L	0%
2-5	Green Bay (58.0)	Horz	A	81-70	L	0%
2-13	Cleveland St. (91.0)	Horz	A	73-53	L	0%
2-15	Youngstown St. (237.0)	Horz	A	59-56	L	0%
2-18	Detroit (230.0)	Horz	H	59-65	L	0%
2-21	Oakland (181.0)	Horz	H	71-86	L	0%
2-25	Milwaukee (131.0)	Horz	A	58-80	W	100%
3-1	Wright St. (173.0)	Horz	H	61-68	L	0%
3-4	Valparaiso (184.0)	Horz	A	73-63	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

UIC's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

UIC's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against UIC.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
UIC	Horz	26.40	26.40	15.89	15.89	-18.01	-18.01
Valparaiso	Horz	6.05	6.05	44.44	44.44	-0.67	-0.67
Milwaukee	Horz	4.61	4.61	61.29	61.29	1.04	1.04
Wright St.	Horz	4.51	4.51	53.33	53.33	0.30	0.30
Oakland	Horz	4.42	4.42	31.03	31.03	-1.68	-1.68
Cleveland St.	Horz	4.39	4.39	60.71	60.71	0.94	0.94
Detroit	Horz	4.36	4.36	32.14	32.14	-1.56	-1.56
Youngstown St.	Horz	4.36	4.36	37.04	37.04	-1.13	-1.13
Green Bay	Horz	4.35	4.35	76.00	76.00	2.26	2.26
Eastern Illinois	OVC	1.95	1.95	29.63	29.63	-0.79	-0.79
Illinois	B10	1.84	1.84	56.25	56.25	0.23	0.23
Loyola Chicago	MVC	1.83	1.83	26.67	26.67	-0.86	-0.86
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	1.82	1.82	55.17	55.17	0.19	0.19
Northwestern	B10	1.78	1.78	40.62	40.62	-0.33	-0.33
Drake	MVC	1.78	1.78	44.83	44.83	-0.18	-0.18
Colorado St.	MWC	1.72	1.72	44.83	44.83	-0.18	-0.18
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	1.72	1.72	78.12	78.12	0.97	0.97
San Diego	WCC	1.72	1.72	48.28	48.28	-0.06	-0.06
SMU	Amer	1.72	1.72	70.97	70.97	0.72	0.72
UC Riverside	BW	1.72	1.72	25.00	25.00	-0.86	-0.86
Wagner	NEC	1.72	1.72	62.07	62.07	0.42	0.42
Robert Morris	NEC	0.23	0.23	61.76	61.76	0.05	0.05
Evansville	MVC	0.23	0.23	38.71	38.71	-0.05	-0.05
UCF	Amer	0.23	0.23	37.93	37.93	-0.05	-0.05
Wisconsin	B10	0.22	0.22	78.79	78.79	0.13	0.13
Bradley	MVC	0.22	0.22	37.50	37.50	-0.05	-0.05
Murray St.	OVC	0.21	0.21	59.26	59.26	0.04	0.04
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.20	0.20	48.39	48.39	-0.01	-0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.20	0.20	35.48	35.48	-0.06	-0.06
Illinois St.	MVC	0.19	0.19	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
UMKC	WAC	0.19	0.19	34.48	34.48	-0.06	-0.06
Indiana	B10	0.19	0.19	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.19	0.19	76.47	76.47	0.10	0.10
Austin Peay	OVC	0.18	0.18	35.71	35.71	-0.05	-0.05
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.18	0.18	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.17	0.17	38.71	38.71	-0.04	-0.04
Ball St.	MAC	0.17	0.17	10.71	10.71	-0.14	-0.14
Toledo	MAC	0.17	0.17	81.25	81.25	0.11	0.11
Indiana St.	MVC	0.17	0.17	67.74	67.74	0.06	0.06
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.17	0.17	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Iowa	B10	0.16	0.16	61.29	61.29	0.04	0.04
Pepperdine	WCC	0.15	0.15	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.15	0.15	70.97	70.97	0.06	0.06
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.15	0.15	31.03	31.03	-0.06	-0.06
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.15	0.15	16.67	16.67	-0.10	-0.10
San Francisco	WCC	0.14	0.14	63.33	63.33	0.04	0.04
Gonzaga	WCC	0.14	0.14	81.82	81.82	0.09	0.09
Missouri St.	MVC	0.14	0.14	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
Ohio	MAC	0.14	0.14	66.67	66.67	0.05	0.05
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.14	0.14	40.62	40.62	-0.03	-0.03
DePaul	BE	0.13	0.13	36.36	36.36	-0.04	-0.04
South Dakota	Sum	0.12	0.12	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
Chicago St.	WAC	0.12	0.12	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.12	0.12	20.69	20.69	-0.07	-0.07
Kent St.	MAC	0.12	0.12	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Tulsa	CUSA	0.12	0.12	63.64	63.64	0.03	0.03
San Diego St.	MWC	0.12	0.12	87.10	87.10	0.09	0.09
Akron	MAC	0.11	0.11	63.64	63.64	0.03	0.03
Saint Louis	A10	0.11	0.11	80.65	80.65	0.07	0.07
Morehead St.	OVC	0.11	0.11	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Wichita St.	MVC	0.11	0.11	100.00	100.00	0.11	0.11
IUPUI	Sum	0.11	0.11	10.34	10.34	-0.09	-0.09
Saint Mary's	WCC	0.11	0.11	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Bowling Green	MAC	0.11	0.11	35.48	35.48	-0.03	-0.03
Connecticut	Amer	0.11	0.11	76.47	76.47	0.06	0.06
South Alabama	SB	0.11	0.11	28.57	28.57	-0.05	-0.05
South Florida	Amer	0.11	0.11	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Western Carolina	SC	0.11	0.11	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Western Michigan	MAC	0.11	0.11	70.97	70.97	0.05	0.05
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.11	0.11	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
San Jose St.	MWC	0.11	0.11	17.24	17.24	-0.07	-0.07
Purdue	B10	0.11	0.11	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.11	0.11	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.10	0.10	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Virginia	ACC	0.09	0.09	82.35	82.35	0.06	0.06
UC Irvine	BW	0.09	0.09	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
St. John's	BE	0.09	0.09	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.09	0.09	67.86	67.86	0.03	0.03
IPFW	Sum	0.09	0.09	67.74	67.74	0.03	0.03
UC Davis	BW	0.09	0.09	24.14	24.14	-0.05	-0.05
Air Force	MWC	0.09	0.09	35.71	35.71	-0.02	-0.02
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.09	0.09	34.48	34.48	-0.03	-0.03
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.09	0.09	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Fresno St.	MWC	0.09	0.09	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Mercer	ASun	0.09	0.09	74.19	74.19	0.04	0.04
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.09	0.09	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
New Mexico	MWC	0.09	0.09	81.82	81.82	0.05	0.05
Utah St.	MWC	0.09	0.09	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.09	0.09	27.59	27.59	-0.04	-0.04
FIU	CUSA	0.09	0.09	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Wyoming	MWC	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0.08	0.08	26.67	26.67	-0.04	-0.04
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.08	0.08	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
UNLV	MWC	0.08	0.08	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Tulane	CUSA	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Memphis	Amer	0.08	0.08	70.97	70.97	0.03	0.03
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.08	0.08	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
UCLA	P12	0.08	0.08	76.47	76.47	0.04	0.04
Houston	Amer	0.08	0.08	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.08	0.08	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Michigan	B10	0.08	0.08	75.76	75.76	0.04	0.04
Minnesota	B10	0.08	0.08	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.08	0.08	73.53	73.53	0.04	0.04
Fairfield	MAAC	0.06	0.06	21.88	21.88	-0.04	-0.04
Harvard	Ivy	0.06	0.06	86.21	86.21	0.05	0.05
Belmont	OVC	0.06	0.06	71.88	71.88	0.03	0.03
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	13.79	13.79	-0.04	-0.04
Cal Poly	BW	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.06	0.06	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.06	0.06	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Hawaii	BW	0.06	0.06	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.06	0.06	13.79	13.79	-0.04	-0.04
Long Beach St.	BW	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.06	0.06	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.06	0.06	73.53	73.53	0.03	0.03
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.06	0.06	55.17	55.17	0.01	0.01
Southern Utah	BSky	0.06	0.06	3.57	3.57	-0.05	-0.05
BYU	WCC	0.06	0.06	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Drexel	CAA	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.06	0.06	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Iona	MAAC	0.06	0.06	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Kentucky	SEC	0.06	0.06	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
LIU Brooklyn	NEC	0.06	0.06	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.06	0.06	73.53	73.53	0.03	0.03
Northern Kentucky	ASun	0.06	0.06	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Pacific	WCC	0.06	0.06	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Portland	WCC	0.06	0.06	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.06	0.06	16.13	16.13	-0.04	-0.04
Santa Clara	WCC	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.06	0.06	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Stony Brook	AE	0.06	0.06	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
UT Arlington	SB	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
North Texas	CUSA	0.06	0.06	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Texas St.	SB	0.06	0.06	20.69	20.69	-0.03	-0.03
California	P12	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.06	0.06	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
UNC Greensboro	SC	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
UTEP	CUSA	0.05	0.05	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
Cincinnati	Amer	0.05	0.05	81.82	81.82	0.03	0.03
Georgetown	BE	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.05	0.05	14.81	14.81	-0.04	-0.04
Louisville	Amer	0.05	0.05	85.29	85.29	0.04	0.04
Miami OH	MAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.05	0.05	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Rutgers	Amer	0.05	0.05	34.38	34.38	-0.02	-0.02
Temple	Amer	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
VMI	BSth	0.05	0.05	55.56	55.56	0.01	0.01
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	25.93	25.93	-0.03	-0.03
Charlotte	CUSA	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Davidson	SC	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Missouri	SEC	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Northeastern	CAA	0.05	0.05	34.38	34.38	-0.02	-0.02
Rice	CUSA	0.05	0.05	17.86	17.86	-0.03	-0.03
Southern Miss	CUSA	0.05	0.05	80.65	80.65	0.03	0.03
Western Illinois	Sum	0.03	0.03	25.93	25.93	-0.01	-0.01
Western Kentucky	SB	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Montana St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Seattle	WAC	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Albany	AE	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Boise St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Bryant	NEC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Colorado	P12	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Denver	Sum	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.03	0.03	46.15	46.15	-0.00	-0.00
La Salle	A10	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Lafayette	Pat	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.03	0.03	10.71	10.71	-0.02	-0.02
Monmouth	MAAC	0.03	0.03	34.38	34.38	-0.01	-0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.03	0.03	48.15	48.15	-0.00	-0.00
Nevada	MWC	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Penn	Ivy	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.03	0.03	30.30	30.30	-0.01	-0.01
Rider	MAAC	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.03	0.03	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.03	0.03	30.77	30.77	-0.01	-0.01
Stetson	ASun	0.03	0.03	22.58	22.58	-0.02	-0.02
Vermont	AE	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Weber St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Campbell	BSth	0.03	0.03	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
Fordham	A10	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.03	0.03	42.42	42.42	-0.00	-0.00
Portland St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Arkansas	SEC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Hofstra	CAA	0.03	0.03	30.30	30.30	-0.01	-0.01
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
TCU	B12	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
Texas A&M	SEC	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Texas Pan American	WAC	0.03	0.03	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Brown	Ivy	0.03	0.03	51.85	51.85	0.00	0.00
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.03	0.03	24.00	24.00	-0.01	-0.01
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.03	0.03	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
East Carolina	CUSA	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Longwood	BSth	0.03	0.03	14.29	14.29	-0.02	-0.02
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.03	0.03	34.62	34.62	-0.01	-0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	20.69	20.69	-0.02	-0.02
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	48.15	48.15	-0.00	-0.00
Oklahoma	B12	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Oregon	P12	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Southern	SWAC	0.03	0.03	55.17	55.17	0.00	0.00
Stanford	P12	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.03	0.03	55.17	55.17	0.00	0.00
UTSA	CUSA	0.03	0.03	22.22	22.22	-0.01	-0.01